Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Majormax]

1.We broke down 3-months consolidation and 200DMA -> I am assuming bear market till proven wrong.
2.With #1, it means $btc bull market failed to break previous ATH for the 1st time -> I am going to assume the first MACRO-BEAR market!


current plan is to watch the 200DMA retest and quite likely short it. (depending on the tape)

The most ominous sign is the failure of the exponential rally in June/July, and the fact that the price has followed through downwards since.

In classical TA, this is sign of a full-blown bear market.  An parabolic rally to new highs always ends a bull run, and price takes a lot of time to recover. However a parabolic failure which doesn't get to the previous high is much worse. I hesitate to call it so, partly because I don't like that idea, and partly because we all can claim BTC is somewhat peculiar compared with other assets.

However, the evidence is plain, and a real price failure is now a significant possibilty.

[Majormax]

Do you think BTC would end the year at around the $10,000 mark?

I still think we're gonna see an ATH this year, December probably....  

I think that was /s, but  I think even 10k by year end is most unlikely.

[Majormax]

The long term bull market in BTC is under real threat.  A key point will come after a test of the 6.5k support. That may take a few more months.

With the halving approaching, if price cannot rally to a new high next year, the whole game will have changed.

Jury is still out on it, but there are warning signs of a negative verdict.

[vroom]

is it just me or is bitcoin about to debart?

[El duderino_]

is it just me or is bitcoin about to debart?

Prefer debart

Let it start ......

[Majormax]

Bottom might be in, new guys start talking about macro bear etc

That is one positive sign , yes.  But there are a lot of negatives. We will have to wait for more indicators, and see price activity.

[El duderino_]

Bottom might be in, new guys start talking about macro bear etc

That is one positive sign , yes.  But there are a lot of negatives. We will have to wait for more indicators, and see price activity.

Yeah, also I never really call a bottom cause I might be wrong with guessing 95% of the time

My only guess is long term succes and all my bets are made on that one call....

[Majormax]

Bottom might be in, new guys start talking about macro bear etc

That is one positive sign , yes.  But there are a lot of negatives. We will have to wait for more indicators, and see price activity.

Yeah, also I never really call a bottom cause I might be wrong with guessing 95% of the time

My only guess is long term succes and all my bets are made on that one call....

That is the best way. Many of the most successful people had one really good plan, and stuck with it (the core of it at least). Trying to second-guess everything leads to stress, and you can actually out-think youself into failure.

There is no guarantee either way, but it is actually worse to be right long term and not be committed, than to be committed and be wrong.

Another way of looking at things, is that BTC price is a forward indicator. In that case, it is signalling a deflationary economic environment in the medium future (which would be very bad for the whole economy) but holders of the right assets will lose less.  Bond prices are also chiming with this possibility.  I must admit, I really don't like it , because inflation is on balance the less painful alternative ( or at least causes less shocks to the fabric of society).

[Gyrsur]

[bitcoinPsycho]

It's the only logical thing to do

[Totscha]

Do you think BTC would end the year at around the $10,000 mark?

I still think we're gonna see an ATH this year, December probably....  

I think that was /s, but  I think even 10k by year end is most unlikely.

Let me remind you of September 2017. From almost $4999 on Sep 1st to $3200 on Sep 14th. All the bears were screaming here: "There you go, the bubble burst. Hope you sold everything before. We're going back to triple digits."

And one month later we smashed thought 5k...

Not saying this time will be the same. I'm just saying that a 20% rise (or a fall) in a few months is something that we can never rule out.

[Gyrsur]

EDIT: https://imgur.com/gallery/qdlXTsZ 

[HairyMaclairy]

We have broken the previous low from four days ago by $19 and suddenly all the bears are out.  

If that’s the best you can do boys, then you are about to get smashed.  

[Gyrsur]

call it the bottom or whatever

[toknormal]

Heading towards $4k around October 2020. Forget the "halfing". It was priced in early - 1 year early - and profits got taken in the 12k "fakeout".

That's what bitcoin does folks - what you're not expecting.

New ATH around 2023, 2024, just at long term log charts have been predicting. Time between peaks increasing as marketcap increases.

[realr0ach]

Another way of looking at things, is that BTC price is a forward indicator. In that case, it is signalling a deflationary economic environment in the medium future (which would be very bad for the whole economy) but holders of the right assets will lose less.  Bond prices are also chiming with this possibility.  I must admit, I really don't like it , because inflation is on balance the less painful alternative ( or at least causes less shocks to the fabric of society).

Since the world is at peak debt and 5000 year low interest rates, the only way to right the ship is massively increase inflation to inflate the debt away, which then enables you to normalize rates again.  However, all the jobs from 1st world nations where financialization is most rampant have outsourced them all to overpopulated countries like China in global labor arbitrage where the value of a human life is zero, and thus so is the value of their labor.

You then have a DOUBLE deflationary attack stemming from only shitty, low paying jobs being left in the first world, financialization countries, and China still exporting deflation onto you on top of that due to their excess population. And illegal Mexicans exporting deflation and lowering wages to boot.  No matter if you're a Jew banker, a white nationalist, or any other thousands of demographics, the only logical option that can be taken at this point is to massively cut or stop trade with China and boot out all the illegal aliens to prevent complete deflationary implosion from permanent suppression of wages.

Globalization is the most idiotic bullshit on earth whose main byproduct is to turn regional overpopulation issues into everyone else's problem even if you live 2000 miles away.  China, India, and the continent of Africa have to be forced to deal with their overpopulation issues themselves instead of trying to export their problem to other people.  It can't go on anymore.  Global labor arbitrage has to be turned off and let the cards fall where they may.

[Gyrsur]

FAKE NEWS!!

Heading towards $4k around October 2020. Forget the "halfing". It was priced in early - 1 year early - and profits got taken in the 12k "fakeout".

That's what bitcoin does folks - what you're not expecting.

New ATH around 2023, 2024, just at long term log charts have been predicting. Time between peaks increasing as marketcap increases.

[Karartma1]

Heading towards $4k around October 2020. Forget the "halfing". It was priced in early - 1 year early - and profits got taken in the 12k "fakeout".

That's what bitcoin does folks - what you're not expecting.

New ATH around 2023, 2024, just at long term log charts have been predicting. Time between peaks increasing as marketcap increases.

Super bearish but... intriguing. If that would be the case I could buy new loads of ammo.

[whiteboy420]

Anyone who wants to know, adam gave up his account, forum admins concluded that this thread was difficult to administer and closed down the thread.  after complaints from forum members, theymos agreed to reopen the thread with a new thread owner that was voted upon by forum member (largely already active WO participants to my recollection).. accordingly, infofront has carried out a very laudable nearly non-interventionist approach that seems to carry out the spirit of the thread in a way that might have even been playing out better than the original version.  Go Figure!!

Yep, just to add to that, the reason the first post was changed wasn't a FU to Adam, but was simply a pragmatic decision because there was no other way to easily change the thread moderation. If anyone has a problem with that, then download the source code for SMF and code a workaround...

Or just fuck off from here because nobody sane would give a fuck about Adam? Seems much simpler than your proposal.

I always liked Adam.

but it´s about preservation of History.

[whiteboy420]

Starting to short after a 44% drop is about as smart as everything else you have said.

I am a simple man.

I see a Trend, i Trade it.


Ps: If you were Greta Thunberg, would you hate Bitcoin ?