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Question: Feb. 15 Closing Price:
$0 - 3 (2.5%)
<$8,500 - 6 (5.1%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 3 (2.5%)
$9,001-$9,500 - 2 (1.7%)
$9,501-$10,000 - 13 (11%)
$10,001-$10,500 - 30 (25.4%)
$10,501-$11,000 - 21 (17.8%)
$11,001-$11,500 - 14 (11.9%)
$11,501-$12,000 - 7 (5.9%)
>$12,000 - 10 (8.5%)
>$30,000 - 9 (7.6%)
Total Voters: 118

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21527474 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (142 posts by 32 users deleted.)
Paashaas
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December 10, 2019, 04:15:03 PM

Japan-based startup Nayuta has released what it says is the first lightning network wallet with a built-in bitcoin "full node.".

Quote
Nayuta claims it is the first developer to add a full node to its wallet, making the esoteric sovereignty-preserving technology a bit easier to use. They use a fork of the project ABCore, which makes it easier to run a full node on Android devices.

I prefer security than easier to use..
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jojo69
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no FOMO


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December 10, 2019, 04:17:00 PM

They promised us an X-mass price.....

The hats are very nice, but in the interim the bastards are building the Death Star https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dW549Ohkxo

Wow, that stoner's shit holds together...documentation and everything


bitserve
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December 10, 2019, 04:39:56 PM
Last edit: December 10, 2019, 05:30:47 PM by bitserve
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


Also I am still fearful that so much expectation from so many people about the halving could not result in the expected outcome and when I see "predictions" for the next 2-5 years like $50K, $100K and over I get nervous. Well, we will see. Whatever it has to be, just let it be. I will just HODL (and try to sell *some* when the time price comes).

I remember the period before the halving in 2016, and I can assure you there were just as many predictions (on a per capita basis, bitcoin community was much smaller then with little mainstream pickup) about how the price was going to boom. The only difference this time is that they are putting lofty price targets along with the prediction. It seems that the only reason why these price predictions are happening this time is because of the very popular stock to flow analysis by PlanB.

I am not fearful at all, and anyone who has an understanding about supply constricted markets shouldn't be fearful either.

I was somewhat inactive during the period 2014-2015 but it is my impression that there were more doom and gloom in comparison to this period. If too many people decides to keep hodling/buying just because of those predictions and when the time comes the outcome doesn't materialise -> problem.

The stock to flow analysis by PlanB is nice but it is just a model which could perfectly be wrong. Also, even if the *additional* supply is halved and it should have an impact on price, that amount is only a small part of the free float (which can and does change vastly depending on many other factors like FOMO/PANIC).

DOn't get me wrong... my money is on Bitcoin eventually reaching a new ATH in maybe less than 2 years after the halving. I just don't have the confidence to take it for granted nor do I feel the need to do so as I can do both fear and HODL at the same time.
JSRAW
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December 10, 2019, 06:01:56 PM

For Beer lovers

Bitcoin/Lightning Network Beer Faucet
bitcoinPsycho
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$100,000 BTC in one hour🍄💊


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December 10, 2019, 06:04:30 PM

Hueristic
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Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


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December 10, 2019, 06:10:43 PM

A reminder that the battle for open source financial and communication freedom is not ever 'won'.  A little vigilance is essential.

https://medium.com/swlh/how-microsoft-might-become-a-threat-to-bitcoin-f886fe7fbb3a

'The American software behemoth has been censoring the development of open-source software on Github. This has serious implications for blockchain development projects, including Bitcoin.'

This is not a threat, the bitcoin project can be moved to other services in a matter of minutes.

The biggest threat for bitcoin today is the bad privacy. Using bitcoin is not as anonymous as it should be.

Bakkt is the much larger threat.

https://youtu.be/uuQC6f6F4Ls?t=838


Everyone backed up before M$ moved on github and no-one in FOSS trusts Redmond.



