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Question: When will we see a new ATH? (Credit to: Biodom)
2019 - 14 (9.3%)
Early 2020 - 33 (21.9%)
Late 2020 - 44 (29.1%)
Early 2021 - 13 (8.6%)
Late 2021 - 24 (15.9%)
2022 - 4 (2.6%)
2023 - 0 (0%)
2024 - 4 (2.6%)
After 2024 - 3 (2%)
Never - 12 (7.9%)
Total Voters: 151

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21429588 times)
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July 17, 2019, 12:08:34 AM

 https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/16/libra-in-messenger-whatsapp/

Shitcoin scammers gonna scam.  Cheesy

"Marcus also didn’t clearly answer Senator Toomey’s question of why the Libra Association is considered a not-for-profit organization if it will pay out interest to members."
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July 17, 2019, 12:11:53 AM

Well I did my part guys. Bought a whopping 0.1BTC.
That should stop the rot.

Wishful thinking and delusions of grandeur.

Hey.. .do what you can do.

I think that several of us might be playing around with those kinds of ongoing small numbers that also can add up to a lot of value in the process of stacking.

I recall in about mid-to-late 2015, I was setting up my various buy and sell orders, and even playing around with $5 increments and I could only authorize myself to sell very small amounts, because some of my BTC portfolio had buy amounts that averaged something like $500 which was way more than the then BTC price of about mid $250-ish... so I authorized myself to sell such small amounts that were based on purchases that I had made that were sufficiently below the then BTC price.

My then girlfriend would ridicule me on a regular basis that I was wasting my time with such small amounts of selling and then subsequently buying.   I kept telling her that it adds up, and really I am practicing and also generating a kind of insurance that is based on several calculations that include the size of my total BTC portfolio and also how much I make on paper when the price goes up .. but in the end, the goal was to both provide downside insurance and to stack sats (even though such "stacking sats" expression was not then in vogue).

Yes, and even after my laddered sell/buy apprentiship I kept being careful not to put the stack at risk and also being happy with as I call it, "Dust collecting".  Cheesy After all, it makes 10% or something like that over a year... .

What do u mean 10% a year?

I don't mean to answer for Ludwig Von, but I believe that I understand what he meant by 10% a year.

Ultimately one of the most common occurrences with bitcoin is that it continues to be volatile to both the upside and the downside, so people who ladder trades tend to be able to stack sats, which can rise to the level of increasing the number of your bitcoins in the neighborhood of 10% per year.. assuming a kind of volatility and assuming that when the price goes up and down that you are measuring, more or less from the same price points during time 1 and time 2.

Of course, these kinds of measurements might need to be averaged over several years because it could take a few years for bitcoin to return to a price point that it was a few years earlier.  Also, if the BTC price goes down, then your value in dollars would likely be higher, but you would also have more BTC, and if the price of BTC goes up you would have more value in dollars because of price appreciation, however, if you engage in a relatively successful laddering, you would have accumulated more BTC overall, since in some manners, you would be attempting to measure your wealth in the amount of BTC that you would be able to accumulate at various price points, even though there remains a bit of a moving target in the measuring, like I already mentioned in terms of how long it might take for BTC prices to return to earlier price points.

Now, if you are merely gambling with your BTC stash or trying to spout out that you can make more money by trying to time the market (as you seem to be describing yourself as able to do.. and likely wrongly, because you come off as a fucking FUD spreading bearass troll), then in theory you might be suggesting that you could make way more money, but in practice, the vast majority of normal people have difficulties either timing the market or being able to meaningfully make money by trying to time the market.

Laddering can be a more assured mechanism to stack sats, whether you are able to achieve 10% in a year or if you might end up with much more modest results.. depending on some of the systematic ways that the laddering might be set up.. in terms of intervals and/or quantities.

Personally, I doubt that I make anything near 10% in a year, and likely my averages would be around 3% to 5% per year depending on how much price movement (especially back and forth) happens during any year and even maybe averaging over several years might give a better kind of overall indication regarding earning performance, consistency of performance or if such laddering might provide some other kind of value beyond mere returns, but instead providing a kind of peace of mind (which tends to be my main reason for doing it) in regards to being better able to deal with what seems to be near inevitable ongoing BTC price volatility.
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July 17, 2019, 12:15:56 AM


What does the 2017 vs 2019 one look like now?

