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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21577269 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (143 posts by 33 users deleted.)
El duderino_
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September 08, 2019, 10:32:37 PM
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September 08, 2019, 10:38:07 PM

There Will be plenty of f*** ups doing that......

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Spare a thought for the people who will sell their alts for a loss when they go up 20% at the start of a real #altcoin bull market, then end up FOMO rebuying them towards the top and bagholding again.

https://twitter.com/fullbeerbottle/status/1170806219122118662?s=21
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September 08, 2019, 10:40:36 PM

Your observation seems quite correct, Hueristic.  My words remain materially inadequate and insufficient in the eyes of Dabs.   Sad

It's not like that at all my friend, your words are all good. I just know you can do a little bit more.

Maybe we are getting caught up on semantics, but  to me, your assertion that I can do a little bit more seems to establish that you believe that my words are not enough in these here parts.


Perhaps you already do and no one knows about it.

For me, personally, it does not really seem to be an appropriate topic of this thread.  I tend to be fairly selective in my sharing of some of my personal details, and yeah, maybe a few personal details might slip in, here and there but my level of do-gooder-ism, to the extent that it exists, is not one that I tend to think about bringing up or that I tend to believe necessary to bring up.   


As for the DCA, I've also read it somewhere else that one of the better alternative strategies is to buy in lump sump what you can, maybe in the case of bitcoin after testing out a small amount, particularly if it is a new exchange or method you are using.

When getting into bitcoin, there can be various reasons to do lump sum and to do DCA.  The reasons vary from each persons situation, but like I mentioned DCA can work quite well for people who are considering long term price potentials and do not want to get caught up in either the day to day or attempting to time dips with any kind of precision.  Of course, lump sum can be quite well in bitcoin, too, but frequently, newer investors might  not even have lump sums that are available.

I have frequently suggested that if someone gets a hold of a lump sum of let's say $6k, then the person divide it into three.  1/3 invest right away, 1/3 dollar cost average over a reasonable period of time, maybe even 6 months, and 1/3 buy on dips.  Of course, my recommendation might change a little bit, depending on what the market it doing and cashflow of the person and other goals that the person might have.

For both buy in and cash out.

I already stated that I believe that it will tend to be erroneous to structure DCA for cashing out, but whatever, people say all kinds of thing, and some of the things are dumb including, in my opinion to DCA on the way out, unless there are specific circumstances justifying such a way about it.


Cash out method is entirely dependent on any target acquisitions you have in mind, but the DCA suggestion is geared more towards a similarity to a so called "safe withdrawal rate" where the principal value is largely unaffected.

I agree that DCA on the way out might work in some circumstances.  At least considering the matter might be better than NOT weighing various ways to do it, but surely DCA on the way out has a lot of different factors, like I mentioned in my earlier post as compared to getting in, so in that case, it is not as much of a no brainer as for on the way out as it tends to be for on the way in.

With bitcoin specifically, increase in value is mostly capital appreciation.

If you are saying that bitcoin is treated as capital gains, then surely that can be a factor to consider, as well in terms of tax implications, of course.

The only reason DCA would make sense is if you've already gotten your initial allocation of corns, and rely on outside sources to continue buying in, and most people don't have large amounts of funds set aside for that. So they get from what they can, which is usually a wage or periodic profits or monthly or quarterly dividends from other investments or sources of income.

Yep.  Agreed.

The average working person would get it from their paycheck, which is either every month or every two weeks. They set aside some amount on that day and just buy whatever corns it will let them.

There are various ways to structure, and sometimes people do it more frequently because they want hands on, but then other times, they might spread it out because they are trying to minimize fees.


The key point which I believe you are trying to make is to remain as unemotional about the process as possible, so DCA affords some of that ability. No thinking. No waiting. No timing. Just buying.

I think that what I had attempted to say was that DCA in makes more sense than DCA out, for the reasons that I had stated in my earlier post.


As for selling, that again depends on your particular situation. If you don't need it all today, can wait a little bit; however it is always a good idea to keep a minimum amount of fiat around so one does not get aggravated by sudden or unexpected expenses, almost all of which can only be paid in fiat or legal tender.

I agree that sometimes tailoring increments might be better than a lump sump, but at least during the cashing out process, that lump sum option might be there, and when buying in, the lump sum option might either NOT be there and/or might end up being the less practical approach for getting and maintaining skin in the BTC game.
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September 08, 2019, 10:45:04 PM

Say what you want, but Segwit was a good thing for bitcoin. If it was not for Segwit, we would be paying higher fees today, and the network would be slower. Just imagine the network of 2015-2016 with the adoption of today, it would clog up.

And this is coming from someone who keeps most of his stash in legacy addresses, so no partisanship here.

Native Segwit is absurdly superior to the system that we had in place before. It's not even a debate.

