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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21578039 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (143 posts by 33 users deleted.)
hnbdgr
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December 17, 2019, 10:51:56 PM

The current price is looking sooo tempting  Shocked Should I go full in now, or wait for another dip? Or be rational and buy in 2-3-4 portions? Huh This is the question! Huh

Wait.  For sure.

Perhaps wait for sub $3k.

Why would you want to buy now?  There has ONLY been less than a 50% correction from the $13,880 local high.

Actually, I am all in in terms of life savings, but not in terms of networth, since I don't have a bank loan and I own my place and a car. Now I am tempted to take a loan from the bank guaranteed only by my state job salary and not by mortgage or anything like this. I've been playing various scenarios because a bank loan is a risky thing. What I've come
to as a solution is to take one loan to buy at the current levels with monthly payments for 10 years equal to 1/6 of my salary. The annual interest is 5%, so at the end is slightly above 25% for the whole period. I can't risk all money at once, since the price can fall to 3K. If this happens I can double the loan. I still have my cold stash which would be 3x-4x bigger than the loan and is an insurance against a theoretical job loss. I suppose the risk is not too big, since my state job is with an ulimited contract. My motive is not some greed for a quick profit, but rather to reach an amount in bitcoins which I had in my mind. I tried to reach it but I failed for various reasons. And most probably I won't reach it, because max 1 year after the halving the price will stay higher than 10K. If you want to encourage me (or not) go ahead, every opinion will be appreciated!
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kurious
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December 17, 2019, 10:52:27 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)

A bit early, but am I looking at a double bottom...

Or is it just the desire to see something to lift my... spirits?

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December 17, 2019, 10:55:25 PM

Stock to flow reductio ad absurdum

https://twitter.com/digitalikNet/status/1207032051779674112

I around 2041 any schmuck with 0.1BTC is a billionaire, lol.

Which is the reason stock to flow model does not predict the future price. It just does... until it doesn't.

We would be *extremely* lucky if it does for another cycle.

We would also be lucky to have a model that works as good as stocks/bonds or RE 'models' worked for the last 90-100 years or so.
Right now all btc models are lacking. Maybe the best would be neural network/Deep learning.
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December 17, 2019, 10:57:08 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

The current price is looking sooo tempting  Shocked Should I go full in now, or wait for another dip? Or be rational and buy in 2-3-4 portions? Huh This is the question! Huh

Wait.  For sure.

Perhaps wait for sub $3k.

Why would you want to buy now?  There has ONLY been less than a 50% correction from the $13,880 local high.

Actually, I am all in in terms of life savings, but not in terms of networth, since I don't have a bank loan and I own my place and a car. Now I am tempted to take a loan from the bank guaranteed only by my state job salary and not by mortgage or anything like this. I've been playing various scenarios because a bank loan is a risky thing. What I've come
to as a solution is to take one loan to buy at the current levels with monthly payments for 10 years equal to 1/6 of my salary. The annual interest is 5%, so at the end is slightly above 25% for the whole period. I can't risk all money at once, since the price can fall to 3K. If this happens I can double the loan. I still have my cold stash which would be 3x-4x bigger than the loan and is an insurance against a theoretical job loss. I suppose the risk is not too big, since my state job is with an ulimited contract. My motive is not some greed for a quick profit, but rather to reach an amount in bitcoins which I had in my mind. I tried to reach it but I failed for various reasons. And most probably I won't reach it, because max 1 year after the halving the price will stay higher than 10K. If you want to encourage me (or not) go ahead, every opinion will be appreciated!


No one can (or should) advise you to use debt to buy a volatile asset.  

You must make your own choice - most people here are (like me) very bullish.  However, how will you feel if you go into debt and it drops further?  Anything is possible, so you must think carefully.  Going into debt for speculation can go badly wrong.
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December 17, 2019, 10:57:36 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

The current price is looking sooo tempting  Shocked Should I go full in now, or wait for another dip? Or be rational and buy in 2-3-4 portions? Huh This is the question! Huh

Wait.  For sure.

Perhaps wait for sub $3k.

Why would you want to buy now?  There has ONLY been less than a 50% correction from the $13,880 local high.

