Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[marcus_of_augustus]

is it too cynical to short some stocks?

We're putting everything in canned food and shotguns.

If this things R0 is near 4 as some fear, and it kills at a rate of 14% this could be a very big deal.

... best numbers/info I can gather from various sources, with uncertainties:

- R0 between 1.4 - 3.8
- lethality between 3 - 14%
- asymptomatic transmission/incubation period 9 - 14 days  (carriers could be out there spreading it for 5 days 2 weeks after catching it!!, fux)
- transmission mechanisms include bodily fluids (blood, saliva, etc) or aerosols (coughing, sneezing, farting, ejaculation, etc) contracted through respiratory or eyes, etc ... no reports of airborne yet.
- SARS-like sympoms with terminal phase having organs overwhelmed, pneumonia (drowning in lung fluids)
- officially recorded source is a bat virus jumped to snake virus jumped to humans ... bat-snake flu

[1713439325]

1713439325

[Biodom]

is it too cynical to short some stocks?

We're putting everything in canned food and shotguns.

If this things R0 is near 4 as some fear, and it kills at a rate of 14% this could be a very big deal.

... best numbers/info I can gather from various sources, with uncertainties:

- R0 between 1.4 - 3.8
- lethality between 3 - 14%
- asymptomatic transmission/incubation period 9 - 14 days  (carriers could be out there spreading it for 5 days 2 weeks after catching it!!, fux)
- transmission mechanisms include bodily fluids (blood, saliva, etc) or aerosols (coughing, sneezing, farting, ejaculation, etc) contracted through respiratory or eyes, etc ... no reports of airborne yet.
- terminal phase is organs overwhelmed, pneumonia (drowning in lung fluids)

I could opine on the last item...it's probably because of high immunogenicity of this.
We, humans, never seen these antigens, so response is so intense that people release lots of cytokines (cytokine "storm'), which then cause what you described.
They first said snakes were the origin, but now someone is saying that it looks more like it came from a bat.

[jojo69]

If it doesn't turn out to have escaped from a bioweapons development effort I will be mildly surprised.

[smartcomet]

a nice thread about bitcoin price prediction

I predict that some time in the next ten years, a single Bitcoin will exceed the price of a median single-family home in the United States. According to Zillow, that price right now is $236,900.
.
.
.
In conclusion, I see Bitcoin as the most likely candidate to back (at least in part) a new world of emerging digital currencies. Bitcoin is a censorship resistant, scarce, digitally native asset that only needs to survive while the current system crumbles around it.

[lightfoot]

is it too cynical to short some stocks?

We're putting everything in canned food and shotguns.

If this things R0 is near 4 as some fear, and it kills at a rate of 14% this could be a very big deal.

Hardly. it will probably kill old people which will finally get rid of the whole Boomer problem. :-)

Stay healthy, stay up to date on immunizations and the like and rock on. Or ignore science, pray to an ignorant god, and go from there.

[Paashaas]

If it doesn't turn out to have escaped from a bioweapons development effort I will be mildly surprised.

Wuhan has a biological level 4 (military) research facility lab. Testing deadly viruses. They fcked it up in the lab ore it was transmitted through wild animals, pollution and bad hygiene.

China arrested journalists reporting the outbreak now locking down 10+ cities, 40+m people under quarantine. Everyday more deaths and infections, casulties will go up much higher if they can't find a solution fast.

This is a race against the clock. Stay save.

Inside the Chinese lab poised to study world's most dangerous pathogens.

But worries surround the Chinese lab, too. The SARS virus has escaped from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times

[Biodom]

is it too cynical to short some stocks?

We're putting everything in canned food and shotguns.

If this things R0 is near 4 as some fear, and it kills at a rate of 14% this could be a very big deal.

Hardly. it will probably kill old people which will finally get rid of the whole Boomer problem. :-)

Stay healthy, stay up to date on immunizations and the like and rock on. Or ignore science, pray to an ignorant god, and go from there.

What immunizations? It's not a flu.

[Hueristic]

I could opine on the last item...it's probably because of high immunogenicity of this.
We, humans, never seen these antigens, so response is so intense that people release lots of cytokines (cytokine "storm'), which then cause what you described.
They first said snakes was the origin, but now someone is saying that it looks more like it came from a bat.

Welp, time to tear down the Bat houses!

[JayJuanGee]

Why it would go up please? I don't understand...

Cos it's BTC.

What do you mean? It's something that goes up with no reason? Till which level?

To 9000, obviously.

Because it would suit you? 

