Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[KeyserSoze]

The nightmare of the loss of Net Neutrality has begun. Could bitcoin be targeted?
http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/21/technology/verizon-netflix/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

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[adamstgBit]

Who the hell is deleting so many posts from this thread?

In a self-moderated thread? Perhaps the moderator, AdamstgBit.

it wasn't me, I very very rarely delete any post...

[Arcas]

Who the hell is deleting so many posts from this thread?

In a self-moderated thread? Perhaps the moderator, AdamstgBit.

it wasn't me, I very very rarely delete any post...

[magicmexican]

stamp on the pump?

[JorgeStolfi]

Thanks for the kind words, I bear no ill feelings.

I would rather not enter into lengthy discussions again.  You have read many of my arguments, I have read yours, but obviously neither side has convinced the other, and that does not seem likely to change.  Logic and mathematics are only part of what defines one's opinions and probabilities.  Experience, with things and with people, is even more important; and it cannot be easily shared.

Let me just clarify my position a bit more:

* It is true that I do not know the technical aspects in detail.  But I know enough to believe that there is nothing wrong technically with the concept.  (I was surprised by the "malleability bug", and surprised that it did so much damage; but I trust that it is not serious, and that all buggy software out there will soon be fixed.)

  My skepticism has to do only with the economical, political, and practical aspects of bitcoin.  We all agree that bitcoin is an original concept, that does not fit well into any conventional economic model.  Therefore, my ignorance about those aspects of bitcoin does not seem to be much greater than anyone else's, even that of the bitcoin pioneers.


* Also, one does not have to harpoon a whale before being allowed to form and express one's opinion about whaling.


* Once again: I distinguish the "bitcoin project" (creating an internet payment method that is cheaper and/or faster and/or safer than other alternatives) from "investing in bitcoin" (buying bitcoins with the goal of making a profit, whether in crypto or in "fiat").

  I very much wish that the bitcoin project succeeds, meaning that crypto-coins (any or all of them) eventually will be used by common people for their advantages (rather than to show support for the project).  Even though I still see some big obstacles on the road to that goal.

  As for investing in bitcoin, that would be a sensible proposal only if the expected future price were to keep rising more than inflation plus 5% per year above the present price.  That expectation, today, does not seem to be supported by any valid argument, over any time scale. On the contrary, I see good arguments to expect the opposite: that the price will mostly stagnate or decrease, perhaps even to zero.  That is why I believe that bitcoins today are, objectively, a terrible investment option, and should not be recommended to anyone as such.

  If it is indeed true (as some have claimed), that the bitcoin project will succed only if many more people invest in bitcoins now, then methinks that the project has a big problem right there.


* Being a "newbie" (who has been poking around for only three months, instead of all of three years) has its advantages, methinks.  It seems that some people got convinced early on of certain "truths" by arguments that seemed strong at the time, but have lost their weight in the last six months.

  So, a newbie may actually get a clearer picture of the bitcoin phenomenon by questioning and rejecting some of those "truths", that, for the "old-timers", were categorically proved long ago.

  For example, the "demand/supply formula", by which one used to "prove" that bitcoins will one day be extremely valuable, has been considerably weakened in the last six months by the existence and persistence of other crypto-coins.  If one replaces "bitcoin" by "crypto-coin" in the argument, the denominator becomes infinity, and the resulting price is zero.

  Ditto for the "network effect" and "first-player advantage" that were supposed to prevent the appearance of alternative coins.   Or the myths about crypto-payments being untraceable and impossible for governments to restrict, tax, or regulate.  Methinks that Silk Road and China disproved those claims in the clearest possible way --- yet there are still people who not only repeat them, but see them as the most important advantages of crypto-coins.

  Another random example of this "newbie's advantage", I think, is being open minded about the role of the Chinese exchanges (and Chinese bank holidays, and, yes, even Chinese sleep hours) in determining the market price of bitcoin -- a possibility that some old-timers apparently won't even discuss, perhaps for sentimental or political reasons.

  And, of course, a newbie who does not own any bitcoins will probably have a more dispassionate view of probabilities and possibilities than an old-timer who invested several years of work in the project, and owns a few thousand coins.


* I am not a libertarian.

  I hate the banks we have, all of them; but I believe that banks of some type are necessary, even if the bitcoin project succeeds.  I do not trust governments, even those that I voted for; but I believe that they are essential, and should be democratized, opened, and held on a short leash, rather than abolished.

  Therefore, I am absolutely not at all excited by the idea that bitcoin will be a libertarian Golem, the magic weapon that will destroy banks and governments and bring forth the libertarian utopia --- whether the non-libertarian majority likes that or not.

  But, fortunately, I have no fear that bitcoin will do that.  One thing that I have learned in life is that social and political problems cannot be solved by technological gimmicks alone. The car did not abolish national frontiers, electronic voting did not eliminate election fraud, the internet did not free us from copyright, Google did not abolish censorship, and so on.

  Without a strong political and social effort to solve a problem, a purely technological solution will be banished or heavily restricted, as China already did with bitcoin; or it will be co-opted, and then it will become part of the problem. (Google, for example, has now become a very effective tool to hide "undesirable" internet contents from the public, rather than to help the public find such contents).

  So I see absolutely zero chance that governments and banks will just sit there, sucking their thumbs and whining, while a small ill-coordinated band of nerds robs them of their powers and profits.  If that is what bitcoin means to you, prepare to be severely disappointed.


