Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Raja_MBZ]

Not sure why, but 2020 sounds extremely bullish for crypto (BTC+ALTS). I've got an inner feeling that I'll be rich before presidential elections.

But yeah, we all define "rich" in a different manner, and I believe that if I somehow pull a 5x on my BTC holdings and 10x on my ALTS (which mostly consists of ADA) holdings, I'll be rich. So $50,000/BTC and $0.50/ADA is all basically what I expect (and hope for) before November.

Let's see, let's see...

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[El duderino_]

Not sure why, but 2020 sounds extremely bullish for crypto (BTC+ALTS). I've got an inner feeling that I'll be rich before presidential elections.

But yeah, we all define "rich" in a different manner, and I believe that if I somehow pull a 5x on my BTC holdings and 10x on my ALTS (which mostly consists of ADA) holdings, I'll be rich. So $50,000/BTC and $0.50/ADA is all basically what I expect (and hope for) before November.

Let's see, let's see...

I could absolutely live with that, got work on my holding then though....

[JayJuanGee]

^^
RR

I suggest for the next year that you achieve some goals:

- Recover your legendary account
- Read the Bitcoin technical document carefully
- Read Frederick Hayek

I think with this you will understand where we are going and something else, HODL

Roach does not want to learn.

He is not here to learn.

He is here to teach us about topics that are largely irrelevant to this thread and/or wrong.

Hopefully, he is getting paid for his efforts, and hopefully, he does not believe the nonsense that he stubbornly and repeatedly repeats here for his troll/shilling thrills.

I think he might actually believe his ramblings, if so and possibly even if not, mental health risks and concerns should be obvious to any reader.

Could be that he believes.  More likely that he is either entertained or just entertained by stirring shit.

Perhaps he is being paid,

If it is largely off topic, then meaning that he is posting about PMs rather than about bitcoin, then what are the motives?  Yes, BTC is taking market share from Pms... so i suppose there is that, as a motive.

actually, speaking of which, I've always wondered if you are or have been paid to post?

I was only paid during the couple of years that I was in a signature campaign.... but with that I had figured that I could just post as I usually do, and just get paid.  After a while, it became too burdensome for me to want to continue being part of any campaign... also, it started to seem like petty pay compared with the bullshit of waiting to get paid and then constantly changing terms, which made it seem almost like a regular job to ensure collection.

I can't recall the topic ever but it must have been discussed, you know, paid by word perhaps?      

Variations of the topic have come up through the years.  Ultimately, I write as many words as I determine necessary to make whatever point that I am striving to make.

Not that you don't come across as genuine, or even helpful, just curious and of course I'd respect your right to privacy.

Fair enough.

Edit: goddammit, was that a dick move to ask? Sometimes my filter isn't tuned the same as others.

Yes, I agree.  A little bit of a dick move, and maybe a bit distracted, but I suppose somewhat relevant when there is an ability to determine that a person (such as yours truly) spends a quite a bit of time participating in the forum... not just me, but other members, too.

I surely spend the vast majority of my forum time participating in bitcoin related topics.  There are others who spend a lot of time engaged in forum politics (I tend not to) or in dabbling in a variety of shitcoins (I tend not to do that either).  By the way, much of the time, I try to spend on bitcoin, so I don't dabble as much, either, when the topic of the thread deviates into too many areas of off-topicness, except once in a while it is tempting to jump in here and there...... but surely there are some topics that I am not going to really touch, except maybe to make fun of them....  

hahaha Icy, let's wait for JJg

Hahahhaha, JSRAW....

No need to wait no more... 

[JayJuanGee]

There is no such thing as being over invested in bitcoin. Pour all that filthy fiat into this imaginary digital gold token shit.

Nobody has ever gotten rich, from not taking any risk

Well, you are not "over-invested" until you are.  

I would rather NOT have to come across any kind of scenario that I am forced to sell my BTC at any time that is other than my choosing.  Surely, once your BTC become sufficiently profitable, then at that point, you don't really mind that you might have extra value in BTC.  

