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dee moo???
I guess it's "the mood"...
People here are mostly "drunk" with their 10-100X gains and think that it would continue, essentially, forever (until btc is 1-10mil).
Well, when it comes to my own representations, I am not counting future potential profits as if they were in the bank, so if you ever read my calculations of profits or even my calculations of what I plan to do, I largely base my assessments of my doing good based on progress that has already been made or current price rather than projections of future price, which in my mind are far from a given, but we can still anticipate that past bullish price performance (especially recent bullish price performance) has made the odds of UPwards price movement to become much more likely than they were previously.
For example, few of us had expected over a 3x upwards BTC price movement in less than 3 months, and even after such 3x price movement occurred, many of us were bracing ourselves for a possible 50% price correction or even greater, but again we are back above $13k.. which is even more bullish than we had anticipated... so those price movements, and even the more than $1,500 price increase in the past 48 hours should provide some comfort regarding bullish scenarios and even negating some bearish scenarios, even though the vast majority of us realize that there is almost nothing that is a given, except for the price movement that has already happened, and surely we have cause to celebrate what has already happened, in spite of what might happen, good, bad or ugly.
I wouldn't mind that at all, but I give this scenario maybe 10% probability.
Again, I don't know what you are saying exactly, because some of the representations made were based on price movements that already occurred, and I think that if we label a price target, and in your example it was $1million to $10million, I doubt that anyone was banking on those kinds of numbers any time soon in the next several years. Some guys have been talking about $50k and $100k, and even that is merely a set of probabilities in the coming years, rather than a given.... so sure it is one thing to be drunk with gains that have already been made, and another thing to bank on future gains. If the gains have already been made, then they could be cashed out today or surely they run a risk of losing value, so I doubt that any guy is oblivious to those kinds of risks by keeping a decent amount of value in BTC.
Much more likely is the next peak at 35-300K (most likely around 150K), followed by a multiyear proper whooping.
O..k. Perhaps. You are not really saying anything different than any other bullish person in this thread, are you? And, you might even be placing higher odds on achieving such numbers? Seems like a lot of us have difficulties putting exact expectations on such numbers, or even an exact timeline, but there remains decent comfort to see BTC to continue to perform with upwards bullishness and good news that continues to make those kinds of numbers seem reasonable, even in the next few years, if not sooner (like tomorrow... just kidding).
What if such whooping will end up not the usual 80-85%, but 95% lower?
200k back to 10k? A proper teeth gnashing would ensue and most people would sell, most likely closer to the lows than highs.
O.k. that seems to be in the realm of possible expectations too... but I would imagine that most would tentatively conjecture that future corrections might not be greater than 85%... but of course, we have to be prepared for larger extremes, which likely most long term bitcoiners already have been through that drill several times and realize that it is something to prepare for both financially and psychologically.
I had this experience before (when Internet boom turned to bust). There were literally no bids for some stocks. Could it happen with bitcoin?
I don't know.
I think that we know that, but recent BTC price performance has still been very good, and even news about BTC fundamentals has continued to be very good, too... so a lot of the bullishness has been aligned, even though bad scenarios can happen.. which is not the current state that we find ourselves.
however, for now, you are right, let's enjoy dee moo.
That's the spirit!!!!!! We should be in a time of excitement and thrill regarding where we are at. Of course, we can prepare for negative, which always should be the case, but currently, we are in a very good situation.. with prices bouncing above $13k, even if prices correct to $7k in the coming months, there seems to be ongoing upwards and seemingly bullish BTC price pressures, at the moment.
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