Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ivomm]

Dailly, 4 hours and hourly BTC price charts all start looking bullish again and I think we are going back to 12.000$. If bulls will be strong enough and brake the resistance at 12.000$, then the next stop could on this year ATH which is 14.000$. From a few days, charts with different time intervals and indicators show misleading readings. Today for the first time all of them turned out to strongly bullish. Here is the four hours chart.

I also think today was an important day but from another point of view: Since 2017 each 30%+ crash stopped with a 25% bounce for 1-2 days. On the next days 12% are lost and there are two options. 1. Bulls try to force a bull run to the previous AYH, which always ends by a more prolonged sideways and deeper crashes. 2. The price consolidates with low volume around this price range. This is very important for the stable and organic growth henceforth. Fortunately, this is what is happening right now.

BTC volatility is also beautiful because give endless opportunities to earn an additional 20 or 30% every couple of days. Of course, is not so easy to time the market perfectly but I think that BTC shows a lot of signs before starting to crash. I rather sell high and wait for the pullback with peace of mind and try to find the best entry point possible. Is just very hard to be calm if we lose 30% in a few hours. That is why HODL is not my strategy this year and I am quite successful with trading.

This year is perhaps the best example why hodling is way more profitable than trading. We had 4.5x raise of the price with 2 very short lived dips 20%+. If you are telling me that you predicted both dips and didn't sleep to catch the bottoms, then you are the best trader in the world. But the truth is that 99.99% of the traders didn't sold just at the moments before the price dropped. In all cases hodlers had the biggest profit. However, I must warn you that I sense some complacency and over confidence, that may play a bad game in your future trades. Based on the probability theory and the testimony of many traders, 10 successfull trades may and will be completely annihilated by the 11th, even if your are genious. And then you will be vulnerable to the negative emotions and make other bad choices which may bring a substantial loss. Your philosophy is proven to be wrong by the founders of the HODL movement. Bitcoin is not a shitcoin to be traded for 10% profit and then dumped. If you think so, better go to Poloniex or Binance and trade shitcoins.

I respectfully disagree. I am significantly better off for trading with a part of my stash - what I call the play money. At heart I'm a hodler, but I can't always (ever?) buy as much as I'd like, so a bit of trading on the side helps a lot. As to the 11th losing trade annihilating the previous 10 winning ones, I think it boils down to being careful and sticking to a reasonable quantitative plan. You win, you take it off the table. You lose, you lose and eat it and go on.

Of course, looking for exact tops and bottoms is a recipe for disaster. My point is, you don't need to catch the extremes to be profitable.

Disclosure: I've got a green long position which I'm getting a bit impatient to close, and a smaller short position, in the red, which I'm hoping to make a bit larger averaging up, ladder style. When the two positions are equal, my net position stays put, more or less, since one makes up for the other. Then it's a game of consuming the winning side and then the other one, aiming to reach the null point (0 long, 0 short).

Many shorters burned this year, and you know it. For 6 months they kept losing money. Finally, there were some profit at the last drop, but who cares. If you are "hodler" and try to make some profit with 10% of your stash, this is just a child game. Ok, lets think about my points. Let's say that at 4500 you had 10% profit. You took it, right? Then patiently you waited for a dip to 3K-ish but it didn't happen and never will be. Then at 13K you enter again and made another 10% profit. You took it, alright? At the same time the hodlers made 4.5x profit without doing anything! Ok, now, let's see the other situation. You want to increase your bitcoin stash and sold multiple times in 2018 with some 10-20% or more increase of the stash. Let's say you doubled your bitcoins in 2018 with 10 trades. And in 2019 you sold at 5K. At the same time the price wen't 4.5K from the bottom, so again you have 2.5x less coins now, if you were just hodling. So what is that you 'respecfully disagree"? But if you think you are smarter than the holders, go ahead, nobody is stopping you. I am just warning the n00bs that think too high of themselves because of 2-3 successfull trades. Bitcoin is not for wanna-be-quick-millionaires n00bs. Bitcoins is for those who value it more than the fiat, tether and the other shitcoins.

