Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

No way would I characterize myself as a professional traitor

Well that’s a relief

Whoops!!!!   what a freudian slip... I went back and fixed that one.

[1713266053]

1713266053

[JayJuanGee]

It's against the rules for merit sources to trade their smerits for anything of value

So this means we can still trade merits for BSV or Beam?



I do hate being out of merits, but it does encourage me to think up ways to farm up more merits. My sMerit supply is so piddly that when they trickle to me its like a weak stream of urine on my head.

I understand the pun about that shit hardly being worth anything - but surely it has not gone to zero yet, so "technically" there is arguable value there, so I wouldn't take any of those kinds of chances, unless you want to be removed as a merit source... which I believe would be the most likely remedy..........

[realr0ach]

Overall in next 20 years Monero, Bitcoin and Gold mining emissions will be quite close together. No huge differences. All will be scarce and none will have problems with to low emission.

There's no such thing as a "scarce" craptocurrency.  Even JayJuanGee can play God and create them out of thin air and there's no Schelling point that forces anyone to use a particular one.  Then even if there was only one craptocurrency, it would fork into several craptocurrencies because their traits are entirely arbitrary and some people would want different attributes than others.  Unlike physical metals, nothing based on artificial scarcity you can endlessly conjure out of thin air has value.

[Paashaas]

Party time.


https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1158191251499429889

[heslo]

This is nice... more of this

[JayJuanGee]

Every up/down, I make a profit.

Wow, you're making a profit every second of every day?

He does not necessarily make profits unless the BTC price moves; therefore, profits are based on volatility.

That is one of the rest assured things in bitcoin is volatility and one of the most rest assured ways of profiting from bitcoins almost inevitable volatility is by laddering... seems that there are a few of us who are advocates for such an approach including jbreher, me and several others.

There might be quite a few reasons to razz jbreher, but this is not one of them.... maybe I should take that back a little bit, I have razzed him a little bit for how he seems to be setting his increments and the amounts of his trades, but largely those are discretionary matters, but even if they are discretionary, they can still be good to bat around, especially if some guys (and perhaps gal) are trying to figure out how to employ such laddering to their own circumstances and advantages and disadvantages to how you set your increments and amounts.

So, even though I have expressed some disagreement regarding the way that jbreher sets his amounts and increments, I have no doubts that if he is actually employing any semblance to what he says then he is likely not misrepresenting that he is profitable on the way up and on the way down... no exaggeration there.

By the way, you are not likely going to get rich from laddering by itself, but it is a pretty decent way to supplement and manage dollar cost average investing, especially after you have already finished most of your bulk accumulation stage and any further BTC accumulation is mostly in the form of a kind of maintenance.    Even though laddering probably should not be used for BIG plays, it can give guys very decent ideas of market dynamics based on ongoing and active participation in short-term price movements and really allow you to both recognize and perhaps to be in place to deviate from laddering and to take advantage of what seems to be opportunistic BTC price locations.

[nutildah]

Every up/down, I make a profit.

Wow, you're making a profit every second of every day?

There might be quite a few reasons to razz jbreher, but this is not one of them....

Meh, anybody can say anything. I really only give credit to people who have the foresight to say something that turns out to be verifiably correct later. Those posts indicate value in the poster. I also find breaking news items to be valuable, along with social banter, and pics of scantily clad women. Posts where people talk about how awesome they are for things they said they have done are of no value.

Having said that, I do value my anonymity, which is why I can't disclose who I write for or what else I do to make ends meet.

[Searing]

Party time.


https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1158191251499429889

Really? I suppose it makes sense in the sense of Hong Kong. Add the US stock market starting to look soft and hell you could very well be correct!

[AlcoHoDL]

Gooooooooood morning WO's!

Observing $11,600 (10,400 €) / BTC.



CCMF!

[jojo69]

well now

[jbreher]

Every up/down, I make a profit.

Wow, you're making a profit every second of every day?

Jeebus cripes, you love to be obtuse, don't you?

Anyone who was following along at home would know exactly what I was talking about.

But not you. Oh no. I write something, and your inner mental amoeba rises up to blind your eyes and ears to what I am conveying.

