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Question: Will bitcoin ever go below $10K again in your lifetime?
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 22643297 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
jbreher
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October 22, 2019, 03:38:56 AM



Quote
Next major upgrade I'm waiting for is the new Mac Pro.

Likewise. As soon as Pro Tools is qualified on macOS 10.15, I be pulling the trigger. (I'm assuming that will be after the new Mac Pro is shipping).

Do you have to pay for the equivalent of windows kb updates in macOS? I've never used it, but I read somewhere you get charged for updates.

Well, I don't know what 'windows kb updates' are, so I don't know. OS Patches? No charge. Next major OS rev? No charge. Next patch, minor, or major rev of bundled applications? No charge.

Of course, the entry for the new Mac Pro is $6K. But their free updates policy runs throughout their product line.
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October 22, 2019, 03:59:29 AM

JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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October 22, 2019, 04:38:54 AM

Current Weekly outlook: TD Sequential 9 currently up for grabs this week, haven't seen one of these since April 2019 and July 2018.
Full moon didn't do sh*t to decide, hoping this week can define a direction for the following weeks/months.
Looking at three potential scenarios long-term, as shown by A (bullish TD 9), B (wedge breakdown) and C ("bullish TD 9).

Part 9: TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction?
..


Source: TradingView, October 20th 2019

Next week looks set for a bullish TD Sequential 9 on the Weekly chart that hasn't been seen since July 2018. Back then this led to a 40% increase in the price of Bitcoin followed by 4 months of consolidation. This scenario is labeled "A". Extrapolation C is the inverse of the "bearish" TD 9 in April 2019 that led to a continuation of the bull trend. Hence, C is labeled as the "bullish" TD 9 but would be the most bearish scenario. Scenario B is the extrapolation of the 2018 wedge breakdown, as documented in Part 1 of the Bitcoin repeating history series.

The two year vpvr "average price" is referenced as a key level to break (and close) above at $8376.



I am not sure if I understand the overall proposition, of the above.

Shouldn't three possible scenarios be something more closely resembling: 1) Up 2) down or 3) flat?

How could you have proposed three possible scenarios that are: 1) Up 2) down or 3) up?   Confusioning!!!

Updated the quote, highlighted the relevant scenario. The "bearish" TD 9 in April was bullish af basically, hence if the opposite occurred the "bullish" TD 9 could be bearish af.
Obviously anything could happen, like another 8 different scenarios that somewhat overlap. I just like my comparisons to see that this current price movement isn't that unique at all.
Hope that it explains it, not very good at explaining these things. Only making drawings really.
This wasn't meant to tell you where the price is going, but potentially why, same as Part 8.

Actually, I prefer to predict where the price has been rather than where it is going, too - especially if we are talking about short term predictions and the future.    Wink
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October 22, 2019, 04:42:40 AM

Bitcoin ATMs installation increases by 50%, 1900 ATMs installed last year

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On average, around five Bitcoin ATMs are being installed every single day.
North America alone consists of 76.3% of all global Bitcoin ATMs.

https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-atms-installation-increases-by-50-1900-atms-installed-last-year-201910220059
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October 22, 2019, 04:53:52 AM

I'm starting to ramble on like JJG here. I better wrap this up.

Yeah.  You would not want to ramble like me, you might start making some sense.

hahahahahahaha    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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October 22, 2019, 05:12:52 AM
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I still think that we are still in a kind of late 2015 to early 2016 period... still waiting for the May 2016 breakout.  

We already had our October/November 2015 break out, and that was when we broke up to $13,880.  Of course, no two breakouts or chart patterns are going to look alike, but still Majormax, you should at least be attempting to compare the correct areas of the fractal.  AmiNOTrite?

Yes absolutely... Please show me which are the correct areas on that particular chart.

Unless I read your post incorrectly, I was only trying to suggest that your earlier comment seemed to have been suggesting that we are in an August 2017-like scenario currently.  So, I thought that was a wrong assumption.  Again, maybe I misunderstood your earlier post, but that was why I was trying to suggest that it seems that we are still in early 2016 - and I am not even trying to suggest where we go from here... except maybe up in the next few years ... without any real presumption about whether more correction might happen from where we are right now.

