Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

My SOMA analysis system is itching. Something is going to happen soon, price-wise. My money is on a quick leg up, not overwhelming but definite.

$11,000 by September

prolly more like up to 15k then down to 11k by september. you all know how much fun honey badger like to have fun when it wants.

Hope you're right! I can't wait to change this hat.

[1713971747]

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[Indymoney]

My SOMA analysis system is itching. Something is going to happen soon, price-wise. My money is on a quick leg up, not overwhelming but definite.

$11,000 by September

prolly more like up to 15k then down to 11k by september. you all know how much fun honey badger like to have fun when it wants.

Hope you're right! I can't wait to change this hat.

In September 15000$ is really great as many good things coming so its good for them.

[kellrobinson]

March 12 saw a steep crash that pierced the base trend.



There's no compelling reason to think bitcoin will stay above the red square root line.  The curve fits bitcoin's price history, but the goodness of fit to past data doesn't mean that bitcoin will continue trending above the line.  Looking far enough into the future, bitcoin's total market value will have to taper off; society simply doesn't have infinite wealth to support the unbounded value expansion depicted by the parabolic curve on the log chart.
Generally, the exponential growth that new technologies exhibit early tapers off on a logistic curve.  (The logistic function was developed in the nineteenth century to model population growth.)  Wikipedia has a concise description of logistic growth.

The initial stage of growth is approximately exponential (geometric); then, as saturation begins, the growth slows to linear (arithmetic), and at maturity, growth stops.

The following chart compares parabolic regression and logistic regression on data (red) that hew closely to bitcoin's minima.  I'm expecting bitcoin's future base trend to fall between.



Regression on the red data in this chart

[LFC_Bitcoin]

kellrobinson, the base trend was pierced because people panicked about an unprecedented (in our lifetime) global pandemic. We recovered from people panic dumping very quickly & it’s now history. It was a totally isolated point & likely won’t happen again.

There’s definitely at least one more parabolic, face melting blowoff top for bitcoin.

[kellrobinson]

kellrobinson, the base trend was pierced because people panicked about an unprecedented (in our lifetime) global pandemic. We recovered from people panic dumping very quickly & it’s now history. It was a totally isolated point & likely won’t happen again.

There’s definitely at least one more parabolic, face melting blowoff top for bitcoin.

In the next year or two, there isn't a hell of a lot of difference between the parabolic regression forecast (yellow) and the logistic regression forecast (blue).  By that time, there will be occasion to re-evaluate anyway.
I think corn go up, probably another crazy FOMO boom, but FOMO not guaranteed.
I'm re-evaluating my projections based on a seat-of-the-pants feeling.  The parabolic regression's projection just looks too steep.
The logistic probably isn't steep enough.
Remember y'all, these are minima traces.
So hungry honey badger gonna jump up and come down to rest sooner or later between those yellow and blue lines.  
Lotta real estate between those lines, going out into the future.  Can't be precise with this kind of stuff.
My two dinars.

[rolling]

kellrobinson, the base trend was pierced because people panicked about an unprecedented (in our lifetime) global pandemic. We recovered from people panic dumping very quickly & it’s now history. It was a totally isolated point & likely won’t happen again.

There’s definitely at least one more parabolic, face melting blowoff top for bitcoin.

In the next year or two, there isn't a hell of a lot of difference between the parabolic regression forecast (yellow) and the logistic regression forecast (blue).  By that time, there will be occasion to re-evaluate anyway.
I think corn go up, probably another crazy FOMO boom, but FOMO not guaranteed.
I'm re-evaluating my projections based on a seat-of-the-pants feeling.  The parabolic regression's projection just looks too steep.
The logistic probably isn't steep enough.
Remember y'all, these are minima traces.
So hungry honey badger gonna jump up and come down to rest sooner or later between those yellow and blue lines.  
Lotta real estate between those lines, going out into the future.  Can't be precise with this kind of stuff.
My two dinars.

I'd like to see how that looks with a terminal price of around $10Million rather than $500k. That's the price it needs to get to in order to be useful on a global scale. If it stops at $500k then it has failed and would likely go back to something much lower.

[JimboToronto]

Good morn Bitcoinland.
Nine one sixty-six dollars
(Bitcoinaverage).

Welcum back Lawblaw
I see they left your merits...
Merits well deserved.

Hold your head up high:
Nolite te bastardes
Carborundorum!

Jeez, what happened? Such a page crash I've never seen in WO before! Several hudred pages I think. Are we under a hacker attack? Are all old posts SAFU?

We had some pretty good page crashes at milestones like 10k pages, but the biggest was when Ritchy_t rage quit and took Chartbuddy with him.

No sweat. WO keeps trudging on.

[Last of the V8s]

Bent as a nine-bob
note. Black as the Ace of Spades.
Our Texan cowboy.

[Icygreen]

Benzos  

This is an absolute repugnant asshole comment meant nothing more as a pointed jab, rooted in complete ignorance.

