Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fillippone]

I wander out of this thread for a little bit, then I get crucified. Back to Observing the Wall. Much nicer in here.

WO is a family: what you give returns to you 10x.
Give respect, have respect in return.
Give a laughter, return laughter.
Need support, receive support.
Actually, better than a family.

Another that did not say "no homo" so for sure I am starting to wonder.   

No homo!

Better late than never, I suppose.   

And spontaneously!
Thank you for the gentle reminder JJG!
No homo

[1713612655]

1713612655

[1713612655]

1713612655

[rebal15]

https://twitter.com/Rhythmtrader/status/1181316649133182977

I'd bet more people understand how the bitcoin network works than how the Federal Reserve does.

Central banking is complex to hide the truth.

Bitcoin is simple to show the truth.

It's by design.

This dood's on point in every tweet. Bot?

Maybe he's just trying to become the next Pomp?

Pomp became pretty famous by just tweeting pretty much the same stuff with a new taste again & again.

He did became famous cause of that, but some people just need it to first gain there interest.....

micgoossens, it was clear that Rhythmtrader is not normal. Me and r0ach have notified you about that many times. it is good to differentiate between real and fake.

[d_eddie]

-snip-

I have spoken to investment bankers at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan who do TA on Bitcoin and in their arrogance they have never heard of the halvening.   So they can’t plan for it and they can’t front run it.   Even among retail investors, most of whom are focused on chasing shitcoins, they have no understanding of how the entire market is run by the drum beat of Daddy Bitcoin.

We sit in a privileged position because we live and breathe this every day.  But don’t make the mistake of extrapolating our knowledge and experience to the broader market.  

I agree that we have halving knowledge, but here comes the test...
If this time around halving and S/F extension to above 50 (closer to gold) would produce 55K-90K prices (conservatively), THEN our position was truly privileged. If not, then it is still mostly random fluctuation. I hope for the former and I am keenly aware of the latter.

Most of you were probably not around the Internet bubble 1. In 1997-2000 it was simply great.
-snip-
Still everything crashed.

Granted, those stocks did not have a 'halving engine' beneath them and maybe this would be a critical factor.
However, litecoin (not bitcoin) has similar halving process, yet it crashed very badly AFTER undergoing halving recently (albeit it was rising toward halving). Maybe it does not count because it is a minor coin, but arguing that halving works only on one entity is presumptuous.

TL;DR The upcoming halving would be a huge test of the 'halving engine' and S/F guideline idea. Fingers crossed.

Reasonable doubt. In general, it's exactly the uncertainty about future events that is rewarded in investments, so the bigger the doubt, the prettier the lambo in case of success.

As a tentatively reasonable objection to your doubt, it could be said that ltc is well known among the cryptoheads and almost unknown outside that circle. Many bitcoiners have a special place in their hearts for what they consider the mother of all altcoins. However, the normies who barely know the basics about btc have probably no clue what ltc is, so most ltc hodlers/investors are crypto savvy. For this reason, it is possible that the ltc halvening has indeed been front run by a population of investors almost entirely in the know.

Btc is a different beast. Big money guys, including those at GS and JPM, are nearly clueless about geek stuff like halvenings and so aren't likely to have front run the halvening, at least until now. Shhh, let's keep it to ourselves.

[rdbase]

Price is going up nicely now over $8200.
Why the sudden burst up in the btc price any news which broke now since 12 hours ago where it stood at $7900?

 MicG and I donned the Vegeta hat.  Bitcoin value is powerless against it; price burst was inevitable.

Good call!
Maybe I should get a hat with $20k vegeta and put it on to let the price really take off!
Let me know if you can do animated gif hats.

[rebal15]

Slap yourself,

if you sold $BTC under $10,000.

https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1157075839495761920

Price of BTC to be 8K end of august.

I think most people use Twitter and Facebook for propaganda purposes, especially when something is unregulated and can not cause you problems with the authorities.

[Last of the V8s]

Looks ready to blow up straight back to 9600.

