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Question: Sept. 21 Closing Price:
$0 - 3 (3.4%)
<$8,000 - 4 (4.6%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 1 (1.1%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 1 (1.1%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 4 (4.6%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 6 (6.9%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 16 (18.4%)
$10,500-$11,000 - 18 (20.7%)
$11,000-$11,500 - 17 (19.5%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 5 (5.7%)
>$12,000 - 7 (8%)
>$20,000 - 5 (5.7%)
Total Voters: 87

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21370338 times)
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JayJuanGee
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September 03, 2019, 04:47:14 AM


I really like the look of this projected chart, especially the next ‘crash’ which shows the price at still over the current ATH. I can definitely live with that.

The problem with that chart is, the other 4 chars I shared were predicting $80-100k as the top, this one says it can go as high as $500k.

Where is the problem? If this one happens to be true and the others not, I won't be having enough btc to enjoy that  $500k. I know I'll be having at least 1, but is it enough? Cool

People will he cashing out to lambos like there is no tomorrow once we go above 50-60k. I find it pretty unrealistic to see it going above $100k in this bull run but who knows... what if...

It seems that you should prepare for both realistically bullish and outlandish scenarios, including the possibility to that we reach $500k in the next cycle.

Based on my knowledge of your BTC holdings, to me, it does seem as if you would be selling too much if you are down to 1 BTC anywhere after (or above) $100k.  

On the other hand, it might end up working out for you to sell higher amounts, yet it seems that you gotta figure out what level is actually comfortable for you, even  if it seems extreme and unlikely to happen.

There were surely some BTC HODLers who thought that $5k was the absolute top in the 2017 cycle and maybe they had only 1BTC after that, but then they were then paralyzed in selling it above $10k too because they felt that they had already sold their stash or shot their wadd by too much and too early.

My current 'feel' is pretty much inline with planB major thesis.
Unless something happens to break it, I would use his graph as a guideline.
Predicted value is 55K at the halving, then slowly moving about 2-3 fold from there toward next halving.
However, going backwards, btc was "supposed' to be at $3700 when it peaked at almost 20K, so it was roughly 6X predicted.
Therefore, the range of the next ATH is most likely 55k-330K with about 180-190K mid range.
When to sell depends on when the true parabola starts going fast.

TL;DR If planB is correct, we are going to 55K-330K as the next ATH. Midrange target of 150-200K is very appealing, albeit I might sell some at 120K. t

I know that I suck.

I am going to just keep with my plan to sell in the ball park of the same amount that I have been, which is about 1% for every 10% rise or 10% for every 100% rise, which has been working out quite well for me, and I never have to worry about either running out of BTC or attempting to time the top (or the bottom for that matter because some of the sale proceeds will go towards buying back BTC on dips, which seem inevitable, even if they are not really occurring during exponential price runs).

I cannot remember who said (I think marcus of augustus?) that once the BTC price rises 100% in less than a month, then you have a pretty good idea that the blow off top has been reached or is coming soon.  I am not sure if I am going to feel inclined to sell a bit more if we reach a "blow off top" of that significance (and even wondering if such a blow off top is going to happen again).  

A question could also be how much of a correction we are going to have.  One problem with making BIG sales amounts is putting a BIG value on any particular exchange, even if it is just for the period in which the BTC prices are high... sometimes it might feel like you are putting too much value on an exchange... and then making sure that your bank does not overreact, either... and the LARGE amount could get locked up, perhaps?  Perhaps?  Some of the BIG liquidation avenues seem to be getting more and more draconian with the passage of time, but if you attempt to clarify ahead of time, then could save some pains, perhaps?  Perhaps?
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September 03, 2019, 04:58:35 AM

.... well if it's this bullish and afternoon in china, just think of how bullish it will be in 4 hours.

Posters are saying that we will retest $420... but the price on stamp is NOT going below $430... so maybe we are going to bounce into the upper $400s before the weekend... no more test of the downward, maybe?  Price seems inclined to go up... at this point....

OMG, bitcoin is now below $420.

