Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[P_Shep]

Here I present to you, the flag of the sovereign nation of Bitcoin.

via Imgflip Meme Generator

https://twitter.com/jimbocoin/status/1222304372777943041?s=21

Do they have a dark theme version?

[1713262929]

1713262929

[1713262929]

1713262929

[1713262929]

1713262929

[Gyrsur]

Here I present to you, the flag of the sovereign nation of Bitcoin.

via Imgflip Meme Generator

https://twitter.com/jimbocoin/status/1222304372777943041?s=21

Do they have a dark theme version?

of course

[P_Shep]

of course

Naa, that one's making my eyes water even more.

[VB1001]

https://www.thehalvening.com/#1

[makrospex]

this level currently does have some impact on the way above because it's the 38.2% retracement from the ATH at $19666 (100%) down to 2018 AYL at $3122.3 (0%). it's the biggest picture if you zoom out and should have also the most importance.

https://i.imgur.com/uSIqyf2.png
(*) Bitstamp data timeframe 1w

As you all know, I know shit about TA. Is it good for us?

what I try to say is that it needs a lot more power to get through this level and then it will become a support afterwards hopefully.

EDIT: it is a big barrier on the way above just as the 50.0%, the 61.8% and the 78.6% level.

Fibonacci and the Golden Ratio

Exactly. That's what i was meaning earlier today, when i said i'd like to see more volume.

[JayJuanGee]

FilBTCfilBTC says down before up. Still more or less sideways.

Masterluc sez we're going down.

WRONG!

Who is this masterluc?

Is he a real character??

Or more like what happened in the past is done

He got lucky with one prediction in the past, so now he is worshiped as a kind of BTC price god.. .even though he tends to be wrong way the fuck more than he is right, but peeps who love having a BTC price sorcerer still try to find ways in which he was right, even when he wasn't..... kind of like lambie or any other sorcerer wannabe in that regard, though I am not sure whether masterluc is actually trying to be a god, people treat him like a god, which is a bit different from lambie and other wannabe sorcerers who also want to be treated as a kind of god in terms of their all knowingness.... 

Masterluc and hairy bairy are probably more similar than masterluc and lambie because most of the time, hairy bairy is not trying to act like a god, but surely no one wants his opinion to be disrespected, so even if I gravitate towards picking on the various opinions of hairy bairy (perhaps for dramatic effect), he does seem to be a lot more reliable in terms of backing up his points as compared with masterluc... so that is why hairy bairy seems to be more worshiped in these parts than masterluc.. masterluc has more forum-wide fame...  hahahahahaha...  even I concede to accept the god-like status of hairy bairy more since I might be familiarity biased in regards to the seemingly more deep analysis of hairy bairy.... #nohomo.

[xhomerx10]

Good morn Bitcoinland.
Eight four three eight yankee bucks.
(Bitcoinaverage).

Nice new avatar.
Love the Greta Thuntard pic.
Make a hat of it.

hattstrejk för bitcoin



avatar-sized

[JayJuanGee]

Trolls said bitcoin was in a bear market since Jan 2018 and the pump from 3 100 to 13 880 was fake thanks to chinese ponzi Plus Token. I say bitcoin has always been in bull market. 2018 and late 2019 "crashes" were just exhausted bulls taking a rest before the next charge. If we have another 6 months extensive bull run like in the first half  of 2019, we may go up to 30 000 around the halving (4.5x from the local bottom 6 400). If we have some corrections on the way (which is more probable), then we might be around 18 000. Worst case scenario is to go around 11K at the halving. After that it should be a matter of several months to break the ATH. Anyway, the dreams of cheap coins below 6 000 are dying for good! The bear kids were spoiled by the many stops of the train in 2018 and 2019. Now they have to jump in motion if they don't want to be left out. I am all in although I didn't take that big loan which I wrote about in my previous posts. I found it is comforting to invest all fiat savings and have a non mortgage loan possibility as a backup in case some colossal crash happens.

You make a lot of decent points, hnbdgr, but you also seem to be a bit too bullish.  Sure, the scenarios that you describe might play out, but shit, we cannot bank on $11k at the halvening to be the worst-case scenario.

There are definitely possibilities that bears, bitcoin naysayers, alt coin pumpers, financial and government institutions are able to employ resources to attempt to manipulate bitcoin's price down way below expectations for a longer period than anyone expects to be possible... so any of us who are HODLers or even new investors into bitcoin need to prepare ourselves financially and psychologically for those kinds of possibilities, even if they might be in the sub 10% arena.

I surely don't mind a bit of overleveraging towards the upside, and surely in order to become rich, sometimes we need to take advantage of resources that are at our disposal, whether that is credit or even various forms of cashflows, yet with any investment, the earlier days of establishing a decent stake that has decent odds of playing out profitably can be the most difficult time, and in bitcoin it surely seems that if you make sure that you have a 4-6 year time horizon, at minimum, you will likely be safe, even if you front load the matter a bit because of thoughts that some of our current BTC price prediction models are lining up towards decent bullish probabilities that cause UP to be much more likely than down, in current times, and that surely would be the leanings of a lot of HODLers in this thread.. and sure there may be some HODLers in this thread who are NOT really prepared for the less likely events, such as a dragging out of the four year fractal to 8 years or some other extreme (but still possible) bearish scenario.