Irrelevant.  

It's normally a four year cycle, so we aren't in 2017, but we might be rhyming with 2015...

Not now rhyming with 2015. That one has been broken.

It might be good news, but as I said before a few months ago,  a too-strong rally at this stage might be bad news for the future. The reason is that exponential rises always trap a lot of late buyers at various levels on the way up, and it often means they are shaken out over a long bear phase. The shape of the chart puts new interim lows back on the map ,  and could delay any future ATH by some time.

I know that I sufficiently make fun of folks for the battle of the fractal, but I would suggest that we are in a kind of correction that seems sufficiently within the parameters of the early 2016 correction after $500.. and thereby, after floating around in this neighborhood, there could be another effort to breach $13,880 in a few months.. but hey, that might be me, and you surely seem to be speculating about a much deeper and longer correction from here, and surely today's action, including our so far inability to recover does seem to support such a possible situation.

...
Of course, if BTC prices were to get into the sub $5k arena, then I am surely going to have to consider whether I need to restructure some of my lower buy orders in order that I do not run out of money for buying... .. sub $5k does seem a bit unlikely but you never know.

There is some good support at 6.4k , so sub 5k is not likely (and at least not until the middle of next year).

If it gets under 5K , probably best to not look for a year or two. That would be the return of winter.  

Hopefully new support levels can be gradually built up in the next month or so. A new support above 7k would be a positive. Time will tell.

Sure, fair enough.

Without really battling you about numbers, it can be quite difficult to get an assessment while we are still seeming to be in a downward trajectory without any meaningful bounce...

I am thinking that surely it is going to take some time to break below $8k to even bring the breaking of $7k into question... but whatever, I would feel a lot better to see whether we get any kind of meaningful recovery or bounce in the next few days and maybe within a week... so otherwise, I likely agree with you that a bounce anywhere above $7k would be bullish, too... even though I don't seem to be as optimistic as you that $7k is so easily reached.. but with the amount of plunge today, even I might start to question myself.. to the extent that any of my predictions matter anyhow, because I tend to follow the same buying on the way down behavior even if my opinion might change a bit regarding likelihood of down or up.
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July 17, 2019, 12:32:28 AM
Last edit: July 17, 2019, 01:00:01 AM by JayJuanGee

... but more likely jbreher ...

What The Fuck -- exactly -- are you insinuating, you yammering diarrhea-mouth?

y u  gett so worked up bout lil ting-il-lieees?

Jeez, jbearbreher!!  

Well, if'n you're going to cast aspersions, you oughta be truthful, and ready to back up your gross invective. Anything less would be uncivilized.

Largely, I think that I am fair enough to you, jbreher.

No. Your attempt to deflect is forestalled. You are not wiggling out on this.

You made a veiled accusation that I was in the employ of the US Government in order to derail any cryptocurrency progress. You tried to say it, while still giving yourself an out should you be called on it. Go fuck yourself, JJG.

We agree to disagree.

I believe that I am way too nice  to you, and you believe that I am a BIG MEANIE.

Not a big meanie, but someone who will stoop so low as to intentionally mis-characterize others in order to try to claim some sort of 'victory'.

I think that you are reading way the fucking too much into the matter.

I have already defended my point more than what is necessary, so in that regard, I stick with my already established assertion...

Me = normal and nice guy and not a meanie

Jbreher = possible govt agent for a variety of reasons already fairly and sufficiently elaborated (ad nauseam)

 Tongue Tongue


What'd I tell you guys

Zero. You told us zero.

HaHAHAHJAHAHA

gotta agree with you on that part.

Can we make up now, jbreher?

Sure. I can separate my vehemence in deflecting your lies about me from any sort of other personal interaction.

::mwah!::

Now go fuck yourself.

Wink

In spite of your very kind words, above, I still believe that your suggested objective ability to mutually hate upon proudhon is overly embedded with disgruntled sentiments in my direction, but whatever, I am not exactly happy with you either, or your various supposed genuine support of bcash variants.. so in that regard, it might be a bit difficult to become too close in the buddy buddy arena when each of us having our reasons to be concerned (or scaredie cat) about dee udder.





