Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Why it would go up please? I don't understand...

Cos it's BTC.

What do you mean? It's something that goes up with no reason? Till which level?

To 9000, obviously.

Because it would suit you? 

In two years it will go much higher than $9k.

two years seems to be a bit of a stretched out scenario...

We are looking at ATH that is quite likely within this calendar year, but could drag out to 15-20 months from here...

If we are still dangling in the $9k arena, even a year from now, I would be quite surprised....even though I understand that almost anything is possible in bitcoinlandia... To look at the bright side of such potential bearishness or dragging out of our current consolidation period, it would just be more time to accumulate MOAR coins, I suppose.... and probably some long time HODLers might move up their BTC price buying threshold.. I mean the point in which they purposefully inject new money into the system.  Most people have a discretionary cashflow, and some HODLers might have decided largely not to inject new money into BTC unless the price is below a certain price point, but if consolidation stays around for an extended time, pretty soon some of that cashflow might start to accumulate and incentivize moving the buying threshold up.. from $6k to $8k or some other movement of such BTC buying threshold.

[1713246940]

1713246940

[1713246940]

1713246940

[1713246940]

1713246940

[1713246940]

1713246940

[efialtis]

Observers - poker anyone?!

REGISTRATION IS NOW OPEN - REGISTRATION IS NOW OPEN - REGISTRATION IS NOW OPEN - REGISTRATION IS NOW OPEN

Hey guys,

happy to announce that our first bitcointalk poker tournament is now open for registration in sportsbet´s poker lobby.  

I will PM you guys the password. If anyone else would like to join, dont hesitate to get in touch.

Please let us know after having registered successfully!

Questions/Problems? Shoot! And feel free to bring more players!

Edit: PMs sent - please get in touch if I forgot you!

[JayJuanGee]

You don't like dollars?  Name your poison.  Gold?  BTC gonna go up against gold.  Light Sweet Crude?  BTC goin' up.  The price of ladyboys in Bangkok?  BTC will go up.

......
How much you paying for ladyboys these days? BTC price prefferable  

I hate to be white-knighting Millionero or any other WO peep for that matter, but I am fairly positive that Millionero was only speaking hypothetically in regards to the ladyboy matter, not from actual personal experience(s). 

Now I am getting embarrassing.

[Globb0]

If opening SMTP may risk getting blacklisted by ISPs?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@APompilano
Want to know a secret that only rich people know?

You aren't going to become wealthy through a salary.

You either need to own something or get your money to earn money for you.

Trading time for money won't get it done.

Learn what rich people do and replicate it.
https://twitter.com/apompliano/status/1220856062804447234?s=21

[JayJuanGee]

Morning, all. Latest analysis:

This is the general idea:

Are we mostly bulls or bears in here?

TLDR: seems to be that you are saying "down before up"

Where have I heard that before?



Should we really take that seriously?

How much weight should we be giving to such seemingly scripted prognosticating?    

Is our doom, inevitable?   

[Icygreen]

You don't like dollars?  Name your poison.  Gold?  BTC gonna go up against gold.  Light Sweet Crude?  BTC goin' up.  The price of ladyboys in Bangkok?  BTC will go up.

......
How much you paying for ladyboys these days? BTC price prefferable  

I hate to be white-knighting Millionero or any other WO peep for that matter, but I am fairly positive that Millionero was only speaking hypothetically in regards to the ladyboy matter, not from actual personal experience(s). 

Now I am getting embarrassing.

Hopefully seen as friendly banter. Just having some fun. You knew that right?.... right?

[Cryptotourist]

TLDR: seems to be that you are saying "down before up"

Where have I heard that before?



Should we really take that seriously?

How much weight should we be giving to such seemingly scripted prognosticating?    

Is our doom, inevitable?  

Bravo JJG - your best post ever - it's moments like this one that make me really proud, bravo.

[JayJuanGee]

Every minute BULL

I will be angry if we go below $8,000 now because I made a significant buy last night.

I know 1BTC is 1BTC but always nice to get them cheaper.

Oh shit!!!!

LFC following mindrust too much, and got swayed towards quasi-"all in".... overleveraged in the short-term.    

