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Question: What causes you more fear? (credit:Micg)
Coronavirus - 94 (54.3%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21581212 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (143 posts by 33 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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January 16, 2020, 12:37:56 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

never got that

gold is good, silver is good, quality machine tools and weapons are good, Bitcoin is good

land is...ok

everything else?  not so much

Pussy
Cocaine
Beer
Lambos
Yachts
Leer Jets
Islands


Helrow?HuhHuh?   Angry


FTFY  ?
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January 16, 2020, 12:47:21 AM



LUCKMCFLY
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January 16, 2020, 02:32:48 AM
Merited by fillippone (1)

Some market speculation..


Quote
The model appears to model the bubbles ánd bear markets fairly well. It confirms a certain inertia of price reaction, so a lag ánd overshoot. Model would predict: Price will catch up with S2F ratio a year after the halving. And overshoot by ~ 2x. (3/3)  h/t Tom!


Source: https://twitter.com/Geertjancap/status/1217552995065442307
JayJuanGee
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January 16, 2020, 03:21:49 AM



Land is pretty crap actually.


Bitcoiner should avoid maximalist attitude, its harmful in many ways similar to monolithic religion.

You live on land or fiat or Bitcoin?


Let's make it simple: I don't like governments. I don't really want to be governed at all.

What I like is unconfiscatable sound money.
Very enlightened answer. Let's boycott government and starting with internet. They invented this, Agree?

You can't completely live a government-free life obviously but you can get close.

Why do you think they are trying to ban every anonymous payment method there is? (like cash)

I am not saying we should kill the politicians. I am again, hedging my position. Because that's my main algorithm in life. Always hedge. Fuck zerohedge.

Good to see you are changing goal post, i don't mind that. Actually i was expecting the same.
Anyway for the record, government is essential part of the society without them we are fucked if anyone disagree then i am ready to argue all night. Even the guy droping you merits or even jjg . Tongue

No need to worry, JSRAW.  I am not going to bombard you with walls of text on that topic, because even if i might not agree with you regarding some of the details regarding which aspects of the government are essential or how the people might arrive at consensual government, don't count me as some fantasy-landia believer that getting rid of all government is actually a goal that is reasonable or meaningful in a complex society.  Yeah, it might work on an unpopulated island or some other desolate location, but when you have a multitude of people there are going to be a decent number of justifications for government for a variety of reasons that are quite difficult to list out, and also since government is a product of consensus, no one person is really able to define those kinds of resolutions of when the government should be budding in and when they should be budding out, and even though I am using "they", I could just as well be saying "us" because I am not even saying that governments are a third party.  


And in any case if you really know what's the problem with the government. Why don't you try to change it ? But yeah bitching about something is free, we don't need any spine for that and trying to change something takes shitload amount of work.

no argument from this cat, even though everyone should have a right to complain about various aspects of the government and figure out ways in which s/he might attempt to contribute to changing whatever aspects might need fixing.. and frequently there are many things like that, and lots of differences of opinions about whether something needs fixing or not.

Let me break a bubble for you. every one can live their own life without gov but it takes hard work and tones of sacrifice, which none of us here in WO are capable of atleast in longer run.

You never know about WO... you might be interacting with some folks who are very involved in government in various ways, and maybe even that fucktard, the donald, is participating in this thread, not that he serves as a good example of a representative of the government, but he serves as a good representative of himself and someone who should not be given power over public interests and public goods.... Anyhow, my only point is that each of us in this thread is empowered to do various governmental things or to express our concerns and sure some people might be more capable than others or even more deserving of serving as a public official.

About why they are banning : gov or human civilization is scared about anything which is new to them so no brainer. It might be helpful if we can look at all case as chessboard or may be read human history in details.

Some people get elected to government or appointed, and their goals are to destroy government... so there is that.

* Using phone so not replying with proper quotes.

You are fired.  You are no longer authorized to speak on behalf of the WO peeps... especially if you fail/refuse to properly use quotes.

Reminds me of a lil story.  You know how sometimes people will sometimes say, if you work hard, it is o.k. if you do not achieve your objectives, so in that sense there is some value to the fact that you worked hard and you put in a lot of effort.   For example in school, you might get a decent grade on a project because you the teacher (person giving the grade) determined that you had worked hard, even though your answers were not right and/or the quality of your work was not very good.  