[Negotiation]

^^ He is from Indian Subcontinent 

To his defense Indian subcontinent has more than 30 + official languages ( Main languages : Hindi, Urdu, Tamil, Punjabi, Bengali, Dari,Pashto, Sinhala,Gorkhali etc)  and not counting thousands of other dialects.

thanks @JSRAW buddy we have just popular word "bottle or peg" opposite vodka.

[xhomerx10]

^^ He is from Indian Subcontinent 

To his defense Indian subcontinent has more than 30 + official languages ( Main languages : Hindi, Urdu, Tamil, Punjabi, Bengali, Dari,Pashto, Sinhala,Gorkhali etc)  and not counting thousands of other dialects.

thanks @JSRAW buddy we have just popular word "bottle or peg" opposite vodka.

If you dont mind, how do you write Vodka in your language?

[Negotiation]

^^ He is from Indian Subcontinent 

To his defense Indian subcontinent has more than 30 + official languages ( Main languages : Hindi, Urdu, Tamil, Punjabi, Bengali, Dari,Pashto, Sinhala,Gorkhali etc)  and not counting thousands of other dialects.

thanks @JSRAW buddy we have just popular word "bottle or peg" opposite vodka.

If you dont mind, how do you write Vodka in your language?

we are vodka meaning ''mal, bottle, mod, peg'' others name off meaning 'vodka" specially "Vodka=Mal".

[xhomerx10]

^^ He is from Indian Subcontinent 

To his defense Indian subcontinent has more than 30 + official languages ( Main languages : Hindi, Urdu, Tamil, Punjabi, Bengali, Dari,Pashto, Sinhala,Gorkhali etc)  and not counting thousands of other dialects.

thanks @JSRAW buddy we have just popular word "bottle or peg" opposite vodka.

If you dont mind, how do you write Vodka in your language?

we are vodka meaning ''mal, bottle, mod, peg'' others name off meaning 'vodka" specially "Vodka=Mal".

 Thanks but I wanted to see the word itself written in your language.

[Lambie Slayer]

Yeah merit stats.

Problem is that you did not say "no homo"....  

So mic and JJG are 2 wonder-boys.

Anyways India won the Test game against SouthAfrica.

I not caught up, but why am I in a group with JJG??

It was a discussion - The two most likely WO’s to date in the future.

 

via Imgflip Meme Generator

You did not say "no homo" either.   

Xhomer really needs to come through with the no homo hats before it gets too gay in here. No homo.

 Quick-and-dirty hat job.  No Homo



 avatar-sized

Lmfao!

[Negotiation]

^^ He is from Indian Subcontinent  

To his defense Indian subcontinent has more than 30 + official languages ( Main languages : Hindi, Urdu, Tamil, Punjabi, Bengali, Dari,Pashto, Sinhala,Gorkhali etc)  and not counting thousands of other dialects.

thanks @JSRAW buddy we have just popular word "bottle or peg" opposite vodka.

If you dont mind, how do you write Vodka in your language?

we are vodka meaning ''mal, bottle, mod, peg'' others name off meaning 'vodka" specially "Vodka=Mal".

 Thanks but I wanted to see the word itself written in your language.

Yaah now our language "Vodka=विंटेज, মদ"

[Icygreen]

https://twitter.com/TheBlock__/status/1181201203012747267

BREAKING: A class action lawsuit was filed today against
@Bitfinex and @Tether to The firms’ liability to the putative class likely surpasses $1.4 trillion U.S. dollars

Popcorn time.

[xhomerx10]

^^ He is from Indian Subcontinent  

To his defense Indian subcontinent has more than 30 + official languages ( Main languages : Hindi, Urdu, Tamil, Punjabi, Bengali, Dari,Pashto, Sinhala,Gorkhali etc)  and not counting thousands of other dialects.

thanks @JSRAW buddy we have just popular word "bottle or peg" opposite vodka.

If you dont mind, how do you write Vodka in your language?

we are vodka meaning ''mal, bottle, mod, peg'' others name off meaning 'vodka" specially "Vodka=Mal".

 Thanks but I wanted to see the word itself written in your language.

