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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26367790 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Fatman3001
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October 01, 2019, 08:10:21 PM


Don't underestimate human stupidity

That's a good point.
You have to make the majority of people believe that a world war actually solves problems to pull that off and keep your head on afterwards.
Adolf was the last one to accomplish this yet.
Even the generals of nuclear forces wouldn't blindly nuke the world just because the president is hitting the red button.
Amongst all stupidity, there's also sanity, even if it may be quite rare.

Maybe not out of the blue. But if two or several countries are on the verge of war we might just need one trigger happy nuke specialist to send a confirmed hit and we'll have nuclear armageddon. Both/all sides will fire whatever they've got in the vain hope that their country will somehow be better off.

Reason, as we see with the climate change debates in this thread, is not a huge factor in many peoples thinking.
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October 01, 2019, 08:15:54 PM

-snip-
Halving is EXTREMELY bullish and the price will start rising before the halving and will go parabolic after the halving.

your certainty makes me uncertain  Grin

If it is a given why is nobody front-running the event ?

Indeed, I think it is happening. The extent of the front-running is of course uncertain. It could be limited to the noticeable accumulation by strong handed hodlers and fresh handed newcomers with a fat bankroll. But tomorrow's money isn't money until it hits your wallet, so the risk incurred by front running or accumulating is real. And what is rewarded by tomorrow's money is exactly today's risk.
d_eddie
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October 01, 2019, 08:22:25 PM

At NeuroticFish's request, I made this:

All posts in the Wall Observer thread in the past 1h, 24h and 7d
All posts in the past 1 hour: WallObserver.tk/1h.html (updated every 3 minutes).
All posts in the past 24 hours: WallObserver.tk (updated every 30 minutes).
All posts in the past 7 days: WallObserver.tk/7d.html (updated every 2 hours).

Domain WallObserver.tk expires a year from now, I'll see by then if anyone uses it.
All times are set to Amsterdam time.

Limitations:
Images still go through Bitcointalk's image proxy, and they don't load when there are too many on one page. In Firefox a fix is to go to the URL-bar a few times, and press Enter. Just "Reload" doesn't help.
I'm just leaving it here in case anyone things this is useful Smiley If not, please ignore it.

Thank you Loyce. I think this is a real service to people taking part in the biggest bitcoin conversation there is. Given your inhuman amount of merit, my puny few are better spent with people in need (sublegendaries, mostly). But please have one very valuable

+1 WOsMerit

only awarded in this thread after Toxic2040 mined the first one!
infofront (OP)
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October 01, 2019, 08:52:59 PM

-snip-
Halving is EXTREMELY bullish and the price will start rising before the halving and will go parabolic after the halving.

your certainty makes me uncertain  Grin

If it is a given why is nobody front-running the event ?

Indeed, I think it is happening. The extent of the front-running is of course uncertain. It could be limited to the noticeable accumulation by strong handed hodlers and fresh handed newcomers with a fat bankroll. But tomorrow's money isn't money until it hits your wallet, so the risk incurred by front running or accumulating is real. And what is rewarded by tomorrow's money is exactly today's risk.

As we're below PlanB's stock to flow model current value, I now question the front-running thesis. It seemed like we were front running for a while there, but maybe it was just "buy the rumor, sell the news" for Libra and Bakkt.
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October 01, 2019, 09:08:30 PM

-snip-
Halving is EXTREMELY bullish and the price will start rising before the halving and will go parabolic after the halving.

your certainty makes me uncertain  Grin

If it is a given why is nobody front-running the event ?

Indeed, I think it is happening. The extent of the front-running is of course uncertain. It could be limited to the noticeable accumulation by strong handed hodlers and fresh handed newcomers with a fat bankroll. But tomorrow's money isn't money until it hits your wallet, so the risk incurred by front running or accumulating is real. And what is rewarded by tomorrow's money is exactly today's risk.