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[aesma]

If you're 99% certain that the price will go significantly down from now, in the next few months, why not sell some of your stash, and keep that fiat to buy more later ? The risk is minimal when the price is high like right now.

I know many here talk about buying BTC regularly, but personally I don't earn enough fiat to invest significantly in BTC. I must already invest more than 20% of my salary in my "401K" (because my employer doubles it, and it's a sound investment), so after that, not much is left.

[realr0ach]

Many shorters burned this year

I clicked some thread the other day about a guy that lost his life savings attempting to short Dashcoin when it was artificially rigged upwards in that pump and dump Roger Ver was involved in.  He kept piling on more and more as the trade went against him.  I almost shorted the hell out of that thing too from being so stupidly overpriced.  I actually know how to manage risk, but still would have lost a bunch.  Glad I didn't.  Morale of the story:  never short fake, rigged markets (aka bitcoin and all other digital scamcoins).

[aesma]

I just learned a new leftist retard word:  "TERF".  "Trans exclusionary radical feminist".  So it's basically Lauda.  The origin of this word seems to revolve around the fact that most women have a mental disorder where they believe their lives are extremely important for no reason, the world revolves around them, and other people only exist to worship them or facilitate their existance as servants and if you're not doing either of those actions, then you should kill yourself because your existence causes them inconvenience.  

A bit like incels, or even most men in general, then ?

[d_eddie]

This year is perhaps the best example why hodling is way more profitable than trading. We had 4.5x raise of the price with 2 very short lived dips 20%+. If you are telling me that you predicted both dips and didn't sleep to catch the bottoms, then you are the best trader in the world. But the truth is that 99.99% of the traders didn't sold just at the moments before the price dropped. In all cases hodlers had the biggest profit. However, I must warn you that I sense some complacency and over confidence, that may play a bad game in your future trades. Based on the probability theory and the testimony of many traders, 10 successfull trades may and will be completely annihilated by the 11th, even if your are genious. And then you will be vulnerable to the negative emotions and make other bad choices which may bring a substantial loss. Your philosophy is proven to be wrong by the founders of the HODL movement. Bitcoin is not a shitcoin to be traded for 10% profit and then dumped. If you think so, better go to Poloniex or Binance and trade shitcoins.

I respectfully disagree. I am significantly better off for trading with a part of my stash - what I call the play money. At heart I'm a hodler, but I can't always (ever?) buy as much as I'd like, so a bit of trading on the side helps a lot. As to the 11th losing trade annihilating the previous 10 winning ones, I think it boils down to being careful and sticking to a reasonable quantitative plan. You win, you take it off the table. You lose, you lose and eat it and go on.

Of course, looking for exact tops and bottoms is a recipe for disaster. My point is, you don't need to catch the extremes to be profitable.

Disclosure: I've got a green long position which I'm getting a bit impatient to close, and a smaller short position, in the red, which I'm hoping to make a bit larger averaging up, ladder style. When the two positions are equal, my net position stays put, more or less, since one makes up for the other. Then it's a game of consuming the winning side and then the other one, aiming to reach the null point (0 long, 0 short).

Many shorters burned this year, and you know it. For 6 months they kept losing money. Finally, there were some profit at the last drop, but who cares. If you are "hodler" and try to make some profit with 10% of your stash, this is just a child game. Ok, lets think about my points. Let's say that at 4500 you had 10% profit. You took it, right? Then patiently you waited for a dip to 3K-ish but it didn't happen and never will be. Then at 13K you enter again and made another 10% profit. You took it, alright? At the same time the hodlers made 4.5x profit without doing anything! Ok, now, let's see the other situation. You want to increase your bitcoin stash and sold multiple times in 2018 with some 10-20% or more increase of the stash. Let's say you doubled your bitcoins in 2018 with 10 trades. And in 2019 you sold at 5K. At the same time the price wen't 4.5K from the bottom, so again you have 2.5x less coins now, if you were just hodling. So what is that you 'respecfully disagree"?

