Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I need BTC to go to US$ 75000 in 15 years.
Will it go that high ?

Strange statement.  Probably you need to explain yourself a little better.

All kinds of shit can happen in 15 years, so if you are focused only on one thing, you got ur lil selfie some troubles... such as aspergers.

There are no guarantees in this baby BTC world.

Have you been looking at the various BTC price prediction models?  Have you been figuring out your finances for a variety of scenarios?

if you know anything about BTC, and you are getting into it now, then you better have a plan for if it does go to $75k and also a lot of other variants, including if it doesn't.

Now that you say that... Just barely related but...

Need is a very complex word. Which includes lots of levels of "need". Even REAL need has different levels of intensity and urgency.

What I mean is... And I think you may be able to answer it.... WHAT IS NEED, JJG?

Actually, you got me there.

I think that need is a statement that is conditional upon something else, so if we do not know what is the something else, then the statement of "need" might come off as vague or an exaggeration..

Without stating the condition, we could not really know what the speaker means by "need," except to speculate about what was meant by the condition.  

As examples:

1) Since I am not a bot, I need air in order to live.

Or,

2) I need to make another $1,000 before the end of the month, otherwise I am getting evicted.

Or,

3) in order to make "fuck you" status, in accounting for my other assets, anticipated income and anticipated expenses, I need to attain the value of a sustainable amount of between $1.5 million and $2 million in my bitcoin holdings.

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[bitserve]

Actually, you got me there.

I think that need is a statement that is conditional upon something else, so if we do not know what is the something else, then the statement of "need" might come off as vague or an exaggeration..

Without stating the condition, we could not really know what the speaker means by "need," except to speculate about what was meant by the condition.  For example, since I am not a bot, I need air in order to live.

Yeah, I do agree. And even if you need air to live it doesn't have the same level of intensity/urgency of need if you have just taken a full breath or if you have been deprived for more than a minute already. See what I mean?

To be honest I expected a more detailed answer from you. Considering how you are able to philosophy about pure technical matters I thought you would excel philosophying about a more philosophy thing.

It's all good, I don't even know why I launched the question... Oh yes, I was going to say that need is a bitch. And even minor degrees of need not only suck but... and this is the point I really wanted to make: CAN SEVERELY HAMPER YOUR HODLING ABILITIES.

So... seeing both "need" and "15 years" in the same sentence... is some kind of an oxymoron to me.


P.S.: On the other hand, "need" can sometimes even make for a stronger hodler. As in: "I don't have as much as a I "need", so I will keep hodling."

So "need" is not only a bitch... but a double faced bitch!

[JayJuanGee]

Actually, you got me there.

I think that need is a statement that is conditional upon something else, so if we do not know what is the something else, then the statement of "need" might come off as vague or an exaggeration..

Without stating the condition, we could not really know what the speaker means by "need," except to speculate about what was meant by the condition.  For example, since I am not a bot, I need air in order to live.

Yeah, I do agree. And even if you need air to live it doesn't have the same level of intensity/urgency of need if you have just taken a full breath or if you have been deprived for more than a minute already. See what I mean?

I parsed out two more examples in my earlier post because I could see that there was some lackings, even in the condition that I created.. which might get us too much into the philosophical weeds.. rather than the general point.. which is that better specifics help us to understand why there is a need from the perspective of the earlier poster...

If the poster just says that s/he needs x, then we hardly even know what the fuck s/he is talking about, even if we also might feel that we need x, too.. or maybe we just "want" x.. and don't really need it.

To be honest I expected a more detailed answer from you.

I cannot be demanded to make a more detailed answer. I make a more detailed answer only when I believe that no one else wants it.  In other words, my more detailed answer is ONLY for me. 

In other words, I am a self-ish bastard, figuratively.

Considering how you are able to philosophy about pure technical matters I thought you would excel philosophying about a more philosophy thing.

It should be more bitcoin related, no?  If we come up with some bitcoin related needs, then I might be up for it.  For example:

I: I "need" x amount of bitcoin for hooker a, b and c

II:  I "need" y amount  of bitcoin for lambo d, e and f

III:  I need z amount of bitcoin for blow quantities m, n and o

It's all good, I don't even know why I launched the question...

because you are harassing me (aka trolling me)

Oh yes, I was going to say that need is a bitch.

I already mentioned the bitches in roman numeral I, above.

