See the triangle from 2014? It took 1 year to all the way down. Only then we started to consolidate for a year. Then rise. Looks like our current triangle is about to take MORE than 2 years. Maybe even 3. Fuck.
I have heard this kind of seemingly negative talk coming out of your keyboard previously, and such pessimisms did not seem to play out as negatively as you had been preparing yourself.
I heard the opposite from you, too, even recently.. was it last week or two weeks ago?...hahahahahaha.. about "all in" and all that.... go figure?
(your all over the place, mindrust... hahahahaha)Hey, nothing wrong with preparing both financially and psychologically for the worser-case scenario possibilities.
I just doubt that attributing too much weight to chart lines (and triangles or whatever other shape you can identify therein) should get you all in a tizzy about "likely price direction" towards the down or sideways or how long it could take to surpass previous ATH or to reach new ATH for next cycle.
I largely agree with the seemingly relevant and material facts as you highlighted them..... In that regard, yeah, it took a year to go down from prior ATH to consolidation arena in both 2014 and 2018... so very similar there regarding how long it took to for BTC to apparently get to the bottom of the cycle (that is presuming that December 2018 and $3,124 is the bottom of this particular cycle).
So far, the 2015 and 2019, consolidation periods seem to be playing out differently from one another, meaning that 2019 is ahead of what had happened in 2015. The mere seeming fact that 2019 is coming out ahead of 2015 or that it has been a bit more bullish and less painful than 2015, does not automatically imply that more correction or consolidation has to happen before BTC can resume with up and to reach the earlier ATH or to make new ATHs of our next upward's cycle (presuming such a cycle is going to come).
Again, I am NOT proclaiming to know anything meaningful about BTC's future price direction, and I am just a bit more bothered by what had seemed to have been your attempting to assign some kind of value regarding what seems to be necessary to happen that does not even logically make a lot of sense (unless you are listening to people who are failing and refusing to understand BTC fundamentals and some of the upwards power that it has).... which in essence, you seem to be suggesting that because we had so much UP in recent times, we need to experience more DOWN or SIDEWAYS before BTC prices are capable of resuming UP... and such logic seems almost opposite of what seems logical to me.
To me, it seems that the various bullish spurts upwards justifies that either surpassing our old ATH or making new ATHs could end up playing out ahead of schedule, and I am NOT even putting a lot of weight into those "ahead of schedule" or "front running" hypotheses, but only highlighting those ahead of schedule or front running hypotheses as equally plausible theories to what seems to be your either "down before up" or "sideways before up" hypothesizations.
I hope It doesn't happen that way and we'll see a moon rocket straight to the new ATH after the halvening.
The only good news is on these charts, 200 Weekly MA is pretty much the safest bottom and you can't lose if you buy from that support line.
Fair enough that none of us wants down before up and that we prefer up, and sure continuing to buy BTC remains a good practice... including employing ongoing dollar cost averaging and even seeing that we could get more down or even be close to the bottom or prudent thoughts to have in terms of recognizing buying and stacking sats as likely to pay off in the long run... whether it takes 6 months in a more bullish scenario or more than 36 months in a less bullish scenario.
Even a less bullish scenario, of reaching ATHs again in 2023 would still give good overall returns from our current price because that is about 2.4x increase from our current price. None of us should be complaining about those kinds of levels in terms of relative returns, even if it seems a bit bearish, currently.... and I still cannot really point out any other asset that I would rather be "in" in terms of upside potential when projecting out 2-4 years from today.
Now looking back at the 2013-2017 bowl, it looks so tiny. Damn.
Does not look tiny to me. but maybe in a few years, it might look tiny.. especially if we get any kind of price rise that is even close to the one that happened between late 2015 and late 2017.... which was around 78x...** ... even if we get half of that... which might be too optimistic.. but still within realms of possible... .. maybe 10x to 20x would still cause the 2013 to 2017 bowl to begin to look small... perhaps? Perhaps? Depends, in part, upon how long it takes to play out, and I would agree that it can be quite difficult to really conjecture with any kind of meaningful confidence, while we are in the midst of figuring out where we are going, exactly...
** Note: By the way, I frequently, like to use $250 as my late 2015 bouncing off point because I consider that $250 price to be a fair foundation for where we started in 2015 rather than the actual low that was something like $152.... and fuck $152.. even though there were a couple of sub $200 BTC price spikes in early and in late 2015... I still consider $250 to be a more fair representation of our 2015 jumping off point.. and the beginning of that particular bull market. Regarding our next jumping off point, I doubt that we can know that yet, because we are in the midst of still figuring out whether the bottom is "in" and where the fuck we are going, exactly.. are we in a bull market or a bear market, and even though since about May 2019 the evidence seems to support that we had transitioned into a bull market, that tentative assertion NO longer seems to be as strong as it had seemed to have been in May/June-ish... and sure, we are witnessing a lot of assertions that we currently are in a bear market, and I still don't find those assertions to be convincing, but future price performance will clarify these matters and thereby clarify what to consider for our reasonable BTC price jumping off point for our next exponential BTC price rise (presuming that one is coming at some point).
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