Yaah now our language "Vodka=विंटेज, মদ"

 Thank you.  Much appreciated 

[Biodom]

*incoherent ranting*

Yes.  About a year and a half ago, pretty much Hairy admitted that he was relying on fractal comparisons, and surely I have been vocally critical of such fractal comparison reliances, even though they have largely been playing out - with, of course, some upwards deviation with our 3.5x outburst from April 1 to end of June, and currently what appears to be a return to the mean of the fractal... So whatever the fuck lack of comparison seems to still be working out in a very comparable way.


So, maybe there has never been such a system in the world, but who fucking cares?  It still has worked out quite well in bitcoin for a lot of us BTC HODLers and accumulators to be continuing to become richie and to increase our richness through the fact that BTC prices continue to go up in the longer term.. just like the silly fucking ass fractal comparisons seem to suggest.  Go figure?  

Now you roach, on the other hand, have had some mediocre gold price appreciation during this calendar year (which has gotten you all excited, and even a bit more cocky than usual), and maybe you should be taking advantage of that mediocre gold price appreciation and getting into a real future asset.. ie bitcoin?  dumb ass.

There is no TA comparison in legacy financial markets because there is no comparable asset in legacy financial markets.

There is no financial instrument with fixed supply to be paid out over a century where the rate of supply halves every four years as regular as the Olympics.  It is this regular drum beat that causes us to pound out the same patterns.  Yes the drum beat will get weaker over time as inflation falls away, but it is strong now and will remain strong through this halvening and likely the next.

I have spoken to investment bankers at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan who do TA on Bitcoin and in their arrogance they have never heard of the halvening.   So they can’t plan for it and they can’t front run it.   Even among retail investors, most of whom are focused on chasing shitcoins, they have no understanding of how the entire market is run by the drum beat of Daddy Bitcoin.

We sit in a privileged position because we live and breathe this every day.  But don’t make the mistake of extrapolating our knowledge and experience to the broader market.  

I agree that we have halving knowledge, but here comes the test...
If this time around halving and S/F extension to above 50 (closer to gold) would produce 55K-90K prices (conservatively), THEN our position was truly privileged. If not, then it is still mostly random fluctuation. I hope for the former and I am keenly aware of the latter.

Most of you were probably not around the Internet bubble 1. In 1997-2000 it was simply great. No matter what you bought (out of major and even minor Internet stocks), you were doing great. Then came B2B Internet stocks and early biotechs (with no product) that inflated to tens of billions almost from the get go.
Anyone investing in these stocks has seen only a tremendous bull.
Then it all crashed (even AMZN -from $100 to $5).
If you look at the charts of the Internet stocks during 1997-2000, they looked peachy and projected fundamentals (at least of  AMZN, EBAy, etc) were even better than expected. Still everything crashed.

Granted, those stocks did not have a 'halving engine' beneath them and maybe this would be a critical factor.
However, litecoin (not bitcoin) has similar halving process, yet it crashed very badly AFTER undergoing halving recently (albeit it was rising toward halving). Maybe it does not count because it is a minor coin, but arguing that halving works only on one entity is presumptuous.

TL;DR The upcoming halving would be a huge test of the 'halving engine' and S/F guideline idea. Fingers crossed.

Gosh Biodom.  

You have a tendency to be overly skeptical regarding the bullish case for bitcoin, and even the realistic case regarding what is really going on here, in bitcoinlandia.  

If I did not see you on a regular basis in this here thread (and tending to NOT spout any nonsense about shitcoins), I would speculate that you are susceptible to getting lured into some altcoin or some other nonsense.        

LOL... i might get lured into selling a bit of btc and buying a beemer, but not into buying altcoins with btc proceeds.
That would be stupid, all things considered.
You can call me long term bullish. I was bearish when we went down hard from 13.8 and sold a  little around there (12-13K interval) while predicting 8k, which you, incidentally, poo-pooed repeatedly. Who was right in that very instance? A rhetorical question.

Now, my thesis is that 6-12 mo after halving planB's idea would be tested. It would either succeed or fail.
As a scientist, I am used to the falsification of ideas as an essential method of finding the truth (strictly speaking, rather falsification of the hypothesis).
At the moment, I am skeptical that he is right. Why? Because no other market behaves in a predictable fashion.
However, the chance of planB success is non-zero and I root for him. My portfolio would be thankful as well.