I see your point, ivomm, but do you see mine? By trading, even at "child game" level, I can increase my stash - which I couldn't if I had to buy with fiat that simply isn't always available.

By the way, I'm not an eager shorter. The rule "don't short the corn" is deeply ingrained, more so in a bull market, but in general she's shown us time and again how brutal her reversals can be. The matter is I often need to short so I can hedge and make some progress even while the long is suffering.

Your example isn't convincing to me. I am not patiently waiting for a dip to 3k-ish. I wrote that off before 6k. It's all SOMA, so I might be wrong, as almost always happens with SOMA analysis, but still. Similarly, I don't need to wait for 13k to enter. In fact, I'm in play mode already. But I can wait for my short to get in the green, which I am confident will happen soon, or at least less red, which would allow me to eat a small loss for piece of mind - after cashing out the long, I would be in profit anyway.

Of course, what I'm saying is personal opinion/experience and doesn't necessarily apply to other people.

But if you think you are smarter than the holders, go ahead, nobody is stopping you. I am just warning the n00bs that think too high of themselves because of 2-3 successfull trades. Bitcoin is not for wanna-be-quick-millionaires n00bs. Bitcoins is for those who value it more than the fiat, tether and the other shitcoins.

No quick millionaire wannabe here, and I don't think I'm smarter. I just happened to find a system that works for me. It grows my stash slowly but with low risk. Risk more, earn more. It's a matter of personal choice. Noobs will be noobs, and they generally need a few lessons before finding what works for them. I've already had a fair share of "classes", so it's only fair I capitalize on them a bit now.

[Phil_S]

HM does a 2014-15 fractal overlay quite frequently. Does anybody or would anybody have a 2015-16 fractal potential overlay? This would potentially mirror what we are expected to see up to 12 months after the halving in 2020.

I’d be interested to see how the price is predicted to play out, if as HM predicts we hit the halving at or around $12,000 (matching the 2014-15 fractal).

It's hard to compare very slow 2015-16 period to crazy 2019.

I prefer 2017 vs 2019 overlay:

[d_eddie]

If you're 99% certain that the price will go significantly down from now, in the next few months, why not sell some of your stash, and keep that fiat to buy more later ? The risk is minimal when the price is high like right now.

Who wants to be roached? Not me. I do place little opposing bets trying to balance them out until the sum pays off, but touching my main stash? No way.

I know many here talk about buying BTC regularly, but personally I don't earn enough fiat to invest significantly in BTC. I must already invest more than 20% of my salary in my "401K" (because my employer doubles it, and it's a sound investment), so after that, not much is left.

There. We all have different conditions and motives. Fiat, like corn, is hard to come by. At least, there are no fiat trees round here unfortunately  

[realr0ach]

I just learned a new leftist retard word:  "TERF".  "Trans exclusionary radical feminist".  So it's basically Lauda.  The origin of this word seems to revolve around the fact that most women have a mental disorder where they believe their lives are extremely important for no reason, the world revolves around them, and other people only exist to worship them or facilitate their existance as servants and if you're not doing either of those actions, then you should kill yourself because your existence causes them inconvenience.  

A bit like incels, or even most men in general, then ?

Not even close.  The reason most women have these selective sociopathy-like traits and insist their lives are absurdly important for no reason is because it's beneficial to passing on their genes by having their kids acquire access to more resources, and whatever is effective at passing genes keeps spreading more and more.  You can see this phenomenon in society every day, like how women expect men to open doors for them, give them things, always pay for meals, or in the old days, be their literal doormat and put their jacket on a puddle of mud for the woman to walk on.

A man would feel bad inconveniencing or causing harm to other people for no reason with things like this, but the selective sociopathy/sense of high importance for no reason gene in women is real.  They usually do not act so sociopathic to other women, but sometimes do, usually mostly just to men.  The clinical term is probably in-group bias, but I call it selective sociopathy.  Women having these retarded sense of entitlement/sociopathy genes allows them to acquire more resources than they would otherwise have, giving their kids a higher chance of survival, then their kids are sociopaths too.