Actually, I am all in in terms of life savings, but not in terms of networth, since I don't have a bank loan and I own my place and a car. Now I am tempted to take a loan from the bank guaranteed only by my state job salary and not by mortgage or anything like this. I've been playing various scenarios because a bank loan is a risky thing. What I've come
to as a solution is to take one loan to buy at the current levels with monthly payments for 10 years equal to 1/6 of my salary. The annual interest is 5%, so at the end is slightly above 25% for the whole period. I can't risk all money at once, since the price can fall to 3K. If this happens I can double the loan. I still have my cold stash which would be 3x-4x bigger than the loan and is an insurance against a theoretical job loss. I suppose the risk is not too big, since my state job is with an ulimited contract. My motive is not some greed for a quick profit, but rather to reach an amount in bitcoins which I had in my mind. I tried to reach it but I failed for various reasons. And most probably I won't reach it, because max 1 year after the halving the price will stay higher than 10K. If you want to encourage me (or not) go ahead, every opinion will be appreciated!


I won't encourage you.

Investing what you need to (eventually) give back doesn't comply with the nr1 rule of don't invest what you can't afford to lose. If you do, and the worst happen, you will become a weak hand that once certain (low) price is reached will NEED to sell.

If you are able to invest whatever amount, loaned or not, and hodl till ZERO if needed... Then go ahead (DYOR though). Otherwise please don't. We don't need no more weak hands that would sell at worst possible moment and dumping the price even more.
bitserve
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December 17, 2019, 11:02:54 PM

Stock to flow reductio ad absurdum

https://twitter.com/digitalikNet/status/1207032051779674112

I around 2041 any schmuck with 0.1BTC is a billionaire, lol.

Which is the reason stock to flow model does not predict the future price. It just does... until it doesn't.

We would be *extremely* lucky if it does for another cycle.

We would also be lucky to have a model that works as good as stocks/bonds or RE 'models' worked for the last 90-100 years or so.
Right now all btc models are lacking. Maybe the best would be neural network/Deep learning.

Yeah, but there is a difference between an "always rising" model like stocks/bonds for the past decades and a delusional forever *exponential* growth. Even a 2x rise each year would need to eventually fail. That's not the same than a ... what¿ 10-20% (or lower) yearly average historical rise of stocks and bonds?
LUCKMCFLY
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December 17, 2019, 11:04:02 PM

I like this model, it has a lot of theory of market speculation, and investment at the same time.

Quote
Stock-to-flow model predicts the long term trend, and greed & fear cause the actual bitcoin price to dance around this trend. #cointegration


Source: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1206979035378724868
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December 17, 2019, 11:04:24 PM

A bit early, but am I looking at a double bottom...

Or is it just the desire to see something to lift my... spirits?



we could bottom at around 5K (optimistically), if we go below 6.1-6.2K.
On the other hand, we can just bounce off of 6.5K and travel north.
I am not sure who is selling a nicely appreciated asset before the year end.
It's not a typical behavior.
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December 17, 2019, 11:10:26 PM

I dunno

I'm just not feeling the pain yet
... so it's pain you want?
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December 17, 2019, 11:23:50 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

The current price is looking sooo tempting  Shocked Should I go full in now, or wait for another dip? Or be rational and buy in 2-3-4 portions? Huh This is the question! Huh

Wait.  For sure.

Perhaps wait for sub $3k.

Why would you want to buy now?  There has ONLY been less than a 50% correction from the $13,880 local high.

Actually, I am all in in terms of life savings, but not in terms of networth, since I don't have a bank loan and I own my place and a car. Now I am tempted to take a loan from the bank guaranteed only by my state job salary and not by mortgage or anything like this. I've been playing various scenarios because a bank loan is a risky thing. What I've come
to as a solution is to take one loan to buy at the current levels with monthly payments for 10 years equal to 1/6 of my salary. The annual interest is 5%, so at the end is slightly above 25% for the whole period. I can't risk all money at once, since the price can fall to 3K. If this happens I can double the loan. I still have my cold stash which would be 3x-4x bigger than the loan and is an insurance against a theoretical job loss. I suppose the risk is not too big, since my state job is with an ulimited contract. My motive is not some greed for a quick profit, but rather to reach an amount in bitcoins which I had in my mind. I tried to reach it but I failed for various reasons. And most probably I won't reach it, because max 1 year after the halving the price will stay higher than 10K. If you want to encourage me (or not) go ahead, every opinion will be appreciated!

It depends how big is the loan. I for example have 2 credit cards which are almost empty. I pay 100 euro each month with 4-5% interest . The sum I owe is around 6 months salary. I never had any worries even when we fell at 3K which is way below my investment point at $4800. On the contrary, I emptied the cards even more and I dind't think to fill them even above 12K. One of the reasons is that I am afraid someone can steal the sum while shopping (it happened through paypal once). Yesterday I ordered a rare medicine for my eye and I had to enter my credit card number in a not well known website. Luckily they took only the sum that was right and hopefully I will get that medicine. But my insurance is that my card is almost empty anyway. I guess I can live even with a double debt, if the monthly payment is low enough, for a long time. The most important thing is to learn to hodl no matter the circumstances. If you can't, a loan is a NO GO. If you can, then a reasonably small loan is not a bad idea in my opinion.
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December 17, 2019, 11:37:15 PM

Good buying right now given we are finally undershooting the fractal.  



