Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

Rick and I are heading to Cabo for a few days.
Expecting $10k BTC/USD by the time we return.

Just returned to a dreary, rainy Dallas. That BTC price tho !

Good thing you missed the Dallas Renegades game, it wasn't pretty.

[1713559331]

1713559331

[1713559331]

1713559331

[1713559331]

1713559331

[1713559331]

1713559331

[1713559331]

1713559331

[jojo69]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSnAUHTyksY

fucking hell


time to short

[JayJuanGee]

naah

10K Tuesday or Wednesday

Yep, around Feb 12th, if this channel holds up:

Jupiter9?  Is that you?

Nope. If i were him, i'd be like:
Beware! "2020/02/20"...important date, the prophet of blah had his first ejaculation on a 20th feb. too, the prove is, it's written in the stars of the electric universe.

Or similar...

Try harder


EDIT: Good night at $9.794 #thisissomehint

Are you going to be an asshole in this inkarnation as well?

I try not to, really.
Being sarcastic doesn't make me an asshole.
It would make me an asshole if i intended to hurt someone, though, but that's never my intention.

Just to be clear.

Texting lacks communication of emotions, in contrast to speaking. That's one of the main causes for fuzz on the interweb.
One just can't be sure to "read" his communication partner's intentions. The error rate is around 80%.

That's just saying that you and you alone decides when you are an asshole.
You can say anything, write anything, and do anything.
As long as you claim that you did not intend to hurt anyone, it's ok. Other peoples feelings are irrelevant.

Now you're either projecting OR you are on the 80% side of communication.

Woke up to $10.061 today. Coffee tasted much better, somehow 

I must admit that I do find it a bit entertaining to see you guys going back and forth on this topic, but really, OutOfMemory, you are being too nice to be engaging with the emotions of Arriemoller... but whatever, do what you want... there could be some entertainment value in the back and forth for some folks...   

[JayJuanGee]

And Welcome Back bones261!

Just to let everyone know. I am doing great. Sorry to worry some people. I'm just for all intensive purposes a nocoiner now. I'll try to check in more often. We shall see.

Sometimes, in life, the priorities are what force us to make certain decisions, that's how it is, there is no more.

It is really difficult to say, for sure, or even to lecture someone else for taking a zero position in regards to bitcoin.

It is almost as if you have no spare income whatsoever.. or no view of the future or no ability to save.

So, maybe if you don't have any savings and only debt, then it would be better to get your debt paid off first and to establish yourself an ability to save... and if you have absolutely not enough money to put away that you can afford to not think about, then maybe you cannot be in bitcoin.. even if that is a mere $20 per month... or some low level like that.

There are usually ways that even really poor people are able to stack some investments away, and maybe the only exception would be if a person believes that he is not going to live more than a few years, so really in a liquidation phase of his life and liquidating most if not all assets.

You sound like a lucky man who can always save no matter what.

Having a family, childcare costs, travel to work costs, feeding them all is not as easy as you imply. You are frequently making choices what to sacrifice for the greater good.  It isn't the kids childhoods they need to be put first.

Of course there are going to be times in which cashflows are more pressed than other times, but if you project your cashflow ahead, then you can adjust for the UPs and the DOWNs in your cashflow along the way.  My starting out income was really small for many years, but I always still saved and invested, and i did so in very conservative ways throughout my life... of course, my income has increased too through the years and that is NO small part to the savings and investments all along that gives more options and more abilities to do more things and to consume more things.

Every person is going to employ a different method for projecting their cashflow.  When I was just leaving home and I was first on my own, I only needed to project 3 to 6 months in advance because my life was NOT very complicated and I could keep even less than a $300 cushion in my cashflow and still feel like that gave me enough flexibility, but as my economic obligations became more complicated and I employed a variety of different tools, including employment of debt/credit and got involved in businesses that had uncertain cashflows, I generally felt more comfortable projecting my cashflow quite a bit further in advance, such as 18-24 months in advance and projecting with a $1,500 or more cushion.

Of course, if I always tried to have a cash cushion in my cashflow, and the more uncertainties the more cushion, I would also have different kinds of expenses that would be projected and different kinds of income, and of course there are uncertainties with any of those that are going to vary with people, and sometimes I would have to draw from various kinds of pools of money (investments or savings) in order to make sure that I maintained whatever was my cashflow cushion, but as the years went by, my investment pools became larger and larger and more diverse, so it would become easier to figure out which pool to draw money and how to balance or how to prevent from even having to move money around.