Let's say that you have $100k in BTC value and $8k in cash, but you unexpectedly run into an emergency expense that is around $20k.  BTC prices are in a dip, but you might be fucked because you are forced to sell off some BTC, at a time that is not of your own choosing, and worse if BTC is in a dip during that time, but surely better if your BTC are profitable rather than unprofitable when you are forced to sell some of them to cover your unexpected expense.  Then as soon as you sell to cover your expenses, BTC does a 3.5x in 3 months and during a period in which you don't have enough of a cash flow to replace any of the BTC that you had been forced to sell during the dip.  Sure would have been nice to have had other resources to draw from for that $20k expense, rather than having to draw from your BTC stash during an inopportune time, right?

Sure, my example might not be extreme enough, but you should be able to recognize what I am trying to say... you could end up getting wiped out of your BTC investment.

I have said, several times, that I had purposefully invested in BTC in a much higher than expected proportion than my comfort level (which is another way of saying overinvested) because I have wanted to feel a lot of comfortable in selling BTC on the way up.  That is part of the plan to be able to skim off a few BTC here and there on the way up, and in that way, I feel comfortable with my level of overinvested.

So, surely, overinvested is possible, and each of us has to determine what kinds of income/expenses s/he has going on in his/her life in order to figure out what kinds of resources that we are going to be able to draw from when some of the unexpected expenses might end up playing out at the most inopportune times.  Yeah, things are going all good and fine and thinking that we have cushions here, there and everywhere, and fucking bitcoin dips 50% and then 65% and then 85% and we thought that the bottom was in at 50%, and in the mean time, we have real world activities going on that could cause us to have some unexpected expenses taking place at the same time that BTC's price is dipping and at a time that we have already used up a large amount of any spare cashflow that we had in our sock drawer.. that is looking pretty sparse during those times of need.  Why the fuck do I have to pay that tax?  Why did they store gasoline in the closet?  why is my new lambo/leer jet parked in that location, and why wasn't the insurance up-to-date?  Fuck? Is the world against me, everything negative happening at the same time?  

Yeah, shit happens. Especially if you do not adequately pee pare ur lil selfie.   

Excellent advice and a rational way to look at your investments. I was just joking around about over investing. Even though it's true you have to take some risk to eventually get ahead, but investing in Bitcoin is in my opinion risk enough.

However the example you mention does not really apply to someone of my age, because most of my generation do not have 108k in savings/investments. I do not run into emergency expenses around the 20k. An emergency expense for me would be around 1-2k which I will be able to cover even though I have around 90% of my wealth in BTC right now.

Of course, you can scale the amounts and tweak the circumstances.  I was just taking from some modified and a bit lower version similar to what LFC had mentioned earlier, and trying to make it somewhat relatable... of course, you could divide those numbers by 10 or even devise a scenario that is more realistic for your particular circumstances. 

There are going to be scenarios in which any person could engage in conduct that rises to the level of overinvesting.  Sure, there are some folks who might have their parents as their backup piggy bank, but still there might even be scenarios in which those persons might end up over-tapping their parents, too.. a card that such persons might not want to play, but then ends up having to attempt to tap again, after already having had tapped and their "overinvesting" gets them into such a pickle.. because the BTC price goes lower and longer than anticipated.

Let's say for example, mindrust goes "all in", but then instead of being a 4 year fractal, bitcoin ends up playing out into a 8 year fractal.  Sure, that might be a long shot, but that kind of situation could really bust someone to have to be able to scramble for 4 years longer than anticipated, and maybe some other shit happens and earning power gets screwed up, too.... Whatever, there are fucked up things that happen in this world, and sometimes what any person does on the margin can make a difference, whether it is pride or whatever, it is very fucking difficult to recover from a BIG loss.. much more difficult than it is to maintain a system that preserves wealth.  I see a lot of poor fucks who are my age (let's just say 40s, 50s, 60s) who did things slightly different than me throughout life, took some BIGGER risks than me, here and there... lived  a good life, but are fucking desperate in their older times, and I am NOT trying to act all self-righteous about the matter, but there is only so much that I am willing to do to help them out while they are struggling with their bills when they should be able to live it up, if they had been a bit more conservative, living within their means and not gambling so much with their finances.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Speaking of over investment in Bitcoin, we should distinguish the two types of "all in". The first type is in terms of fiat savings and the second is in terms of net worth. If someone invested all savings in Bticoin but this is only 50% of his net worth, he has some options. In case of emergency and if the price of Bitcoin is below the investment point, he have a choice to sell some belongings or, if he has a stable job to use bank loan/overdraft/credit card limit.  