In two years it will go much higher than $9k.

two years seems to be a bit of a stretched out scenario...

We are looking at ATH that is quite likely within this calendar year, but could drag out to 15-20 months from here...

Most crypto discussion and analysis, or whatever you want to call it, has a horizon of months or weeks, or mere days.  That's much too short.
Let's take the long view.
Bitcoin's market follows a wavelike pattern.  Since 2012, when the first halving happened, the waves have a period of a bit less than four years -- the time between halvings.
That puts the next ATH late 2021.

I agree that many of us active WO participants are coming to similar conclusions regarding the top of the next ATH being around the ball park of late 2021....

When I was mentioning reaching the possibility of reach a new ATH by this calendar year, I was not limiting myself to the peak of the next exponential price movement but instead just referring to getting past the old ATH to supersede $19,666.

We are likely saying similar things, but you had been responding to discussions about $9k, and it seems likely within a year or two that $9k and 4 digits will not be reached again (I mean dipping back down into).... .

[Hueristic]

Wuhan has a biological level 4 (military) research facility lab. Testing deadly viruses. They fcked it up in the lab ore it was transmitted through wild animals, pollution and bad hygiene.

China arrested journalists reporting the outbreak now locking down 10+ cities, 40+m people under quarantine. Everyday more deaths and infections, casulties will go up much higher if they can't find a solution fast.

This is a race against the clock. Stay save.

Inside the Chinese lab poised to study world's most dangerous pathogens.

But worries surround the Chinese lab, too. The SARS virus has escaped from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times

China in general is not known for its QC expertise.

[lightfoot]

What immunizations? It's not a flu.

You don't want to have your body already weakened by other crap when this comes in. IE: Be as healthy as possible.

Not quite time to man the 50 caliber machine gun yet. This should be interesting to watch. Besides our government is staffed by competent scientific

minds

that

oh fuck we're doomed. Ah well.

[Biodom]

What immunizations? It's not a flu.

You don't want to have your body already weakened by other crap when this comes in. IE: Be as healthy as possible.

Not quite time to man the 50 caliber machine gun yet. This should be interesting to watch. Besides our government is staffed by competent scientific

minds

that

oh fuck we're doomed. Ah well.

A reporter today (or yesterday) was interviewing some biotech exec.
Exec: "We got the sequence on Jan 9, so we can now start working toward a vaccine".
Reporter: So, when it would be ready, then (implying that he, like, downloaded a pdf file and expecting a "curing" app any minute, lol)?
Exec: it usually takes 10 years, but with some "acceleration" with the help of the government, it could be done in 4 years.
Reporter: just sitting there in silence, basically. It was 'amusing' to see.

[lightfoot]

A reporter today (or yesterday) was interviewing some biotech exec.
Exec: "We got the sequence on Jan 9, so we can now start working toward a vaccine".
Reporter: So, when it would be ready, then (implying that he, like, downloaded a pdf file and expecting a "curing" app any minute, lol)?
Exec: it usually takes 10 years, but with some "acceleration" with the help of the government, it could be done in 4 years.
Reporter: just sitting there in silence, basically. It was 'amusing' to see.

Based on H5N1 (which is really bad) it should take about 6 months tops.

[JayJuanGee]

Even if the price is obviously not doing what we would WANT short term... I still think it is doing what we NEED for Medium/Long term.

$10K+ at around the halving is what I am talking about as the first relevant point of reference.

A too fast, too soon pump before that would be very bad with the potential of ruining the real post halving rally.

#ThisIsFine #JustHODL.

Fine by me, it’s a marathon not a sprint.

Edit - My 15,000th post, cool. Probably should have done a better post but fuck it.

Meh what is 15k posts....

JJG is going for first trillion letter in a few days ......

Sorry extreme drunk spam

Go corn go

Well, I have never seen any kind of systematic character count or letter count...

So, probably would have to have Loyce or some member like that put something together, and maybe he's not really capable of putting such a thing together.... not sure?.... , even though some of his scrapenings of data have been quite informative in a variety of surprising programing directions.

[Biodom]

A reporter today (or yesterday) was interviewing some biotech exec.
Exec: "We got the sequence on Jan 9, so we can now start working toward a vaccine".
Reporter: So, when it would be ready, then (implying that he, like, downloaded a pdf file and expecting a "curing" app any minute, lol)?
Exec: it usually takes 10 years, but with some "acceleration" with the help of the government, it could be done in 4 years.
Reporter: just sitting there in silence, basically. It was 'amusing' to see.