And even minor degrees of need not only suck but... and this is the point I really wanted to make: CAN SEVERELY HAMPER YOUR HODLING ABILITIES.

Probably money does not buy happiness, but it is sure nice if you do not have to worry about doing certain kinds of work, but it seems that if you hire someone to do it, then you have other problems... takes a while to gain trust, even if you have someone to help you out... because sometimes they will end up coming into your space.. so then you need BIGGER space for them to NOT cross into your space.. but then you draw attention to yourself for how much space and nice things that you have, so then you feel like you cannot have so many nice things because you might get robbed, or $5 wrench attacked.

So, the balance is tough, and probably just have to be happy with what you got.. even the managing of how much to pay person 1, 2, or 3, but then if person 3 is helping you with your finances, then they know too much?  Maybe it is more helpful to get rich when you are younger, and then you have more time to adapt to not adding too many things too quickly?   Start out with a personal assistant? Maybe I don't really need a personal assistant?

[JayJuanGee]

I made a new post to respond just to the last few sentences that you added on the end of your last post, bitserve...

So... seeing both "need" and "15 years" in the same sentence... is some kind of an oxymoron to me.

Seems that we can make various plans for 15 years from now, but so many things can happen in 15 years that we are just setting ourselves up for failure if we try to plan too specifically about it.  Maybe that was the point that I was trying to make, ineloquent as it might have been.

P.S.: On the other hand, "need" can sometimes even make for a stronger hodler. As in: "I don't have as much as a I "need", so I will keep hodling."

Hey.. now you are getting kind of into one of my areas of interest, which is the "need" to overprepare to some extent, especially if you are keeping part of your value in bitcoin and you don't plan to cash out all of your bitcoin but instead merely to diversify (or reallocate) some of it.

You are old enough to know, bitserve (even though I don't know your exact age, I have some ideas), about your own budget.  You have practiced your budget for a while, and you have a pretty good idea about how much you need in order to continue to live your current standard of living.  So, you can calculate a 4% withdrawal rate based on that in order to know if your 4% withdrawal rate is going to support you with that current standard of living.  Of course, you can ramp it up a little bit, too... perhaps... but if you don't have enough of a cushion there, then you are NOT quite ready, yet, to pull the "fuck you" trigger.

So "need" is not only a bitch... but a double faced bitch.

Well, I will agree that you do not want to pull the "fuck you" trigger too early, but you also should not be waiting too long, either.  Who wants to be working when they are not really physically able or when they are ready to move on to another stage in life.  Of course, each of us have probably come across examples of people who were forced to work too many years in their lives, but then I also think of some people who really cannot stop working anyhow, even if they have the means to do other stuff.  They seem to NOT be able to really help themselves in terms of wanting to stay active, busy and involved in certain kinds of activities that seem to be for a person of a younger age. 

Sometimes if you look further under the hood, you will find that they have plenty of money, but they still have too many insecurities to spend that money.. they feel that they need a cushion.. which surely might be true, and really we cannot second guess the balancing that other people do, we can only attempt to best particularize our own measurement of when to pull the "fuck you" lever based on believing that we have enough and also to have plans within that fuck you status to be able to adjust the withdrawal rate, if needed to make the available funds a kind of perpetual motion machine.. based on our chosen struck balance of the income that we need and being able to continue to live within the means that we have chosen. 

If we chose too early, or if our income from the saved funds does not really seem high enough, then yeah, maybe we will have to go without some new things.. instead of buying a new iphone and computer every 2-3 years, we have to let it ride for 4-5 years (just for example), or maybe we go on two trips per year, rather than 4 trips per year? 

Of course, there are going to be some uncertainties in fuck you status, too.. because we might have speculated that we could get rid of some obligations, but then some of the obligations seem to take nearly as long as when we had a JOB... what the fuck?  So, maybe in the end, I don't know, either... just gotta attempt to do our best in making the various measurements and having some flexibility and cushion in there... without allowing the perfect to become the enemy of the good.

[bitserve]

Wise words and I mostly agree with everything you said. Enough of thread hijack I guess.

Let's just fucking moon (ie: $50K-$100K) sometime during the next 5 years and just fuck all this philosophy about "need"... It won't probably be that easy though.

As The Dude would say: Going to HODLsleep now

[jojo69]

(called layering? i forget. theres a term when avoiding hitting the 10k limit, like 9700, 8500 etc). so i do 10k on the dot chunks.