Of course, any guy (or gal) is going to need to measure up his/her various resources that are available for when shit hits the fan (or may hit the fan), and yeah, NOT being overinvested many times (maybe most) will mean that emergency funds are not dipped into because they are redundant... they have levels of duplication that might show that circumstances are worse and worse the more emergency funds that are dipped into, and who the fuck wants to be going through his garage trying to figure out what to sell in order to be able to NOT have to sell the nice wheels that are not owned outright.  Honey, maybe we should downsize a bit or take in a lodger?  Fuck downsizing, if the motive is because you have failed to adequately prepare for your situation.  

I am not against taking in a lodger, but sometimes the motive is out of desperation rather than having enough actual space for a lodger who ends up sharing the kitchen, and also building or living in a situation in which you purposefully have a lodger and space available is different from having to force to put a lodger into an already cramped two bedroom apartment or some other less spacious situation that is not of your own choosing... sure some people can rationalize that they like having couch surfers, but that seems like something that would be more of your youth rather than when you get older, or doing it out of desperation, like I mentioned.

[xhomerx10]

Along the lines of walls of text and over-investing...

 I have attempted to find Bitcoin addresses containing 10 letter words (after the initial 1) without regard for case (which makes it much easier) using a list of 22,399 words and the full processing capacity of my computer for 24 hours.  You'll be happy(er) to know, JJG, that I was able to find only one match from that entire list of words:

Pub Addr: 1ExeRcYCLeSxaZkCh7togWcSgcofRYVDLZ
Priv (WIF): L4o3NZYoSf6GVmLaxcaqtmunqiNBs77PNyANmpYtcL6r6dMtcCXb
Priv (HEX): 0xE202278FF792CE920126E8D3A2EE1483AB9FA00807B10B71EAACDAD1DD4D36E4

 and I believe that was mostly due to good luck.

 If I were to try for an exact case-sensitive match of 1ExercycLes (capital L because Bitcoin addresses can't use miniscule L capital I or Capital O) with random characters after it, I would need 2.4 years for a 50% chance of success.  ∴ your funds are SAFU.

 On a sad note, I will likely never find a 1JayJuanGee or a 1micgoossens address and a 1LastoftheV8s is just a pipe dream as I am dangerously close to the limit of my wife's generosity for tolerating computer upgrades for this decade.  (fortunately we start a new one soon!)

 I hate to disappoint Mr. MicG so this is for his reading pleasure:

Pub Addr: 1CLiMAXt43DiJBPT9z7YEppUS8ssPjjUNJ
Priv (WIF): L5BunfnNDEdWC9w4hzWmbHBrUzp44YEp51TPgr6XcHqerghUTKJc
Priv (HEX): 0xEDC5F18B29BDC350F02B9AB4BB067752AD07F944EE697824B5C13452B7769453

 I get those all day long with my current hardware.  

hahahahahaha

I am ssssssoooooooooo glad that you are able to find a hobby that keeps you formulating mathmatical computer problems in your spare time when you are not making hats and keeping your dad in touch with modern computing....  

By the way, I understand that I can be a continuous bubble deflater, but what good do any of these vanity addresses do, anyhow?

Aren't best practices to largely limit use of any one address, and perhaps even one use per address.  Of course, there might be some occasions in which exceptions might be applicable.. for an institution that wants to keep books open or something like that, but private individuals?  Are we reusing bitcoin addresses?   Do you just plan to use some of these generated addresses one time, Xhomerx10?  Then how much good are they?  like a mayfly.. live with fame for only a very short period of time?