I was always choosing which investment (pools) were the first ones on the list to draw from in the event of emergencies.  

When you project your cashflow ahead, you can see cashflow shortages coming way the fuck before they become an emergency, and maybe the first line of defense would be to change spending or to move the payment of certain bills or to spread things out or just NOT to invest as much for several months until the cashflow seemed to be back to a more normalized state, or sometimes money would need to be moved around with calculations based on which funds were the best ones to use based on fees or interest rates or opportunity costs towards adjusting for seeming emergencies that were seeming to come up... and of course, living within your means is one of the best ways to have a lot of different cash funds and options too.. including not buying new things all the time and not going on 4 vacations a year.  

There are a variety of ways to make sure that you have money to invest, that you have your cashflow projected in advance, that you make sure that you have a cushion that is appropriate to your circumstances.. including really poor people.... but if you are staying poor for a really long time without improvement to the funds that you have available and you are not making various kinds of investments and savings, then that might be a sign that you are NOT doing things right and you need to tweak your systems in order that you get your cashflow in order.

TLDR: Sure, there might be some luck involved with managing cashflow and being able to invest and save on mostly an ongoing basis, but there is also a lot of preparation and ongoing management of income and expenses and making sure that you are living well within your means in order that you have money left over for investing and you are NOT investing beyond your abilities to keep emergency funds and a sufficient cash cushion for your situation.

[eddie13]

I respect your theory of dollar cost averaging and "investing" over time and all that stuff and would say that is quite a safe strategy, but your style/theory doesn't apply to everyone..

Trading is also NOT a way to accumulate BTC or wealth.
trading should not be a means to accumulate BTC
Trading is also NOT a way to accumulate BTC or wealth.
trading should not be a means to accumulate BTC
you should not be planning on building your BTC wealth based on trading

This is a good thing to tell newbs but I don't consider it true for me at all..
I have only ever bought $100 worth of BTC in my life!!! In 12/2017 at the same time I sold about .8 BTC for $$.. Thinking about buying some back..
I have NOT "bought in" to BTC/Crypto EVER.. Ever ever..

In 2014 I got 0.01BTC for FREE from a friend sent to my Cryptsy account.. That's all.. Just 0.01BTC worth around $5..
Between then and the time Cryptsy crashed I traded that 0.01 BTC into over 2 BTC.. Trading ONLY.. Thousands of trades bro.. I wish that never would have ended..
I sold a decent chunk of that for car parts like an idiot @ <$500/BTC.. So stupid..

Traded Polo mainly for a while after that.. Handle there was "SatSnatcher".. Scalping satoshis.. Always scalping satoshis..
Went into arbing altcoin exchanges for a while.. Made meager profits..
Then I made some nice profits TRADING XCP assets, lol..
Think I did about 400% gain on what I put into Huobi...

Dude I have probably LOST on 2,000+ trades easy across many many exchanges, but won more that I lost with a good risk/reward ratio..

99% of ALL crypto I have ever owned has ALL been made trading exchanges.. ALL OF IT!! I've never bought anything..

I got into crypto TO TRADE.. I didn't know shit about crypto, didn't know shit about trading either, but I wanted to try trading, and I fell in love with Bitcoin..

You don't have to believe me but I'm telling you that that is the god's honest truth..

Check the date of this post I made..

I started with .01 BTC and made over 14,000% profit my first season (winter) trading.. Thousands of trades..

One of my first few posts on Bitcointalk..
And when I said that I meant that I increased my BTC stash by 14,000%, not $$ or anything else..
I have always only traded to increase my BTC stash no matter what, no mater what that meant in $..

 
You can say all you want that "Trading is NOT a way to accumulate BTC" but that just is not correct 100% of the time..
Trading has been MY way of accumulating BTC and I am proof otherwise..

I have never made much of shit lending here or with signatures or anything.. Anything I have made on Bitcointalk is very insignificant.. I haven't been paid for a signature here in YEARS..

"Investing" $20 a week into BTC seems silly to me WHEN I SHOULD BE TRADING..