[jbreher]

Do we really want to send them to coinbase? I understood they've been naughty in assisting agressive nutrino chainalyasis/analytic tactics.

Genuinely curious. What _exactly_ do you think they are doing to aid chainalysis? Divulging private customer data?

[JayJuanGee]

Trolls said bitcoin was in a bear market since Jan 2018 and the pump from 3 100 to 13 880 was fake thanks to chinese ponzi Plus Token. I say bitcoin has always been in bull market. 2018 and late 2019 "crashes" were just exhausted bulls taking a rest before the next charge. If we have another 6 months extensive bull run like in the first half  of 2019, we may go up to 30 000 around the halving (4.5x from the local bottom 6 400). If we have some corrections on the way (which is more probable), then we might be around 18 000. Worst case scenario is to go around 11K at the halving. After that it should be a matter of several months to break the ATH. Anyway, the dreams of cheap coins below 6 000 are dying for good! The bear kids were spoiled by the many stops of the train in 2018 and 2019. Now they have to jump in motion if they don't want to be left out. I am all in although I didn't take that big loan which I wrote about in my previous posts. I found it is comforting to invest all fiat savings and have a non mortgage loan possibility as a backup in case some colossal crash happens.

Come on...
it was bear for around 2 years since beginning of 2018. Now there are good signs of a recover back to old times but we can not still say something easily.

I would ONLY caveat that in 2018, we likely did not really realize that we were in a bear market until close to the end of 2018 - even though premature bear callers had been proclaiming bear market bear market.. blah blah blah.. but we really did not know until the end of 2018... furthermore, I would suggest that we left that bear market in about May 2019.. .or at least that seems to be the tentative framework to consider the matter.

Of course, if we were to go back down to $5,200-ish or lower in the coming 6-9 months, our description of bear market or bull market or attempting to describe overall bitcoin BTC price dynamics might need to be adjusted based on such subsequent BTC price movement dynamics.

By the way, if the presumption of the solidness of the $6,424 bottom ends up playing out as true, then it only gives greater evidence that we had confirmed to come out of that 2018-ish bear market in about May 2019 but yeah, I agree with your overall thesis, Mihaylovic, that we cannot really paint the whole damned bitcoin market as a bull market, even if technically it has played out to be true that bitcoin mostly goes up in the long term, there still remains some benefits to at least attempting to recognize the various hype cycles that bitcoin has experienced within that overall period.. whether they can be fairly characterized as four year cycles or if some better assessment might be appropriate in order to attempt to figure out where we are likely to go from here.. that also lines up with attempting to accurately characterize where we have been.

[jojo69]

you guys ready for another burn on orbit?

[fillippone]

Do we really want to send them to coinbase? I understood they've been naughty in assisting agressive nutrino chainalyasis/analytic tactics.

Genuinely curious. What _exactly_ do you think they are doing to aid chainalysis? Divulging private customer data?

First things come out of my mind:

• Doing chain analyisis on all the trades you do before funding deposit/ after funds withdrawal. Coinbase: the Neutrino scandal and the #DeleteCoinbase campaign
• In case you haven't any fund, they provide you funds to mess with (in the hope you eventually do stupid things like  consolidate them with your big stash) read: Dust Attack, what it is, why it is dangerous and how to prevent falling to it
• Selling those data to government agencies
• Inspiring other Bad actors to follow the same vicious path. Read: #deletePaxos

#deletecoinbase
#deletepaxos

[bitcoinPsycho]

you guys ready for another burn on orbit?

I'm ready

I'm also out of fiat

[JayJuanGee]

new AYH is $9430.0 (Bitstamp).

2 more days to go and then it can turn out to be a best price in January after 7 years


Bitcoin Eyes Best January Close in 7 Years After 30% Price Increase

So far so good.

But we don't want to count our chickens before they hatch, do we?

Speaking of wwwwwweeeeeeeee...

[JayJuanGee]

 Dear Last of the V8s,

 I've been trying to get xhomerx to sell our coin since $1000 to no avail but it suddenly became much easier.
Thanks so much for the idea! It worked like a charm.

 best wishes
 xhomerx10's widow

Oh my... yous gots ur lil selfies some "issues"....   

[jbreher]

Do we really want to send them to coinbase? I understood they've been naughty in assisting agressive nutrino chainalyasis/analytic tactics.

Genuinely curious. What _exactly_ do you think they are doing to aid chainalysis? Divulging private customer data?

First things come out of my mind:

Doing chain analyisis on all the trades you do before funding deposit/ after funds withdrawal. Coinbase: the Neutrino scandal and the #DeleteCoinbase campaign

Okay... from the article: "hypothetical activity". Got any evidence that they are divulging any such data?
Also from the article: "CoinBase marketing manager Christine Sandler said:
“It was important for us to migrate away from our current providers. They were selling client data to outside sources..."
So they were able to move from an external provider who they knew was selling customer data to others, and bring that function in-house, by purchasing an existing vendor if such services, who they can now control. Perhaps stopping such sale of customer data.
Yes, that's provocative. But rather than a net negative for privacy, it could be a net positive. Again, what evidence exists for your speculated nefarious activity?