Sure. I can separate my vehemence in deflecting your lies about me from any sort of other personal interaction.

::mwah!::

Now go fuck yourself.

Wink


Is it thursday already?

Stop getting so god damned prematurely excited about the possibility of thursday, Hueristic.

Focus ur selfie, focus.   We have more important battles right in front of us at this exact moment, including the possible imminent death of bitcoin.... seriously, this time..  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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July 17, 2019, 01:24:04 AM

It's normally a four year cycle, so we aren't in 2017, but we might be rhyming with 2015...

"Normally"

It's only been 10 years. Wink

It seems obvious based on the monthly trend and broken levels that we're not replaying 2015. The window closed on that a long time ago. The closest parallel here IMO is summer 2016.
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July 17, 2019, 01:29:23 AM
Merited by RejectedBanana (1)

https://twitter.com/CL207/status/1151229484089012224
Quote
Humans have 10 fingers, every time we go up by base 10, it is a new psychological paradigm. It usually take several month to tackle this resistance, we're 1.3 month in so far.

Also thanks to Phil for the commentary on the blow off tops on this view.
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July 17, 2019, 02:10:40 AM

It's normally a four year cycle, so we aren't in 2017, but we might be rhyming with 2015...

"Normally"

It's only been 10 years. Wink

It seems obvious based on the monthly trend and broken levels that we're not replaying 2015. The window closed on that a long time ago. The closest parallel here IMO is summer 2016.

I been thinking this as well

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July 17, 2019, 02:12:34 AM

Well I did my part guys. Bought a whopping 0.1BTC.
That should stop the rot.

Wishful thinking and delusions of grandeur.

Hey.. .do what you can do.

I think that several of us might be playing around with those kinds of ongoing small numbers that also can add up to a lot of value in the process of stacking.

I recall in about mid-to-late 2015, I was setting up my various buy and sell orders, and even playing around with $5 increments and I could only authorize myself to sell very small amounts, because some of my BTC portfolio had buy amounts that averaged something like $500 which was way more than the then BTC price of about mid $250-ish... so I authorized myself to sell such small amounts that were based on purchases that I had made that were sufficiently below the then BTC price.

My then girlfriend would ridicule me on a regular basis that I was wasting my time with such small amounts of selling and then subsequently buying.   I kept telling her that it adds up, and really I am practicing and also generating a kind of insurance that is based on several calculations that include the size of my total BTC portfolio and also how much I make on paper when the price goes up .. but in the end, the goal was to both provide downside insurance and to stack sats (even though such "stacking sats" expression was not then in vogue).

Yes, and even after my laddered sell/buy apprentiship I kept being careful not to put the stack at risk and also being happy with as I call it, "Dust collecting".  Cheesy After all, it makes 10% or something like that over a year... .

What do u mean 10% a year?

I don't mean to answer for Ludwig Von, but I believe that I understand what he meant by 10% a year.

Ultimately one of the most common occurrences with bitcoin is that it continues to be volatile to both the upside and the downside, so people who ladder trades tend to be able to stack sats, which can rise to the level of increasing the number of your bitcoins in the neighborhood of 10% per year.. assuming a kind of volatility and assuming that when the price goes up and down that you are measuring, more or less from the same price points during time 1 and time 2.

Of course, these kinds of measurements might need to be averaged over several years because it could take a few years for bitcoin to return to a price point that it was a few years earlier.  Also, if the BTC price goes down, then your value in dollars would likely be higher, but you would also have more BTC, and if the price of BTC goes up you would have more value in dollars because of price appreciation, however, if you engage in a relatively successful laddering, you would have accumulated more BTC overall, since in some manners, you would be attempting to measure your wealth in the amount of BTC that you would be able to accumulate at various price points, even though there remains a bit of a moving target in the measuring, like I already mentioned in terms of how long it might take for BTC prices to return to earlier price points.

Now, if you are merely gambling with your BTC stash or trying to spout out that you can make more money by trying to time the market (as you seem to be describing yourself as able to do.. and likely wrongly, because you come off as a fucking FUD spreading bearass troll), then in theory you might be suggesting that you could make way more money, but in practice, the vast majority of normal people have difficulties either timing the market or being able to meaningfully make money by trying to time the market.