I remember one time, maybe about 15 years ago, I had a boss who was lecturing me about some of my recent work and how a project was going, and maybe even questioning some of the decisions that I had made along the way of carrying out my work projects, and he said to me that he does not care how hard that I worked on such project, the main thing that he wanted was a good product and that I had made all of the right choices along the way... hahahahaha   He said it much more eloquently, and it was based on the circumstances, yet I was impressed with new ideas and I will always remember that statement because it seemed to have gone against some of my prior ideas about the value of working hard, even if NOT successful.  

Since then I have used that statement on others when I had assessed their work product as being defective in various ways.

I am not in the debate mood. I leave you to JJG.

Imma sleepy.

I am sure when I wake up in the morning I'll see at least 5 new WO pages.

Fuck the governments, good night.

Hahahahaha

Good and well reasoned points.   Wink

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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January 16, 2020, 03:38:11 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

Just spent an hour educating myself on Bitcoin entropy inspired by a r0ach post, haha. Picked up a couple gems from here anyway.
https://medium.com/the-bitcoin-times/bitcoins-eternal-struggle-2c197f1bafd8
I liked the argument that BTC is mostly informational however nonetheless physical which negates r0aches claim that it's imaginary.

Quote
Bitcoin lives mostly in the informational realm, and just like all other information systems, it needs to store and process the information via a physical medium. Thus, if you change information in Bitcoin, you effectively change a thing in the real world. Whether that thing is a solid-state disk, USB stick, hard drive, optical storage medium, or something else doesn’t matter.
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no FOMO


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January 16, 2020, 03:38:20 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), jbreher (1)


No need to worry, JSRAW.  I am not going to bombard you with walls of text on that topic, because even if i might not agree with you regarding some of the details regarding which aspects of the government are essential or............................................................................. ...........



zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz z









zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz








jesus...still?











fuck this
bitserve
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January 16, 2020, 03:48:47 AM
Merited by LUCKMCFLY (1)

Some market speculation..


Quote
The model appears to model the bubbles ánd bear markets fairly well. It confirms a certain inertia of price reaction, so a lag ánd overshoot. Model would predict: Price will catch up with S2F ratio a year after the halving. And overshoot by ~ 2x. (3/3)  h/t Tom!


Source: https://twitter.com/Geertjancap/status/1217552995065442307

Good thing about all those models that predict exponential gains in the near future is that they are either gonna finally fail soon... or I will be "rich enough".

2021/22 is just around the corner. I can wait. I really can't believe I will make it sooooo well but... let's see what the future brings!

P.S.: If I had to bet, I would say there is not much more than a 10% probability that Bitcoin reaches a solid (not a flash spike) $100K even in the next *FIVE* years. And I think I am being optimistic here.
I do think there is more than a 50% probability of reaching ATH again in less than two years though.
JayJuanGee
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January 16, 2020, 03:52:31 AM


No need to worry, JSRAW.  I am not going to bombard you with walls of text on that topic, because even if i might not agree with you regarding some of the details regarding which aspects of the government are essential or............................................................................. ...........



zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz z









zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz








jesus...still?











fuck this

Don't be so hating on ideas, jo-squared... six right side up and six upside down.. 
jbreher
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January 16, 2020, 04:28:42 AM

What I am suggesting is that two years in a row of 10x would still be a 100x, and even the most bullish of bitcoin prognosticators are not projecting anything like that...

OTOH, would not be astonished.
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January 16, 2020, 04:45:08 AM

What I am suggesting is that two years in a row of 10x would still be a 100x, and even the most bullish of bitcoin prognosticators are not projecting anything like that...

OTOH, would not be astonished.

I believe that you agree with my ongoing assessment and spin regarding the 2015 to 2017 BTC price rise to $20k that was about 78x having had gone about 3x to 5x more bullish than the vast majority of bullish anticipations, even though such BTC price rise was still within parameters of possibilities, it just ended up being a scenario that was a bit higher than expected for many folks HODLing BTC.

Sure, I was not around for the 2012 to 2013 BTC price appreciation, but that one ended up being two bumps, and really we could argue that the 2012/2013 price rise started from about July 2012 and bouncing off from sub $6 prices that added up to way more than the 2015-2017 price appreciation in a shorter period of time.  The high in 2013 was $1,163, so that would have been about a 193x price appreciation.