What u gonna do?  (that's a rhetorical question)

By the way, on a personal level, I had about 5 buy orders that were clustered in the supra $8k arena, and so far only one out of the five of them has filled...... and that one order was filled like around two days ago, already.   So yeah, it can sometimes take a while to figure out whether the DOWN before UP is over or if such DOWN before UP is going to continue for a while longer. 

I don't really care too much about if those additional orders fill or NOT, but anyone who has experience in setting buy and sell orders will sometimes recognize some of the frustration in letting the price come to their order rather than market buying/selling or changing sentiment in regards to "what to do."  So, currently, there is a bit of frustration with myself when I see that I have a bit of a cluster of orders that are pretty damned close to getting filled, but then they have not yet filled... .. yet even with that minor frustration, I don't feel any burning inclination to tweak my short term strategy or to tweak my orders in order to cause them to fill more easily (even if such tweaking would not likely make any kind of meaningful difference overall, it is kind of the principle of the matter for me to attempt to practice what I preach in terms of attempting to employ patience with the whole matter).

So, yeah, even when trying to set BTC buy/sell orders in a kind of emotionally neutral manner, when the BTC price come within a few dollars of filling (and sometimes even within a few cents of filling), but then such orders do NOT fill, there can be a bit of baby-level frustration in that, even though the original intention had been to set the orders in such a way that was meant to be MOSTLY emotional neutral.

[Phil_S]

Good Saturday morning, WO gang! I just saw a cool video and made this gif. I am going to have some coffee with my friends now, and this is how I will feel peeking at the price 

Dinner and the show!

Fancy.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Interesting factors taken into account for predictions.

How to Make Correct Bitcoin Predictions:

Rule 1: If price went up like crazy in the last 4-5 months, project the same increase 4-5 months into the future.

Rule 2: Copy the 3-4 year prediction of a power law model. Maybe adjust it a bit downwards to be safe.

Rule 3 below...

Rule 3: After a bear market project a similar growth as at the start of a previous cycle 6-12 months into the future.

Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinEcon/status/1221002064165330945

[JimboToronto]

You aren't going to become wealthy through a salary.

You either need to own something or get your money to earn money for you.

Trading time for money won't get it done.

Learn what rich people do and replicate it.

Thank you Bitcoin.

[JayJuanGee]

Every minute BULL

I will be angry if we go below $8,000 now because I made a significant buy last night.

If buying Bitcoin can make you angry, I recommend not doing it. I been dollar cost averaging since Nov 14th, even buying above $8K, so will be happy if it goes back down below it.
My m₿ p/h at work has crashed significantly in recent weeks, but fortunately it doesn't make me angry. I'm always hoping my m₿ p/h goes up over the coming months, not down.
If Bitcoin goes up, then my money goes up. If Bitcoin goes down, then my m₿ p/h goes up. It's a win win, as long as we don't crash below $5K after the halving 

1) I believe that I understand what you are saying, but could you spell out m₿ p/h?  Usually if you use an unfamiliar acronym, you will say what it is, at least one time, and it should be easily referable, like in the same post, for example.

2) regarding going below $5k:   surely we have to be prepared for anything, and surely going below $5k could happen.. we are not exactly a long way from there, right now, but it does seem like the odds of going below $5k after the halvening would be pretty low.. maybe even below 10%?  Not sure about how to assign probabilities of that, exactly, but it is far from a non-zero chance - even though UP would be much preferable to HODLers, but we also should realize that there remains a decent number of BIG players that would like to either prove the various BTC price prediction models to be wrong (which would not really be an easy accomplishment) or more easily cause the appearance of them being wrong (which would be an easier thing to pull off).  In any event, even 4 months can sometimes feel like a long time in bitcoinlandia... .. so a snarky thing to proclaim at this point is that the next 4-6 months are critical.^tm

[DaRude]

you have no fear that CSWs insane mind will finish its decent into lunacy and utterly destroying whatever you think bsv is?

No. Users are not forced to accept new versions of SW. Anyone is free to continue using the previously existing version. This nullifies any threat.

Of course, it is likely that nChain is a significant miner, which does lead to some exposure in this regard. But Craig does not hold exclusive chains of power in that organization, and others there are not suicidal. So, somewhat mitigated.

does csw know about this?

he would most likely sue them and take his own devs to court if they ignore his decisions. or split from bsv if they dont listen. just extrapolating this on observed past behavior.

anyway as you say they dont have to follow so it will be intersting as to how long bsv puts up with him.