Based on H5N1 (which is really bad) it should take about 6 months tops.

With human trials on healthy volunteers, then testing vaccine's ability to protect?
Impossibru.

[JayJuanGee]

is it too cynical to short some stocks?

We're putting everything in canned food and shotguns.

If this things R0 is near 4 as some fear, and it kills at a rate of 14% this could be a very big deal.

Hardly. it will probably kill old people which will finally get rid of the whole Boomer problem. :-)

Stay healthy, stay up to date on immunizations and the like and rock on. Or ignore science, pray to an ignorant god, and go from there.

What immunizations? It's not a flu.

Just stop meeting with peeps in real life, and you will be o.k.

Self quarantine, for 6 to 24 months, and you should be fine.

HODL your bitcoin during such time, and just surf the interwebs.  You cannot catch Corona virus through the interwebs.

Follow my suggestions and you will thank me later. 

Looks like Armageddon has finally arrived, so pack a lil gold, too, just in case there is no currency such as fiat or such as bitcoin remaining when you come out of your bat cave, in 6-24 months, which next ones are critical,^tm by the way....

[DaRude]

you have no fear that CSWs insane mind will finish its decent into lunacy and utterly destroying whatever you think bsv is?

No. Users are not forced to accept new versions of SW. Anyone is free to continue using the previously existing version. This nullifies any threat.

Of course, it is likely that nChain is a significant miner, which does lead to some exposure in this regard. But Craig does not hold exclusive chains of power in that organization, and others there are not suicidal. So, somewhat mitigated.

does csw know about this?

he would most likely sue them and take his own devs to court if they ignore his decisions. or split from bsv if they dont listen. just extrapolating this on observed past behavior.

anyway as you say they dont have to follow so it will be intersting as to how long bsv puts up with him.

Seems like the writing is on the wall, CSW becoming a toxic liability and the new BSv directive is to pivot and try to separate BSv from CSW, shills are out in force trying to push this. We should all support CSW in his efforts to sue Ayre for libel. BOSSv (Bitcoin Original Satoshi Super Vision) sounds better too.

Where do you get this tripe?

<snip regurgitation of scads of quotes of a single person>

Great. Yet none of the above supports your claim that "CSW becoming a toxic liability and the new BSv directive is to pivot and try to separate BSv from CSW". Nor that "shills are out in force trying to push this". Why don't we focus on your claim before diverting to an entirely different topic?

Ayre (the person who pretty much owns Faketoshi) is just a single person in BSv world?

Again - none of your Ayre quotes support the assertion that there is a pivot to 'unseat' Craig by the 'BSV powers that be'.

IOW you are completely misrepresenting the scant 'evidence' you presume to be bringing forth.

The main dude that's bankrolling the whole BSv clown show, owns CSW with all his patents etc..literally went from saying that if you think Craig is not Satoshi you're a scammer, to you shouldn't be supporting BSv because of CSW. Well, like i said "13 out of 14 kindergartners can spot a pivot (one ate his crayon), but can jbreher??" guess the answer is no to that. You're too smart to claim that you're in denial, so you must be shilling

That's not a pivot. That is merely pointing out that if your focus is on Craig, rather than the protocol itself, u r doing it rong.

As I've been saying for, like, years now.

Damn bear did you go full retard, does everyone at BSv think that we're all stupid?? Ayre's whole online presence is nothing but an altar to Faketoshi

We look forward to working with Craig and others to ensure his original vision is recognized as Bitcoin and is realized through BSV

https://calvinayre.com/2019/05/21/press-releases/bitcoin-creator-craig-s-wright-satoshi-nakamoto-granted-us-copyright-registrations-for-bitcoin-white-paper-and-code/

Bitcoin SV price soars on Craig Wright’s Bitcoin copyright approval

As more court cases get settled in Wright’s favor, and the real decision makers of the world recognize what he’s built in his vision for Bitcoin, expect BSV to continue to soar.

https://calvinayre.com/2019/05/22/bitcoin/bitcoin-sv-price-soars-on-craig-wrights-bitcoin-copyright-approval/

Dr. Craig Wright brings his vision of freedom to Expo-Bitcoin International 2019
https://calvinayre.com/2019/06/27/bitcoin/dr-craig-wright-brings-his-vision-of-freedom-to-expo-bitcoin-international-2019/

hahaha...Dr Craig in full war mode for this interview.   In spite of the ranting, he is correct and supported by the majority of miners and #SatoshiVision will become the future of #Bitcoin.  

