Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Millionero]

Monthly DT1 Update by theymos if anybody is interested -

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5117330.0

Spoiler - theymos is rotated out  

And what, may I ask, is DT?

[1713585419]

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[1713585419]

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[LUCKMCFLY]

Nice Article ´Falsifying the log growth model of Bitcoin value´

we encounter a good reason to take the log of the price — the span is much too broad.

Source: https://medium.com/@phraudsta/falsifying-the-log-growth-model-of-bitcoin-value-7db6ca3603f2?

[jojo69]

heteroscedasticity

[JayJuanGee]

OT: Holy shit, is Palladium in an uber massive spec bubble or what?  

never heard of it. 

[xhomerx10]

heteroscedasticity

 Augmented Dickey Fuller

[JayJuanGee]

3 January - Bitcoin Genesis Block constructed 11 years ago today

Isn't it strange that scammer CSW is listed in that article (I constrained myself from clicking on any video linked in the article involving that fucktwat), as if he had anything to do with bitcoin, beyond attempting to mislead, deceive and scam innocent peeps?  So to me it seems that any link or reference to him would also have a misleading, deceiving and scamming impact, no?

TLDR: Idea of bitcoin 11 year b-day completely valid... Idea that fucktwat scamster knows anything about it besides reading about it misleading, deceptive and scammy at best.

Can we cite a better article regarding king daddy's 11 year old b-day... wouldn't any of us have liked to have been a "king daddy" at only 11?    

What are you mumbling about "king daddies" and 11 years old you perv?

You deny all that you like regarding your purported holier than thou non king daddy desires, but I already know you sufficiently good to know that you would not have minded having had reached king daddy status by the time 11 years old (and surely even earlier than that).

And where is your prediction on Mic's game? We are all waiting for your wall-of-text prediction over there. C'on show those wordless noobs how it's done!  

I have not changed my mind in regards to pay for play... even though I appreciate anyone who elects to donate their winnings, there still is a problem with the whole pay for play concept, so I just say no to that kind of stuff.

Remember nancy reagan.... ?




For some reason, I like this one, moar better:

 

 

JJG is very cautious, I think he will be on theymos line, which is not a bad prediction and possibly that is the scenario,
but Bitcoin is an indomitable beast, we must not forget this.

To tell the truth, I am a bit disappointed with another quarterly timeline, and believe that there is much more excitement in the timing of any prediction to the actual block of the halvening.

Are we in a real world of true and steady bitcoin blocks that are relevant to our considerations regarding the passage of time?

Sure, I am conservative in my personal expectations because I do not want to be disappointed, so I am surely prepared for Theymos type scenarios and even worse, but in terms of a halvening prediction, I am thinking that we gotta go supra $10k between now and then... I am talking the halvening, not the end of the quarter in which I could give less than two shits about the end of the quarter.. especially when we have a halvening coming within about 6 weeks thereafter.

So, yeah, halvening... supra $10k, and maybe below $13,880... but surely I would NOT mind seeing a front running, but I am thinking that we might not get such considerable front running before the actual halvening..... but even reaching new ATHs before November 2020.. would end up being a kind of front running of the 4 year fractal, which surely is far from out of the question.

I can safely say that he is not a microgoose.

He might need his own "beat him up" day of the week... like some other peep(s) not to be mentioned... since we are currently in Saturday-ish territory.  

In the end I'll probably make a lot less money but doing it like this I have no problems at night while sleeping.

Guys I am starting to have sleep problems Because bitcoin will moon and I am not all in

Get the fuck in.  All in, if you recognize what I am mumbling^tm (courtesy of bitserve), here?  What are you waiting for?  Bad advices from dumb made-up nym peeps inside the interwebs?

Follow your passionenings.. and start to sleep MOAR better!!!!!!!  #nohomo

[JayJuanGee]

3 January - Bitcoin Genesis Block constructed 11 years ago today

(I constrained myself from clicking on any video linked in the article involving that fucktwat)

Gratuitous virtue-signaling disclaimer is hilarious.

That is why I place it in those cutie pie lillie parentheses .... Like this:  "(.........)"......

Pro tip:  Try it some time, it will make you feel much MOAR better about your new van, even though you failed and refused to get four wheel drive in it because you were so maniacally obsessed with the plain Jane color.        

3 January - Bitcoin Genesis Block constructed 11 years ago today

(I constrained myself from clicking on any video linked in the article involving that fucktwat)

Gratuitous virtue-signaling disclaimer is hilarious.

I do not see why.  It is really par for the course.  I mean, I have bet a significant amount of Money that CSW is not who he says he is, and is therefore accurately described by our resident asshat wordy-man. (also accurate)

You should speak about others, cAPSLOCK, when you are not even willing to demonstrate a de minimus quantity of emotional forbearance to substantively respond to a bit of an "explanatory" explorationings.  Go figure?


 

[JayJuanGee]

^
Lack of activity with that woman

You know how to fix that!

I will need some guidance to get her more online as it is .......  

Tie her up next to the computer, and tell her that you are not going to feed her until she types at least one post every two weeks. It works every time (until it doesn't).  You will thank me later.

[VB1001]

A decade of returns sorted by asset class (including BTC).
Thank you to http://www.offthechain.capital  for producing this chart.

https://twitter.com/BrianEstes32/status/1212843876337299463

[Millionero]

Nice Article ´Falsifying the log growth model of Bitcoin value´

we encounter a good reason to take the log of the price — the span is much too broad.

Source: https://medium.com/@phraudsta/falsifying-the-log-growth-model-of-bitcoin-value-7db6ca3603f2?