Anyway, sorry if this reply does not address all your points, but I fear it is too long already.

Till next time, and all the best, to all of you.

[KFR]

Transaction malleability is not a bug.

[derpinheimer]

Transaction malleability is not a bug.

Its a squirrel, isnt it?

[adamstgBit]

We've touched 530 3 times now and popped back up.... can we call the bottom yet?

Nope. Just resistance for now.  Until this Gox things unwinds or unravels that resistance is in major jeopardy. One more bad update could very easily send it plummeting into the 400s.

the support is strong. so far all signs point that this is bottom. I don't think any gox update can push us below this 530 support.

I agree that we won't really get moving until the gox issue is sorted out, but i seriously doubt that the support is in "major jeopardy"

gox is already dead to alot of poeple, whether it fails miserably or lives to trade another day, the result will be the same, less uncertainty, more confidence,  UP!

[KFR]

Transaction malleability is not a bug.

Its a squirrel, isnt it?

It's a documented characteristic of documented features.

Sadly some people didn't read all the right documentation. 

[PoolMinor]

it wasn't me, I very very rarely delete any post...

I delete my own, thanks.

[MatTheCat]

Lol, I'm not lying you sad fucker, I'm taking it easy and having fun while making loads of money, I never had better time in my life so of course I'll chill around.

We might be more inclined to believe you if you had ever actually posted anything relating to your amazing Bitcoin trades actually before the deed occurred, like rpietila has, like I have, and actaully like lots of people have....just not you.

Since you never have never once called a good trade since Bitcoin went into reverse, u just seem like yet another stupid twat that changes his tune only after events turned out in complete contrast to all the shite you were spouting previously.

A stupid fkn clueless tosser, but only one of many around this place, unfortunately.

the support is strong. so far all signs point that this is bottom. I don't think any gox update can push us below this 530 support.

I agree that we won't really get moving until the gox issue is sorted out, but i seriously doubt that the support is in "major jeopardy"

gox is already dead to alot of poeple, whether it fails miserably or lives to trade another day, the result will be the same, less uncertainty, more confidence,  UP!

Please explain what you find 'strong' about this 'support' at $530?

I seen a grind down to $530 on largeish volume, and a 'reaction' at this price level which has occurred on very low volume. I am reading through Martin Prings Tech Analysis book and he reckons that this sort of situation in any chart is a very bearish indicator. Am I missing something?

I hope I am, as since I can't short anymore due to lack of trustworthy short exchanges, I am basically waiting on trend to reverse before I can start turning a buck on this vapour asset once again, but I just feel that it is going to be a very long and frustrating wait. If it wasn't going to be a long and frustrating wait as the price grinds further and further down, then it wouldn't be the bottom. I don't think post bubble bottom's are found to great fanfare and optimism about the future value of the asset, such as the tone of your post implies.

[micalith]

so, gox going down, everyone else going up. Have we finally disengaged from gox price for good?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

Thanks for the kind words, I bear no ill feelings.

I would rather not enter into lengthy discussions again.  You have read many of my arguments, I have read yours, but obviously neither side has convinced the other, and that does not seem likely to change.  Logic and mathematics are only part of what defines one's opinions and probabilities.  Experience, with things and with people, is even more important; and it cannot be easily shared.

Let me just clarify my position a bit more:

* It is true that I do not know the technical aspects in detail.  But I know enough to believe that there is nothing wrong technically with the concept.  (I was surprised by the "malleability bug", and surprised that it did so much damage; but I trust that it is not serious, and that all buggy software out there will soon be fixed.)

  My skepticism has to do only with the economical, political, and practical aspects of bitcoin.  We all agree that bitcoin is an original concept, that does not fit well into any conventional economic model.  Therefore, my ignorance about those aspects of bitcoin does not seem to be much greater than anyone else's, even that of the bitcoin pioneers.


Till next time, and all the best, to all of you.

Hey teach...

Kind of reminds me of the dead poets society....  but without the poets or the society.

Happy posting  and happy teaching/learning

Best of luck

[JorgeStolfi]

Transaction malleability is not a bug.

I put it in quotes, didn t I? 

[tarmi]

 I don't think any gox update can push us below this 530 support.

updates might not, but cheap coins certainly will.

[Richy_T]

The day of false hopes, looks like we will end up below 100 again

Who's this "we", Kimosabe?

[Peter R]

....

I've appreciated reading your thoughts over the past few months and I do hope you stay around.  It is helpful to learn the viewpoints of people that haven't been won-over by bitcoin.

Just one question:

You must admit that nobody can foresee the future with perfect clarity.  In 2018, bitcoin could be a dominant world currency, it could be an academic curiosity of a past failed experiment, or it could be something in between.  My question is how do you expect you'd feel if bitcoin is successful beyond all of our wildest hopes?  Will you look back, shrug, and say "oh well"?  Or will you be disappointed that some mental obstinance prevented you from hedging with 2 BTC just in case?

  

[adamstgBit]

Please explain what you find 'strong' about this 'support' at $530?

well

1) we have tested it 3 times now and not broken it  ( maybe sellers realize they are getting ripped off if they sell a bitcoin for less than that, no matter what FUD is going around)
2) may star daily candles, indicating disagreement on price...  (  no shit FUD is scaring poeple into selling, while anyone with half a brain knows bitcoin is going places. )
3) volume speaks volumes
4) because i say so.

[fotosonics]

4) because i say so.

Confirmed.