.
.
.

Oops, I mean below $10420.

hahahaha

A blast flash from the past.   My how times have changed, so quickly... seemingly so... Is there any investment that is going to take us so far... and remember in early 2014... I may have been short-term correct, but in essence, I was wrong for about two years, because, if I recall correctly, we did not get back above $420 in any kind of material and meaningful long term way until May 2016.. and at that point, sub $500s became a thing of the past - even if we touched upon $500 briefly during the August 2016 Bitfinex flash crash dippening.
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September 03, 2019, 05:03:27 AM

\
~Snip
and it might even end up being on thursdays...   go figure. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy      Wink

Sacrificing Bhai? Tongue

I try to do my part, when I can.     Wink
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September 03, 2019, 05:13:20 AM

\
~Snip
and it might even end up being on thursdays...   go figure. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy      Wink

Sacrificing Bhai? Tongue

I try to do my part, when I can.     Wink
@JayJuanGee sir have a question people used "FTFY" (maybe using easier) what is the full meaning of abbreviation "FTFY".

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September 03, 2019, 05:15:39 AM

One more BTC bull run and that's it. I'll be unemployed, living on passive income just like makrospex.

Merited, but bitcoin does not provide passive income, unless you are into rehypothecation games with blockfi, etc.
BTC is a hard money, but you need to exchange it to soft money to live off of (for now).
It's totally possible to replace a salary with interest payments on Bitcoin holdings without selling.
If you have held for enough years.
The only option I know is Celsius.

yes, blockfi and Celsius, but such interest is not "native" to bitcoin blockchain and comes from a third party re-hypothecating your btc that you "lend" to them.
Essentially, you have to assume that they don't go belly up somehow and would always return your btc.
Do you feel lucky, hodler?
That is true, you must investigate their reputation and trust them.

I've held since 2013, i feel like I earned the reward.  Superhuman patience is required that very few posses.


Freebitco.in gives you %4.08/year with a daily compounding interest. I have some bitcoins there. A bit risky but I am biting the bullet here.

I have been biting at the chomps about whether I should respond to this thread of conversation, and you surely have to weigh your risks when you put some of your BTC stash with some of those third party entities to "earn interest."

I can surely understand the urge to earn more BTC, but there is really no free lunch, and personally, I think that many peeps are going to be way the fuck better off to just accumulate as much BTC as you can by just buying it or any other reasonable way that is available to you without putting your principle at unnecessary risks.

Accordingly, if you are able to accumulate a sufficient amount of BTC, then you can live off of it's likely appreciation in value, which seems to be goddamned likely, especially if you have at least a 5 year timeline (3.5 years has been the historical bare minimum in BTC, but history does not guarantee future results). 

So, I am suggesting to accumulate enough that you can calculate a withdrawal rate that goes to a decent amount of years in your life that is likely to only affect maintenance levels of withdrawal of your BTC but then you can also go on a more aggressive withdrawal rate if you believe that your life is going to end at a certain period of time (which is likely difficult to measure with any kind of precision).

In previous posts, I have gone into detail about what I would consider to be a reasonable maintenance withdrawal rate, which is 1% per quarter.  Anyhow, you can apply BTC quantities to your own life style situation (or expectation of standard of living) to figure out how many BTC you would need in order to be able to sufficiently use BTC income to pay for all of your expenses or to supplement any other income that you might have in order to achieve a maintenance level of withdrawal versus a depletion of principle rate of withdrawal.  Of course the depletion of principle rate of withdrawal is the more aggressive of the withdrawal systems.

Check out Alex mashinsky's background, he's CEO founder of Celsius.  I think putting 30% of holdings with him is a good risk level, if you have alot accumulated. 

My point is that I believe that it is not necessary.  I believe that either BTC is going  to continue to perform sufficiently well, and even if it does not, for me, even if I have to cash in at these prices I am good (as long as prices are above $5k).  I have gotten to my current position because of BTC's past performance, and even if BTC does not perform as well as it has in the past, I am well able to cash out 1% per quarter without really putting my principle at risk.