I am not very risk-adverse..
I have been poor, I have been homeless in a shelter, I have been to jail, I have lost everything, I've been there..
I look back on it now as a fun and adventurous time of my life.. It taught me that I can do almost anything.. I can bicycle through a city in a blizzard.. I can hike miles.. I'm confident that I could be dropped off in any city in America with absolutely nothing and figure out how to make it work..
I can hardly believe what all I can do if I just decide to do it.. I can come back from anything..

I have also worked some of the most demanding jobs imaginable.. I can go work 100 hours a week across the country if I want to, on remote well locations, and bank.. I've worked in the Detroit ghetto where few dare to go, and you eat lunch at bulletproof Taco Bells that have obviously been shot up a time or 2, shots all still in the glass.. I'm not scared to do it again if I need to, but I don't like to spend my life that way..
Just another excellent adventure, but it gets unpleasant after a while..

That is a good thing that you are able to live without a lot of expenses, and likely means that it should be easier to reach your goal.

I am a very self-reliant person.. What most people spend money on I do myself..
I can work on/fix almost F'n anything.. I'm a bit of a collector of tools..
I also don't waste my money buying trash..
I only like to buy things that last forever, are useful, and hold value, as much as possible.. I like classic/vintage stuff over modern junk anyway so it works well..

ideology should not be your central motivator

Some things are more important than money..

As far as Debt..
I have plenty of assets other than Bitcoin that could easy be sold to pay off all of my debt..
I could sell less than half my cars alone and be debt free.. I don't owe a cent on my property and it is worth many times what my "debts" are, or cars..
I could go work like a slave for a couple months and pay it..
No big deal..

[d_eddie]

I don't get why people still follow someone like masterluc who is not willing to post his analysis here for constructive criticism. The shine has worn off that particular penny IMO. That being said I expect any correction to stop at the weekly 20 MA. Let's see who is correct. Do I get a hat if I win?

I for one often report about masterluc here. He was the first analyst to impress me with his long term prediction. I agree he's lost his edge, but I also think there's little damage to hear his more recent short term calls - even if they're off more often than not.

And I think you could get a hat even without winning, if you want it.

[JayJuanGee]

It is really difficult to say, for sure, or even to lecture someone else for taking a zero position in regards to bitcoin.

It is almost as if you have no spare income whatsoever.. or no view of the future or no ability to save.

So, maybe if you don't have any savings and only debt, then it would be better to get your debt paid off first and to establish yourself an ability to save... and if you have absolutely not enough money to put away that you can afford to not think about, then maybe you cannot be in bitcoin.. even if that is a mere $20 per month... or some low level like that.

There are usually ways that even really poor people are able to stack some investments away, and maybe the only exception would be if a person believes that he is not going to live more than a few years, so really in a liquidation phase of his life and liquidating most if not all assets.

You are absolutely right. My financial acumen is very low. In fact it is an absolute train wreck.   However, the only way that I can reasonable participate in the BTC economy is to earn it. I'll have to participate in a signature campaign, probably. I could resort to using my desktop to mine shitcoins. But that usually resorts in losses or very small returns, especially since my GPU is only a 1070.

I remember you had similar circumstances in 2015-ish.... so it's not like there is anything that I can say that is likely to influence you in any kind of way... I mean, you have been around the forum, and fairly active in the forum, except for the last couple of months or so...

Of course, we are writing in a public thread, so we are not engaged in some kind of private and personal conversation, and surely readers of this thread are not necessarily going to understand your particulars - not that I really claim to know them either.

Actually, I give very similar suggestions to everyone who seems interested in bitcoin and that is just to establish some kind of stake in bitcoin and to continue to just do what you can to get a stake, but certainly any person has to both want to get into bitcoin and to have his/her finances in sufficient order.. and surely having finances in order is one of the more important parts. 

The other relatively BIG category of person that I run into that talks about bitcoin that seems to justify NOT getting into bitcoin is that the person who is largely just liquidating assets and not really seeming to be interested in investing for the future... which seems to suggest that s/he already has sufficient cashflow from whatever investments that s/he had made over the year and just is living off of the income from that and drawing down whatever principle remains in those investments.

[Lambie Slayer]

Then..................................

"There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Never!"

"My feelings, as usual, we will slaughter them all."