Not Aug'17 scenario, but Feb '18, the shape of a decline from a peak.  I am only responding to the chart that was posted. The analysis (not mine) was apparently that the action of the last 6  months was comparable to some other period (fractal) and suggestion was that it portended a rise. Well, all I could see from that chart was a similarity (in chart shape, which is what a fractal is)  , between the last 6 months and Aug 2017 to Feb 2018. I don't really understand the poster's assertion.

On another point, the 60-85% decline from a parabolic peak does not need to be from an ATH.  The danger I was going on and on about in  Jun and ever since, was that a parabolic move failed at 13500 approx. That is nearly always bad news, holding price back for longer in a bull market , or leading to the next downphase in a bear market.

On balance I still believe we are in a longer bull phase, but it is unwise to entirely dismiss alternative scenarios (or call them 'impossible'). The chart has issued this warning. It would be more positive if the present price of ~8k had been arrived at by a steady rise May thru October, rather than the too-fast failed attempt at 14k. As it is , the chart now shows a distinct falling trend from July. That is merely observation.

I doubt that either of us are going to assert that any scenario is impossible, the various scenarios just become a matter of probability and also the extent to which we see the rise from $4,200 to $13,880 as a kind of failure to break out or as a break out that just needs some time to consolidate before moving further up.  Even though, to me, you seem more inclined to recognize some kind of failure to break out, I consider the matter to be a kind of unexpected equity cushion that has been created, and likely some difficulties to return all the way back to $4,200 break out point which is a kind of relief in my thinking to have so much cushion between our current price and the $4,200 and below territory in which we were floating prior to April 1.  

Yeah, we can talk about preferences that bitcoin would have moved more slowly and gradually up to $8k, like you said, but that is way too fucking boring for bitcoin.  She does not work like that.  She works, partly, by engaging in exaggerated price moves that no one expected, and she does it because she can.  And, for that reason, no one really has any meaningful ability to predict what she is going to do next, except for knowing that if we have enough capital, then we can attempt to push her beyond expectations (and perhaps that does not always work, but some whales are going to make some efforts in that direction and try to see if they can get their momentum to stick and to either make a profit on the way up or make a profit on the way down).

Probably you and I are not saying anything too much different from each other, except that you seem to want to emphasize down, and I continue to want to remain hopeful about any up that might occur.  Each of us believes that we are more correct than the other in how we describe bitcoin price dynamics, and in the end, we are saying very similar things with somewhat disparate emphases.

Charts can be dismissed as so much claptrap of course, but if we are going to analyse them, may as well do it properly.

In the end, if anyone doesn't like the conclusion of chart analysis, they can say these things don't apply to BTC. Just pick a number out of the air.

I agree.  Fuck the charts, unless they say something that I like.   Wink

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October 22, 2019, 06:08:27 AM


You actually think this will happen? These are insane amounts of money. Shows more like how hard it will be for Bitcoin to take the next 10x to me. (If Market Cap isnt fake)
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October 22, 2019, 08:58:42 AM

Opera Becomes First Major Browser to Enable Direct Bitcoin Payments

Quote
Web browser Opera now allows making payments with Bitcoin (BTC) directly inside the browser.

The company announced the news in a press release shared with Cointelegraph on Oct. 21, detailing that Opera’s 350 million users can now send and receive BTC directly from the browser, as well as use the cryptocurrency for purchasing goods and services on e-commerce websites.

Additionally, the browser now enables adding a Bitcoin and TRON (TRX) card into the built-in Crypto Wallet to keep track of the cryptocurrency owned. Charles Hamel, head of crypto at Opera, commented on the new feature launch:

Quote
“We believe that opening our browser to more blockchains, including Bitcoin, is the logical next step to making our solution more relevant to anyone who has a Bitcoin crypto wallet and would like to do things with their cryptocurrencies beyond just keeping them in an account.”
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October 22, 2019, 12:33:06 PM

Big moves are coming, buckle up!

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“In the U.S., and other countries around the world, it is just a matter of time before we see massive disruption,’’ Tobias Adrian, the director of the IMF’s monetary and capital markets department said in an interview. “There is at least the potential that new technology might lead to a new global payment system fairly rapidly.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-16/fed-drags-feet-as-digital-money-revolution-tests-central-banks
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October 22, 2019, 12:59:38 PM

Although some already call it digital gold.

