Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Waking up to $7165. Not another dip, man. I was thinking we’d seen the last of sub $7000.

 

Hmm, but we didn't even see the last of the sub $6k...
I'm prepared for $3000 * 1.8 before starting to climbing over the 2017 ATH.
Time to set some buy orders in that region, but i'll be fine with any price before the halving and sell a part of my fiat on the way down for corn.

Of course, I did the math, and $5,400 could happen.  I like to be prepared for extremes, but surely would be preferable if the bottom is already in.

I don't know how any of these models can apply exactly.  I mean we did get a correction down to $3,122, which took us really close to a year to play out, and then the $13,880 would have been nearly a 4.5x price spurt, even though I like to consider $4,200 as the base for that run.. which would cause it to only be a 3.5x price run.  At the same time the $3,122 bottom and the $4,200 bottom would have been 3.5 months apart, yet we are now more than a year away from the $3,122 bottom.

What I am suggesting is that it would likely be quite difficult to incorporate strict price performance models with bitcoin, and do you have a model that shows how an asset performs during exponential s-curve adoption and some of the unique aspects of bitcoin, including the fact that it both a communication medium, but of course the attached value component is one that has not been seen in history.. so of course more paradigm shifting than either the telephone or the internet - even though analogies can be attempted.

Waking up to $7165. Not another dip, man. I was thinking we’d seen the last of sub $7000.

 

It was explained to me nicely that even a dip to 6000$ levels is to be expected sooner or later.

Oh gawd!!!      We should know we are in trouble when we are conceding that some kind of price move "has to happen" sooner or later.

Bitcoin no doesn't work like that, even though there are a lot of sorcerer wannabes who make these kinds of proclamations - and of course, they get way the fuck more credit than they deserve for the times that they had happened to have been correct.  Let's just ignore the buttload of times that they were wrong in order that we can attribute more credibility to their assertions than such assertions deserve... 

I was so sure for half of this year we'll see prices near the ATH this winter I am quite lost now.

Get a grip, NeuroticFish!  We are still lined up quite well with the four year fractal and stock to flow and other bullish scenarios that might cause down before up to be less probable than you are making it out to be.

I guess that we have to rethink it all. That's what I do.

No need to rethink it all.  Just take it with a grain of salt and buy if the price goes down.. because ultimately it is going up.  If you start to believe that down is inevitable, then you are more likely to do the wrong thing, and sure if you get tricked out of only 10% of your BTC stash, you might be lucky, and that is exactly what the bearwhale manipulators want HODLers to do.. second guess their accumulation strategies to sell instead of buy (or at least HODL if you run out of money).

I start thinking that the sooner we get those low prices the better. Then the growth can start again.

Heard that before, and usually it is not good to get some additional downward movement because it frequently just inspires more attempts at downward movement.  In other words, we have had enough down, so why not up before down, rather than down before up?  Why not?  Oh?  the reason why is because some bear wannabe sorcerers have asserted that we must have down before up?  What a bunch of baloney, even if it is possible, it is far from a "must".

[1713863910]

1713863910

[1713863910]

1713863910

[jojo69]

In other news, it would appear our Bob has a new best friend!  
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5206829.0
Have fun Bob. Just remember you can't "win" when it comes to interacting with this particular member. However, you can entertain the rest of us, and we appreciate it.

LOL. Zero fucks given on my part. Not touching the poop further. I did my part to shine a light on a blotch to these forums in that other thread.

You can't argue with a mental illness. Takes being treated, having one, to know... TBH  

EDIT: Also, dude making a self-moderated thread is just the icing on the cake, so, yeah. Ain't got time for that shit.

yeah, I saw that shit and did not even look over at my 10 foot pole

[JayJuanGee]

[...] otherwise on a 2000 EUR payout I would be credited 1950 EUR, you basically lost 2.5% of your salary within 60 minutes just because of Bitcoin network.

I shouldn't be replying to this, but couldn't resist...

