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Question: What happens first:
$65,000 - 59 (86.8%)
$48,000 - 9 (13.2%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26336895 times)
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LFC_Bitcoin
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May 10, 2020, 05:20:07 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), bkbirge (1), VB1001 (1)

We haven’t reached panic state yet. Hold your buys for a bit (or ladder prudent).

I buy every week & have done for years. I’m going to buy tomorrow regardless of the price.

1BTC = 1BTC
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May 10, 2020, 05:39:25 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Don't believe this has anything to do with weak hands. This is pure manipulation. They need to be able to downplay and smudge BTC in the MSM tomorrow, in order to prevent the general public from buying BTC in masses which would skyrocket the price and undermine conventional currency.
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May 10, 2020, 05:51:44 PM

I am going to post something quite unpopular.  It will make some people mad at me.  This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now.  I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.  

The US has dun goofed its coronavirus response.  The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast.  With the exception of New York, case rates are still rising in every state.  Nebraska, which reopened on Monday, reported a 57% case rate rise in the past 7 days.  In saying this I acknowledge that testing levels are so low it is hard to work out what is really happening except we know there are superclusters at the meatworks which are not closing because they have been deemed essential.  

We have extremely bad economic data.  On some readings, the data is worse than the Great Depression.  This puts the political leadership at both State and Federal level under enormous pressure to reopen.  So I can understand why they are doing it, particularly given there is not the appetite for the social welfare schemes which have been rolled out in other countries to support workers staying in their jobs.

But know this.  By half-arsing the lockdown and pulling out too early, and then triggering a crushing second wave in late summer / early fall, the economy will get refucked.  The number one mistake is thinking that fighting the virus and supporting the economy are mutually opposed aims.  They aren't.  Crush the virus and you can have a thriving economy back.  Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy.  Because when your hospitals overflow and your doctors are all dying and there are bodies in the street, there will not be a functioning economy.  Reopening now, before adequate testing and tracing is available, and while case loads are still rising, is an act of surrender.  

The consequences are not going to flow immediately.  Things are going to feel just fine through the next couple of months of summer.  It will be warm out.  People will say that the warm weather killed the virus.  Everyone will be outdoors, drinking beer and having a nice time.  Food and bev will start to do a roaring trade again.  People will think we are winning.  There will be cluster outbreaks which will be blamed on poor management by the Governors.  Some regional hospitals will be overwhelmed, but they will be a long way away.  

But come late summer or early fall, shit is going to start to become visibly bad.  We know the second wave of the Spanish Flu killed far more than the first wave.  195,000 Americans died of the Spanish Flu in the month of October 1918.  There are 328 million people in the US.  The Lancet estimates the Case Fatality Rate of coronavirus at 1.38%.  Australia's actual Case Fatality Rate is 1.33%, which is one of the lowest CFRs in the world, reflecting a world class health care which is not under stress and massive testing, increasing the size of the denominator.  If half of the US population catches coronavirus, and the CFR is optimistically 1.33%, then that is 4.3 million deaths across America.  If the hospitals collapse, the death toll has the potential to get much higher.  

I think the reality is we will not get there, and there will be a series of smaller state level, or town level lockdowns.  This rolling wave of small lockdowns will fuck the economy good and will spark open conflict between the White House and State / local government.  

What does this mean for Bitcoin?  I believe that Bitcoin is still predominantly driven by US retail demand.  I also believe that there is at least a 50/50 chance that the US economy will be fucked good between now and November.  The confounding factor is that the halvening will reduce supply by 50%.  Normally I would regard this as a sure thing, but it needs to be balanced against a possibly very sick US economy.  Further complicating matters, just about every other developed country in the world has managed to figure out how to beat the virus and will be back on the path to recovery behind locked borders.  People in those countries will be able to buy Bitcoin.  

My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020.  Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage).    So be defensive and don't hold open long positions past the halvening.  

Good luck and stay safe.  

A. Sweden disagrees
B. The actual fatality rate among infected is somewhere between 0,36 and 0,2 according to the latest studies in Europe.

Not this again...
Most of these fatalities stay one or two weeks in a hospital, take up quite some resources like ventilators and have to be quarantined in ICUs.
Do you grasp the gravitiy of this?

You are an idiot.
We are doing this right now, right here.
We have doubled our number of ICU beds in less than a month, and we are not using them all, not even close.
Is that so hard for you to grasp?
Or do you just like to be locked up buy your government? you are Austrian after all, you guys love hard disciplin, so history shows us.

Just compare the infection charts of Austria and see who's doing it wrong, in respect to the fact we were a main european covid hub in february. It's even not over yet, and Hairy already pointed out that numbers aren't to be easily compared because of different base variables (number of testings). At least i'm clever enough for an idiot to understand this  Grin

EDIT: The rest of your "argument" is just nonsense based on prejudice.