 Dammit JJG!  Now you've made me access the deepest and darkest regions of my mind trying to make sense of my life.  Why do I do anything?  What good is any of it?  In the grand scheme of things, is the Mayfly's life really any shorter than my own?  I can justify the existence of the lowly Mayfly much more easily than I can explain my search for and use, misuse or non-use of Bitcoin vanity addresses.

1MyMayfLyHaikuforSunday24zMRuCoLA

Mayfly for a day;
transferring genetic code.
How much good are they?

[jbreher]

Some criteria about Bitcoin bullish ..

Are we in a $BTC bear market?

No, we are in the re-accumulation phase of a bull market.

Source:

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1211024512969428992

That's great. Looks like he is asserting that there is some significant numerical measure entitled 'On-Chain Investor Activity'. What exactly is this measure?

[El duderino_]

^
I missed that one excused, deleted my re post of the WOO master

[xhomerx10]

While I was self-reflecting last night I watched Mad Max (the original) and I realized that I suck at self-reflection.  I found myself trying to get decent screen cap of the interceptor for LastoftheV8s to use as an avatar.





 

[VB1001]

^
I missed that one excused, deleted my re post of the WOO master

Don't worry, today the Plan B chart has come out several times.

[El duderino_]

The battle for stabilizing at $7.4k USD/BTC is slowly coming to an end, according to muh gut bacteria. Observing some desperate moves dumping longs at the moment.

Be strong, brothers.

We will for sure HODL out 2019

Good to here you, Xmass was good ..... let’s hope so and co-HODL strong as well brother, remember BTC-dudes abides !

[JayJuanGee]

Not sure why, but 2020 sounds extremely bullish for crypto (BTC+ALTS). I've got an inner feeling that I'll be rich before presidential elections.

But yeah, we all define "rich" in a different manner, and I believe that if I somehow pull a 5x on my BTC holdings and 10x on my ALTS (which mostly consists of ADA) holdings, I'll be rich. So $50,000/BTC and $0.50/ADA is all basically what I expect (and hope for) before November.

Let's see, let's see...

First of all:  who gives any ratt's asses about alts, whether ADA or otherwise? you are gambling and may as well just dump that shit and put the current value of that crap into BTC.

Second:  My lame math suggests that at current BTC prices, as I type ($7,390-ish), you would need about a 6.76589986X increase in BTC prices to reach $50k, which is slightly more than 5x... 5x is only going to put you at $36,950, which should be a good return, but may not be enough for you to reach your threshold "richie" status.

You're welcome.  

[JayJuanGee]

Along the lines of walls of text and over-investing...

 I have attempted to find Bitcoin addresses containing 10 letter words (after the initial 1) without regard for case (which makes it much easier) using a list of 22,399 words and the full processing capacity of my computer for 24 hours.  You'll be happy(er) to know, JJG, that I was able to find only one match from that entire list of words:

Pub Addr: 1ExeRcYCLeSxaZkCh7togWcSgcofRYVDLZ
Priv (WIF): L4o3NZYoSf6GVmLaxcaqtmunqiNBs77PNyANmpYtcL6r6dMtcCXb
Priv (HEX): 0xE202278FF792CE920126E8D3A2EE1483AB9FA00807B10B71EAACDAD1DD4D36E4

 and I believe that was mostly due to good luck.

 If I were to try for an exact case-sensitive match of 1ExercycLes (capital L because Bitcoin addresses can't use miniscule L capital I or Capital O) with random characters after it, I would need 2.4 years for a 50% chance of success.  ∴ your funds are SAFU.

 On a sad note, I will likely never find a 1JayJuanGee or a 1micgoossens address and a 1LastoftheV8s is just a pipe dream as I am dangerously close to the limit of my wife's generosity for tolerating computer upgrades for this decade.  (fortunately we start a new one soon!)