In BTC's future, 100x in two years would really be stupendous, and even though I kind of addressed this issue already, I really would expect this next upcoming BTC price run to be smaller than 2017.. maybe half or less (so 15x to 30x might be kind of a range of reasonable, but maybe a bit more would be reasonable, too?)

I suppose in sum, I can see 100x happening in 2 years, but I would be a bit astonished.. even though reasonable arguments can be made for it. That could be a $300k to $700k per BTC price point, depending upon what is considered as the foundational starting point... which is within the realm of possibilities and merely just puts BTC prices (and market cap) at gold market cap parity.. more or less.
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January 16, 2020, 04:49:30 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

It's a sign! Activity 90...Merit 9....Jupiter 9.posts 90...90=9+0=9....9=9....9=9....9999   9+9=18 ...18=1+8=9

Awww. You broke it.

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January 16, 2020, 04:49:51 AM

Can you guys please stop talking about completely irrational future gains?

You are spoiling all the fun... were it to occur. Which it won't. Probably. Just no.
JayJuanGee
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January 16, 2020, 04:53:16 AM

Can you guys please stop talking about completely irrational future gains please?

You are spoiling all the fun... were it to occur. Which it won't. Probably. Just no.

We did this last time too... not just me and jbreher.. but the royal we....

It is still fun when it happens (that is, if it happens).  So there.   Tongue

Even if BTC prices go up to ONLY $50k.. you are still going to be wetting your panties, even though "we" warned you in advance.   Wink


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy (In other words, pee pare ur lil selfie)
bitserve
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January 16, 2020, 05:00:54 AM

Can you guys please stop talking about completely irrational future gains please?

You are spoiling all the fun... were it to occur. Which it won't. Probably. Just no.

We did this last time too... not just me and jbreher.. but the royal we....

It is still fun when it happens (that is, if it happens).  So there.   Tongue

Even if the price goes up to ONLY $50k.. you are going to be wetting your panties.   Wink


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Yup, at $50K I would be barely "rich enough" but... I won't believe it. At least not if that comes too soon, like in a couple of years.

My optimistic/best scenario from several years ago was 10K€ for 2020. Never expected it to come way sooner (2017). Would be great to be wrong again in the timeline, but I don't expect to be so lucky this time.

Anyway, step by step. Price looks good. I wouldn't be surprised by another 2x this year or even reaching ATH. $50K can wait... if it ever comes.
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January 16, 2020, 05:35:06 AM

Can you guys please stop talking about completely irrational future gains?

You are spoiling all the fun... were it to occur. Which it won't. Probably. Just no.

Hal Finney already talked about the most outlandish scenario ages ago, so anything lower (like by a factor of 200X lower) might be considered quite rational and very much so. It's not like we are levering to the hilt or borrowing against future 50K btc. The only problem I see is that btc never allows for a nice 1-2 mo flat top distribution.
It always produces a super spike up followed by the 50% down in a few days or a couple of weeks.
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January 16, 2020, 06:11:02 AM
Merited by Icygreen (2)

I really thought that it was jonoiv that I was responding to - hence my aggression.

Not like anybody here is going to listen to *my* opinion on this matter, but... jonoiv gotz a bum rap in this thread. Undeservedly.
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January 16, 2020, 06:14:31 AM


@pierre_rochard

Bitcoin halvings have historically been fully priced in 1+ years after the halving, not before or days after.

Lower your time preference!

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January 16, 2020, 06:22:08 AM
Last edit: January 16, 2020, 08:32:32 AM by jbreher

Has anybody here ever bought BSV?

Please, be honest guys. I could do with a good laugh.

Don't be coy. You *know* I did.

Laugh all you want.

Just getting started.
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January 16, 2020, 06:29:16 AM

Sure, I remember before you even got into seasteading, you had made a pretty gutsy move to invest all the proceeds from your sale of your house into bitcoin, and you were ridiculed about that for a while

Who was it that did the ridiculing?

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January 16, 2020, 06:46:22 AM

I'm ready. Grin

Warning - while you were typing 293 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post.

Sorry, no cake this time.
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