It's almost like you guys are pretending I'm a different person or something right now.

I'm still the same old Bob.

Certainly NOT a jab but I see where the comment could be taken personal, It's not personal, its an observation of irrational emotional swings which remind me of my own family members whom are dependent on the same stuff.    

Believe it or not Bob, there are people who genuinely care about your well being and participation in our lives here.  

Still the same old Bob? I'll admit, sodomizing JJG didn't raise too many eyebrows but now that the rusty baton is making its rounds on the WO... And Mic, a guy who exudes nothing but camaraderie, goodwill and trust?  
As we witness Bob set ablaze the pyre of his words, we recount the time we shared and feel sad and confused for our loss while trying to make sense of it all.  

[El duderino_]

Benzos  

This is an absolute repugnant asshole comment meant nothing more as a pointed jab, rooted in complete ignorance.

It's almost like you guys are pretending I'm a different person or something right now.

I'm still the same old Bob.

Certainly NOT a jab but I see where the comment could be taken personal, It's not personal, its an observation of irrational emotional swings which remind me of my own family members whom are dependent on the same stuff.    

Believe it or not Bob, there are people who genuinely care about your well being and participation in our lives here.  

Still the same old Bob? I'll admit, sodomizing JJG didn't raise too many eyebrows but now that the rusty baton is making its rounds on the WO... And Mic, a guy who exudes nothing but camaraderie, goodwill and trust?  
As we witness Bob set ablaze the pyre of his words, we recount the time we shared and feel sad and confused for our loss while trying to make sense of it all.  

Glad to see you as a Legendary.... JSRAW sealed the deal :-)

I cannot follow bob atm... though I was mostly meriting you, cause you must be Legendary ASAP

[yefi]

We are going to burn the podium dancers? haven't they suffered enough in this panamacademic

Yes, but look at those frumpy outfits. And one even brought her baby to the job - a capital crime if ever I've seen one.

[Icygreen]

Yes, indeed Legendary, forever plucked of innocence and excuse, might I fill these big boy shoes and walk another mile or so with you lads.  Noticed Dude and JSRAW's generous contribution. Cheers! I see a similar opportunity in someone's near future  

Just had the most bad-ass stand up paddle board trip down a river, full of nature and tranquility and exactly the recharge I was looking for. Top of the summer to ya!

[degxtra1]

If mass hysteria descends we end up with THIS

The problem is they know about THIS and will do everything to keep covid hysteria going on and on.
merit+ for well describing picture.

I never thought I’d see the day when publicly wearing a muzzle would constitute a proof of virtue in the same country whose government, less than twenty years ago, rationalized the bloody invasion of Afghanistan as a way of saving women from veiling their faces.

But then, I never thought I’d hear American liberals proudly denounce supporters of the US Constitution as a “death cult,” nor that I’d actually start to find Donald Trump sounding almost reasonable.

remaining part here https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/18/media-mask-mania-or-covid19-groupthink/

[kellrobinson]

kellrobinson, the base trend was pierced because people panicked about an unprecedented (in our lifetime) global pandemic. We recovered from people panic dumping very quickly & it’s now history. It was a totally isolated point & likely won’t happen again.

There’s definitely at least one more parabolic, face melting blowoff top for bitcoin.

In the next year or two, there isn't a hell of a lot of difference between the parabolic regression forecast (yellow) and the logistic regression forecast (blue).  By that time, there will be occasion to re-evaluate anyway.
I think corn go up, probably another crazy FOMO boom, but FOMO not guaranteed.
I'm re-evaluating my projections based on a seat-of-the-pants feeling.  The parabolic regression's projection just looks too steep.
The logistic probably isn't steep enough.
Remember y'all, these are minima traces.
So hungry honey badger gonna jump up and come down to rest sooner or later between those yellow and blue lines.  
Lotta real estate between those lines, going out into the future.  Can't be precise with this kind of stuff.
My two dinars.

I'd like to see how that looks with a terminal price of around $10Million rather than $500k. That's the price it needs to get to in order to be useful on a global scale. If it stops at $500k then it has failed and would likely go back to something much lower.

Since bitcoin has probably not reached its logistic inflection point yet, the results of a logistic regression are bound to be a crapshoot.
$10 million is about as good a guess as any other.
Here's a link to the equation that the regression calculator returned for my data
https://cdn.mathpix.com/snip/images/xJ-Ks3hpZ0PB2dqkwFNkk9bHFi45RXJpZund7Ase0ds.rendered.fullsize.png
You can manipulate the parameters to get the curve you want.
The calculator I used: https://www.aatbio.com/tools/four-parameter-logistic-4pl-curve-regression-online-calculator

You need to look at the logistic curve on a linear chart to see the familiar symmetrical "sigmoid" shape with the inflection point at center.
The curve's appearance is deceptive on a log chart.  That log chart makes it look like the inflection point happened several years ago.
The inflection point of the logistic curve I posted is actually in April 2029.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Everybody has lost the plot due to covid lockdowns, bitcoin doing literally nothing but limping along sideways etc.
I have to admit my own mental health has been affected during this testing time for all.