Wow, that stoner's shit holds together...documentation and everything




Yep, he has correlated all this shit we have been saying for the last few years and made some pretty good sense of it. i especially like the way he attributes the futures attack as being akin to the gold futures attack.
Wekkel
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yes


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December 10, 2019, 06:14:25 PM

I was somewhat inactive during the period 2014-2015 but it is my impression that there were more doom and gloom in comparison to this period. [..]

I concur. Expect for a few desperate moments after the drop to $3,xxx, it has been a cozy winter ride so far.

Can’t say the same for Alts  Shocked
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December 10, 2019, 06:15:32 PM
Last edit: December 10, 2019, 09:59:32 PM by Biodom
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Some variations that have made the PlanB model. It catches my attention because PlanB liked it.

Quote
For this, i calculated the vecm for each month and took the confidence intervals from the models. for the forecast part, i used the confidence interval from the last model. this last part is the interval given by exp(-2.443379)*sf^3.189581,  exp(-2.443379)*sf^3.713882.
 
Quote
here. I plotted the CI expansions for each VECM snapshot, and then used the last CI for the forecast range.
 
    Source: https://twitter.com/phraudsta/status/1204329006641762304

Source: https://twitter.com/phraudsta/status/1204370743976284160


Interesting...looking backwards, it gives an interesting setup at or immediately after the halving.
We shall see if it repeats itself.
The band is wide enough for btc to be anywhere between 3K and 18K at the halving, though.
However, the lower it would be, the higher is the ensuing "safe" upside potential.
This explains why funds are pressing btc down, since they know about the possible timing of the reversal and the maximum surge potential upon halving. I had observed this before with biotech stocks which are often being moved down just before the 10X gain in a week on relevant info release.

EDIT: BTW, during both previous halving we came out of The "box" at about 30-40% of the box height (slightly below the midline). Projecting the same %% to this halving would indicate about 5-6.5K, which would be annoyingly low, but with a very high profit potential.
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December 10, 2019, 06:16:49 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Biodom (1), Arriemoller (1)



I have always thought about how we could keep in touch if the forum suffers a serious fall and disconnects for many hours,
I know that the Bitcointalk hosting service is very powerful and this is unlikely to happen,
but anyway, remember this in wohats:



Offline forum? https://www.wohats.com/2019/12/offline-forum.html

If this happens, I will open the comments without registration so that we can be online all WO,s

Maybe it will never be used, but that way we have a way of communication.

(Now I will have the comments without registration a few hours, there are some WO,s who asked if they could publish in wohats.)
infofront
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December 10, 2019, 06:22:19 PM
Merited by VB1001 (1)

I believe there's an incoming double bottom...

Last of the V8s
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Be a bank


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December 10, 2019, 06:22:26 PM


At @Visa for a full day of Bitcoin and Lightning!
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December 10, 2019, 06:23:14 PM

This is not fine

Meh, not remotely worried. Show me sub $5,000 before I start to panic. Even then I’d spend 5 figures (GBP) on a load more coins.
Not panicking just want $100000 BTC now

Panic is a good thing.

You release more adrenaline when you panic.

Panic keeps you alive.

That's how animals survived through the centuries. So did humans. (Dinosaurs didn't panic hard enough)

However... I don't panic anymore when bitcoin goes down. I used to panic when bitcoin was going down too.

You know when I panic now?

I panic when it goes UP!
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December 10, 2019, 06:32:05 PM


https://twitter.com/CobraBitcoin/status/1204434641375158274
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December 10, 2019, 06:35:53 PM

A reminder that the battle for open source financial and communication freedom is not ever 'won'.  A little vigilance is essential.

https://medium.com/swlh/how-microsoft-might-become-a-threat-to-bitcoin-f886fe7fbb3a

'The American software behemoth has been censoring the development of open-source software on Github. This has serious implications for blockchain development projects, including Bitcoin.'

old news just move your repos to gitlabz or peer-to-peer alternatives ;-D ~easy

Best is to have them on both or even more places. If one place gets taken off you still have others. Decentralization means to remove points of failures. Decentralization is never black and white, but of all shades of grey.
Basorexia
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December 10, 2019, 06:56:13 PM


Haha, cool! I would love to wear such a sweater on New Year's Eve!
JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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December 10, 2019, 06:58:48 PM
Merited by suchmoon (7), bitserve (1)

^Agreed.