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#bitcoin .. like clockwork


Plan₿
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October 22, 2019, 01:17:51 PM
Last edit: October 22, 2019, 01:31:25 PM by MarquiseMuseum

I am sorry to state the obvious, this but at this point it is evident that world stock indexes and big business will clone high capacity chains like Waves to migrate old world means of production in a regulated censorship enabled environment.

Merchants are bound to the land owned by governments and they cannot physically resist high level decision making because profit is tied to machines of production that are land locked.

It is a bad outcome for this decentralized space as far as merchant onramping but some alts may be able to capture market share and grow by mimicing stock indexes in a decentralized format.

My point here is that Merchants will of course want to launch branded cryptos with high capacity inorder to extract added value of blockchain technology but it is probable that a vast majority of extant resources will be migrated to government controlled indexes like Nasdaq, Nikkei, etc, using custom platforms.

I think Bitcoin and many top coins will find competition difficult against establishment. I think Bitcoin is vastly overvalued.

I also think that in 5 years from now, Google, Darpa or Boston Dynamics will have paired autonomous robots with an AGI powered chain using concept of Ethereums original design. I could be a boon to society much more impactful than industrial revolution.

Onramping mainstream userbase will have little price impact, real wealth is in top 1% of economy as everyone knows, because they own the means of production.

Decentralized space excluding top 5 since it is not decentralized, maybe will become the peoples economy. It is a class division of the world.

Bitcoin is already owned by the old establishment so using it for decentralized and libertarian reasons is a bit redundant. It's a good vehicle of gambling and speculation, so enjoy your continued debate, I think it is looking at -90% market cap reduction to be more inline with top alts.

Because I just don't see how capital flight into crypto from fortune 500 can be realized because of the land locked means of production and not to mention logistics industry which is controlled by militara through nation borders and customs.
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October 22, 2019, 01:31:19 PM

I am sorry to state the obvious, this but at this point it is evident that world stock indexes and big business will clone high capacity chains like Waves to migrate old world means of production in a regulated censorship enabled environment.

Merchants are bound to the land owned by governments and they cannot physically resist high level decision making because profit is tied to machines of production that are land locked.

It is a bad outcome for this decentralized space as far as merchant onramping but some alts may be able to capture market share and grow by mimicing stock indexes in a decentralized format.

My point here is that Merchants will of course want to launch branded cryptos with high capacity inorder to extract added value of blockchain technology but it is probable that a vast majority of extant resources will be migrated to government controlled indexes like Nasdaq, Nikkei, etc, using custom platforms.

I think Bitcoin and many top coins will find competition difficult against establishment. I think Bitcoin is vastly overvalued.

I also think that in 5 years from now, Google, Darpa or Boston Dynamics will have paired autonomous robots with an AGI powered chain using concept of Ethereums original design.

Onramping mainstream userbase will have little price impact, real wealth is in top 1% of economy as everyone knows, because they own the means of production.

Decentralized space excluding top 5 since it is not decentralized, maybe will become the peoples economy. It is a class division of the world.

Bitcoin is already owned by the old establishment so using it for decentralized and libertarian reasons is a bit redundant. It's a good vehicle of gambling and speculation, so enjoy your continued debate.

What benefits does blockchain provide once you have removed the decentralization and censorship resistance?

In the cases you describe the private organizations would be better off using a more robust and efficient conventional database.  Blockchain is big, slow and clunky.  There is little reason for companies to adopt it if you take away the reason it is valuable in the first place.

There is a major paradigm shift i n the making.  It's confusing to try to predict how it will unfold.  But I am not sure I can see your scenario really working.
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October 22, 2019, 01:37:06 PM

It's benefits are multi fold but programmable currency is a game changer when paired with computing power. There is incentive to keep such tech regulated.

World industry has expressed significant interest in blockchain technology have they not? I think they are incentivized regardless of decentralized aspects, frankly, I don't think they care at all about decentralization, quite the contrary.

Establishment migration to blockchain is further incentivized by eroding confidence in fiat.

Fiat collapse is a non issue once it occurrs, because the world is already migrated by then.

So it is a false hope to rely on fiat erosion for decentralized crypto to gain alot of value. It could be an industry for the new underclass, whereas elite is on censorship enabled platforms.