Everybody just needs to chill though, I won’t say my opinions on the virus as many don’t agree but life will soon return to normal. The BTC price will move upwards soon, we haven’t seen any effect of the halving on the market yet, it was the same at this point after the 2016 halving, boring as fuck. It takes a while for the reduced amount of newly mined coins to be reflected in the price.

Miners having less coins to dump on exchanges will tell soon, it has to.

We all just need to be patient & keep our stress/anxiety levels down. Everything is going to be fine, keep on HODLING, at the end of the storm, there’s a golden sky.

Someone is providing some value. Sorry brother out of sMerits.

Quoting:

Bent as a nine-bob
note. Black as the Ace of Spades.
Our Texan cowboy.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

JSRAW sealed the deal :-)

Is he a Legendary now?

[yefi]

I don't understand why they're talking about a BTC twitter hack. It's a twitter hack, full stop.

Once you have achieved this, you can use it to make money. IMHO they botched it with the BTC stuff, for several reasons, including the fact that you need to be a moron to send BTC to someone under these circumstances, and morons rarely own BTC.

The only thing needed was Elon Musk's account. You build a short on Tesla, you have his account saying something like "stock value way too high", "model Y is not selling", "gigafactory is on fire", and profit from the drop.

It's like they had the keys to Fort Knox and they decided to steal the fork lift.

Seriously, what's the most bungled crime that's ever been committed? These guys are on the top ten list.

[Toxic2040]

Everybody has lost the plot due to covid lockdowns, bitcoin doing literally nothing but limping along sideways etc.
I have to admit my own mental health has been affected during this testing time for all.

Everybody just needs to chill though, I won’t say my opinions on the virus as many don’t agree but life will soon return to normal. The BTC price will move upwards soon, we haven’t seen any effect of the halving on the market yet, it was the same at this point after the 2016 halving, boring as fuck. It takes a while for the reduced amount of newly mined coins to be reflected in the price.

Miners having less coins to dump on exchanges will tell soon, it has to.

We all just need to be patient & keep our stress/anxiety levels down. Everything is going to be fine, keep on HODLING, at the end of the storm, there’s a golden sky.

+1 WOsMerit

-----

Yes, indeed Legendary, forever plucked of innocence and excuse, might I fill these big boy shoes and walk another mile or so with you lads.  Noticed Dude and JSRAW's generous contribution. Cheers! I see a similar opportunity in someone's near future 

Just had the most bad-ass stand up paddle board trip down a river, full of nature and tranquility and exactly the recharge I was looking for. Top of the summer to ya!

+1 WOsMerit

grats Icy
-----

Since bitcoin has probably not reached its logistic inflection point yet, the results of a logistic regression are bound to be a crapshoot.
$10 million is about as good a guess as any other.
Here's a link to the equation that the regression calculator returned for my data
https://cdn.mathpix.com/snip/images/xJ-Ks3hpZ0PB2dqkwFNkk9bHFi45RXJpZund7Ase0ds.rendered.fullsize.png
You can manipulate the parameters to get the curve you want.
The calculator I used: https://www.aatbio.com/tools/four-parameter-logistic-4pl-curve-regression-online-calculator

You need to look at the logistic curve on a linear chart to see the familiar symmetrical "sigmoid" shape with the inflection point at center.
The curve's appearance is deceptive on a log chart.  That log chart makes it look like the inflection point happened several years ago.
The inflection point of the logistic curve I posted is actually in April 2029.

+1 WOsMerit


-----

#haikusunday

Together, held all
Another Sunday rolls by
Despite the dark, light


cat pounces
4h


#dyor
D

#stronghands

[wxa7115]

The only thing needed was Elon Musk's account. You build a short on Tesla, you have his account saying something like "stock value way too high", "model Y is not selling", "gigafactory is on fire", and profit from the drop.

But that would be traceable don’t you think? The authorities will only have to look at anyone shorting Tesla and see if anyone used leverage and then look for anyone that could fit the profile of a potential hacker.

It's like they had the keys to Fort Knox and they decided to steal the fork lift.

Seriously, what's the most bungled crime that's ever been committed? These guys are on the top ten list.

I refuse to believe this was a case of flagrant stupidity, to me this is as if the hackers were after something more valuable to them, it is possible there was something in those accounts that was valuable to someone and they delivered that message as evidence they got in and got what they wanted, however just leaving a message will be suspicious so the doubling scam was just a way to conceal their intentions and make it seem as if they wanted money when what they were really after was something else.

Obviously this sounds like a conspiracy theory but I fail to see how it makes sense otherwise.

[Indymoney]

JSRAW sealed the deal :-)

Is he a Legendary now?

No he is still Hero Member. Icygreen is Legendary now.