"structuring" is the term, words are important in this context, like the difference between evading and avoiding...

[jojo69]

"Governments don't understand it. That's just how Satoshi planned it... Satoshi Nakamoto a real life superhero." - The Gift of Satoshi

https://twitter.com/bitcoin/status/1222916411971948545?s=21

^video 

somebody beat you in with this one dude

[JayJuanGee]

Wise words and I mostly agree with everything you said. Enough of thread hijack I guess.

Let's just fucking moon (ie: $50K-$100K) sometime during the next 5 years and just fuck all this philosophy about "need"... It won't probably be that easy though.

As The Dude would say: Going to HODLsleep now

I think philosophy that is kind of based on how much we expect the BTC price to go up.. or if it does not is pretty damned relevant to this thread, and it surely would seem that $50k to $100k is doable within the next 5 years... even though we know that we have to prepare for worser case scenarios.. such as flat for five years or even worse, but Up seems slightly greater odds than flat or down.. especially if we are in the 5-ish years ballpark of expectations...

With bitcoin, one thing is how much up, and another thing is what is the sustainability aspect... so the down after up portion of it.

By the way, I seem to be kind of repeating myself (what else is new?), but I am thinking that our odds for the bottom of $6,425 bottom being in might even be getting above 50/50...

Remember we had a $3,124 bottom, and then people were worried about sub-$5k.. which also seems to becoming less and less likely that we are going to see sub $5k.. ... and gosh-golly.. maybe $6,425 is looking greater likelihoods of being in...

I know, I know, I know, we were just at $7,175 at new years, so that is only 30 days ago.

It would NOT be outrageous to go back to $7,175 and retest it, but even that $7,175 does not have to be retested in order to be able to go up...   We do not have to have down before UP... we could have Up before down... or up before more up.... . (not counting staying above $9k as being significantly enough to be labelled as "down" in my own chosen definition of what is "down").

I do believe that it would be quite unlikely to break through $10k and to stay above $10k without getting some down.. so there is that, too.

[Biodom]

my bank has no issues with coinbase. yes i use coinbase, since 2013. never had any issues at all. the amounts ive moved have surely caught the banks attention as any individual transfers over 10,000 USD get flagged. and i dont try to hide them (called layering? i forget. theres a term when avoiding hitting the 10k limit, like 9700, 8500 etc). so i do 10k on the dot chunks.

I never paid any attention to this.
If i needed 8k, that's what i withdrew; when needed 2k, withdrew that.
When I wanted a bigger chunk (a bit above 10k), then I did it too.
I can recall once being asked about it (by the bank) and since that withdrawal was for either mortgage or car, that was, indeed, my answer, not surprisingly.

Now, if we hit a serious value for btc like 100-200K/btc, then, I am afraid, even those who have a single digit corn for cashing out would have some 'splaining to do. In fact, regular checking is not even equipped to handle large cash loads inasmuch as FDIC insurance in US only covers first $250K. Investment banks might be a better destination, but don't take this as an advice. I have no idea if this is true (never tried).

[Paashaas]

- Over 3000 new suspected cases of coronavirus in China; 9821 in total, 25,060 cases.

- Death toll grows from 132 to 213.

- Russia and North-Korea closing borders with China.

- First 2 cases confirmed in Italy, Germany confirms 5th case.

- 6,000 quarantined aboard Italian cruise ship.

- Virus arrives in the Philippines.

- Airliners suspending flights to/from mainland China.

- WHO declares global pandemic.

- China reported largest one-day jump in fatalities.

- South Korea and U.S confirms first human-to-human transmission.

[HairyMaclairy]

I need BTC to go to US$ 75000 in 15 years.
Will it go that high ?

Yes

[d_eddie]

Not going to waste my last sM on legends or quasi-legends, but at least some WOsM is due. Here's a helping of noteworthy posts, in no particular order. A complement to JSRAW's work for people catching up, and a tip of the hat to Toxic.

Man, I cant end this post cleverly.

You do that a lot when posting in humor - but this time you aren't.
+1

edit https://twitter.com/JackMallers/status/1222941238279708674?s=20

One of the reasons to check the WO at least once in a while - V8's findings... (This is one of the most bullish among recent posts IMO.) (Did I mention nice outfit BTW?)
+1

There's a thread listing the banks that hate Bitcoin the most. Fortunately there's still a few in it that will do business with bitcoiners.