Putting time on a log scale makes no sense to me.  Time doesn't aggregate quantity, like a price going up several orders of magnitude, or power measured in decibels.  The year 2020 is no more massive in that sense than the year the earth was formed.  
In fact, the log time scale gives an inferior fit.  
Empirically, an inverse quadratic time scale fits bictoin's log price history better than log time does (ugh, just writing "log time" makes me queasy).  
Which agrees with my sense.

sucking slime out of dead whale skulls

Don't knock it til you've tried it

[bitserve]

It's almost funny how some days I decide to quietly contemplate and compare Bitcoin graphs in different timeframes, during hours, as if I was gonna see a signal/pattern that instantly enlightened my mind and everything were going to be crystal clear then.


Spoiler: Nope. Nothing. Again. Will just keep hodling and waiting. As always.

[Millionero]

It's almost funny how some days I decide to quietly contemplate and compare Bitcoin graphs in different timeframes, during hours, as if I was gonna see a signal/pattern that instantly enlightened my mind and everything were going to be crystal clear then.


Spoiler: Nope. Nothing. Again. Will just keep hodling and waiting. As always.

Don't abandon your quest.
Siddhartha had to sit under the bodhi tree seven weeks before he saw the signal that enlightened his mind.

[Biodom]

A decade of returns sorted by asset class (including BTC).
Thank you to http://www.offthechain.capital  for producing this chart.

https://twitter.com/BrianEstes32/status/1212843876337299463

So, btc was either first (by a mile) or dead last...You never know what you gonna get, but much better chance than even for btc outperformance (so far)

REITs -nice show as well, probably boosted by the RE uptick after the GFC.
Maybe RE is a place to put some fiat in the next few years as stocks might disappoint due to overvaluation.

[VB1001]

Have been asked to expand on this. While we have such limited data during the 2 full cycles thus far we've seen comparable $BTC performance in the 1,2, & 3 years pre-halving. Do we see similar performance yet again the year of and year post which would mean +100% performance? https://twitter.com/Rptr45/status/1212755833249042432 …

https://twitter.com/Rptr45/status/1213194896535891969

Although we will have difficult days, I think that every day, month, year, hodlers increase against weak hands and this is a clear sign of consolidation.

[jojo69]

back in a bit guys, it is make a log time

[Biodom]

Have been asked to expand on this. While we have such limited data during the 2 full cycles thus far we've seen comparable $BTC performance in the 1,2, & 3 years pre-halving. Do we see similar performance yet again the year of and year post which would mean +100% performance? https://twitter.com/Rptr45/status/1212755833249042432 …

https://twitter.com/Rptr45/status/1213194896535891969

Although we will have difficult days, I think that every day, month, year, hodlers increase against weak hands and this is a clear sign of consolidation.

I am sorry, but this one has unreliable data:

from 12/31/2014 closing at 320.19 to 12/31/2015 closing at 430.57 is ONLY 34.47% vs indicated (88.1%).
I did not bother to check other numbers.

[fillippone]

<...>

I am sorry, but this one has unreliable data:

from 12/31/2014 closing at 320.19 to 12/31/2015 closing at 430.57 is ONLY 34.47% vs indicated (88.1%).
I did not bother to check other numbers.

“Don’t trust, verify”

[VB1001]

<...>

I am sorry, but this one has unreliable data:

from 12/31/2014 closing at 320.19 to 12/31/2015 closing at 430.57 is ONLY 34.47% vs indicated (88.1%).
I did not bother to check other numbers.

“Don’t trust, verify”

https://twitter.com/Rptr45/status/1212755833249042432

Now I can't do the check, but I think it refers to this graph.

[bitserve]

It's almost funny how some days I decide to quietly contemplate and compare Bitcoin graphs in different timeframes, during hours, as if I was gonna see a signal/pattern that instantly enlightened my mind and everything were going to be crystal clear then.


Spoiler: Nope. Nothing. Again. Will just keep hodling and waiting. As always.

Don't abandon your quest.
Siddhartha had to sit under the bodhi tree seven weeks before he saw the signal that enlightened his mind.

Good one

I have checked your post history: You are funny, knowledgeable and seem to have been involved in crypto since 2013. (#nohomo)

Why do you not have a hat? You surely deserve one.

[realr0ach]

Hi Wall Observers,

Better late than never: ****** Happy new year, the best wishes and good health in 2020!! ******

xoxo Cryptoqueeen

This is why wahmen are banned from the forum.  We would be permanently knee deep in vapid, meaningless text like this resembling a last minute, gas station birthday or Christmas card written by a Chinese man then translated into English.  Sort of like JayJuanGee posts except shorter.

Wahmen are sort of low effort organisms in general.  Life takes the path of least resistance in evolutionary terms, so as long wahmen believe the sheer act of existing and being a 3/10 or higher makes them some sort of valuable resource, and loser men worship them for this fact and put them up on a pedestal, it's a system of positive reinforcement creating an endless assembly line of more bimbos.  Lauda - leader of the global, digital scamcoin movement - is probably around a 2/10, just under the 3/10 threshold for wahmen believing they're some sort of deity that should be worshipped instead of negative yielding assets, so her posts are much higher effort; but still, being a wahmen, completely terrible.

To top things off, the flooding of countries with 3rd world brown zombies amplifies this phenomenon exponentially higher.  Virtually nobody wants to invest in negative yielding assets (white women), and even less people want junk bonds (brown women).  So the demand that does exist is entirely for white bimbos.  Importing a bunch of brown zombies just lopsides the demand of white bimbos to be vastly higher than supply, making white bimbos think they're delusionally even more valuable and important than they already are.  It's a lose/lose scenario for everyone except bimbos whose relative worth skyrockets, until they hit their expiration date of 25.  Then the bimbos themselves lose because they irrationally thought their value was ridiculously higher than it really is and don't even know how to act at that point.