So, you're worried that you lost 2.5% of your salary in 60 minutes? Do you really think this matters? Check your balance in a couple of years and tell me then how much you've lost...

I bought my first Bitcoin at $200 from a Bitcoin ATM in 2015. The moment it arrived in my wallet, the balance was $178 (11% loss). I should have felt so sad and cheated, right? 11% loss in 10 minutes! Wow!

As of now, one Bitcoin is worth around $7200. That's 3500% (or 35x) gain in 4 years. Go find a bank or other investment that can beat that.

Enough said. HoDL.

What if you need your salary right away? Most people do. You can live in a bubble I am afraid.

Most people when withdrawing a salary will need it to pay for their rent, the wife expenses, etc. You invest long term and you believe everyone do the same, the average Joe does the same, etc...    But the average Joe spends his monthly salary, ask your neighbors.

Imagine you received your salary in Bitcoin from 2015 until today, and you used it for your everyday life/family expenses. Do you think you would have gained or lost? Think about it.

Whether you receive your income in BTC or fiat, you still have to consider how much of that BTC you are able to stock away. 

You are not going to earn shit if you are spending all your BTC, and you might end up losing a fuckton of value if you are spending it all of the time.  I am not merely referring to opportunity costs.

So yeah there are surely a large number of people who have difficulties HODLing their BTC.  I have met some of them in real life, so I know that it is a real phenomenon.

And, a similar problem exists with any investment.  You have to have enough faith in the investment to stack (stock) some of it away.. The stacked away  portion is what is going to have the potential to grow, and yeah, some people feel that they cannot stack, but the thing is that they have to figure ways to live within their means, and even very poor people can figure out ways to stack away 5% of their income, but they sometimes tend to get so damned fucking excited when the see that the value of their stacked away portion becomes equal to a year of their income or something like that, and they do not know how to manage their feelings about that and allow that money to continue to grow.. especially when they see it losing value in the shorter term.... so they start to think that it would be better to drive a BMW rather than a toyota... and then they are fucked because they live beyond their means rather than deferring their gratification, which is the ultimate profitable strategy in bitcoinlandia.  HODLers know this pain of deferred gratification.

[bitserve]

In other news, it would appear our Bob has a new best friend!  
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5206829.0
Have fun Bob. Just remember you can't "win" when it comes to interacting with this particular member. However, you can entertain the rest of us, and we appreciate it.

LOL. Zero fucks given on my part. Not touching the poop further. I did my part to shine a light on a blotch to these forums in that other thread.

You can't argue with a mental illness. Takes being treated, having one, to know... TBH  

EDIT: Also, dude making a self-moderated thread is just the icing on the cake, so, yeah. Ain't got time for that shit.
EDIT2: And for clarity, regarding mental illness issues, I am on record for being in self-admitted (now maintenance) therapy, treated for depression and anxiety disorder over 20 years now. What's the big deal ? I'm living a much more productive and happy life now due to the wonders of modern medicine. None of us makes it out of life alive. Get all the help you can, to make the most of it.

I also give a fuck about this sort of BCT drama but.... I wanted to remark those words (in bold) for all the good advice and wisdom they show.

+1000

This is fine.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

All you have are pictures and symbols Roach.

Since you also undoubtedly believe in the c02 trace gas doomsday hoax also:

Zero evidence of c02-induced climate change

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.00165.pdf

But I could have told you that without the pdf since carbon taxes were basically an Enron boardroom scam from the start.

So you are putting words in my mouth now? Is that your strategy? Strawman arguments? Thats the best you can do when backed up into a corner?

Also that paper is not peer reviewed. I asked you for peer reviewed papers when presenting evidence. Only six references are mentioned in this document, four of which were written by the authors themselves and two of which were not published at all. No sources whatsoever. This would not even be passable as a bachelors thesis. Try harder.

I am done with both of you idiots unless I see you post actual peer reviewed papers that back your arguments up.

You're putting an irrational amount of weight on peer review and science.
Lots of science today is just career academia and not science whatsoever. It's also a highly indisputable fact that you have to tickle the right balls to get funding in academia, unless you're doing basic research that can't in any way be used to drive political or corporate narratives.