[dyask]

great! it sounds like a not so easy system for real pros. but what the hell do you mean with SOMA. I just asked before but probably you didn't read it.

Sorry Gyrsur, didn't notice. It's an inside game for WO-ers...

Straight Outta My Ass.

Meaning, I'm not that good at TA - mainly because I don't put a lot of faith in it.  I do have hunches, but they're wrong half of the time. So I plan for both scenarios. If I smell storms, I chicken out. When I think there's a decent chance to make a little profit one way or another, I put my big toe in the water. If it feels OK, I get knee deep. And so on. I never denied it does take a little work. What matters with me is that I can do it with a cool, detached head, without impulse "recovery" trades that would drag me in the abyss. Admittedly, cool comes easier once you manage to sit on a profit buffer AND you only stake all games with the same fixed amount, stashing away the excess into cold storage, with some sensible schedule you find works for you.

I'm pretty sure TA is short for SOMA.

[HairyMaclairy]

*incoherent ranting*

Yes.  About a year and a half ago, pretty much Hairy admitted that he was relying on fractal comparisons, and surely I have been vocally critical of such fractal comparison reliances, even though they have largely been playing out - with, of course, some upwards deviation with our 3.5x outburst from April 1 to end of June, and currently what appears to be a return to the mean of the fractal... So whatever the fuck lack of comparison seems to still be working out in a very comparable way.


So, maybe there has never been such a system in the world, but who fucking cares?  It still has worked out quite well in bitcoin for a lot of us BTC HODLers and accumulators to be continuing to become richie and to increase our richness through the fact that BTC prices continue to go up in the longer term.. just like the silly fucking ass fractal comparisons seem to suggest.  Go figure?  

Now you roach, on the other hand, have had some mediocre gold price appreciation during this calendar year (which has gotten you all excited, and even a bit more cocky than usual), and maybe you should be taking advantage of that mediocre gold price appreciation and getting into a real future asset.. ie bitcoin?  dumb ass.

There is no TA comparison in legacy financial markets because there is no comparable asset in legacy financial markets.

There is no financial instrument with fixed supply to be paid out over a century where the rate of supply halves every four years as regular as the Olympics.  It is this regular drum beat that causes us to pound out the same patterns.  Yes the drum beat will get weaker over time as inflation falls away, but it is strong now and will remain strong through this halvening and likely the next.

I have spoken to investment bankers at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan who do TA on Bitcoin and in their arrogance they have never heard of the halvening.   So they can’t plan for it and they can’t front run it.   Even among retail investors, most of whom are focused on chasing shitcoins, they have no understanding of how the entire market is run by the drum beat of Daddy Bitcoin.

We sit in a privileged position because we live and breathe this every day.  But don’t make the mistake of extrapolating our knowledge and experience to the broader market.  

I agree that we have halving knowledge, but here comes the test...
If this time around halving and S/F extension to above 50 (closer to gold) would produce 55K-90K prices (conservatively), THEN our position was truly privileged. If not, then it is still mostly random fluctuation. I hope for the former and I am keenly aware of the latter.

Most of you were probably not around the Internet bubble 1. In 1997-2000 it was simply great. No matter what you bought (out of major and even minor Internet stocks), you were doing great. Then came B2B Internet stocks and early biotechs (with no product) that inflated to tens of billions almost from the get go.
Anyone investing in these stocks has seen only a tremendous bull.
Then it all crashed (even AMZN -from $100 to $5).
If you look at the charts of the Internet stocks during 1997-2000, they looked peachy and projected fundamentals (at least of  AMZN, EBAy, etc) were even better than expected. Still everything crashed.

Granted, those stocks did not have a 'halving engine' beneath them and maybe this would be a critical factor.
However, litecoin (not bitcoin) has similar halving process, yet it crashed very badly AFTER undergoing halving recently (albeit it was rising toward halving). Maybe it does not count because it is a minor coin, but arguing that halving works only on one entity is presumptuous.

TL;DR The upcoming halving would be a huge test of the 'halving engine' and S/F guideline idea. Fingers crossed.

Gosh Biodom.  

You have a tendency to be overly skeptical regarding the bullish case for bitcoin, and even the realistic case regarding what is really going on here, in bitcoinlandia.  