As we're below PlanB's stock to flow model current value, I now question the front-running thesis. It seemed like we were front running for a while there, but maybe it was just "buy the rumor, sell the news" for Libra and Bakkt.
That's a good objection that makes me think. However, embracing it implies believing that the stock to flow model is valid. Which is definitely possible IMHO. The difference between "possible" and "proven" is the difference between a big future reward and a null one... hmm...  Huh  Roll Eyes ... more thinking required
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October 01, 2019, 09:19:46 PM

d_eddie
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October 01, 2019, 09:20:50 PM

there is one reason (besides many others) why BTCitcoin will succeed: printing infinite FIAT money to avoid the next recession

While recessions are part of the fiat game by design, aren't they?
I think recessions are part of the economy since the old times - when fiat didn't exist and money was hard (metals). Soft money just made things worse, quicker and more subject to the dishonest whim of central monetary authorities.
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October 01, 2019, 09:22:45 PM

The correlation from stock to flow is not that precise. Also, it should get weaker and weaker as an indicator. The large majority of coins are mined. Liquidity is less and less moved by miners.
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October 01, 2019, 09:25:21 PM



Hi VB

Is it possible to show % change in price vs % change in replies?  It is hard to compare price moves against changes in replies without a like for like comparison

Thank you !
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October 01, 2019, 09:26:41 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), infofront (1), HairyMaclairy (1)

My 14,000th post & where else to make it but here. My favourite thread on the entire forum by far. Let’s have some patience gentlemen. Very good times ahead for us. I saw this tweet & wanted to share it with the WO gang -


@oddgems
Previous bullrun $BTC went from $1k to $20k - thats an approx 20x 😊

While some $ALTS did 100x and few others did 1000x 🤩

Its about waiting and having a beautiful patience! 💯

https://twitter.com/oddgems/status/1178993253976174592?s=21


Ignore all the trolls & doubters guys, HODL hard & we’ll be greatly rewarded in 2021/22. Nothing good ever comes easily in life. Let’s get ready for hopefully the Mother of all bull runs. $100,000 per coin in the not too distant future.

Peace Smiley
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October 01, 2019, 09:27:13 PM


Merits are useless

Au contraire, do you have any idea how much I have been offered for this account?

No one wants to buy the account of a notorious leftie and Greta fanboi
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October 01, 2019, 09:35:10 PM

Congrats on 14k LFC!
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October 01, 2019, 09:37:56 PM

Congrats on 14k LFC!

Thanks!
I spend way too much time on here Grin
This forum is such a valuable tool for learning though. I don’t think I’d have the stash that I have without my obsession, probably born from this place to research & learn so much from. All the way from knowing how to keep my bitcoin’s safe & where to store them, everything learnt here tbh.
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October 01, 2019, 10:03:00 PM

I have a solution. WWW3

after the next WW no human beings will exists anymore on earth. it will be a total one.

https://books.google.com/books/about/Nuclear_War_Survival_Skills.html?id=VPFTAAAAMAAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button#v=onepage&q&f=false

If you're imagining the rise of the machines, OTOH...
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October 01, 2019, 10:17:50 PM



https://www.change.org/p/ripple-stop-ripple-dumping

LeT's SiGn tHiS PeTiTiON!

Quote
Ripple continue dumping billions of XRP on us, crashing the price!
Its amazing this sort of behaviour is widely accepted in the crypto world. Sure we know that XRP is a solid coin with major potential but this needs to stop!
Everyday there is good news... A new bank or partnership announced but still, it manages to keep on dumping.
The only logical explanation is that Ripple are dumping on us. And not small amounts either. Literally billions. We have seen the reports of them disclosing this so its a fact.
Now imagine a world where those coins aren't dumped... where the buyers get to buy without dumping and price suppression...
You and I both know what happens.
We pump.
And pump.
Like the good ol days....
Now we need over 10k signatures to help support the cause and stop the price decline.
If they stop selling, its more likely the strong demand for this quality coin will naturally pump the price back to ATH and beyond!
JayJuanGee
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October 01, 2019, 10:21:19 PM
Merited by mindrust (1)

I had that crazy (maybe wasn't so crazy) idea in the morning. I was about to put the rest of all my FIAT (6 figures) to BTC but then I didn't. Did another small $200 DCA instead.

Isn't that a sure bet? I mean who doesn't believe here that BTC won't make it above 9k again? Last time I said these lines it was somewhere between 4k and 6k, and I still didn't buy (I mean not all in), and it damn went above 9k indeed.

From 8k to 9k that was %12 sure gains. (It is %6 now)

From time to time, you come out with some real doozies, mindrust.

Based on my round about idea about the total size of your BTC investment, how  the fuck could you have anywhere close to 6 figures of fiat available?  

I'll make it easy for you.

From these prices my btc percentage is around %~33-35, the rest is in FIAT and a small amount is in physical gold. (could be ignored) I am pretty sure you can figure out my stash size since you were close enough to guess my btc size.

I had guessed pretty close to your BTC size because you had largely provided it in your earlier posts   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy, and I added a little bit on to the earlier disclosed amounts to account for some passage of time.. including possibly projecting out.