Seems like the writing is on the wall, CSW becoming a toxic liability and the new BSv directive is to pivot and try to separate BSv from CSW, shills are out in force trying to push this. We should all support CSW in his efforts to sue Ayre for libel. BOSSv (Bitcoin Original Satoshi Super Vision) sounds better too.

Where do you get this tripe?

<snip regurgitation of scads of quotes of a single person>

Great. Yet none of the above supports your claim that "CSW becoming a toxic liability and the new BSv directive is to pivot and try to separate BSv from CSW". Nor that "shills are out in force trying to push this". Why don't we focus on your claim before diverting to an entirely different topic?

Ayre (the person who pretty much owns Faketoshi) is just a single person in BSv world?

Again - none of your Ayre quotes support the assertion that there is a pivot to 'unseat' Craig by the 'BSV powers that be'.

IOW you are completely misrepresenting the scant 'evidence' you presume to be bringing forth.

The main dude that's bankrolling the whole BSv clown show, owns CSW with all his patents etc..literally went from saying that if you think Craig is not Satoshi you're a scammer, to you shouldn't be supporting BSv because of CSW. Well, like i said "13 out of 14 kindergartners can spot a pivot (one ate his crayon), but can jbreher??" guess the answer is no to that. You're too smart to claim that you're in denial, so you must be shilling

[Gyrsur]

You aren't going to become wealthy through a salary.

You either need to own something or get your money to earn money for you.

Trading time for money won't get it done.

Learn what rich people do and replicate it.

Thank you Bitcoin.

Das ist es!

thank you, Jimbo

[JayJuanGee]

You don't like dollars?  Name your poison.  Gold?  BTC gonna go up against gold.  Light Sweet Crude?  BTC goin' up.  The price of ladyboys in Bangkok?  BTC will go up.

......
How much you paying for ladyboys these days? BTC price prefferable  

I hate to be white-knighting Millionero or any other WO peep for that matter, but I am fairly positive that Millionero was only speaking hypothetically in regards to the ladyboy matter, not from actual personal experience(s).  

Now I am getting embarrassing.

Hopefully seen as friendly banter. Just having some fun. You knew that right?.... right?

I would have thought that it would be quite difficult to have taken my response post seriously too... I mean, me white knighting Millionero..  to attempt to defend him from accusations of ladyboy activities......

Surely, for some members here, ladyboy experiences are more common than for other members. I remember one time, many years ago, there were a couple of girls making fun of me on a regular basis and they were asserting that I had been dancing with a guy and I did not know it...   I kept going back and forth in my memory to attempt to figure out which person about which they were referring, and I never did really figure it out even though it kind of bothered me for quite a long time when I would see those two girls and they would laugh and laugh and laugh at me about details that I did not even know.. and they would not say more to me because it was like an insider joke to them that gave them a lot of pleasure at my seeming expense.. and I suppose that they just wanted me to figure it out.. and I never did figure it out.... . anyhow.. this was not even in a SEA location...

[Yaplatu]

 

Source : Twitter @TheCryptoCandy

[Elwar]

If opening SMTP may risk getting blacklisted by ISPs?

Had not heard of that. I could always use gmail's SMTP server. I would assume that having an SMTP server would get blacklisted if there is a lot of spam coming from that IP.

[Gyrsur]

If opening SMTP may risk getting blacklisted by ISPs?

Had not heard of that. I could always use gmail's SMTP server. I would assume that having an SMTP server would get blacklisted if there is a lot of spam coming from that IP.

I guess he means an open SMTP server without user authentication will be IP blacklisted in very short time (that is my experience from the past too).

[Millionero]

Why it would go up please? I don't understand...

Cos it's BTC.

What do you mean? It's something that goes up with no reason? Till which level?

To 9000, obviously.

Because it would suit you? 

In two years it will go much higher than $9k.

two years seems to be a bit of a stretched out scenario...

We are looking at ATH that is quite likely within this calendar year, but could drag out to 15-20 months from here...

Most crypto discussion and analysis, or whatever you want to call it, has a horizon of months or weeks, or mere days.  That's much too short.
Let's take the long view.
Bitcoin's market follows a wavelike pattern.  Since 2012, when the first halving happened, the waves have a period of a bit less than four years -- the time between halvings.
That puts the next ATH late 2021.