To unpack it for you: Every cycle of up followed by down (or down followed by up - pick one) in which the swing exceeds my ladder interval, I make a profit.

Did you really not understand exactly what I meant? Are you really that blinded by hatred? Or are you really that dense?

[jbreher]

The only point i was making is that selling, then re-buying, then selling again and re-buying sequences would most likely (in my opinion) result in a lower number of bitcoins than you start with.

Only in the case of monotonically increasing corn price. But corn ain't nothin', if not volatile.

I have absolutely no problem with selling bitcoin (or $$ for btc) in bits and pieces on the way up (or down, depending on your strategy).
It' the trading back and forth that I posit to be an unrealistic tool (when taken alone) to increase the number of btc that someone have.

I realize that you might be playing with small %%, still, i do not wish other people trading away their future wealth by trying to gain a bit of a leverage, hence my post.

There's the key.

[jbreher]

Nice

For those monetary archaeologists trawling this forum in the year 2140, the price of BTC just went from below $11,000 USD (is the USD still a thing in 2140?) to over $11,600 USD in the course of less than three hours.

I'm assuming that is what prompted the comment of 'nice'.

[jbreher]

It's against the rules for merit sources to trade their smerits for anything of value

So this means we can still trade merits for BSV or Beam?



I do hate being out of merits, but it does encourage me to think up ways to farm up more merits. My sMerit supply is so piddly that when they trickle to me its like a weak stream of urine on my head.

Bathe in the nourishing delight of my golden stream, knave.

Well, your retort was kinda funny. Though I guess I stretched my usual 'wet screen' policy a bit more than a bit.

[jbreher]

Having said that, I do value my anonymity, which is why I can't disclose who I write for or what else I do to make ends meet.

You write -- loud 'n' proud -- for sportsbet.io. It's right there in your sidesig, ... whore.

[bitserve]

Nice

For those monetary archaeologists trawling this forum in the year 2140, the price of BTC just went from below $11,000 USD (is the USD still a thing in 2140?) to over $11,600 USD in the course of less than three hours.

I'm assuming that is what prompted the comment of 'nice'.

Yup.

Plus the jump over the resistance happened right after the beautiful weekly candle closing as if everything aligned perfectly to consolidate the bounce from the higher low.

Nice.

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah, I much prefer incremental steps. I’m not in the mood for unsustainable pumps because we all know what happens after them.

I love unsustainable pumps. Make $ on the way up, corn on the way down. Yummy.

nobody can do it on sustainable basis as it does not tell you where it will go.
sooner or later, you would lose.

For some value of 'lose' that has nothing to do with my personal situation.

Can you elaborate, jbreher?  

Yeah. My elaboration is I don't believe that there is any way in which this strategy would cause me to "lose" - counter to biodom's claim.

Every up/down, I make a profit. I can choose whether to take that profit in USD or BTC. Sometimes I flip from one to the other, depending upon cash flow needs.

It is true that this causes me to sell at a price that I expect to be (wildly) exceeded in the future. Accordingly, if corn price goes up monotonically, I will eventually have no corn, and nothing but a gigantic pile o' stinky fiat. Is that 'losing'? Not exactly. Kinda.

However, that pile of stinky fiat is rather stratospheric, given the ratios of play_money:stake I am laddering.

And every up/down gives me a more corn (if I don't take the profit in USD). Accordingly, depending upon the amount of volatility in relation to upward trend, I may never run out on the high side. Losing? Hardly.

So in reality, I was merely trying to soften a retort of 'bullshit' to biodom's blanket 'lose' statement.

The only point i was making is that selling, then re-buying, then selling again and re-buying sequences would most likely (in my opinion) result in a lower number of bitcoins than you start with.

I have absolutely no problem with selling bitcoin (or $$ for btc) in bits and pieces on the way up (or down, depending on your strategy).
It' the trading back and forth that I posit to be an unrealistic tool (when taken alone) to increase the number of btc that someone have.

I realize that you might be playing with small %%, still, i do not wish other people trading away their future wealth by trying to gain a bit of a leverage, hence my post.

