Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

In other news -
 6000 bitcoin on the shelf for 7 years after being seized by the Criminal Assets Bureau -

Full story - https://www.rte.ie/news/courts/2020/0219/1116299-bit-coin-clifton-collins/

So it turns out the guy 'lost' the keys in a fishing rod accident for the 6000 BTC
Hahah, never heard that one before. LOL, Stick it to the man!   Priceless, I like this dood already.
Marijuana grower loses keys to 6000 BTC

What did I say earlier?  dood makes sure witnesses see and know it was in the fishing rod, which then gets stolen and lost. Paper can be backed up elsewhere too (it's not a backup if there is only 1 copy.) or buried.

In any case, it was all acquired in 2012, so it's a few years before the crime was committed, and should not have been seized.

Ireland and UK have draconian proceeds of crime laws - trespassing into unfair. I don't remember what this dude's really guilty of, but that money predates his crimes. I agree the guvmint shouldn't be able to seize it. I hope he does have a few backups scattered here and there. In that case it's bitcoin 1 - guvmint 0.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Nothing bad.

Crucial Indicator: Bitcoin’s Parabolic Bull Run to $50,000+ Will Begin Very Shortly

Historically you really wanted to be long by the time the weekly Ichimoku showed a thin red cloud and price reached that moment in time

Image 1 = Oct '12 & May '16 thin red clouds visualized

Image 2 = 2020

This year will cement the foundation for the next parabolic run

Twitter: https://twitter.com/BTC_JackSparrow/status/1230744065177636865

PlanB (100TrillionUSD), a pseudonymous quantitative analyst, revealed a revolutionary Bitcoin price model proving such price points as entirely feasible for BTC to reach in the coming years.

The model appears to model the bubbles ánd bear markets fairly well. It confirms a certain inertia of price reaction, so a lag ánd overshoot. Model would predict: Price will catch up with S2F ratio a year after the halving. And overshoot by ~ 2x. (3/3)  h/t Tom!

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Geertjancap/status/1217552995065442307

Some have been even more optimistic, saying that $50,000 may only be the start of an even greater move.

Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/02/21/crucial-indicator-bitcoin-parabolic-bull-run-50000-begins-2020/

[HairyMaclairy]

Can you get stock elsewhere?

Not as good as my Chinese supplier, no. There’s a factory in France but it’s more expensive, we’ve been using them regrettably.
How long do you think there will be restrictions on shipping stuff from China?

Some of the smaller Ali Express guys are posting now but my main one is down & doesn’t know when they’ll be allowed to resume.

Luckily we have other streams of income but this is stopping me earning a lot of money.

No one knows. But the general sense is that it will get worse before it gets better.  The Chinese quite clearly do not have transmissibility under control and we are now getting reports out of the Middle East of a break out there.  

I think WHO is going to be forced to declare a global pandemic within the next week.  

https://theloadstar.com/container-shipping-ex-china-grinding-to-a-halt-carriers-cant-carry-on-much-longer/

There is some good news

The Australian Department of Health estimates the case fatality rate in China — the percentage of people diagnosed who end up dying from it — is 2.9 per cent.

However, the Department said the case fatality rate outside China was 0.7 per cent.

That's less than SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome).

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-01/coronavirus-update-how-to-protect-yourself-from-outbreak/11918302?pfmredir=sm

[Dabs]

Imagine you have a few hundred step siblings all from the same father.

Meet World record holder Ziona Chana. 94 Children , 39 wives, 14 daughter in law, 33 grand children and counting....

That's probably the record for naturally fathered children. I'm talking about some fertility doctors that fathered 600 children, none of the mothers were his wives. He simply used his own sperm on all those "clients".

[kurious]

Can you get stock elsewhere?

Not as good as my Chinese supplier, no. There’s a factory in France but it’s more expensive, we’ve been using them regrettably.
How long do you think there will be restrictions on shipping stuff from China?

Some of the smaller Ali Express guys are posting now but my main one is down & doesn’t know when they’ll be allowed to resume.

Luckily we have other streams of income but this is stopping me earning a lot of money.

No one knows. But the general sense is that it will get worse before it gets better.  The Chinese quite clearly do not have transmissibility under control and we are now getting reports out of the Middle East of a break out there.  

I think WHO is going to be forced to declare a global pandemic within the next week.  

https://theloadstar.com/container-shipping-ex-china-grinding-to-a-halt-carriers-cant-carry-on-much-longer/

There is some good news

The Australian Department of Health estimates the case fatality rate in China — the percentage of people diagnosed who end up dying from it — is 2.9 per cent.

However, the Department said the case fatality rate outside China was 0.7 per cent.

That's less than SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome).

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-01/coronavirus-update-how-to-protect-yourself-from-outbreak/11918302?pfmredir=sm

The difference in rates might be explained by early sufferers getting the best treatment the developed world can offer.  Adding a few hundred more per hospital and you might see the death rate per diagnosis change for the worse and head at least toward, if not matching the Chinese rates.