I believe that other people can reach a similar status as me.  Overinvest into BTC and that way you have a cushion, even if BTC dips, you have sufficiently enough, and the extra earning of interest is NOT necessary... especially once you might have gotten past your accumulation stages, you are in either a maintenance or a liquidation stage  and ultimately you have already built up equity... Currently my equity is about 12x, so I don't even mind cashing out at $5k which would be about 6x, but I believe that I am never going to have to worry about cashing at $5k or below because in the next 3-5 years, when I start cashing out significantly, I am not going to have to worry at all.. I have plenty of money without having to worry about that kind of third party risk and bitcoin will likely continue to appreciate... and other guys (and gal) will have decent chances to put themselves into a similar situation as long as they have invested in BTC for 5 years or more... now if guys (and gal) are not able to put as much capital into BTC as I had been able to do, then it might take them longer.. maybe 10 years, but still that does not necessarily justify counting on that kind of an interest system in order to make your BTC based passive income plan function quite well.

I spend the interest as I get it, I'm retired.  And prefer to sell Bitcoin when it's overvalued then spend it now.  But if there's other ones out there, would like to investigate those as well.  Blockfi has very low lending limits.

Sure, ultimately it is up to you if you believe putting a portion of you BTC into such a plan is helpful overall and worth the risk.
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September 03, 2019, 05:25:27 AM


Thanks, @JSRAW Bhai for fixed it.


#Bitcoin historically appears to hover around each new zero before blasting to new ATH's. From $9 to $10, $90 to $100 and $900 to $1000. The last time it hovered on the zero was Jan to May 2017 before it shot up. The tension is building.


Source: https://twitter.com/Bitcoinlife2012/status/1168679933326921729
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September 03, 2019, 05:25:54 AM


Quote
Make your own conclusion.
https://twitter.com/inmortalcrypto/status/1168215051385430016

I'm fine this too, $500,000 Cheesy

I really like the look of this projected chart, especially the next ‘crash’ which shows the price at still over the current ATH. I can definitely live with that.

It's a bit bullish.

Of course, it could happen like that, but having a correction that only takes bitcoin back down to $60k as its low seems god-damned optimistic.

Compellingly so.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

 Wink

Looking at 2024 onwards makes me drool like a idiot....  Grin
$6M per BTC or higher ...

Will be curious if BTC plays out anywhere nearly as bullish as that projection, especially if you are expecting a similar trajectory in 2024.  I am not saying that it could not happen, but I just have a hard time imagining such a bullish scenario. 

I will have to be getting gold-platted elderly diapers. 

Won't know how to spend all of the money.

might have to start buying alts (like some other filthy rich peeps) in order to throw a sufficient amount of my money away.

I believe, but I am not sure, if I would want to live frugally like warren buffet in my old age.

I imagine your life would feel like winning monopoly, owning the bank, and owning everything except one street and continuing to play .... watching other players struggling...
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September 03, 2019, 05:27:13 AM



We are all dirty young men until we become dirty old men and its tough to tell exactly when that happened. Grin

I know precisely when it happened.  I remember it well.  I was at the local grocery picking up a few things.  As I moved down the aisle toward another shopper I noticed her pull her child closer...the look on her face I had never seen before.  I had to look at myself, tattered jeans, rotting army coat, and I realized that I was no longer that cute, harmless, punk rock kid, but a possibly homeless middle aged man.

Didn't bitcoin raise you out of such appearances, yet?

We are doing well currently.

Well Rosewater Foundation, might be another story.
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September 03, 2019, 05:57:47 AM

Good morning WO!
Observing corn @10,420.

Corn is getting beautiful!



https://twitter.com/watermicrobe/status/1168131732580814849?s=21
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September 03, 2019, 06:09:51 AM

Good morning WO!
Observing corn @10,420.

Corn is getting beautiful!



https://twitter.com/watermicrobe/status/1168131732580814849?s=21

Welcome.
what is the name of species Corn?
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September 03, 2019, 06:17:38 AM

Good morning WO!
Observing corn @10,420.
Good morning too.
My observation is @ $10,400

Quote
Corn is getting beautiful!