List of Bitcoin Hostile (and friendly) Banks

... or other nuggets of practical, useful info.
+1

WOW...The dude is getting wise beyond his years... for some strange reason...

The dude abides, the dude got his moments.... seawaves and sea smells tingling the nostrils only better writing can follow

30y in the rearview mirror and dudes turn into poets, even. With some help from a few cervezinhas maybe.
+1

What I mean is... And I think you may be able to answer it.... WHAT IS NEED, JJG?

1) Since I am not a bot, I need air in order to live.

2) I need to make another $1,000 before the end of the month, otherwise I am getting evicted.

3) in order to make "fuck you" status, in accounting for my other assets, anticipated income and anticipated expenses, I need to attain the value of a sustainable amount of between $1.5 million and $2 million in my bitcoin holdings.

Bitserve tries to unleash the wordy monster, but the bot breathes air and keeps it reasonable.

To be honest I expected a more detailed answer from you.

I: I "need" x amount of bitcoin for hooker a, b and c

II:  I "need" y amount  of bitcoin for lambo d, e and f

III:  I need z amount of bitcoin for blow quantities m, n and o

-snip-

you are harassing me (aka trolling me)

Probably money does not buy happiness, but it is sure nice if you do not have to worry about doing certain kinds of work, but it seems that if you hire someone to do it, then you have other problems... takes a while to gain trust, even if you have someone to help you out... because sometimes they will end up coming into your space.. so then you need BIGGER space for them to NOT cross into your space.. but then you draw attention to yourself for how much space and nice things that you have, so then you feel like you cannot have so many nice things because you might get robbed, or $5 wrench attacked.

So, the balance is tough, and probably just have to be happy with what you got.. even the managing of how much to pay person 1, 2, or 3, but then if person 3 is helping you with your finances, then they know too much?  Maybe it is more helpful to get rich when you are younger, and then you have more time to adapt to not adding too many things too quickly?   Start out with a personal assistant? Maybe I don't really need a personal assistant?

He tries again. The ensuing reply is deservedly longer and makes a lot of sense. Personal space, things, wealth, services - be it housekeeping, security, or stress release.

+1 for the trolling @bitserve
+1 for the sense @JJG

[marcus_of_augustus]

14 day incubation period?

... next 2 weeks are critical.

[Biodom]

- Over 3000 new suspected cases of coronavirus in China; 9821 in total, 25,060 cases.

- Death toll grows from 132 to 213.

- Russia and North-Korea closing borders with China.

- First 2 cases confirmed in Italy, Germany confirms 5th case.

- 6,000 quarantined aboard Italian cruise ship.

- Virus arrives in the Philippines.

- Airliners suspending flights to/from mainland China.

- WHO declares global pandemic.

- China reported largest one-day jump in fatalities.

- South Korea and U.S confirms first human-to-human transmission.

Below prior predicted trend, but not by much.
Still....

edit https://twitter.com/JackMallers/status/1222941238279708674?s=20

One of the reasons to check the WO at least once in a while - V8's findings... (This is one of the most bullish among recent posts IMO.) (Did I mention nice outfit BTW?)
+1

Didn't get that.
The article talks to me like I am a child.
Where is bitcoin there, exactly?
AFAIU, Strike has a LN node, you simply deposit cash from your bank account or debit card into Strike (as a prepay?), strike then "takes" your cash, 'virtually' exchanges it for btc in their "channels", use their channels to pay your LN invoice, debits your cash. They interact with btc, you don't (for payment). Is it a "good thing"? I dunno. Maybe I misunderstood their setup, but what exactly the following means?

Bank accounts and debit cards can now speak to nodes all over the world, and nodes all over the world can now speak to bank accounts and debit cards.

[jojo69]

Below prior predicted trend, but not by much.
Still....

China is massively under reporting, their culture has divergent normative mores around truth telling.

[JSRAW]

[fillippone]

Ehi!
One of us fellow WOer has just been interviewed!

https://twitter.com/staciewaleyko/status/1222940338442113024?s=12

“This is called “Ogliarcy!O...G...L...I...C...H...Ogligarcy!...Something like that!”

Bitcoin fixes that, by the way.

https://twitter.com/staciewaleyko/status/1222940338442113024?s=12

 

[VB1001]

Good morning and good luck to all WO friends in the UK, it will be interesting to read your comments in the coming days.