You don't seem to understand that we don't want a low infection rate, we want a slow infection rate.
We accept the virus as part of our reality, we don't lock anybody up, all businesses are open as usual, distancing is practiced, but it is a recommendation, not a law, no cop will arrest you if you hug anyone.
And I really, really, prefer it this way.

See, that's perfectly understandable, plausible and objective wording here.
You don't get your point through by calling a discussion participant an idiot.

Let's settle with "controlled infection rate", because this is what most nation's leaders want. Some try to achieve it this way, some try other ways, but the health systems, economy, culture of every country is different, that's why i favour the regional, instead of the national control approach. Lockdown is an emergency measure of China, it acted as a role model, and it did match the chinese culture (anti-freedom, so to speak). The rest of the world was caught naked, there were no pandemic plans, but everybody knew that the days when these plans would be needed would come. And here they are. China stuck to the SARS strategy of combating an epidemic virus outbreak.
This is imho the main factor of failure, not being prepared. There are some more black swan events waiting which we are not prepared for, like the global power blackout and such. We will react to these events unprepared, and this will always cause more damage than the events themselves would. It's a complex system we're dealing with, so you can't just say: this is good..., this is bad... but only: this will likely have these effects... and so on.
Whatever "we" decide to do, it's wrong - in some way - as well as right - in some way. It's a point of perspective.
There's much more to this, but i'd need "JJG superpowers of texting" to express all this in a meaningful way, i guess Cheesy
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May 10, 2020, 06:01:10 PM



Well i was cleaning up the studio a little today to make room for this thing which fedex delivers today:




Behringer tended to sound quite sterile, at least with their processing equipment.
How does this half-modular thingy actually sound to you? I didn't even know they built something like this, last news i had was that virtual analog keyboard synth, which might be aged about 10 years now. Please lemme know about your hands-on experience with this orange mystery box  Cool
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May 10, 2020, 06:15:57 PM

I truly feel sorry for those thinking with Bitcoin they hodl a penny stock. Bitcoin's future is so bright you need to wear sunglasses, and still most can't see it. Too bad.
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May 10, 2020, 06:18:20 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1)

I'm not sure why I have to keep bringing this up for every "crisis" but...if you people that hate freedom would quit using every crisis as an excuse to institute even more tyranny (like you did with the last crisis) then those of us who love freedom wouldn't be fighting you on this.

You could say "hey gang, this virus is bad...we should all socially distance" and we'd be like..."that sounds reasonable, we can do that temporarily then get back on with things as they were before". The crisis would pass, things would go back to normal.


But instead it's "hey dissenters, stay at home or we'll arrest you...also we need to institute a new normal where drones are flying around monitoring everyone and we're spending $1 trillion a week while deciding who can work and who cannot"...to the response of "fuck your crisis...we don't believe anything you say".

Remember that for the next crisis...because you'll care oh so much about people in the next crisis too and we will yet again not follow along with your ideas about how "everybody should do X".

This is actually a great formulation of my thoughts from another direction.

I often come into conflict with folks approaching from the "conservative" side whose logic seems to be;

if - crisis is being used to consolidate power

then - crisis is made up bullshit

Sorry, but this logic does not hold water.  Rahm Emanuel's infamous chestnut is perhaps the most flagrant illustration that the powers that be will, in fact, use ANY crisis, conjured or terrifyingly real to further their designs.


Elwar, I accept your thesis that the forces of neoliberal globalism have squandered their credibility through repeated exploitation of crises.  I further accept that this complicates our response.

Do you accept that some of these crises may, in fact, be real??
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May 10, 2020, 06:24:35 PM

We haven’t reached panic state yet. Hold your buys for a bit (or ladder prudent).

I buy every week & have done for years. I’m going to buy tomorrow regardless of the price.

1BTC = 1BTC
This rate deserve some buying 8510$
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May 10, 2020, 06:25:09 PM

This has got to be miners selling up before the halving surely?
Let them dump and we can move on to new highs.
Looking forward to the 100k party hatters.

I tend to agree, think about it, if you're a miner your profits are about to literally get cut in half. Some of your assets become unprofitable the second block 630.000 is mined, old inefficient miners would be costing you money so you have to run around and take them offline ASAP. But you still have your sunk costs, datacenter, and electric contract in place so you'd need to replace old equipment with more efficient miners, but good luck raising capital and finding investors during pandemic where everyone is deleveraging, so your only option is to unload whatever stash you managed to save up to keep the lights on in your farm.
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May 10, 2020, 06:26:11 PM

There's much more to this, but i'd need "JJG superpowers of texting" to express all this in a meaningful way, i guess Cheesy

Maybe you could hire JJG as your personal wordsmith.
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May 10, 2020, 06:30:29 PM

Well, whoever dumped found willing buyers. For every sale there is an equal buy. There is nothing fishy going on except that the party engaging the transaction sets the price. If selling, the price goes down while eating through the available bids.