It is a debate for trolls, shills, bitcoin naysayers, no coiners, and even sometimes for fence sitters.

That's part of the reason why some of our colleagues here like to cite for our edumacation purposes, the dumbasses like shelby from time to time or to refer to the purported problematic nature of the "segwit omni-changeset."    Whatever the fuck that means? hahahahhaha
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September 08, 2019, 11:12:34 PM
Last edit: September 08, 2019, 11:36:33 PM by JayJuanGee
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If jbreher uses his intelligence to deceive people

Not at all. At least never intentionally.

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or to to get caught in stupid-ass technical arguments

I guess it takes a self-described technical ignoramus to openly refer to technical arguments as 'stupid-ass'.

Probably a decent number of the readers of this thread have already recognized that you have a significantly large amount of misleading and misinformation in your posts that tend to also get caught in the weeds of some kind of irrelevance that leans more towards intentional than not.

Regarding your stupid-ass technical arguments, they frequently are stupid-ass because they either are misleading or they are put too much weight on improbable events, which is another form of misleading.

Since it seems quite unlikely that you are going to get banned, and every once in a blue moon, you do provide some helpful information, the best that many of us can do is to merely point out some of your misleading uses of technicalities and other nonsense that you post, that might come off as innocuous on its face. You are not the first to have been engaging in such, and likely not the last, even though you have established a bit of your own signature style in this thread in such seemingly intentional misleading and deceiving regards..

There are also some smart peeps who participate in this thread (and probably readers too), who have not seemed to have recognized the intentional misleadingness of a decent number of your posts, so they engage in behavior to give you the benefit of the doubt, even though many of the times, you don't really deserve such benefit of the doubt.  

Remember Jstolfi?  He was considered to be polite too, similar to your perceived persona, but Stolfi also wreaked a decent amount of havoc through his ongoing distortionary campaigning that lasted through much  of the 2014/2015 bear market, and Stolfi had similar but different patterns from your own.. and the time was different then, too in 2014/15, of course, so the attack vectors upon bitcoin were different then, too.
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September 08, 2019, 11:23:06 PM
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If it was not for Segwit, we would be paying higher fees today, and the network would be slower.

Well, there was another available means of solving these issues.

Who cares?  Water under the bridge.

Segwit was passed by overwhelming consensus, yet diptwats like you want to continue to argue about (then) supposed other options.. so fucking what?  That's not what happened.
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September 08, 2019, 11:32:44 PM

JJG, you may be a bit too wordy, but I'm glad that you spare the time to call out the destructive bullshit that jbreher spews in order to manipulate others. I am also thankful for Hairy's contributions as well. 
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September 08, 2019, 11:33:34 PM

to re-iterate two recent analysis of bitcoin statistics:

S/F by planB

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1170701620751065095   #this is latest reiteration, see medium article for the original.

Power law by Harold Cristopher Burger:

https://medium.com/@hcburger1/bitcoins-natural-long-term-power-law-corridor-of-growth-649d0e9b3c94

TL;DR S/F predicts at least 55K at the halving with about 55-300K band; Power law predicts a maximum of about 120K by the end of 2021 and as low as 15k in the ensuing correction by the beginning of 2023. S/F is a bit more optimistic (no reason for the price to dip to 15K).

If we are looking more short-term BTC price dynamics, part of the question currently, in my ponderings, is whether there is going to be a weekly candle closing reaction?

Sometimes it comes before the weekly candle closing and sometimes afterwards.

BTC price dynamics seem pretty flat right now, and the weekly candle closes in about 30 minutes, at the time of my typing.
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September 09, 2019, 12:32:17 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

If it was not for Segwit, we would be paying higher fees today, and the network would be slower.

Well, there was another available means of solving these issues.

Who cares?  Water under the bridge.

Segwit was passed by overwhelming consensus, yet diptwats like you want to continue to argue about (then) supposed other options.. so fucking what?  That's not what happened.

Word.  Go out there and make Beecash Satoshis Original Crispy VisionTM happen.  Don’t sit around here complaining to us about what might have been
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September 09, 2019, 12:57:23 AM

Got bad news.  Silver will probably double top at $800 an ounce.

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September 09, 2019, 01:08:55 AM

Here is a look at the weekly chart from a couple of different perspectives. No ta..ive had a few too many cold snacks and am looking at the screen outta one eye at the moment..
Seahawks win a nail biter in the home opener against the Bengals 21-20   Life is good.  Carry on.
#dyor
W



W

#stronghands'19
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September 09, 2019, 01:15:44 AM

https://usethebitcoin.com/jed-mccaleb-receives-100-million-xrp-from-ripple/

LOL, XRP The Bagholder standard. Jed will be dumping all of these on shitcoiners heads.