12/11/2018 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1061940780657508352

Bitcoin is poised to show the world what it can really do now that Bitcoin SV is back and solid.   this piece by Craig is only the start of what CoinGeek has planned for us and our friends like nChain.

23/11/2018 - https://twitter.com/calvinayre/status/1065959082413252608

this also makes these points|: Craig is leading this space vision wise with metanet. nChain is a powerhouse with its patents BSV is the only place this stuff is able to be used. BSV is the original bitcoin and scales.

05/01/2019 - https://twitter.com/calvinayre/status/1081652925540098048

And its nice to see Craig admit that #Bitcoin BSV was invented from the gambling industry not as as a reaction to the financial collapse of 2009.  Go Gambling! :-)

09/02/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1094198804298059776

hahaha...Craig has patents and the Trolls have shite :-)

16/02/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1096758693021003776

Craig invented real #Bitcoin #BSV...he did not invent Segwit BTC which is what he is calling a Ponzi and it is like that with its hodler culture and no utility. Are these guys really that stupid?

16/03/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1106951280918974465

Craig has proven to me beyond a doubt numerous different ways that he was the central architect of original #Bitcoin which is now only #BitcoinSV  (#BSV).  Every-person who is saying he is a fraud is in fact trying to defraud Craig and the world of this truth.

08/04/2019 - https://twitter.com/calvinayre/status/1115367685628547073

Vitalik is in essence an ICO scam lord and a Craig Troll fraudster.  He is scared because he knows Craig invented Bitcoin and will now wipe out Eth with #BSV...if this is not true why does he froth on about Craig all the time?

08/04/2019 - https://twitter.com/calvinayre/status/1115369797427056640

2 GB blocks anyone...only on Bitcoin SV, invented by Dr Craig Wright!

17/04/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1118544990311993344

here you go....recent interview I did here in London.  Craig has proven that he was right about original #Bitcoin Scaling.  Craig invented Bitcoin SV and its the best technology out there :-)

18/04/2019 - https://twitter.com/calvinayre/status/1118769079794524161

this is the real reason Binance and Roger Ver's Kraken exchange are delisting.  BSV is an existential threat to platforms that don't scale now that Craig has proven it scales.

18/04/2019 - https://twitter.com/calvinayre/status/1118838956341248001

Also...Dr Craig Wright has done nothing but good for this industry...he created it and is still the leading innovator....he has even left social media but is still being victimised there.

19/04/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1119262873073659907

Definition of a scammer is anyone trying to fool you into thinking Craig is not the most knowledgable in this industry....that sorts them out with one issue as everyone attacking Craig is involved in a Scam and Craig is only inventing technology that kills these scams...simple.

22/04/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1120386861208305664

remember you heard it here first....everyone calling Craig a Fraud will be proven to be involved in some kind of criminal activity that is threatened by his true legacy becoming common knowledge.

04/05/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1124789675145740288

hahahaha...I have nothing more to add but that everyone saying Craig is a Fraud will be found involved in criminal activity.

05/05/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1125127072559579136

correct and real #Bitcoin #BSV is the only platform that has a business model that saves mining as we know it since it scales to allow enough transactions for the fees to make up for the lost of revenues from the halving.  This was how Craig designed it.

07/05/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1125861221700395013

with evidence out there..with law suits already filed..ask yourself why are these guys doubling down on liable?  It's clearly because of the magnitude of the criminal fraud scams they are involved in. Everyone calling Craig a fraud is in fact part of a criminal Fraud themselves.

08/05/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1126108759946866688

hahaha...BSV doubled on Craig's copyright news.  This is only the start of him proving BSV is the only #Bitcoin.  Now is a great time to convert all your other shite coins to Bitcoin :-)

21/05/2019 - https://twitter.com/calvinayre/status/1130824957129306113

prove in court I mean...I will do weekly summaries of these cases every week or so on CoinGeek.  None of them has engaged as I expected...all guys trolling Craig are scammers especially including everyone he is suing.  The fraud against the father of our industry must stop.

24/05/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1131950430542544896

100% of the creativity is now happening on real #Bitcoin #BSV now that Dr Craig Wright has re-created it.

30/05/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1134195730103656449

Do not believe anything conflicted Craig deniers are saying.  Craig invented #Bitcoin and is reinventing it again as #BSV.    there is more than enough evidence out there to make this clear and the deniers all know #CraigisSatoshi, they don't want you to know.

09/07/2019 - https://twitter.com/calvinayre/status/1148560645559898112

to be fair...Craig has not turned against #Bitcoin as he invented it.  He is reinventing it as #BSV.  He is against the abomination altcoin that BTC has turned into that it still inaccurately and fraudulently using the Bitcoin name.