Furthermore, it's also a well established fact that Physics has only access to some 95% of what they currently believe to be making up the universe.
And even the remaining 5% is quite poorly understood.

Hence, any argument asserting that "X is a fairy tale/conspiracy/whatever because there's no peer reviewed paper" is inherently unscientific, irrational, and in fact deeply dangerous to actual progress. Indeed it is no more than religious dogma in a different form.

[JayJuanGee]

The current price is looking sooo tempting   Should I go full in now, or wait for another dip? Or be rational and buy in 2-3-4 portions? This is the question!

Wait.  For sure.

Perhaps wait for sub $3k.

Why would you want to buy now?  There has ONLY been less than a 50% correction from the $13,880 local high.

[Searing]

The current price is looking sooo tempting   Should I go full in now, or wait for another dip? Or be rational and buy in 2-3-4 portions? This is the question!

Wait.  For sure.

Perhaps wait for sub $3k.

Why would you want to buy now?  There has ONLY been less than a 50% correction from the $13,880 local high.

I'm getting any 'dust' BTC I can now. It is not so much the price of BTC as the fact you are getting BTC before the next halving IMHO.

Thus if these 3 premises are correct, in my view anyway, how I'm approaching this. I also am in full ASIC not big miner anymore withdrawal, so it keeps me busy.

1) HODL'ing is stable and or increasing.

https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/binance-research-indicates-hodling-bitcoin-is-the-most-effective-strategy-to-increasing-profits/

2) Adoption is stable and increasing.

https://www.cryptopolitan.com/cryptocurrency-and-bitcoin-mass-adoption-is-increasing-in-2019-data-report/

3) Bitcoin halving in 2020. As of today, it is almost exactly 1/2 year away!

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/ 162 days 3hrs and 9 min and 30 seconds as of this post.

Anyway, how I'm approaching this.

Brad

[Raja_MBZ]

The current price is looking sooo tempting   Should I go full in now, or wait for another dip? Or be rational and buy in 2-3-4 portions? This is the question!

Wait.  For sure.

Perhaps wait for sub $3k.

Why would you want to buy now?  There has ONLY been less than a 50% correction from the $13,880 local high.

Or maybe wait for an even better price... somewhat like sub $1k? Or $250?

There are gonna be a hell lot of FOMO buyers in the next jump.

[makrospex]

1. Transmission defective on my car: $350 (gone)
2. lots of other stuff that went wrong today
3. lost time fixing these things, that's why i finally was
4. MISSING THE DIP

Thanks, Karma. Whatever i have done to deserve this, i will pay it back to you  

EDIT: Bought for a mere $100 now, count to three and we'll get a giant red candle. Guaranteed.

1) You haven't been eaten by a grue. That's pretty good.
2) $350 for a car transmission repair is cheap. What's wrong with it?

C

It's the seal of the bowden cable of the gear selector in the engine compartment. It breaks after some time, moisture creeps in and on a cold winter morning the whole thing freezes to rigidity. You have to replace the whole cable (well done, vauxhall...). When the car was new, the very first cable held up four years, when it became stuck the first time, got replaced by an "optimized version", which broke after three years now
Two years of warranty, by the way...

[goldkingcoiner]

You're putting an irrational amount of weight on peer review and science.
Lots of science today is just career academia and not science whatsoever. It's also a highly indisputable fact that you have to tickle the right balls to get funding in academia, unless you're doing basic research that can't in any way be used to drive political or corporate narratives.

Furthermore, it's also a well established fact that Physics has only access to some 95% of what they currently believe to be making up the universe.
And even the remaining 5% is quite poorly understood.

Hence, any argument asserting that "X is a fairy tale/conspiracy/whatever because there's no peer reviewed paper" is inherently unscientific, irrational, and in fact deeply dangerous to actual progress. Indeed it is no more than religious dogma in a different form.