Even though you are correct, as the BTC price goes up, you are likely to have fewer bitcoins than what you had when BTC's price was lower, that is part of the process, and that is especially true if the BTC price were to go straight up, without coming down (which surely does not happen in bitcoin, even though sometimes it seems like it does).  

I approximately sell 1% of my stash for every 10% that BTC's price goes up, So for example if any person were to start out with 10BTC at $3k, which would have a value of $30k, and started selling 1% of that BTC stash every time the price went up 10%, then the first sales point would be at $3.3k and if the price went straight up to $20k and you were to continue to sell 1% for every 10% price rise all the way to $20k, then, when the BTC price reached $20k, you will have about 8.26 BTC (valued at $166,740) and $16,700.

If the BTC price does not go straight up, then you will be able to buy more BTC on dips, which seems the more likely scenario, and maybe you will be able to retain close to 10BTC or maybe 9BTC, depending on how your orders are set, but in any event, I don't even see any major problem with the "worse case scenario" of the BTC price going straight up.  Of course, you would have had the 10 BTC, but since you only have 8.26 BTC then those sold BTC would have been worth 1.74 x $20k =  $34,800 if sold at $20k, but you only have $16.7k in cash, but you also had insurance and you can set the amounts of insurance that you want to have to be more or to be less -

And you also might not know where the top is, so for example if the BTC price goes shooting all the way up to $100k without correcting (an unlikely happening) then you would only have 6.964BTC (worth $710k) and $83.2k in cash.  I don't see how  you would be suffering exactly by not having the same 10BTC that you started with.

If you happen to be worried that you might not have some kind of target goal of 10 BTC at $100k, then you would have to stack up more than 10BTC at $3k, and following that same system stacking up 15BTC at $3k would still leave you with more than 10BTC at $100k, assuming that the BTC price were to shoot straight up, and you would have $124k in cash too. hahahaha.,.

Certainly you can custom tailor the system to your liking, so I am having some difficulties understanding the problem with it, exactly, unless you are more inclined to gamble or you have some other system that you like, but a laddering system surely will be conservative while at the same time allow you to profit from volatility and to maintain downside insurance.

[JayJuanGee]

choo choo bitcoin  
time for some consolidation for a few days, please!

Don't tell me that we have another one chasing the train...

Common btcbeliever ... common.. run... run ... run.....


I will hold out my hand... hang onto your suitcase and run... you can do it... you can do it.....  


with a name like "btcbeliever," you should not be chasing the btc train, AmiNOTrite?

[VB1001]

1H


4H


3D




Graphics ichimoku 1H 4H 3 Days

We are riding a train with a large locomotive, the next destination will be $ 15,000?

Good morning BTC 11545 / WO,s

[JayJuanGee]

Overall in next 20 years Monero, Bitcoin and Gold mining emissions will be quite close together. No huge differences. All will be scarce and none will have problems with to low emission.

There's no such thing as a "scarce" craptocurrency.  Even JayJuanGee can play God and create them out of thin air and there's no Schelling point that forces anyone to use a particular one.  Then even if there was only one craptocurrency, it would fork into several craptocurrencies because their traits are entirely arbitrary and some people would want different attributes than others.  Unlike physical metals, nothing based on artificial scarcity you can endlessly conjure out of thin air has value.

I know that you are not as dumb as you are making yourself out to be with this repeated lack of scarcity argument.

You do seem to understand the concept of schelling point, but asserted that there is "no schelling point," which is exactly not true.

Bitcoin is the schelling point and remains the schelling point.  There are a lot of shitcoins trying to become the shelling point, and maybe even within bitcoin the schelling point will change, but that seems quite unlikely and seems to be quite clear that bitcoin is dominant within all of the network effects and various ways that those are measured.

Sure, at some point in the future there might be confusion about schelling point, but currently the only confusion seems to be of your own creation and also the creation of shitcoin pumpers, nocoiners, fence sitters and bitcoin naysayers.... several of you dumbasses will come onto bitcoin sooner or later, but some of you, like yourself roach, will continue to downplay actual facts and lose out on opportunities while continuing to pump a dying asset class, namely PMs such as gold and silver.