[Ibian]

Well, talked to the bank today about "selling the house for bitcoin", or to be more precise to take out a second mortgage, restructure my debts and "get some liquidity" as they put it. Good talk, and it's all settled. I'll be paying a llittle less each month, will have a substantial amount to invest in btc put in my account, and will also have a fixed interest rate for 20 years. Good times.

Of course they asked about what I wanted to the with "the liquidity", so i said I was looking to have some cash ready for when this whole cardhouse comes tumbling down, and invest in btc. That was a good enough explanation for them.

Nice bank. Crazy system. 1.7%.

My bank kicked me out simply for having bitcoins. They demanded information about whatever transactions I make. Obviously I told them to fuck off, and that was that.

Had I gone along with it, they would eventually have pushed for more. Access to monitor my wallets, maybe eventually direct access to them or demanding that they hold them in custody. Be careful.

They didn't kick you "simply for having" Bitcoins, which is surely not their fucking business.

You were using *THEIR* (lol) bank account to run something similar to an unlicensed money exchange business... without even being a business. And continued doing so after they warned you.

You were lucky they didn't report you lol

"Banking" FIAT (and even cash in some instances) has strict rules on what you can and what you can't do. If you are gonna use, at least try to not mix it with REAL MONEY or they will get angry and suspicious about you.

Yes and no. I did some private trading with other individuals. Which, as you say, is none of their fucking business. All transactions having to do with them was to and from Kraken, which is perfectly legal. And they never actually gave me a reason for why I was kicked. All I have to go by is their actions.

[jbreher]

Do we really want to send them to coinbase? I understood they've been naughty in assisting agressive nutrino chainalyasis/analytic tactics.

Genuinely curious. What _exactly_ do you think they are doing to aid chainalysis? Divulging private customer data?

I'm not accusing them of anything illegal however since Coinbase acquired Neutrino, now they have the largest on ramp and customer base with chainalysis rolled together. Not only is it a honeypot for leaks, its recreating the same privacy invasive, centralized practices familiar in today's banking. While understanding the merits of such, I prefer to support smaller privacy focused on ramps in efforts to avoid ultimately enslaving the population with an 'all seeing' Gov. Bitcoin.
To answer your question directly, Coinbase is consolidating power to break and prevent privacy in Bitcoin.  #deletecoinbase

So you have no proof that they are using such data to nefarious ends? That's certainly what it appears you are saying.

Your closing statement is topologically identical to 'Google/Amazon/Facebook is consolidating power to break and prevent privacy in all aspects of life'. Which could be a true statement, but I bet there is not one in a hundred persons reading this that does not deal with at least one of those organizations from time to time.

You' are correct, no proofs from me. I'm unable to afford the luxury or patience to await proof so I must rely on intuition, experience and history (Sometimes referred to as logic) If that condemns me to your special snowflake pile, oh well, I guess I'll have to live with that

Nope: here's my reply to P_Shep wherein I used that specific terminology:

So, no offense taken, and no defense presented. Unless you consider trying to nail down wishy-washy accusations to concrete statements of facts as 'defense'. In which case, I'll just put you in the 'special snowflake' pile. Which would make me sad. I've not previously thought of you as such.

Things had gotten out of hand, with my genuine curiosity being presented as it was some sort of defense of nefarious actors - essentially accusing me of malfeasance. My use of the term was a perhaps-too-dramatic way to point out that I did nothing of the sort. Unless I missed it, P_Shep has not responded. Which I take as a sign that s/he realizes the characterization was unfair. Tacitly admitting such, no special pile for P_Shep either.

As a society we've already given our private lives to Facebook, our data to Google and our shopping habits to Amazon.  I'm guilty but unprepared to drive the final nail into the coffin relinquishing our financial privacy simply because I was duped into the previous.
 I'm not sure what point you'd like to make with your closing statement. Are you saying that since we've already given some of our information to these corps, giving the rest shouldn't be a problem? Perhaps until proven otherwise?   

I guess I was just saying that everything comes with some sort of tradeoffs. On the net -- what with no proof of malfeasance on Coinbase's part -- they're still the exchange that I feel best about dealing with. Even more so since the only alternative given in response to my suggestion of others to look into hit a brick wall of data collection right off the bat.