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Biases aside, that is a very bad long term chart (technically, having marked out a high at 19500 , hard resistance at 13500 and then even more sharply at 10500 : 3 descending tops), as I said at the time. Any chartist worth their salt would be calling a long decline. If it was a stock, it would be a 'short to zero'.
I find troubles in your framing of three tops and even a descending tops. Yeah of course, you are accurate in a sense, but your framing seems to want to imply the outcome rather than really accounting for more zoomed out and better framework.
The reality of the matter is that you are describing three blow off tops rather than hard resistance.
Surely, I will concede that I did not believe $19,666 to have been a blow off top because I thought that there was still plenty of ability to go up; however, retrospective (passage of time) assessment does allow more ability to appreciate $19,666 as a blow off top. In other words, that is not the resistance that you are describing it to be. What the fuck do you expect? The BTC price to just keep going up forever? At some point we had to run out of buying power and support. Think about the context, Majormax. We had about a one year decline from late 2013 to 2014 and then another near year of being largely stuck at such bottom before recovery started in late 2015. Furthermore, we really could not meaningfully appreciate such recovery until about mid-2016, and we did not reach previous ATH until early 2017, which was more than 3 years after our previous ATH.
So really we should recognize that the bull run that started in late 2015 started out very gradually and got stuck a few times throughout its 2 year course, and had a gradual increasing slope that really started to crescendo in the last few months from August to December 2017. By the time that we got to August 2017, hopium was building in the bitcoin air, and the resolution of the various bitcoin hardfork challenges within the bitcoin community in favor of bitcoin, rather than the challengers seemed to have helped push some of the euphoria - along with the money coming into the various scam projects in the space that was largely just riding on the coattails of bitcoin's successful ability to stave off various kinds of centralization and integrity of the immutable vision attacks.
So fuck that, Majormax. I would not be ascribing failure to break resistance to the $19,666 top, just as it is almost equally misguided to attempt to describe going above $13,880, as if it were some kind of major failure event... What the fuck, Majormax? Again, do I need to describe bitcoin price history to you? We both have the charts in front of us.
After December 2017, we had a major ass BTC price correction, and none of us really knew how far down the BTC price correction was going to go. The immediate correction down to $6k in February 2018 and the continued failed attempts to go significantly below $6k between February 2018 and November 2018, contributed to greater confidence (subsequently found out to be incorrect) that $6k was going to be the bottom for the correction, so yeah its November/December breach down to $3,122 caused a decent amount of pessimism, and nearly as great of a surprise came the April-June 2019 recovery from $4,200 to $13,880.
The three month recovery was a bit much too.. which should reasonably imply unsustainability. So you have two price bouts of excited irrational exuberance that you are latching onto in order to attempt to make your case, Majormax.. but you are not done with your latching onto silly ass events to attempt to prove your bear case
Now, you are latching onto a price point of $10,313 that is reflected in a 42% price spurt in a 12 hour period (on October 25), and you are suggesting that to be a failure too.
It get's a lot more difficult to take you seriously, Majormax, when you are ascribing failure to bitcoin success events. Yeah, the BTC price did not break through, but those three examples show bitcoin life rather than failure, and also likely signifies that folks better be holding onto their britches and holding onto their coins rather than getting shaken out by extreme price movements and even misreading bullish positive BTC price movements as if they were negative events.
It is well established on this board that we ignore classic chart signals because BTC is 'different',
We are not ignoring classical price chart signals for shits and giggles. We are doing it because not only is bitcoin different, it is not yet mature, so attempting to assign too god damned much maturity onto bitcoin is going to cause you to get reckt when you are attempting to bet on downward when there remains so much ongoing upwards pressures on bitcoin, and we can never really be sure when the ongoing upwards BTC price pressures is going to result in an upwards explosion.. Sure such upwards BTC price explosion might not be sustainable, but it still tends to punish the fuck out of shorters, especially those playing around with margin, and also frequently causes ordinary "smarter than thou" traders to sell way too many BTC way too early and they end up waiting and waiting and waiting to buy back below their sell price that never ends up coming.
but if Peter Schiff is to properly adhere to his own disciplines, he is consistent and correct.
He is NOT correct. He is failing and refusing to recognize the proper asset, and yeah, if he were referring to a shitcoin, then of course, Peter Schiff would be correct, but bitcoin is not a shitcoin, so he is mis-ascribing the wrong asset class to it... and therefore, he is applying the wrong chart analysis. So who gives a fuck if Schiff would have been correct if he had gotten the asset class correct? The point still remains that he is wrong as fuck to be applying the wrong chart to bitcoin, even if it would have been the right chart if he had picked another asset class. So, saying Schiff is consistent, correct and blah blah blah so wonderful is almost as non-sensical to say that Roach is correct for selling all his coins in the $700 price range. I am not sure which one is stupider? Schiff for consistently never getting into bitcoin or roach for getting in and making some money and then continuing to hope that BTC goes down below $700 so he can buy back in? They are both incredibly amazingly stupid fucks that relate to each other, but have slightly different bearish on bitcoin stories.
I understand that your claim, Majormax, is that you do not trade in regard to your ongoing bearish propositions, and you are supposedly just attempting to "protect" BTC HODLers from becoming too optimistic, but you are also likely talking a lot of BTC HODLers out of their coins and convincing other would be bitcoin accumulators to wait for supposedly lower priced BTC that never ends up coming.
I guess I remain a bit befuddled by your ongoing and consistent overly proclamations of bearish BTC price scenarios, and if people do as you do rather than do as you say, wouldn't you be suggesting them to buy? Or would you be suggesting that they wait? Surely there are a lot of people who did not buy BTC years back and establish their BTC positions years back. The vast majority of peeps did not buy BTC years back, and even folks like me who have decent BTC positions, still might consider from time to time to stack a few more sats with new money rather than money that is already in the system. There are plenty of folks who have way the fuck fewer BTC than me, and therefore, they have to decide what to do. I know that I am suggesting to just keep buying on a regular basis and buying on dips even if they believe that the price might go lower to regularly continue to buy BTC, otherwise they might unwittingly get left out at some point, and no one wants to get roached (except perhaps peeps like roach who already got roached and are just striving to justify their dumbass earlier behavior retrospectively).
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