 I hate to disappoint Mr. MicG so this is for his reading pleasure:

Pub Addr: 1CLiMAXt43DiJBPT9z7YEppUS8ssPjjUNJ
Priv (WIF): L5BunfnNDEdWC9w4hzWmbHBrUzp44YEp51TPgr6XcHqerghUTKJc
Priv (HEX): 0xEDC5F18B29BDC350F02B9AB4BB067752AD07F944EE697824B5C13452B7769453

 I get those all day long with my current hardware.  

hahahahahaha

I am ssssssoooooooooo glad that you are able to find a hobby that keeps you formulating mathmatical computer problems in your spare time when you are not making hats and keeping your dad in touch with modern computing....  

By the way, I understand that I can be a continuous bubble deflater, but what good do any of these vanity addresses do, anyhow?

Aren't best practices to largely limit use of any one address, and perhaps even one use per address.  Of course, there might be some occasions in which exceptions might be applicable.. for an institution that wants to keep books open or something like that, but private individuals?  Are we reusing bitcoin addresses?   Do you just plan to use some of these generated addresses one time, Xhomerx10?  Then how much good are they?  like a mayfly.. live with fame for only a very short period of time?

 Dammit JJG!  Now you've made me access the deepest and darkest regions of my mind trying to make sense of my life.  Why do I do anything?  What good is any of it?  In the grand scheme of things, is the Mayfly's life really any shorter than my own?  I can justify the existence of the lowly Mayfly much more easily than I can explain my search for and use, misuse or non-use of Bitcoin vanity addresses.

1MyMayfLyHaikuforSunday24zMRuCoLA

Mayfly for a day;
transferring genetic code.
How much good are they?

hahahahaha


You are pathetic..... 

#nohomo

 

[VB1001]

1D Bitstamp chart, I'm fine if we close the year at 8000, just a couple more dildos.

[STT]

I officially doubt 8000 :p I think there might be a greater trend taking priority but price can go anywhere if volume should stay light then later confirm elsewhere on greater full market volume.

So $50,000/BTC and $0.50/ADA is all basically what I expect (and hope for) before November.

50k BTC is 2021 talk if we are lucky, if we are lucky at all in the next decade as far as I can see.   Forget the price, we have to consider the total market capital available in this sector or even just BTC but that total then is in contrast to other asset types and alternative markets to this one.   If bonds leak alot of value (they've risen since Reagan first got in) then yea 50k I agree but even then alot of that value is going to gold, other FIAT currency especially commodity wealthy countries with good trade balance and of course stocks always rise nominally when value of the currency declines unless the business fails but globally that wont be it.    
  In short 50k BTC has to be on a seesaw  and see some other value go down as BTC rises, thats what I expect.   Large figures dont move as easily, naturally the rate of change should not be increasing but decreasing over time.

BTC price right now is at some resistance.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Coinland.
Happy 5th day of Xmas.
5 golden bitcoins.

We're creeping upward
Seven four twenty dollars
(Bitcoinaverage).

Let's finish the year
With a spectacular rise
For a new decade.

[Last of the V8s]

https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-long-now-pt-4-snip/

At first glance this looks incredibly pretentious. Might give it another go when less tired.
https://medium.com/@nic__carter/in-support-of-the-proof-of-work-un-fair-launch-cd6e8f06358f

This looks downright boring but maybe am being a bit hasty.
https://bitcoinops.org/en/newsletters/2019/12/28/

Summarises old crap from the year. Actually possibly not too bad.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Some criteria about Bitcoin bullish ..

Are we in a $BTC bear market?

No, we are in the re-accumulation phase of a bull market.

Source:

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1211024512969428992

That's great. Looks like he is asserting that there is some significant numerical measure entitled 'On-Chain Investor Activity'. What exactly is this measure?

I think it is because of the volume, and it may take it, supported perhaps by a possible divergence. It's what I can intuit from there

[Last of the V8s]

Parabolic up!

[Lauda]

Parabolic up!

Where's our "Go, Bitcoin, Go" guy when we need him?