I put my weight into logic and evidence confirming that logic that is presented to me. The more evidence, the more weight. That is how science works and it has never failed us throughout human history.

Yes, there are some quacks/degenerates/money driven "scientists" who publish bullshit papers for money, but those are weeded out very quickly and nobody takes them seriously. And nobody who spends 10-13 years of his life obtaining a PhD and 20+ years building a reputation is going to risk losing his credibility in the science community to add a few dollars to the pitiful paycheck a physicist gets.

If a scientist wants money, he changes fields. You can make a shitload with a PhD in non-science related fields. But in science fields? You would be lucky to remain on the payroll of a postdoc.

I do not know where you get the 95% and 5% thing but if you are referring to dark matter and dark energy, its the other way around. The amount we know is so tiny its laughable. But then again, how do we know how much we don't know? So that argument is BS.

I am not saying it's a fairy tale. But if you are going to make claims that go against thousands of years of heavy evidence being built one tiny bit at a time and carefully scrutinized throughout history by generations of scientists, then maybe provide some substantial proof, and not just a few articles about  "powerlines probably cause cancer because some random kid got cancer". If anything, the ones hoping to play on fears and make some money or are politically driven, are the ones getting paid to write those BS articles.

I would love to explain the math and physics but I kinda feel like a medical doctor explaining to a patient who does not want to listen that essential oils do not cure cancer. No point in wasting your time with lost cases.

Edit: here is a fun video explaining it all in a simple fashion for simple folks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfgT6zx4k3Q

[VB1001]

The blog is hung on the wall , I do not like to leave things unfinished, it is almost ready, there are all the hats with their respective links to the bitcointalk and bpip profiles, this small database, is an easy way to access any Hat user whose name you do not remember, in the blog you will find them all indexed alphabetically, you can also admire the designs in their large size with all the details in sight.

https://wohats.blogspot.com/

[Raja_MBZ]

*related to alts*



https://twitter.com/CryptoThinker_/status/1201434355849191424

[hv_]

standard copy paste snipped ~  It's a dystopian, permissioned ledger for idiotic bugmen that just empowers an absurdly tyrannical state.

~ custom copy paste snipped ~

Nice to see you included yourself, although "men" is an extreme word to use for your case.

#

Any speculation about that unkonwn ?  My guess is Calvin & Satoshi

It's my mom's stack man, not pedoCalvin's and faketoshiCraig's.
Please don't ask me to prove it.

Kind of the only small quality but big hater answer that could fit into a softforked block post.

 

[makrospex]

Maybe at some point I am going to lose my patience about this topic?  I was attempting to give some benefit of the doubt, but the more that I think about it, it seems that the way that you are framing the whole matter is another thread rather than this thread.

There are already rules in this thread, which are pretty much wide open and criticism is allowed, so you are attempting participants in your discussion to agree to a more restrictive set of rule of politeness blah blah blah... Which seems almost that you want the powers of a moderated thread within this thread that is moderated by someone else (largely infofront in this case).

....

Hey JJG, i had a hell of a day today, read your comments on this several times to try to grasp it all.

I liked to hear opinions on my "what if..." kind of perspective, obviously in the wrong place? Turned out to be the wrong move, no need to go far beyond that, imo.
Don't go raving too much about it. I was just putting the wrong idea in the wrong place, stupidly, but this idea is not that important to me as well that i have to defend anything about it.
I would never be so bold to knowingly interrupt this thread (any thread) and assume it was correct to do so.
So can we shut the case and have our virtual beer now together? 

[realr0ach]

Metals start breaking out upwards and right at the same time, the visible Jewish hand of the market attempts to rig silver down and imaginary, valueless timestamps up to try and distract goyim away from real money and into using a Chinese social credit score, cashless society slavery system:

[podyx]

What's going on guys...

[P_Shep]

What's going on guys...

It Barted.

[El duderino_]

What's going on guys...

You tell us, btw love it that you only appear on fast movements .......... Why?

[jojo69]

What's going on guys...

[El duderino_]

But indeed this pump was short lived