Laddering can be a more assured mechanism to stack sats, whether you are able to achieve 10% in a year or if you might end up with much more modest results.. depending on some of the systematic ways that the laddering might be set up.. in terms of intervals and/or quantities.

Personally, I doubt that I make anything near 10% in a year, and likely my averages would be around 3% to 5% per year depending on how much price movement (especially back and forth) happens during any year and even maybe averaging over several years might give a better kind of overall indication regarding earning performance, consistency of performance or if such laddering might provide some other kind of value beyond mere returns, but instead providing a kind of peace of mind (which tends to be my main reason for doing it) in regards to being better able to deal with what seems to be near inevitable ongoing BTC price volatility.

Well gee thanks that’s a really long answer

I was hoping for something like: i loan out my Btc at xxx exchange to margin traders 😅
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July 17, 2019, 02:17:25 AM

Observing $9269. #bringbackfear
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July 17, 2019, 02:17:46 AM


Is it thursday already?

Stop getting so god damned prematurely excited about the possibility of thursday, Hueristic.

Focus ur selfie, focus.   We have more important battles right in front of us at this exact moment, including the possible imminent death of bitcoin.... seriously, this time..  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

I'm becoming far too transparent these days. Smiley

Bitcoin has died 370 times
https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/

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Most Recent Death:
July 15, 2019 – Bitcoin buyers are only fooling themselves – again
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July 17, 2019, 02:22:09 AM


Is it alt season yet?

Asking for a friend

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July 17, 2019, 02:23:00 AM

https://twitter.com/CL207/status/1151229484089012224
Quote
Humans have 10 fingers, every time we go up by base 10, it is a new psychological paradigm. It usually take several month to tackle this resistance, we're 1.3 month in so far.

Also thanks to Phil for the commentary on the blow off tops on this view.


 I don't know what humans you know but i have 8 fingers.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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July 17, 2019, 02:29:02 AM



Bitcoin going down hard
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July 17, 2019, 02:37:25 AM

Well I did my part guys. Bought a whopping 0.1BTC.
That should stop the rot.

Wishful thinking and delusions of grandeur.

Hey.. .do what you can do.

I think that several of us might be playing around with those kinds of ongoing small numbers that also can add up to a lot of value in the process of stacking.

I recall in about mid-to-late 2015, I was setting up my various buy and sell orders, and even playing around with $5 increments and I could only authorize myself to sell very small amounts, because some of my BTC portfolio had buy amounts that averaged something like $500 which was way more than the then BTC price of about mid $250-ish... so I authorized myself to sell such small amounts that were based on purchases that I had made that were sufficiently below the then BTC price.

My then girlfriend would ridicule me on a regular basis that I was wasting my time with such small amounts of selling and then subsequently buying.   I kept telling her that it adds up, and really I am practicing and also generating a kind of insurance that is based on several calculations that include the size of my total BTC portfolio and also how much I make on paper when the price goes up .. but in the end, the goal was to both provide downside insurance and to stack sats (even though such "stacking sats" expression was not then in vogue).

Yes, and even after my laddered sell/buy apprentiship I kept being careful not to put the stack at risk and also being happy with as I call it, "Dust collecting".  Cheesy After all, it makes 10% or something like that over a year... .

What do u mean 10% a year?

I don't mean to answer for Ludwig Von, but I believe that I understand what he meant by 10% a year.

Ultimately one of the most common occurrences with bitcoin is that it continues to be volatile to both the upside and the downside, so people who ladder trades tend to be able to stack sats, which can rise to the level of increasing the number of your bitcoins in the neighborhood of 10% per year.. assuming a kind of volatility and assuming that when the price goes up and down that you are measuring, more or less from the same price points during time 1 and time 2.

Of course, these kinds of measurements might need to be averaged over several years because it could take a few years for bitcoin to return to a price point that it was a few years earlier.  Also, if the BTC price goes down, then your value in dollars would likely be higher, but you would also have more BTC, and if the price of BTC goes up you would have more value in dollars because of price appreciation, however, if you engage in a relatively successful laddering, you would have accumulated more BTC overall, since in some manners, you would be attempting to measure your wealth in the amount of BTC that you would be able to accumulate at various price points, even though there remains a bit of a moving target in the measuring, like I already mentioned in terms of how long it might take for BTC prices to return to earlier price points.