Thanks for TA, but it is not a fractal since nothing here is recurring (so far) vs 2015-2017.
Everything is just random move, albeit i can give you one fundamental that was critical, IMHO, in stopping the bull run in the summer and it starts with F, not a T.

BTW, my end of the year game entry is quite possible since we are still descending.
Disgusted by seemingly pitiful year end.

No commonality here at all.

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December 17, 2019, 11:41:26 PM

Good buying right now given we are finally undershooting the fractal.  



Thanks for TA, but it is not a fractal since nothing here is recurring (so far) vs 2015-2017.
Everything is just random move, albeit i can give you one fundamental that was critical, IMHO, in stopping the bull run in the summer and it starts with F, not a T.

BTW, my end of the year game entry is quite possible since we are still descending.
Disgusted by seemingly pitiful year end.

No commonality here at all.



Well, if you take an average of two numbers, then the data point would be in between, right?
We had a huge run from 3K to almost 14K in 2019. Nothing like this exists in 2015.
BTW, I am not trying to argue your TA away. I am js that we are in the uncharted waters.
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December 18, 2019, 12:10:24 AM

via Imgflip Meme Generator
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December 18, 2019, 12:19:59 AM

Starting Jan. 3, Coinfloor, the oldest crypto exchange in the UK, will support only BTC.

They are dumping ETH & BeeCash

Excellent!

#Bullish
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December 18, 2019, 12:24:54 AM

We have more down to come for sure, but..... its okay to start nibbling at these prices as you don't want to try and buy the bottom all at once.

I have sources confirming that Bargain Boy activity has begun as promised.

Don't get too excited, this is just stage 1.

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December 18, 2019, 12:38:07 AM
Last edit: December 18, 2019, 12:53:51 AM by Raja_MBZ
Merited by El duderino_ (1)



This happens too often. However, so far this year, I've been saying one same thing with everyone who talked about bitcoin: "The best performing asset of 2019!"

P.S. It's getting a bit frustrating to see that there has been no strong (at least short-term) fightback by the bulls - I hope this changes in the next few days!
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December 18, 2019, 12:49:39 AM

What kind of sorcery is this?

This looks ridiculous. Rubbing my eyes for the 2e time... Tongue



https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3ABTCUSDLONGS

This is too out of scale to be a "candid" long position building.
Noticing it started when BAKKT started. Maybe a coincidence?
This is something I will try to look into.
Very intresting.


Opened a thread: this thing is too interesting IMHO:
LONGS on BITFINEX going PARABOLIC

If enough of these longs get liquidated, all the hell will brake loose.
They have been building this longs since one months.
Whoever did that has deep pockets

This is an unprecedented open position, so worth a bit more thought :

Who will be on the short side of this total position ?  It cannot be assumed that the larger traders (or whale) are taking the long side.  The large trader(s) are working progressively either  on the bid side to create a long, or on the offer side to create a short.  The circumstantial evidence obviously points to a short side position,  because the trades have been at successively lower and lower prices. Think about it.

Usually there is a lot of noise in the market, which will mask the way the open interest has happened, but in this unusual case it is crystal clear.

As to the motivation for the position, or the next step in some plan, anyone have any suggestions ?  

The best guess is that this trend will continue for now,  prices walking downwards for some time, with regular snap-back rallies.

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December 18, 2019, 12:53:14 AM

I don’t think it works like that.  These aren’t futures in the conventional sense. 

For a long position on Bitfinex you borrow $US to buy BTC on physical market

For a short position you borrow BTC and sell on physical market.

Someone will quickly correct me if I am wrong.
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December 18, 2019, 12:53:21 AM

Most bullish sign today - https://blog.kraken.com/post/3355/kraken-otc-acquires-circle-trade/

Circle got rid of their consumer-facing service just a few short months before the bull run kicked off. Now they've gotten rid of their whale service too.

Excellent.  Just added to my long. 



GOODmorning, mic’s gonna HODLsleep.....
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December 18, 2019, 12:54:03 AM

I don’t think it works like that. 

For a long position on Bitfinex you borrow $US to buy BTC on physical market

For a short position you borrow BTC and sell on physical market.

Someone will quickly correct me if I am wrong.

Best option.... never borrow, never be burned....
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