In case you haven't any fund, they provide you funds to mess with (in the hope you eventually do stupid things like  consolidate them with your big stash) read: Dust Attack, what it is, why it is dangerous and how to prevent falling to it

Yes. Dust attack has been known since years. Evidence Coinbase is misusing these small bonuses? I mean, such could be perfectly explained by a simple enticement to garner new customers. Much as banks used to offer a free toaster for opening an account.

Selling those data to government agencies

Again... evidence?

Inspiring other Bad actors to follow the same vicious path. Read: #deletePaxos

'Inspiring'? OK. I guess. But not (e.g.) Binance, right?

I don't deny you have some scattered facts upon which to start to build such a case. But from what I have seen your evidence, it falls woefully short of being convincing that they are involved in any nefarious activity. Got anything more conclusive?

[Last of the V8s]

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<---- this


tyvm comrade homer

[bitebits]

The 2% tail emission on Monero is too high, meaning it is not a deflationary asset. 

If it is not deflationary, then it underperforms as a store of value.

Tail emission in May 2022, when all 18.4 million Monero are mined, is 0.6 XMR per two minute block.

(0.6 x 30 = 18 XMR/h) x 24h x 365d = 157.680 XMR / year tail emission.
(157.680 / 18.4 million) x 100 = 0.85% inflation the first year. And then declining each year which probably amounts to less then is lost in tragic boating accidents.

Gold nowadays has an inflation (flow) of about 1.6%. Even in the first year of tail emission about two times as high as Monero. Gold has proven itself over a very long period to be a reliable store of value.

Think it is rather short sighted to just say: no hard cap so no store of value. And you have to remember Bitcoin is still an experiment in the grand scheme of things. Little Monero is experimenting as well and pays a small price for a guaranteed miner incentive + flexible block size (=scaling).

I am not going to argue altcoins here, but don’t only listen to the ones yelling the loudest (that is a comment to newbies reading, not you).

[fillippone]

I don't deny you have some scattered facts upon which to start to build such a case. But from what I have seen your evidence, it falls woefully short of being convincing that they are involved in any nefarious activity. Got anything more conclusive?

This is more than enough for me to use more user/privacy respectful exchanges.
I have nothing to gain from this (well, technically, if everyone do coinjoin, also my coinjoins are more secure, but this is a little bit too indirect for the immediate reasoning), I am just advocating user security.
There are not downside not using them, only upsides: hence choice is trivial.
Want to use them anyway? I do disagree, but hey, we are all grown up adults.

[JayJuanGee]

People who have been around longer should have been or should be loaded, but many unfortunate instances happened. Now, if you were around long enough, you know better and if you have any other source of income, then you should be on your way to preparing for a brighter future. Or at the very least, whatever it is they or you are doing should produce more income than you spend on your expenses.

Not everyone learns, or they learn but can't do much about it at the moment.

You'd think someone who "earned" almost all his coins, (and alts) in these forums would be loaded, but it's those people who bought them (or mined them) and HODL who have anything today, because they didn't need to cash it out, spend it or do anything with it.

They're the ones who would be ok even if bitcoin never existed, because they'd most probably be invested in something else that produces great returns compounded over long periods of time.

Seems to me that you are referring to a few important principles that any investor into bitcoin needs to keep in mind, and fuck any ideas about investing into altcoins because those are largely just gambling, unless you happen to play them based on short term information.. but still risky as fuck overall compared with bitcoin.

So the principles that you seem to be suggesting in regards to bitcoin would be 1) don't invest any more than you can afford to lose, 2) live within your means and 3) attempt to build your BTC portfolio over time - without trying to rush it with too many risky practices.

Regarding getting these kinds of returns with any other investment, I don't really buy that.. and again, did I say fuck alt coins?  You cannot be thinking that including altcoins in your strategies is a sound approach, unless they are very damned small portion of your overall holdings.. less than 10%, but I will give the more risk loving up to 20% if you are really monitoring them and playing short term rather than long term with that crap. In other words, what I am trying to say here is that bitcoin has provided risk to reward opportunities that are way the fuck greater and asymmetric than any other bet that could have been made in the 90s and early 2000s... Yeah, sure in retrospect we can see some investments that played out well such as apple and amazon and some others, but those investments into stocks/companies remains a different animal than bitcoin because bitcoin is a paradigm shifting phenomenon that bring regular peeps way the fuck more flexibility and way the fuck more up side potential as long as they exercise prudence with solid and ongoing BTC accumulation strategies that do not attempt to gamble too much with over-leveraging.. so in that regard, you can get rich as fuck with bitcoin (even still by starting out now) and you don't even have to leverage or front load (even though there might be some strategic advantages to some amount of leveraging and front loading if you play the matter with some attempted prudence).