EDIT: Not to have a pop at some level headed optimism, Hairy - jus' postulatin'

[JL0]

Norwegian Air to Accept Payment in Crypto
They're working with the Norwegian Block Exchange (NBX).
Source : https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/news/norwegian-air-to-accept-payment-in-crypto-hopefully-from-spring/

[STT]

If you can’t feed them, don’t breed them.

Its dangerous to go down that road where people are not individuals but both owned and assets of the state to be taken of no matter what.    They have had programs of forced termination in China especially, it doesn't create any idyllic situation because thats a hellish action to take imo.   They did all that and they still have the problems every state has so I'd rather take that lesson and not go that route.
   People are an asset to a country, just the amount of growth possible during a persons life time outstrips every other investment.   China has a falling working population, they do have great challenges ahead because they so drastically cut population growth previously it will now be uneven and weighted towards pension age far more then other countries I think.   Japan has that problem but also alot of wealth previously made where as China has still alot of development required.



I think the price drifts for a couple days, possibly upwards.

[Elwar]

- China is shutting down internet in Wuhan.

From an old China hand:

Don’t listen to what the Chinese government says, but pay close attention to what the Chinese government does

This suggests that the situation is very bad and getting worse. Maybe an uprising starting.  


*edit* can we please get a source for the shutdown.  I am having trouble independently confirming this. 

It’s starting to really piss me off now.

We haven’t had any stock delivered for about 6 weeks now (includes the time they had off for Chinese New Year).

This.

My suppliers are telling me the factories are all shut down and they will get back to me when they can get back to work. Last contact was last week.

[LUCKMCFLY]

It is an option, everything can happen.

1/ During the last two #Bitcoin  bull cycles, price bottoms and tops fluctuated around halving dates in an almost equal ratio. If this relationship were to hold true, we still have more than 570 days of bull market ahead of us, with a cycle top coming in around Sep 2021.

Source: https://twitter.com/CryptoKea/status/1230925037026381826

[kurious]

The only surprise is 'September' - I was expecting a couple of months later.

EDIT: and I still am

[HairyMaclairy]

The difference in rates might be explained by early sufferers getting the best treatment the developed world can offer.  Adding a few hundred more per hospital and you might see the death rate per diagnosis change for the worse and head at least toward, if not matching the Chinese rates.

EDIT: Not to have a pop at some level headed optimism, Hairy - jus' postulatin'

That’s a good point.  Another confounding factor is that healthcare in most of the West is free.  In China you generally have to pay for healthcare.  There are heartbreaking stories of pregnant women dying after their medical support was stopped because their extended families ran out of money after spending $50k on ICU support.

We should expect fatality rates to be higher in the USA than Canada for example. 

[dragonvslinux]

[Hueristic]

A friend calling me with questions about “decentralized finance” someone knows about it ?
Dharma.io is a thing in it ..... ??  

Bitcoin is the decentralized finance he is looking for.

The one on Eth is vaporware.

Show him this:
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/56207/bzx-attacked-again-645k-in-eth-estimated-to-be-lost

He always do like to listen to Ivon on Tech .... and they where talking about "decentralized finance"

He was a bit impressed and wondering what it exactly was and if its worth any time...

It is as impressive as the promises from 2015/2016 that Smart Contracts would be used in everything and replace normal contracts. Where are they being used? Token generation. Anything else?  Decentralized finance is the new buzzword for nonsense.

I don't think any of these guys know in 1994 Nick Szabo thought up smart contracts and it wasn't something vitalik came up with.

One day I expect ETH will burn when all the lies become evident to those that didn't DYOR.

[lightfoot]

It's the weekend, Bitcoin is under 10k, I'm going to start drinking with my gal....

[bkbirge]

Haha! I love those old pulp covers.

[kurious]

The difference in rates might be explained by early sufferers getting the best treatment the developed world can offer.  Adding a few hundred more per hospital and you might see the death rate per diagnosis change for the worse and head at least toward, if not matching the Chinese rates.

EDIT: Not to have a pop at some level headed optimism, Hairy - jus' postulatin'

That’s a good point.  Another confounding factor is that healthcare in most of the West is free.  In China you generally have to pay for healthcare.  There are heartbreaking stories of pregnant women dying after their medical support was stopped because their extended families ran out of money after spending $50k on ICU support.

We should expect fatality rates to be higher in the USA than Canada for example. 

Yup... I do wonder what will happen if hospitals are swamped in the USA. What will the CDC and the healthcare system do, prioritise the paid up and insured? I suppose there is a 'gov't steps in' plan?  I honestly don't know enough to comment.  I guess money will be thrown in centrally, they will probably approach it as they would a war. 

[Hueristic]

If not, he has said he will return my bet stake ... with interest

If not, we will make him go missing!

I’m going to do a runner with the 0.012 BTC

I see you've been playing the long Con.

Can I request for a pic of a young nude female, walking on her hands on top of Mt. Everest?

Thank you in advance.

Here you go.

[Last of the V8s]

oh nanny!

[lightfoot]

Haha! I love those old pulp covers.

I know. But it takes a special kind of girl to chug a 5 gallon bottle of wine single-handed.

You marry that.

[d_eddie]

The wine shop on Hell's Street is rumored not to be the best source though.