Index platforms like waves, stellar, nexus may be able to capture share of new merchant businesses, but probably not established fortune 500's. This is not Bitcoins space at all, closest thing is XCP and it's just so dysfunctional, I used it in 2017 with Marquise $Museum.
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October 22, 2019, 01:46:18 PM

...

I think Bitcoin and many top coins will find competition difficult against establishment. I think Bitcoin is vastly overvalued.
...
I also think that in 5 years from now, Google, Darpa or Boston Dynamics will have paired autonomous robots with an AGI powered chain using concept of Ethereums original design. I could be a boon to society much more impactful than industrial revolution.
...
Bitcoin is already owned by the old establishment so using it for decentralized and libertarian reasons is a bit redundant. It's a good vehicle of gambling and speculation, so enjoy your continued debate, I think it is looking at -90% market cap reduction to be more inline with top  

Easy ignore.

Can yoy please fuck off to the ethereum sub or whatever the fuck you came from please?
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October 22, 2019, 01:48:23 PM

Sept-Oct-Nov season in

2019
2018
2017

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October 22, 2019, 01:48:24 PM
Last edit: October 22, 2019, 02:05:00 PM by MarquiseMuseum

...

I think Bitcoin and many top coins will find competition difficult against establishment. I think Bitcoin is vastly overvalued.
...
I also think that in 5 years from now, Google, Darpa or Boston Dynamics will have paired autonomous robots with an AGI powered chain using concept of Ethereums original design. I could be a boon to society much more impactful than industrial revolution.
...
Bitcoin is already owned by the old establishment so using it for decentralized and libertarian reasons is a bit redundant. It's a good vehicle of gambling and speculation, so enjoy your continued debate, I think it is looking at -90% market cap reduction to be more inline with top  

Easy ignore.

Can yoy please fuck off to the ethereum sub or whatever the fuck you came from please?

Construct an argument.



Blockchain is big, slow and clunky,

Only Bitcoin, Ethereum and those old generation coins.
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October 22, 2019, 02:59:55 PM
Merited by jojo69 (1)

...

I think Bitcoin and many top coins will find competition difficult against establishment. I think Bitcoin is vastly overvalued.
...
I also think that in 5 years from now, Google, Darpa or Boston Dynamics will have paired autonomous robots with an AGI powered chain using concept of Ethereums original design. I could be a boon to society much more impactful than industrial revolution.
...
Bitcoin is already owned by the old establishment so using it for decentralized and libertarian reasons is a bit redundant. It's a good vehicle of gambling and speculation, so enjoy your continued debate, I think it is looking at -90% market cap reduction to be more inline with top  

Easy ignore.

Can yoy please fuck off to the ethereum sub or whatever the fuck you came from please?

Construct an argument.


Nobody here is required to challenge your worldview there buddy.

"If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry"
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October 22, 2019, 03:05:10 PM

https://twitter.com/trylolli/status/1186657981418659841?s=21

@trylolli
bank of america is down

BITCOIN (aka BANK OF THE WORLD) NEVER GOES DOWN
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October 22, 2019, 03:07:32 PM


@alistairmilne
Gold is pretty, shiny, etc. but you can't send it anywhere in the world within minutes as you can with Bitcoin.

.... this is why I Bitcoin. No borders. No limits. No permission. No trust.

https://twitter.com/alistairmilne/status/1186544152122707969?s=21

Don’t @ me r0ach
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October 22, 2019, 03:34:55 PM

...

I think Bitcoin and many top coins will find competition difficult against establishment. I think Bitcoin is vastly overvalued.
...
I also think that in 5 years from now, Google, Darpa or Boston Dynamics will have paired autonomous robots with an AGI powered chain using concept of Ethereums original design. I could be a boon to society much more impactful than industrial revolution.
...
Bitcoin is already owned by the old establishment so using it for decentralized and libertarian reasons is a bit redundant. It's a good vehicle of gambling and speculation, so enjoy your continued debate, I think it is looking at -90% market cap reduction to be more inline with top  

Easy ignore.

Can yoy please fuck off to the ethereum sub or whatever the fuck you came from please?

Construct an argument.


Nobody here is required to challenge your worldview there buddy.

"If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry"

Too bad, I will invest my money elsewhere. Perfectly open to x100 leverage long BTC if I can find a few counter points to defend $150 bn market value.
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