Some people got lucky today with buying cheaper Bitcoin.

I keep the option open to buy some at $7,700. If we won’t get there, fine as well.
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May 10, 2020, 06:32:01 PM


outstanding!

how do I vote for this guy?
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May 10, 2020, 06:39:14 PM

There's much more to this, but i'd need "JJG superpowers of texting" to express all this in a meaningful way, i guess Cheesy

Maybe you could hire JJG as your personal wordsmith.

This would likely make things worse, because it'd be still me having to explain him what's the matter on each topic.
No, this is not the same thing.
Or you just tried to be ironic, maybe?  Wink
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May 10, 2020, 06:43:24 PM

Do you accept that some of these crises may, in fact, be real??

"They don't care about you at all - at all - at all" - George Carlin.

Crisis may be real, but taking advise from people who don't care about you is foolish.
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May 10, 2020, 06:45:09 PM

Here's to cheating, stealing and drinking.
For if you cheat, may you cheat death. And if you steal, may you steal a maiden's heart, and if you drink, MAY YOU DRINK WITH ME!

Cheers WO ! Smiley
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May 10, 2020, 06:47:25 PM

Post this 2020 halvening miners will cease to be the biggest sellers of Bitcoin. It'll be the dawn of the crypto exchange as the leading seller.

The biggest sell pressure on Bitcoin will soon be from exchanges selling their BTC fees collected into fiat.

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1258966521071599616?s=21


BUT: When the bitcoin price doubles, and trading volume stays the same, the exchange trading fees selling pressure in bitcoin halves.

Second I think over time there will be pressure on trading fees collected by the exchanges, as mentioned in one of my previous posts. 0.5% and higher is insane and not sustainable in a competitive free market environment.

1) Which exchanges extract their fees in BTC? Any?

They don’t, that is the whole point.

I'm not sure what you both mean by that, but on Kraken you can choose for each trade to pay the fees in fiat or crypto. Also the maker fee is 0.16%, and goes down with volume, currently I'm at 0.14% and should soon be 0.12%. Once in a while I was much lower, trading with leverage, passing the 1 million $ mark of trades in a month, but I don't do this anymore. I didn't lose, but I didn't win either, at the end of the day lots of adrenaline but nothing to show for it. The exchange was the winner of course.

By contrast trading in stocks costs me about 0.9% per trade including a tax here in France. Daily traders can pay less fees, but the 0.3% tax is unavoidable (tax is only on big caps).
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May 10, 2020, 06:55:58 PM

[edited out - distasteful recommendation] ... or less painful way: rebuy at ~$5-6-7k and become a millionaire within the next 12-24 months.

You really think that we are going to reach sub $7k prices?

are you suggesting that mindrust should set buy orders at three different levels?  $5k, $6k and $7k?

What if we never see sub $8k again
?

looks like the bears working on it.

observing just north of $8.8k USD

bleh. but blehs are (usually) pretty temporary. so there is that.

Yep.

Surely, I don't become convinced that BTC price momentum had reversed merely because we got about a $1,300 price correction in 10 minutes (that was about 19 hours ago) and then subsequently trying to figure out which way to go from there.

At least, some of what had seemed to be overexuberance (prior to the dumpening) had gotten a wee bit shaved off. 

Thus, now, there is a bit of bouncing around with BTC prices seeming to cover a quite a bit of the real estate in the $8ks.. from $8,250 (a couple of hours ago) to $8,900 (11 hours ago).... so, are we going to get up or down out of this price range?  Surely, I am not one to rely upon to be proclaiming much of anything in certainty terms of that topic (even though I might have a lot to say in various areas around the topic, just for "funzies").
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May 10, 2020, 07:04:24 PM

Don't believe this has anything to do with weak hands. This is pure manipulation. They need to be able to downplay and smudge BTC in the MSM tomorrow, in order to prevent the general public from buying BTC in masses which would skyrocket the price and undermine conventional currency.

The manipulators aren't the weak hands. They're mostly selling to themselves.

It's the retail speculators that sold during the drop that are the weak hands.

The smart ones are the ones who bought the scraps that fell of the manipulators' plates as they fed off the weaklings.

Actually the really smart ones are the ones feasting at their own well-stocked tables, not giving a phuk.
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May 10, 2020, 07:05:44 PM

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May 10, 2020, 07:09:05 PM

Why not?
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May 10, 2020, 07:10:20 PM


That was pretty amazing haha. What a rant!
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