Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[FTWbitcoinFTW]

gmaxwell talking some sense about the speculation that gox still has a lot of coins that are going around Reddit.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1z3v4k/claims_that_mtgox_has_a_lot_of_coin_so_far_look/

he just wants to get your goxcoins cheap.

No way to prove Gox controls the coins...

No way, either, to prove the veracity of this MtGox Situation: Crisis Strategy Draft

1-1, let's grap some :popcorn:

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[MelMan2002]

Great time to be lending BTC on bitfinex - it is sitting at an incredible 0.35% daily right now!  That is around 127% APR - compounded daily which would make it an effective annual rate of over 255%!!  Why are more people not lending BTC over there??

[pjviitas]

I'm enjoying this hypothetical forking question  

This is certainly not the point in time where a fork were to be actually considered but there might come a day where this becomes the case.
In a sense this is the ultimate strength of the system and the reason why cryptocurrencies are here to stay.
No regulation or external influence can stop a new spawn from emerging

I agree to a point but a fork like this would split the community to the point the miners decided and they would do it for money, therefore in that sense its just as bad as the old system to even consider this. A fork would only ever be considered for a change in the protocol not to restore lost coins.

Hey here is a novel idea...instead of forking bitcoin.  Why not just use one of the other 100 cryptocurrencies out there?

[derpinheimer]

I'm enjoying this hypothetical forking question  

This is certainly not the point in time where a fork were to be actually considered but there might come a day where this becomes the case.
In a sense this is the ultimate strength of the system and the reason why cryptocurrencies are here to stay.
No regulation or external influence can stop a new spawn from emerging

I agree to a point but a fork like this would split the community to the point the miners decided and they would do it for money, therefore in that sense its just as bad as the old system to even consider this. A fork would only ever be considered for a change in the protocol not to restore lost coins.

Hey here is a novel idea...instead of forking bitcoin.  Why not just use one of the other 100 cryptocurrencies out there?

Because.... that doesnt recover anything? 

[Spaceman_Spiff]

It's becoming more and more clear that the coins haven't been stolen, they've just lost the keys lol. Once this is confirmed, should be very bullish.

I don't think that the loss of those coins, per se, would have any effect.  

Think of the exchanges as water tanks where water represents bitcoins in the market, and the water level is the inverse price (how many BTC one can buy with one dollar).

The tanks are connected by pipes at the bottom (coin withdrawals and deposits) so the hydrostatic principle (arbitrage) keeps the water level about the same in all tanks. If one pours more water into any tank (brings more coins to the market) the level in all tanks goes up (meaning the price goes down).  The opposite happens if one takes water out of one tank (buys coins and puts them in cold storage).

If the MtGOX theft did happen, then at some point in the past, someone siphoned most of the water out of the MtGOX tank to a private barrel.  I the keys were lost, most of the water in that tank leaked out and was permanetly lost.  In either case, Mark put some bricks into the tank (hid the theft) so that people would not notice the loss, and the water level was not affected.   Then a few days ago the pipes out of that tank  were closed (withdrawals were blocked),  and the tank was disconnected and removed it from the system.   That would not affect the water level in the other tanks either.

If the theft happened, and the thief then dumped the water in other tanks (sold the coins in other markets), then there was indeed a net rise in the water level (a fall in market price); but that is past history.  

We may expect an effect only if the coins were stolen but have not been not sold yet EDIT: and are sold now.

(This analogy is imperfect because it does not model the money flows, but hopefully it is enough to argue the point.)

I disagree.  I think the flaw in your system is that it doesn't incorporate the people.  Maybe the tank with the fake goxcoins was cut off from the system (the bitcoin economy), but the people who thought they had bitcoins @ gox were not.  They still have capital in other parts of the general economy, and if they truly believe in bitcoin, they might want to rebalance the percentage of bitcoins in their capital.

Apart from this, some speculators might use the monetary base as a guideline to determine whether bitcoin is overpriced or not in their thinking.  

Another psychological effect of course might be that people (regardless of whether they had coins at gox or not) perceive bitcoin as a risky thing in which you are bound to get screwed over, and they abandon it.

[kurious]

Personally I had coins at Gox - the last few I withdrew were returned to me before the door shut.

Ok - it now looks certain they're gone.  

Logic dictates I either sell the rest and get out, or reinvest to replace them.  

I think the growing fiat pile we can see is just like me; tentatively waiting for signs Gox really is 'over' and it will get in as soon as we don't look like going sub-500 again.

I am not going to wait until things kick off.  I bought half my lost Gox coins back today and have fiat waiting at slightly lower levels for now, just in case.  Within the next few days I will gradually restore all my lost coins with new fiat.

I assume many others will do the same - the upside is way bigger than the down.

In reckon the new fiat is hungry, but i s understandably wary and wants a little taste before it goes into a real feeding frenzy...

Then we will see the train once again.....