[bkbirge]

I know many here talk about buying BTC regularly, but personally I don't earn enough fiat to invest significantly in BTC. I must already invest more than 20% of my salary in my "401K" (because my employer doubles it, and it's a sound investment), so after that, not much is left.

Your employer does a match up to 20%? That's insanely good, so good I'm guessing I misinterpreted your comment. Mine does 4% match.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Where is your hat?

In the locker as mine 🤭

[kenzawak]

153% would be nice... for a start

https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/1146251937886556162

"Reward of buying pullbacks

Previously examined how Bitcoin often experienced 30%+ pullbacks during last uptrend

But we didn't discuss how buying these pullbacks can reap rewards

The average gain after a 30%+ pullback was over 153% profit before the next strong pullback"

[mindrust]

Many shorters burned this year

I clicked some thread the other day about a guy that lost his life savings attempting to short Dashcoin when it was artificially rigged upwards in that pump and dump Roger Ver was involved in.  He kept piling on more and more as the trade went against him.  I almost shorted the hell out of that thing too from being so stupidly overpriced.  I actually know how to manage risk, but still would have lost a bunch.  Glad I didn't.  Morale of the story:  never short fake, rigged markets (aka bitcoin and all other digital scamcoins).

R0ach joins the bitcoin club!

Bullish. Let's make him a hat! 

[kenzawak]

This event I’m at is pretty nutty, yo. 

Nutty seems to be the right word here.

[aesma]

I know many here talk about buying BTC regularly, but personally I don't earn enough fiat to invest significantly in BTC. I must already invest more than 20% of my salary in my "401K" (because my employer doubles it, and it's a sound investment), so after that, not much is left.

Your employer does a match up to 20%? That's insanely good, so good I'm guessing I misinterpreted your comment. Mine does 4% match.

The match is up to a fixed amount, and my salary is not that high (around the median in my country).

[d_eddie]

Nutty seems to be the right word here.

There. You ruined my sMerit piggybank again. Aren't you ashamed?

(The quoted pic from TheBawb would have been totally worthy - at least as one of mic's peecs - but legendaries are best left alone by people dealing with sMerits on a hand-to-mouth basis.)

[Icygreen]

https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2019/07/venezuela-maduro-orders-country-s-largest-bank-to-accept-its-petro-cryptocurrency/

Bargaining stage suspected    

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Nutty seems to be the right word here.

Very creative indeed. 🤭
I mean it's really is creative whoever thought of denting this LOL

[realr0ach]

R0ach joins the bitcoin club!

Bullish. Let's make him a hat!  

Look, two Chinese guys jacking off to their plans of forcing you into their cashless society, Chinese social credit score slavery system where everything is tracked and monitored on a blockchain.  You didn't think UBI was just free money with no strings, did you?  It's purpose is to remove all of your rights.  First they give you the "free" money (on a blockchain where you're tracked in realtime), then they start to add more and more stipulations as to what you can do or say or have your money denied.  

Want to practice the 1st or 2nd amendment?  Those will be cause for having your money not sent to you.  Then once they bait everyone into using the system, they'll try to claim all other forms of money are illegal.  Even if you earned the money it will be turned off by saying or doing the wrong thing.  This is why all forms of digital scamcoins have to be boycotted entirely and always insist on physical metals as money.  Anything to do with digital scamcoins is them trying to get their foot in the door.

[jojo69]

Exactly, I am running 5760x1080 on the main battlestation and I can edge to edge with said wristflick, makes for slow sniping however.

What's your fps poison of choice?

meh, I'm old

A little insurgency or OG CS once in a while, mainly playing Warthunder these days actually, it's a love hate thing though, especially the planes, you wait half a day for a match in sim, and sticks are so nerfed in realistic that it's almost not fun.

[jojo69]

Little OFF topic.

Do you know what is it?

core memory obviously