This "stability" is nerve wrecking btw.

You must be so relieved, though, bitserve.

Remember the good ole days when you were so capitulating-inclined (like last year around this time, and might have already started in September or October of 2018?... I am too lazy to look it up).

I get the sense that your spirits are UP, even if you might be reluctant to admit it.   Tongue Tongue


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Not reluctant at all. IIRC I was relieved "enough" when BTC climbed over $5K (not only because of the price, but the strenght and dynamics of the bounce) which is when I removed my "capitulation" status.

Yep..  That bounce from April to June was quite lovely, and really should have demonstrated the powers of BTC.  Even if the price corrects all the way back down to the bouncing off level, there remains significant meaning in BTC price moves like that - even if there were some aspects of manipulation contained therein, too.

Just like a lot of misinformation in bitcoin, there are quite a few folks who still want to frame the April to June price rise as either insignificantly important or even as a negative.  Sure, not going to stop those kinds of selective renditions, and in that regard, each of us have to come to our own conclusions regarding events like that and the significance of such events like that.

Oh, and by the way, another lovely aspect of the April to June Bitcoin price rise was that it largely served as a shitcoin purging event.  Surely some of the shitcoins had gotten some of their value back, but the whole situation demonstrated an alternative means to purge a few more snot-nosed 14 year olds out of their delusions regarding the power of fundamentals contained in king daddy.



So yeah, my spirit is somewhat up when it comes to Bitcoin (IRL issues aside). Far from euphoric though... if you ever notice me too much euphoric please remind me to sell some this time (in case I "forget" to do it... again).

Surely hard to get euphoric during a significant correction period, that's for sure.

I understand that you want to be shaken in some kind of way during these outrageous BTC price outbursts to shave a bit of coin off the top, but I think what happens is that somewhere in the middle of the process of BTC's price going up stupendously in a short period of time, euphoria turns into paralysis, and the only folks who are not paralyzed are the no coiners and the sold too early coiners who are proclaiming bubble but shown wrong by the facts (until they aren't, then they are proclaiming I told you so, even though they started calling bubble at $6k, for example).

The HODLers, as you suggest, are also concerned about "this is not going to end well" but their (our) mouths are so gapingly open that we don't know when exactly to hit the sell button (at least to shave off a bit of profits, or repurchasing dry powder).



I am not very happy that, unlike during the 2014-2015 bear market, my BTC count has barely increased this time but I'll have to live with that.

I am probably in a similar boat as you, at least in terms of how many stats I was able to stack up during the past couple of years and considering projections of value including ways in which I have allocated and reallocated my BTC, my fiat related BTC fund and other assets.  I just looked at my apparent BTC balance and fiat holdings as of early November 2017 (when the BTC price was about the same as it is now), and gosh I was a bit shocked by some aspects of my own situation. It's almost as if I could frame my whole matter in such a way that would conclude that I have been spinning my wheels the whole time, but I am thinking that some of my own consideration of the matter has to do with my having had way more incentive to stack sats in a building and accumulation kind of way in the earlier days of my BTC investment, which would have been largely what was taking place in 2014/15 as compared to now.  Even in late 2017, I was likely transitioning somewhat from accumulation to maintenance - at least in the sense that I was disinclined to inject more new money into BTC rather than just using money that was already in my system of accounting for BTC value (which is fiat that was already dedicated to BTC).