23/08/2019 - https://twitter.com/calvinayre/status/1164901421533282304

this is just so pathetic....#Eth just has no clue what they are doing at any level.   But they do know that they don't know how to scale and Craig does.

19/09/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1174785528056766464

Funny...Craig invents #SPV, put it in the white paper, the morons at Core did not understand it, so 10 years later he recreates  original #Bitcoin as #BSV, files a bunch of patents for it, then explains how it all works now only on BSV.  Epic stupidity.

10/10/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1182223532811587585

By the way...all the posts Bitmex made about Craig have already been proven false or will be when Craig gets his day in court in the UK.   I wonder what criminal activies they are involved with that is threatened by Craigs vision?

14/10/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1183690943993544704

look #CraigisSatoshi and #BSV is #Bitcoin and they both won already. There is no path to victory for other platforms, Craig has them all blocked.

12/11/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1194323287637217282

Craig and BSV have already won...there is NO legitimate path to any other chain being able to scale that anyone I have hear has.  They have eithor trapped themselves with bad technical decisions or Craig has patented the path.  Enjoy the BSV application wars...they be fun :-)

14/11/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1195035443714244613

Just look at nChains patent portfolio and ask yourself who could doubt #CraigisSatoshi. And its a lie to say most doubt this as all the scammers attacking Craig do it because they know he is Satoshi and this threatens their scams:

21/11/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1197464475231825921

Craig's patent portofolio make it impossible for other block chains to follow his invention of original #Bitcoin #BSV.  all critical to scaling ones are open only on BSV.  its the ONLY place you can build applications to scale.

21/11/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1197464951297839105

I had an army of specialists comb through the science, the business model and Craig and #Bitcoins history.  After this I have invested well over Euro 100 M in the original #Bitcoin #BSV ecosystem. How much research or investment have trolls like McCormach and so many others done?

30/11/2019 - https://twitter.com/calvinayre/status/1200770924074749953

yes...in 2020, Craig will take over with BSV.  He has not made public his plan yet, but he has one.

15/12/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1206175322128994307

morons...biggest winner of the year is Craig, he proved original #Bitcoin, now #BSV, is the worlds top utility platform just as he promised.

31/12/2019 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1211978363067392002

Morons all.  This is all about the tech and in that area, Craig has been all right and is kicking everyones ass.   Remember, the market price is influenced by all the intentional FUD these same morons are spreading and market manipulation by crime exchanges.

01/01/2020 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1212406037128589313

Its my opinion that one of the groups I am in discussions with had the light bulb moment and came in with $50M to get a position in the tokens before announcing their project.   However this is just my best guess.  Its not caused by Craig winning all his appeals recently.

11/01/2020 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1216090548026605568

The(y) lost the second I decided to back Craig as their road map does not compare to Craigs.

14/01/2020 - https://twitter.com/CalvinAyre/status/1217159364022325248

So after saying all that now "pointing out that if your focus is on Craig, rather than the protocol itself, u r doing it rong." is not a pivot? Will you have to pay them back and get sued if you admit that BSv is retarded? Is that why you must continue making an ass out of yourself by arguing this down to absurdity? At this stage you left with only two options: to claim that you don't know what "pivot" means or

Check and mate

[Cryptotourist]

Welp, time to tear down the Bat houses!

Cool, for a moment I thought I was the only one.

[mindrust]

@APompilano
Bitcoin Market Cap: $151 billion
Bitcoin 24 Hour Volume: $20 billion

Total Crypto Market Cap: $230 billion
Total Crypto 24 Hour Volume: $77 billion

Bitcoin dominance: 66.1%

https://twitter.com/apompliano/status/1221139731976806400?s=21

I like pomp but seeing him making a noob mistake like that makes me sad.

The volume you see on CMC is %95 fake. (tldr; %95 of the exchanges you see there are wash trading, most of them don't have any real customers at all)
https://bitcoinist.com/coinmarketcap-fake-cryptocurrency-volume/

Real 24h trading volume of btc is around 1 billion USD.

[jbreher]

I could opine on the last item...it's probably because of high immunogenicity of this.
We, humans, never seen these antigens, so response is so intense that people release lots of cytokines (cytokine "storm'), which then cause what you described.
They first said snakes was the origin, but now someone is saying that it looks more like it came from a bat.

Welp, time to tear down the Bat houses!

Can't stop here. This is Bat country!