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September 09, 2019, 01:55:42 AM


one point three percent
every shitcoin bagholder
is this alt season?

Unknowingly, or...?
Posted a visual #haiku!
Goose with a surprise
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September 09, 2019, 02:25:05 AM

Good day Bitcoinland
Ten four four two U.S. bucks
(Bitcoinaverage).

Still going sideways
When will this crap ever end?
Maybe November.

Buying those cheap coins
Still plentiful time brothers
Hurry though moon soon

5
7
5

I got it, right?


Formally perfect
debut deserving merit
LFC scrapped it?


+1 WOsMerit to LFC (if the #haiku was actually written by him, and this isn't a quoting mistake by ulrich_zh)
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September 09, 2019, 03:46:05 AM
Last edit: September 09, 2019, 03:56:32 AM by Hueristic

Update: Lander location found from the orbitar but still no response from the lander with any signals.

But as scientist says 90% success of this project can be achieved with orbitar itself.

Landing on other planets and moons is *hard*.

The real tough part is getting back in one piece and sticking that landing. Smiley


Here is a look at the weekly chart from a couple of different perspectives. No ta..ive had a few too many cold snacks and am looking at the screen outta one eye at the moment..
Seahawks win a nail biter in the home opener against the Bengals 21-20   Life is good.  Carry on....


I have Lockett and was getting pretty pissed there for awhile!

In other news, Pittsburgh just embarrassed themselves and the Pats getting AB is not even remotely fair.
I'm saying that and i'm a Pats fan. That is of course if he doesn't blow up there too.
I tend to think this was his plan all along though, Raiders got boned too.
Was this another Belichick masterstroke?

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September 09, 2019, 04:13:39 AM

Good day Bitcoinland
Ten four four two U.S. bucks
(Bitcoinaverage).

Still going sideways
When will this crap ever end?
Maybe November.

I would kind of prefer staying between $9k and $11.5k until about November rather than dropping below $9k and then perhaps getting stuck down there for longer than we were to prefer.

On the other hand, some folks think that there is a bit of a necessity to drop below $9k in order to cause some resolution in the ability to go up, so in other words, the expectation is that we are not ready to go up yet because buy support is still catching up.  So either stay in this range a bit longer or test some more downward support before likely resolving in the up direction.
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September 09, 2019, 04:25:12 AM

Got bad news.  Silver will probably double top at $800 an ounce.




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September 09, 2019, 04:36:40 AM

How could evidence of personal identity have anything whatsoever to do with evidence of protocol change?

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I'm not sure if you're trolling or trying to be serious.

Back at ya.

See any evidence of SegWit in the white paper? No?

Explicitly in front of your face. Willful dereliction of truthiness.

SegWit was indeed an alteration of the Bitcoin protocol. Undeniably. There is really no way to argue otherwise.

I am pretty confident the white paper doesn’t say anything about Turing completeness, legally enforceable smart contracts, token protocols,  large data storage capability and all the other shit in Bitcoin SV marketing

Yet interestingly, all fully supported in the 0.1 version of the Bitcoin protocol. You know, before the Cripple Rangers took control of the codebase. SegWit, on the other hand...

Funny, eh?

So what's the point you are trying to make?

My mistake.  I couldn't see any evidence of them in the white paper.  Thank you for clarifying that it doesn't matter whether something is mentioned in the whitepaper.

That is not what I said at all. Are you really that blind that you do not see what I am getting at? Even with your introduction of demonstrably flawed sidebars?

The initial implementation of Bitcoin - 0.1 supports all the features you list. Without recourse to explicit enabling code.
The initial implementation of Bitcoin -- and including up to and through the SegWit Omnibus Changeset Release -- did not support SegWit. Neither explicitly nor as an external implementation. Indeed, the implementation of SegWit was predicated on the most egregious change to the Bitcoin protocol ever enacted.
The features you list did not / do not require a change to the Bitcoin protocol.
SegWit did / does require a change to the Bitcoin protocol.

So when you say "it doesn't matter whether something is mentioned in the whitepaper", you're neither right nor wrong. What matters is the protocol itself. SegWit was undeniably a change to that protocol. A rather significant one. Therefore, somewhat 'less Bitcoin-y' -- at least on this axis -- than other implementations which hew to the original.

On the other hand, if some element is decidedly counter to the white paper (chain of digital signatures, anyone?), then that indeed does matter.

It’s hard to keep track of what you were saying when you keep changing it. 

Bullshit. I've been consistent. You've been persistent in finding new words to stick in my mouth.
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September 09, 2019, 05:18:43 AM


https://twitter.com/Rhythmtrader/status/1170750872118321153

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September 09, 2019, 05:30:22 AM

Got bad news.  Silver will probably double top at $800 an ounce.



Not bad news it learning purpose need help to be learn.
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