"Our initial assessment is that they will all die."

"No I am not scared and neither should you be!"

"We will welcome them with bullets and shoes."

"They're not even [within] 100 miles [of Baghdad]. They are not in any place. They hold no place in Iraq.

"They fled. The American louts fled. Indeed, concerning the fighting waged by the heroes of the Arab Socialist Baath Party yesterday, one amazing thing really is the cowardice of the American soldiers. we had not anticipated this."

"God will roast their stomachs in hell at the hands of Iraqis."

"They tried to bring a small number of tanks and personnel carriers in through al-Durah but they were surrounded and most of their infidels had their throats cut."

"I can say, and I am responsible for what I am saying, that they have started to commit suicide under the walls of Baghdad. We will encourage them to commit more suicides quickly."


Now.........................

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[Gyrsur]

  Bitstamp AYH    10,199.85 USD  


EDIT: adjusted to the correct Bitstamp AYH (source: Bitstamp)

{"high": "10199.85000000", "last": "10093.40", "timestamp": "1581306819", "bid": "10084.94", "vwap": "10106.19", "volume": "4525.11553999", "low": "9999.21000000", "ask": "10093.38", "open": 10173.51}

[marcus_of_augustus]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12307276

... airborne confirmed in MSM, because they never run fake news  

[JayJuanGee]

The oracle has spoken btw, masterluc says $6k is incoming.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ME0DngUr-Short-term-analysis-ending-diagonal/

Tldr; If it goes to $11k, this prediction becomes invalid. If not, $6k.
*If this happens I am going all-in.

Masterluc can go take a flying fuck...

Sure $6k is possible..

just like $1.5k was possible in late 2018/early 2019.... but it did not happen.

[Gyrsur]

adjusted levels because of the new AYH.

[Lambie Slayer]

Pro tip for free: at some point in a bull run BTC price will touch the weekly 20 MA. Use that as a low risk entry. Takes patience, just put in your buy order and adjust.

Thank you   So this would be around ~ $9K right ?

More like $8.2-8.4k right now but it will probably get closer to 9k later on if it keeps going up without a correction.



*Btw, it never touched 20 WMA when it started going up from $3.8k to $14k so it might not be as valid as BitcoinNewsMagazine thinks. LFC's idea is probably a better one. Buy while you still can.

Sure it did early in the last bull run. If you want to be assured of getting filled just adjust your buy price up a few percent above the weekly 20 MA. Later in a bull run you need to use oversold indicators.

Why are our lines different than each other though? Did you mean 20 WMA or 200 WMA or something else?, kinda confused. Sorry, small screen, now i see

The oracle has spoken btw, masterluc says $6k is incoming.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ME0DngUr-Short-term-analysis-ending-diagonal/

Tldr; If it goes to $11k, this prediction becomes invalid. If not, $6k.
*If this happens I am going all-in.

Aids-Flu guarantees we never reach Bargain prices such as 6k again. 11k in less than a week imo.

[JayJuanGee]

Don't get mad at Luc.

He doesn't say it is going go to $6k without any conditions.

He says it will happen if it stays under $11k which is a pretty valid guess imo. I'll buy more tomorrow to help to invalidate this TA. If you want the same thing, you should too.

This thing won't go to $100k by itself, somebody has to buy it from $10k and $20k... $60k... and all the way up to $100k. Believe it or not, Some will even buy it at $100k.

This time BTC is going to $350-$450k so LOTS of peeps are going to jump in at $100k and further up. 

Bruh, I think 350-450k might be a bit ambitious for this cycle. That kind of price will come in 2025 or something a year after the 2024 halving.

Just my opinion but obviously would love you to be right.

Nice hypothetical LFC.

What you going to do, if serveria ends up being correct, and you sold most of your coins below $150k?

Hey, I know that I am giving you some shit because you said that you are ONLY selling half, but is that how it is going to go down, and are you going to be content with yourself if BTC prices 2-4x beyond your most bullish of expectations? 

Are you financially and psychologically prepared for such a possibility, I mean if you sell 1/2 of your BTC at somewhere in the $100k (even sub $100k territory?)? 

Of course, we should be prepared for the outrageous scenarios, including that the top might only get to $65k, and even I am quite skeptical of anything beyond $200k for this cycle, but I surely will have enough bitcoin if such a thing were to happen. 