No need to spend money on buying pearls for my lady anymore 🤪
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September 03, 2019, 06:20:41 AM

A great analysis of the Crypto market ..
•   The total crypto market cap recovered nicely and broke the key $250.0B resistance area.
•   Bitcoin price is up more than 7% and it recently climbed above $10,400.
•   Binance coin (BNB) price is also gaining momentum and it recently broke the $22.50 resistance.
•   Litecoin (LTC) price is facing a few solid hurdles near the $68.00 and $70.00 levels.
•   BCH price is up more than 5% and it is about to break the $300 resistance area.
•   Tron (TRX) price is slowly moving towards the $0.0160 and $0.0162 resistance levels.



The crypto market cap and bitcoin (BTC) are currently surging above key resistances.Ethereum (ETH), litecoin, ripple, BCH, TRX, XLM, BNB and EOS are also correcting higher.


Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/09/03/bitcoin-price-btc-signaling-bullish-reversal/

And we could say that it is confirmed by breaking up:


Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/GlU7dhnA-BITCOIN-UP-OR-DOWN-OF-THE-TRIANGLE/



I think that if we take into account the new events that give a lot to talk about, such as the so-called "Cepo" of Argentina, it may have helped a little to raise the price if we apply the simple Offer-Demand Law.
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September 03, 2019, 06:22:56 AM

Good morning WO!
Observing corn @10,420.
Good morning too.
My observation is @ $10,400

Quote
Corn is getting beautiful!

No need to spend money on buying pearls for my lady anymore 🤪

Welcome waiting to see next people come back to say Observing girl -$10kBTC  likely 4digit.
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September 03, 2019, 06:25:53 AM

Good morning WO!
Observing corn @10,420.

Corn is getting beautiful!



https://twitter.com/watermicrobe/status/1168131732580814849?s=21

Welcome.
what is the name of species Corn?

Follow the twitter link,  a long corn related informations!
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September 03, 2019, 06:33:38 AM

Good morning WO!
Observing corn @10,420.

Corn is getting beautiful!



https://twitter.com/watermicrobe/status/1168131732580814849?s=21

Welcome.
what is the name of species Corn?

Follow the twitter link,  a long corn related informations!

Finally seen seasonal corn
This photo is getting lots of engagement. We only have a little bit of corn growing in our little urban garden - all Glass Gem corn. Here is a video of us peeling the corn in the photo.

Video of corn: https://twitter.com/i/status/1168330670332100608
post source: https://twitter.com/watermicrobe/status/1168330670332100608
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September 03, 2019, 06:39:34 AM


Quote
Make your own conclusion.
https://twitter.com/inmortalcrypto/status/1168215051385430016

I'm fine this too, $500,000 Cheesy

I really like the look of this projected chart, especially the next ‘crash’ which shows the price at still over the current ATH. I can definitely live with that.

It's a bit bullish.

Of course, it could happen like that, but having a correction that only takes bitcoin back down to $60k as its low seems god-damned optimistic.

Compellingly so.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

 Wink

Looking at 2024 onwards makes me drool like a idiot....  Grin
$6M per BTC or higher ...

Will be curious if BTC plays out anywhere nearly as bullish as that projection, especially if you are expecting a similar trajectory in 2024.  I am not saying that it could not happen, but I just have a hard time imagining such a bullish scenario. 

I will have to be getting gold-platted elderly diapers. 

Won't know how to spend all of the money.

might have to start buying alts (like some other filthy rich peeps) in order to throw a sufficient amount of my money away.

I believe, but I am not sure, if I would want to live frugally like warren buffet in my old age.

I imagine your life would feel like winning monopoly, owning the bank, and owning everything except one street and continuing to play .... watching other players struggling...

It might be o.k. 