Now, if you are merely gambling with your BTC stash or trying to spout out that you can make more money by trying to time the market (as you seem to be describing yourself as able to do.. and likely wrongly, because you come off as a fucking FUD spreading bearass troll), then in theory you might be suggesting that you could make way more money, but in practice, the vast majority of normal people have difficulties either timing the market or being able to meaningfully make money by trying to time the market.

Laddering can be a more assured mechanism to stack sats, whether you are able to achieve 10% in a year or if you might end up with much more modest results.. depending on some of the systematic ways that the laddering might be set up.. in terms of intervals and/or quantities.

Personally, I doubt that I make anything near 10% in a year, and likely my averages would be around 3% to 5% per year depending on how much price movement (especially back and forth) happens during any year and even maybe averaging over several years might give a better kind of overall indication regarding earning performance, consistency of performance or if such laddering might provide some other kind of value beyond mere returns, but instead providing a kind of peace of mind (which tends to be my main reason for doing it) in regards to being better able to deal with what seems to be near inevitable ongoing BTC price volatility.

Well gee thanks that’s a really long answer

I was hoping for something like: i loan out my Btc at xxx exchange to margin traders 😅

Well your "simplified" perspective did not seem to capture the concept very well, now did it?

It's normally a four year cycle, so we aren't in 2017, but we might be rhyming with 2015...

"Normally"

It's only been 10 years. Wink

It seems obvious based on the monthly trend and broken levels that we're not replaying 2015. The window closed on that a long time ago. The closest parallel here IMO is summer 2016.

I been thinking this as well

Well, both of you are vague as fuck.   There is no real directional aspect of summer 2016 because right at the end of May the BTC price shot above $500, which was largely recovering from a previous price point and then surpassing it, and then by the time we reached August, Bitfinex was discovered to have been "hacked", which caused a major ass correction.. and then a period of uncertainty that lasted a couple of months.  So, which part of summer 2016 are you thinking about?

If anything, I would suggest early 2016 as an explanatory possibility, even though it is frequently difficult to make any kind of exact parallel because we are at a different point of the river when you get into such river.
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July 17, 2019, 02:38:47 AM


Is it thursday already?

Stop getting so god damned prematurely excited about the possibility of thursday, Hueristic.

Focus ur selfie, focus.   We have more important battles right in front of us at this exact moment, including the possible imminent death of bitcoin.... seriously, this time..  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

I'm becoming far too transparent these days. Smiley

Bitcoin has died 370 times
https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/

Quote
Most Recent Death:
July 15, 2019 – Bitcoin buyers are only fooling themselves – again

Yes... but this is the "real" ded this time. Do I need to spell it for you?


This time is different.  Get a grip.

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July 17, 2019, 02:42:29 AM

Well well look not even a dead cat bounce ...
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July 17, 2019, 02:45:30 AM

Well well look not even a dead ded cat bounce ...

FTFY.. smartie panties. 
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July 17, 2019, 02:56:22 AM

So had the email notice to check my quarterly 401k action and this time I actually looked at it. My YTD earnings is at 25.0% which is flat out amazing for a 401k. And then I looked at BTC for YTD and got 25.9%. BTC continues to beat the street.
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July 17, 2019, 03:23:09 AM

Quote
Most Recent Death:
July 15, 2019 – Bitcoin buyers are only fooling themselves – again

Yes... but this is the "real" ded this time. Do I need to spell it for you?


This time is different.  Get a grip.



Yes, confirmed, this time its officially dead.

RIP BTC
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July 17, 2019, 04:30:51 AM

In 2017 we had multiple crashes that led to 40%+ drop from the previous AYH. And the price always recovered. In the last month we had 2 crashes that led to a 33% drop from the AYH at 13800. Should we be worried? I'd say no! On the contrary, we should continue buying and removing bitcoins from exchanges. I still think that we may cross the ATH of 20K this year, but if not, after the halving this is certain. Therefore have no fear, just BTFD!
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