Of course, you can do whatever you like in terms of your BTC allocations relative to other investments, and of course, the circumstances of guys are going to differ including based on: 1) their age, which surely could affect a) how many past opportunities that they may have had to invest in other assets, besides crypto and b) how much urgency that they feel towards their planning their necessities to liquidate (of course, younger guys might sometimes get impatient in wanting to get rich quick, but that is a bit of a different question) and 2) the cost of living in the area that they live - which also might end up affecting how much cashflow that they are able to generate, even if they were to possess amongst the best of skills.

I surely have a decent amount of sympathy for various perspectives including the fact that for some younger guys might NOT have ways to meaningfully and easily get into the investment of non-crypto assets, so accordingly, they end up investing all of their investible assets into crypto and keeping the remainder in fiat, which could be something that you are doing, mindrust, even though you are not diversifying amongst crypto because you just have bitcoin, and the other part is fiat... without any other meaningful investments in other asset classes

So, in that regard, I never really thought about fiat as an investible asset, so earlier (and frequently) when I suggested that early adopters into bitcoin should invest 1% to 10% of their investable capital into bitcoin, I am assuming the other 90% to 99% to have been invested in other asset classes, and surely I never really thought about fiat as being one of those asset classes - except upon further reflection, I could appreciate 10% or more that a guy might hold in fiat that is just available for investing (that is apart from emergency expenses and things like that).

So, yeah, you are considering this whole allocation matter in much different ways than me, and it just seems a bit overly risky to me that guys would be considering their whole investments to be divided between bitcoin and fiat and even considering fiat to be a kind of investment (even though concededly fiat does serve as a kind of offset of possible downside volatility, in the event that bitcoin and fiat were the only investments that peeps were to have).

So, ultimately, you could be correct to have higher allocations in fiat when you are already singularily focusing on bitcoin as your only investment, so in that regard, you may be balancing your risk out better to maintain higher levels of fiat (in those kinds of circumstances, even though you know almost certainly that fiat is losing value on an ongoing basis, but surely when BTC prices are correcting violently, then relative to BTC, fiat is largely holding its value).  


I am buying shitton of btc that's true but I am keeping (and buying) shitton (plankton for some guys here) in FIAT too.

I don't know what is "plankton."


You don't think my FIAT amount was going to stay same through the years don't you?

I kind of have to rethink this whole matter, if you consider that the only things that you hold are bitcoin and fiat, and that kind of throws me for a loop about how to prepare exactly.  I do presume that if BTC is going up rather than down, then you are becoming more wealthy (even in terms of fiat) because the BTC is going up relative to the fiat.  There are various forumulas that you can calculate from such wealth appreciation in order to decide how much BTC to sell on the way up because of such increases in your wealth, but since you are waiting until somewhere between $45k and $60k before you even sell any of your BTC, then for sure, if those price amounts are reached, then you should be much more wealthy, of course unless the value of your fiat that you had been holding were to go down in value in the same amount or more, then you would not have become more wealthy from such BTC price appreciation.

So yeah there is a bit of a presumption that your overall wealth, in terms of fiat, is going up with the appreciation of the price of bitcoin, but there is also a bit of a presumption that you are continuing to dollar cost average invest into bitcoin and also to buy on BTC dips, which may or may not cause your overall available fiat to remain the same or to change in either direction.
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October 01, 2019, 10:27:47 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

State-Backed German Bank Says Bitcoin Will Leap to $90,000 in 2020

https://cointelegraph.com/news/state-backed-german-bank-says-bitcoin-will-leap-to-90-000-in-2020
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October 01, 2019, 10:40:17 PM

State-Backed German Bank Says Bitcoin Will Leap to $90,000 in 2020

https://cointelegraph.com/news/state-backed-german-bank-says-bitcoin-will-leap-to-90-000-in-2020

Sounds about right. My exit point is $85k. And I suspect that will be in 2020.
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October 01, 2019, 10:45:55 PM


Hmmmm..... I have roughly 150 unused merit points. What kinda weird stuff can I get the weaker minded lot in here to do for those?

Edit: Can we get a petition for that Fucking Fatty Friday thing? Maybe less whiny. "Fatmans Friday" sounds ok.

ready, set....... squirm!!!
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October 01, 2019, 10:48:36 PM


Hmmmm..... I have roughly 150 unused merit points. What kinda weird stuff can I get the weaker minded lot in here to do for those?

You can get some to stroke your ego....

If that’s what you seek otherwise you can just some where they are due....
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