I have been relatively frugal all of my life, even while my standard of living did increase, so there might be some difficulties to adapt - as compared with either growing up rich or even becoming rich in your 20s, then you might be able to really adapt by the time you are in your 40s.  In my case, I am older than that.  I already had more than 30 years of investing and becoming more and more rich with a kind of exponential growth that came with bitcoin and seems to have decent chances of continuing in the coming 3-5 years or perhaps less,  as we all kind of expect a bit of a boom and perhaps even another blow-off top to happen no later than the end of 2021, but likely sooner than that.
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September 03, 2019, 06:51:10 AM
Merited by Majormax (1)

A great analysis of the Crypto market ..
•   The total crypto market cap recovered nicely and broke the key $250.0B resistance area.
•   Bitcoin price is up more than 7% and it recently climbed above $10,400.
•   Binance coin (BNB) price is also gaining momentum and it recently broke the $22.50 resistance.
•   Litecoin (LTC) price is facing a few solid hurdles near the $68.00 and $70.00 levels.
•   BCH price is up more than 5% and it is about to break the $300 resistance area.
•   Tron (TRX) price is slowly moving towards the $0.0160 and $0.0162 resistance levels.



The crypto market cap and bitcoin (BTC) are currently surging above key resistances.Ethereum (ETH), litecoin, ripple, BCH, TRX, XLM, BNB and EOS are also correcting higher.


Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/09/03/bitcoin-price-btc-signaling-bullish-reversal/

And we could say that it is confirmed by breaking up:


Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/GlU7dhnA-BITCOIN-UP-OR-DOWN-OF-THE-TRIANGLE/



I think that if we take into account the new events that give a lot to talk about, such as the so-called "Cepo" of Argentina, it may have helped a little to raise the price if we apply the simple Offer-Demand Law.

That's all fine and dandy.  Yet, in this thread, we do not tend to care too much about making overall crypto market trends and assertions because those kinds of analysis tend to be too vague and are not really thread specific.. which we talk about king daddy bitcoin here.

Another thing that seems to be taking place, on the longer trend is an ongoing purging of the froth in the altcoin (shitcoin) market, so yeah, maybe some of those shitcoins will start to perform, but I believe that a lot of members here, apart from the trolls and shills kind of have a preference to see shitcoins getting purged more and more and more, so perhaps the overall growth of the "crypto" market is an indicator that is important to consider, but I doubt that it is as important as figuring how king daddy is doing relative to the other crap..

Also, I have held a kind of tentative theory that alt coins are going to get another pump, along with bitcoin, but the performance of altcoins in the past year or so, and maybe even moreso in the past 4 months has been lending more credence to a possible outcome in which even fewer of them pump (or have any kind of season), so that might even be a better scenario in terms of bringing the importance of bitcoin more to the front - since a lot of the altcoins tend to believe their path to pumpening success is to mislead folks into believing that either there is something wrong with bitcoin or that they are serving some kind of comparable role to king daddy.... which over the years, several of us, here in these parts, have found to be negative general altcoin attributes...
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September 03, 2019, 07:00:29 AM

is it safe to invest in btc now?

My guess is we'll be taking off to $50k+ in a few months

Shut up, your guess 2 days ago was $8k  Grin Grin Grin
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September 03, 2019, 07:05:50 AM



Pointing in the right direction, let's go !!! BTC

I was about to send you a smerit for this lovely pic; however, I was not sure about the symbolism of it?  Does it mean top?  or a double top? 

TLDR:  looks simultaneously nice and scary

I guess the nipples pointing UP?   Cool
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September 03, 2019, 07:12:20 AM

is it safe to invest in btc now?

My guess is we'll be taking off to $50k+ in a few months

Shut up, your guess 2 days ago was $8k  Grin Grin Grin

Hahahahaha

podyx seems to blow with the wind.




Pointing in the right direction, let's go !!! BTC

I was about to send you a smerit for this lovely pic; however, I was not sure about the symbolism of it?  Does it mean top?  or a double top?  

TLDR:  looks simultaneously nice and scary

I guess the nipples pointing UP?   Cool

Well, you must be a tad bit more brave of a fellow than myself.    

My mesmerization remains a bit scared, here.
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