I recall that you had some real life expenses that had reduced your ability to allocate more into BTC, but still doesn't it seem, somewhat, that any of us are going to be a lot less reluctant to inject new money into BTC when our BTC holdings are anywhere in the 2x to 15x profits arena, as compared to when we were either breaking even or that we were in a negative equity situation, which was largely my situation in 2014/15 as compared to current and recent BTC holdings evaluations.


Also I am still fearful that so much expectation from so many people about the halving could not result in the expected outcome

For sure we have to prepare for any scenario, whether up or down, but shit are you really going to NOT be in profits if BTC were merely to perform up to $15k rather than going to $50k or $100k or even to $500k?  I would think that you are still quite in profits, even if you might not have become as rich as hoped.  In any event, all of us should be considering if we believe that there are some better places to put our money if we believe that the risk / reward and potential for upside might be better than bitcoin, and surely I am NOT really seeing anything, especially something that I can play around incrementally with the level of my investment and not be subject to various aspects of centralization (third party risk of fucking around with aspects of my investment from the inside).  

Even investments like gold or real estate might be tangible assets, but their markets are affected by dollar manipulations, and of course, if you want to chose a nice place for yourself to live that might be a good investment for yourself, personally, even if it is not very liquid, it sure the hell is practical if it's price becomes subject to manipulation of money availability and other market dynamics that are not always known.. so maybe in some ways similar to bitcoin, but with differing assessments regarding the fundamentals including considering new market versus traditional market, including information asymmetry, which those of us who have been into bitcoin for a decently long period of time seem to enjoy a lot of the information asymmetry in our favor... and we will likely profit from folks coming in who have no damned clue and are learning a lot of the aspects of bitcoin that we largely already learned along the way of our historically actively investing into it.  One thing learning on the sidelines versus being an active BTC HODLer.

and when I see "predictions" for the next 2-5 years like $50K, $100K and over I get nervous. Well, we will see. Whatever it has to be, just let it be. I will just HODL (and try to sell *some* when the time price comes).

Exactly!!!!  What else can you do?  Of course, you don't want to become overly exuberant and risk too much on something that might not happen, yet there are people suggesting to go 100% in and all that kind of bullshit, and even if we believe that the odds of $50k or $100k or whatever are decently high, the evaluations that come even close to 100% seem to be fantasylandia thinking from my opinion, and even assigning values of 80% or higher seem way too damned high.. but there are likely some guys (and perhaps gal) in this thread who are assessing odds at those kinds of levels.. .. but whatever, it takes all kinds of people to make the world go round, and I have a tendency to believe that if guys (and gal) invest in accordance to their beliefs then the ones with the irrational and stupid ass over-exuberant beliefs are going to get weeded out sooner or later.  They might not get weeded out on this particular bet, but if they are overly exuberant in compared to their bitcoin holdings, they are likely engaging in a pattern of behavior that sooner or later is going to cause them to either learn a lesson or to be parted with whatever money they happen to have.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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December 10, 2019, 07:25:36 PM

I was somewhat inactive during the period 2014-2015 but it is my impression that there were more doom and gloom in comparison to this period. [..]

I concur. Expect for a few desperate moments after the drop to $3,xxx, it has been a cozy winter ride so far.

Can’t say the same for Alts  Shocked


Agree. There is relatively more optimism around, plus price starts from a higher base. It needs a huge amount more fiat buying to move the price similar %.

I feel there is plenty more room for downside in the next year, but anything is possible.
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December 10, 2019, 07:31:15 PM

This is not fine

 Each to his own Smiley


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December 10, 2019, 07:38:19 PM

This is not fine

Meh, not remotely worried. Show me sub $5,000 before I start to panic. Even then I’d spend 5 figures (GBP) on a load more coins.


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December 10, 2019, 07:38:32 PM

Everything is working exactly as it should be. Boring stability in the price, very low volatility 6 months from the halving. Hope you’re all continuing to buy every sat you can whilst we’re in this boring price period.

I’m really looking forward to the next 2 years, it’s going to be really interesting to see where we go (moon most likely).


Its really not that far away but people are just to impatient.
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