I am planning to skim off BTC all the way up whether it stops at $15k, or $35k, or $65k or $600k or whatever, and even I have some trouble appreciating what I am going to do with all of the cash that is going to be generated from my skimming off sales, so I don't feel any need to sell higher quantities (percentages of my portfolio) of BTC in order to have more than enough cash from any possible bullrun that might happen.

[fillippone]

Be ready for hordes of nocoiners flooding the gates of Bitcointalk.org when halving and ATH come.

What's the best defence against a nocoiner: burning oil, flaming arrows, a good ol' pitchfork?

(I know some nancy-boy will respond with knowledge and fine argument!)

Dragonstone.

[JayJuanGee]

Don't get mad at Luc.

He doesn't say it is going go to $6k without any conditions.

He says it will happen if it stays under $11k which is a pretty valid guess imo. I'll buy more tomorrow to help to invalidate this TA. If you want the same thing, you should too.

This thing won't go to $100k by itself, somebody has to buy it from $10k and $20k... $60k... and all the way up to $100k. Believe it or not, Some will even buy it at $100k.

This time BTC is going to $350-$450k so LOTS of peeps are going to jump in at $100k and further up. 

Bruh, I think 350-450k might be a bit ambitious for this cycle. That kind of price will come in 2025 or something a year after the 2024 halving.

Just my opinion but obviously would love you to be right.

That is not a prediction actually, that's pure maths (if the growth rate stays the same). 

John?  Is that you?

Didn't McAfee say the same stupid thing? 

In late 2017, McAfee said that it is pure math that bitcoin is going to 1/2 $million by end of 2020 - then a few weeks later, he upped his prediction price to $1million, and then in the end of 2019, while maths did not seem to be going his way, he retracted his whole statement and suggested that he was engaging in hyperbole that no one should have taken seriously.

[JayJuanGee]

I got my $3k number by extrapolating....
....
333,333.333333

hodl for 300k

I predicted a low of $3k about a year and a half ago and the next high around $300k..

The $3k low prediction held up pretty well and I'm no less confident in the 300k prediction since then, with about the same seriousness that I was saying "BTC to $10k" in 2014-2015..

I think $100k would be quite a conservative prediction for the peak after this next halving..

Many of the extrapolation results of 2017's bubble top were between about $40k and$50k iirc.?
Just for comparison, if you know or remember better, please let me know.

Huh?

The vast majority of peeps were predicting between about $3k and $7k for 2017.  Of course, there were guys like adam predicting $32k, and there were some $10k folks, but these super bullish predictions were not really the norm.  There were a lot of bearish predictions too.. like we already reached the top... blah blah blah..

Yeah, in retrospect, 2017 might seem all clear, but largely the BTC price move in 2017 went about 3x to 5x beyond expectations....

Now, after reaching $19,666, did people expect 2-3 years to get back to $19,666... I don't think so... Many folks were considering resuming another top, like what happened in 2013.. two tops... but yeah, in retrospect, we see that double top performance did not happen.

[Paashaas]

You need more than 800 corpses that's for sure..

edit: these numbers comes close to the Tencent leak.





https://twitter.com/inteldotwav/status/1226267582740811777

Anything burning fuel produces SO2, including my truck.  

In a quarantined city where no one is working...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- The number of coronavirus cases worldwide has reached 40,000, death toll surpasses 900.

- 10 new cases in Hong Kong, 3 new cases in Singapore; 6 patients in critical condition.

- Spain reports country's 2nd case of coronavirus on Mallorca.

- First wave of Chinese businesses going bankrupt.

- KFC worker is diagnosed with coronavirus as company shuts thousands of restaurants in China.

- WHO Director-General warns "we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg".

- Exiled Chinese billionaire says true death toll closer to 50k, 1.5 million infected.

[realr0ach]

Amazon censors book titled “A History of Central Banking and the Enslavement of Mankind”:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/technology/amazon-bookstore-nazis.html

[bkbirge]

Still early days...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/vaneck-report-illustrates-why-institutions-should-hold-bitcoin

An in-depth comparison of the features of the United States dollar, gold and Bitcoin contained in the report also suggests that Bitcoin has more of the features that are desirable from an asset that serves as money than gold itself.