If I did not see you on a regular basis in this here thread (and tending to NOT spout any nonsense about shitcoins), I would speculate that you are susceptible to getting lured into some altcoin or some other nonsense.        

LOL... i might get lured into selling a bit of btc and buying a beemer, but not into buying altcoins with btc proceeds.
That would be stupid, all things considered.
You can call me long term bullish. I was bearish when we went down hard from 13.8 and sold a  little around there (12-13K interval) while predicting 8k, which you, incidentally, poo-pooed repeatedly. Who was right in that very instance? A rhetorical question.

Now, my thesis is that 6-12 mo after halving planB's idea would be tested. It would either succeed or fail.
As a scientist, I am used to the falsification of ideas as an essential method of finding the truth (strictly speaking, rather falsification of the hypothesis).
At the moment, I am skeptical that he is right. Why? Because no other market behaves in a predictable fashion.
However, the chance of planB success is non-zero and I root for him. My portfolio would be thankful as well.

It is entirely predictable that the SP500 will be higher than it is today in 20 years time.  

All rational markets are predictable given a long enough time frame.

Given, we can argue all day long whether Bitcoin is a rational market. 

[Biodom]

*incoherent ranting*

Yes.  About a year and a half ago, pretty much Hairy admitted that he was relying on fractal comparisons, and surely I have been vocally critical of such fractal comparison reliances, even though they have largely been playing out - with, of course, some upwards deviation with our 3.5x outburst from April 1 to end of June, and currently what appears to be a return to the mean of the fractal... So whatever the fuck lack of comparison seems to still be working out in a very comparable way.


So, maybe there has never been such a system in the world, but who fucking cares?  It still has worked out quite well in bitcoin for a lot of us BTC HODLers and accumulators to be continuing to become richie and to increase our richness through the fact that BTC prices continue to go up in the longer term.. just like the silly fucking ass fractal comparisons seem to suggest.  Go figure?  

Now you roach, on the other hand, have had some mediocre gold price appreciation during this calendar year (which has gotten you all excited, and even a bit more cocky than usual), and maybe you should be taking advantage of that mediocre gold price appreciation and getting into a real future asset.. ie bitcoin?  dumb ass.

There is no TA comparison in legacy financial markets because there is no comparable asset in legacy financial markets.

There is no financial instrument with fixed supply to be paid out over a century where the rate of supply halves every four years as regular as the Olympics.  It is this regular drum beat that causes us to pound out the same patterns.  Yes the drum beat will get weaker over time as inflation falls away, but it is strong now and will remain strong through this halvening and likely the next.

I have spoken to investment bankers at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan who do TA on Bitcoin and in their arrogance they have never heard of the halvening.   So they can’t plan for it and they can’t front run it.   Even among retail investors, most of whom are focused on chasing shitcoins, they have no understanding of how the entire market is run by the drum beat of Daddy Bitcoin.

We sit in a privileged position because we live and breathe this every day.  But don’t make the mistake of extrapolating our knowledge and experience to the broader market.  

I agree that we have halving knowledge, but here comes the test...
If this time around halving and S/F extension to above 50 (closer to gold) would produce 55K-90K prices (conservatively), THEN our position was truly privileged. If not, then it is still mostly random fluctuation. I hope for the former and I am keenly aware of the latter.

Most of you were probably not around the Internet bubble 1. In 1997-2000 it was simply great. No matter what you bought (out of major and even minor Internet stocks), you were doing great. Then came B2B Internet stocks and early biotechs (with no product) that inflated to tens of billions almost from the get go.
Anyone investing in these stocks has seen only a tremendous bull.
Then it all crashed (even AMZN -from $100 to $5).
If you look at the charts of the Internet stocks during 1997-2000, they looked peachy and projected fundamentals (at least of  AMZN, EBAy, etc) were even better than expected. Still everything crashed.

Granted, those stocks did not have a 'halving engine' beneath them and maybe this would be a critical factor.
However, litecoin (not bitcoin) has similar halving process, yet it crashed very badly AFTER undergoing halving recently (albeit it was rising toward halving). Maybe it does not count because it is a minor coin, but arguing that halving works only on one entity is presumptuous.