BTW: Fork?  Nah... no way.  

[MelMan2002]

Great time to be lending BTC on bitfinex - it is sitting at an incredible 0.35% daily right now!  That is around 127% APR - compounded daily which would make it an effective annual rate of over 255%!!  Why are more people not lending BTC over there??

The same reason we didn't store bitcoins at Gox.

I'm sorry but Bitfinex hasn't shown the incompetence that Gox has.

[empowering]

yeah..

fork right off.

[derpinheimer]

Great time to be lending BTC on bitfinex - it is sitting at an incredible 0.35% daily right now!  That is around 127% APR - compounded daily which would make it an effective annual rate of over 255%!!  Why are more people not lending BTC over there??

The same reason we didn't store bitcoins at Gox.

How big of a threat are wallet stealers? Curious. I keep almost all my coins on exchanges, because i'm paranoid about them.

[MAbtc]

Great time to be lending BTC on bitfinex - it is sitting at an incredible 0.35% daily right now!  That is around 127% APR - compounded daily which would make it an effective annual rate of over 255%!!  Why are more people not lending BTC over there??

The same reason we didn't store bitcoins at Gox.

How big of a threat are wallet stealers? Curious. I keep almost all my coins on exchanges, because i'm paranoid about them.

Unless you are trading 100% of your coins regularly, why don't you keep a portion cold?

[derpinheimer]

Great time to be lending BTC on bitfinex - it is sitting at an incredible 0.35% daily right now!  That is around 127% APR - compounded daily which would make it an effective annual rate of over 255%!!  Why are more people not lending BTC over there??

The same reason we didn't store bitcoins at Gox.

How big of a threat are wallet stealers? Curious. I keep almost all my coins on exchanges, because i'm paranoid about them.

Unless you are trading 100% of your coins regularly, why don't you keep a portion cold?

I will lose anything physical. Almost guaranteed. I have to replace my flash drives monthly because I always lose them...

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Great time to be lending BTC on bitfinex - it is sitting at an incredible 0.35% daily right now!  That is around 127% APR - compounded daily which would make it an effective annual rate of over 255%!!  Why are more people not lending BTC over there??

The same reason we didn't store bitcoins at Gox.

How big of a threat are wallet stealers? Curious. I keep almost all my coins on exchanges, because i'm paranoid about them.

I think your risk judgement is off.  If you have enough capital in btc, put some effort into a good cold wallet system.

[proudhon]

Great time to be lending BTC on bitfinex - it is sitting at an incredible 0.35% daily right now!  That is around 127% APR - compounded daily which would make it an effective annual rate of over 255%!!  Why are more people not lending BTC over there??

The same reason we didn't store bitcoins at Gox.

No kidding.  Jesus fucking christ people!  For fucks sake.  I just don't even...

[EuroTrash]

Great time to be lending BTC on bitfinex - it is sitting at an incredible 0.35% daily right now!  That is around 127% APR - compounded daily which would make it an effective annual rate of over 255%!!  Why are more people not lending BTC over there??

The same reason we didn't store bitcoins at Gox.

How big of a threat are wallet stealers? Curious. I keep almost all my coins on exchanges, because i'm paranoid about them.

Unless you are trading 100% of your coins regularly, why don't you keep a portion cold?

I will lose anything physical. Almost guaranteed. I have to replace my flash drives monthly because I always lose them...

Make two encrypted copies of everything and leave one copy with trusted people who live far away.

[MAbtc]

Unless you are trading 100% of your coins regularly, why don't you keep a portion cold?

I will lose anything physical. Almost guaranteed. I have to replace my flash drives monthly because I always lose them...

I keep back-ups encrypted and locked in safes in the homes of two family members. It may sound ridiculous, but it is so easy to do in practice. Why not?

[kkaspar]

I was wondering if you would say that...so in a year, or two a currency that does not even exist yet, is going to be created, launched, mined, gain popularity and out-trade Bitcoin in the next 52 to 104 weeks, a coin that literally does not exist now..  interesting thought...

What will it do that will make it able to grow this fast and this well that any coins cannot do at present? and even if it is a great coin, can you explain how you think it will grow the network in such a rapid time?

Remember how fast bitcoin did it. And with less attention to the entire subject. Bitcoin has paved the way and now people take the entire idea more seriously.

[zyk]

Yep, bitcoin has gotten obsolete as the head of the chaain-letter just got cut off...you´ll see

[delphic]

Unless you are trading 100% of your coins regularly, why don't you keep a portion cold?

I will lose anything physical. Almost guaranteed. I have to replace my flash drives monthly because I always lose them...

I keep back-ups encrypted and locked in safes in the homes of two family members. It may sound ridiculous, but it is so easy to do in practice. Why not?

Make sure you share at least 51% of your DNA with them.   

[cbutters]

which way is it gonna go on the breakout? We will know soon.....