TL;DR The upcoming halving would be a huge test of the 'halving engine' and S/F guideline idea. Fingers crossed.

Gosh Biodom.  

You have a tendency to be overly skeptical regarding the bullish case for bitcoin, and even the realistic case regarding what is really going on here, in bitcoinlandia.  

If I did not see you on a regular basis in this here thread (and tending to NOT spout any nonsense about shitcoins), I would speculate that you are susceptible to getting lured into some altcoin or some other nonsense.        

LOL... i might get lured into selling a bit of btc and buying a beemer, but not into buying altcoins with btc proceeds.
That would be stupid, all things considered.
You can call me long term bullish. I was bearish when we went down hard from 13.8 and sold a  little around there (12-13K interval) while predicting 8k, which you, incidentally, poo-pooed repeatedly. Who was right in that very instance? A rhetorical question.

Now, my thesis is that 6-12 mo after halving planB's idea would be tested. It would either succeed or fail.
As a scientist, I am used to the falsification of ideas as an essential method of finding the truth (strictly speaking, rather falsification of the hypothesis).
At the moment, I am skeptical that he is right. Why? Because no other market behaves in a predictable fashion.
However, the chance of planB success is non-zero and I root for him. My portfolio would be thankful as well.

It is entirely predictable that the SP500 will be higher than it is today in 20 years time.  

All rational markets are predictable given a long enough time frame.

Given, we can argue all day long whether Bitcoin is a rational market.  

No, it is not (SP500). SP500 1 Jan 1929 - 24.86, SP500 1949-15.36 (61.7% of 20 year earlier value).
Nikkei- 38916 in 1989 (30 years ago!), 21597 now (55.5% of the value thirty years ago).
If anything, my favorite scenario would be Dow going to 39K (a la Nikkei), then down by 50-60% and fluctuating around there for 10-15 years.
It might happen, but I am not betting on it...I am mostly long equities in a smaller than previously % of the portfolio.

[JayJuanGee]

[ edited out]

LOL... i might get lured into selling a bit of btc and buying a beemer,

beeemees are nice, especially if you have some extra discretionary money, and you feel like rewarding yourself.

but not into buying altcoins with btc proceeds.
That would be stupid, all things considered.
You can call me long term bullish. I was bearish when we went down hard from 13.8 and sold a  little around there (12-13K interval) while predicting 8k, which you, incidentally, poo-pooed repeatedly. Who was right in that very instance? A rhetorical question.

I am glad that you feel vindicated enough to pat yourself on the back.

Rhetorical or not.

By the way, you likely already know that I don't really tend to predict short-term BTC prices, but just complain quite a bit about anyone predicting BTC prices (especially when negative).   

Now, my thesis is that 6-12 mo after halving planB's idea would be tested. It would either succeed or fail.
As a scientist, I am used to the falsification of ideas as an essential method of finding the truth (strictly speaking, rather falsification of the hypothesis).
At the moment, I am skeptical that he is right. Why? Because no other market behaves in a predictable fashion.

I think that lack of predictability is part of the reason that I frequently get so pissed off at Hairy mcsmartie-pants, yet he tends to be correct quite a lot with his quasi-reliance on fractal comparisons, even if not precise, well within a decent ballpark of correctness.

However, the chance of planB success is non-zero and I root for him. My portfolio would be thankful as well.

I cannot recall exactly what plan b is saying, but he relies on stock to flow analysis, right?  Is he asserting numbers much north of $100k within 6 to 18 months after the halvening?

Let's just assume that the number is much north of $100k within the next couple of years.
Even if planB might end up being a bit off, the "non-zero" is way the fuck higher than a mere "non-zero," and even though I might be having some difficulties narrowing it down and putting a number on it, but it probably is in the 20% plus arena.. which are decently good odds.. and of course HODLers  like us will be well advantaged by such bullish scenarios playing out, and many of us do not even need that kind of BTC price performance to be quite well off with our BTC investment.. and even its so far price appreciation.

[HairyMaclairy]

Meh may need to concede that point, even if the data is cherry picked

Japan tho is not rational.  They do not have a functional bankruptcy system.  Instead zombie companies stagger on forever.