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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25463497 times)
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JayJuanGee
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July 31, 2020, 02:20:36 AM


I did not consider what I said to have been dumb when I said it.

I thought that I was largely attempting to address the concept of the dead zone, and you had come up with a theory that speculated that the deadzone was NOT a deadzone.

With your more than 9 years in bitcoinlandia, you should already know that those theories of supposed everyone wanting to sell their BTC at the previous ATH had been presented numerous times before, and there tends to be little to no actual evidence to support those kind of selling at previous ATH theories beyond the fact that a lot of people spout them out as if there were facts to actually back them up.  Am I missing something?


I actually think you are attributing something to my words that I did not mean.  I am not predicting some doom and gloom scenario where it is incredibly hard to get past the ATH, or that a pullback after breaching it a little bit is going to be earth shattering.

Again I think back to the last even where bitcoin first re-crossed it's (what was in NOV14?) previous ATH ~1100 or whatever it was.  There was a good pull back after that, and the general air was kinda mixed.  There was a LOT of fear at that time.  In retrospect the entire thing was very quick.  But the road was a little bumpy around that price at the time.

I think there is a good chance we see something like that again.  I dunno HOW good?  50/50?  It doesn't really matter.  But a LOT of people got into bitcoin in late 2017, and some of those have soured on it.  We *will* have to chew through that resistance.  And like I also said it might just get blown by as well.  

But what i am doing is practicing putting on my fog lights now so that when it gets foggy I have the best chance at good outcomes.

Ok.  Fair enough.  Each of us has made our point in this regard, and it is possible that I may have misunderstood some of your emphasis in terms of how you might want to play this area that I consider to be a deadzone, which is in the territory of between $17,250 and $23,500.

If you have never sold BTC previously, and you consider yourself to be such a strong hand, I remain a bit unclear why you would be contemplating any kind of meaningful resistance within any BTC prices between $17,250 and $23,500?

Might you not be contradicting yourself a bit to be worried about such price arena?  

I personally have suggested to people to take some BTC off the table at various points, which in this case might be before and after the deadzone, but not so much within the deadzone.... but sure, each BTC HODLer has their own way of dealing with how to manage their finances and their psychology, and surely planning does make it less likely that any BTC HODLer would run the risk of panicking.. whither that is selling too much too early or other strategic errors that might be too numerous to list.

By the way, as you may have recognized, I frequently talk about short-term BTC price movements in terms of 50/50 chances, but I don't talk that way about the deadzone... so that was probably why I was all on your case regarding the probabilities that you seemed to have been assigning to the deadzone, including the motives of various kinds of BTC HODLers that would supposedly be "feeling" like bag holders.

My own thesis continues to be that the Bagholder theory is a bunch of bullshit.

There are not so many people who supposedly bought BTC in the supra $14k to $20k range and are so fucking anxious to get rid of their BTC merely because all of a sudden they are in profits 3 years or more later.  Sure, there might be some dumb asses who think about their BTC Holdings in such a way, but the vast majority who have not already been shaken from their BTC holdings would have had nearly 3 years to buy some more and to average their prices down, and so what, anyhow, if there are some folks who are whining about having a negative BTC portfolio because they sat on their hands for 3 years and did not do shit to bring down their average cost per BTC.  They are aberrations and they are going to be out numbered by various other kinds of buyers, whether newbies or other kinds of buyers who are going to cause the BTC price to go shooting past the deadzone and the previous ATH.. whether it takes 3-4 months or more and whether there might be some headfakes within that deadzone..  once we get above  $17,250, pretty much we are going to be going above $23,500 and largely you can count on it with higher than 50/50 odds.. one of the rare moments in bitcoin probabilities that odds are NO longer 50/50 or lower.

#DYOR
#YMMV
#BTMFD
# blah blah blah  (don't be listening to random peeps on the interwebs for BTC investment/trading advices)

Well, I gotta say I enjoy watching the battle @11 grand rather than 9300. Cheesy

exactamente!!!!

Dickering around at $11k is way better than dickering around at $9,300s and even $9,300s was much better than when we were dickering around in the $6ks/$7ks for much of April.
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July 31, 2020, 02:33:18 AM
Last edit: July 31, 2020, 02:59:32 AM by Hueristic
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Herman Cain dies of Corona.

I gotta say I find this Highly amusing! Grin





Well he doesn't have to wear a face diaper now.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy



Quote
Herman Cain, ex-presidential candidate who refused to wear mask, dies after COVID-19 diagnosis
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-cain/herman-cain-ex-presidential-candidate-who-refused-to-wear-mask-dies-after-covid-19-diagnosis-idUSKCN24V2OD


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Cain, 74, learned of his diagnosis on June 29, nine days after attending a Trump rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, where he and many others crowded together without wearing face masks aimed at preventing the spread of the novel coronavirus.


This dumbasses last tweet. Its been deleted now.






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July 31, 2020, 02:57:45 AM

Might you not be contradicting yourself a bit to be worried about such price arena?  

I am not worried.  I am interested.  And I enjoy trying to see into the future.  And psychology plas a role in it.  The very name of this thread has to do with buy/sell walls, which arguably are used as a tool for market manipulation as well as just being a buy/sell.

I personally have suggested to people to take some BTC off the table at various points, which in this case might be before and after the deadzone, but not so much within the deadzone.... but sure, each BTC HODLer has their own way of dealing with how to manage their finances and their psychology, and surely planning does make it less likely that any BTC HODLer would run the risk of panicking.. whither that is selling too much too early or other strategic errors that might be too numerous to list.

By the way, as you may have recognized, I frequently talk about short-term BTC price movements in terms of 50/50 chances, but I don't talk that way about the deadzone... so that was probably why I was all on your case regarding the probabilities that you seemed to have been assigning to the deadzone, including the motives of various kinds of BTC HODLers that would supposedly be "feeling" like bag holders.

My own thesis continues to be that the Bagholder theory is a bunch of bullshit.

There are not so many people who supposedly bought BTC in the supra $14k to $20k range and are so fucking anxious to get rid of their BTC merely because all of a sudden they are in profits 3 years or more later.  Sure, there might be some dumb asses who think about their BTC Holdings in such a way, but the vast majority who have not already been shaken from their BTC holdings would have had nearly 3 years to buy some more and to average their prices down, and so what, anyhow, if there are some folks who are whining about having a negative BTC portfolio because they sat on their hands for 3 years and did not do shit to bring down their average cost per BTC.  They are aberrations and they are going to be out numbered by various other kinds of buyers, whether newbies or other kinds of buyers who are going to cause the BTC price to go shooting past the deadzone and the previous ATH.. whether it takes 3-4 months or more and whether there might be some headfakes within that deadzone..  once we get above  $17,250, pretty much we are going to be going above $23,500 and largely you can count on it with higher than 50/50 odds.. one of the rare moments in bitcoin probabilities that odds are NO longer 50/50 or lower. [/size]
Your deadzone idea is interesting... We will just have to see how it plays out.  I am good either way.
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July 31, 2020, 03:04:19 AM

Herman Cain dies of Corona.

I gotta say I find this Highly amusing! Grin

Death - not really that amusing IMO. Bad candidate for Darwin Awards too since he had already procreated.
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July 31, 2020, 03:11:35 AM

Herman Cain dies of Corona.

I gotta say I find this Highly amusing! Grin

Death - not really that amusing IMO. Bad candidate for Darwin Awards too since he had already procreated.

 He seems to have lived his life on his own terms.  That alone deserves respect.



 
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July 31, 2020, 03:20:14 AM

[edited out]
Your deadzone idea is interesting... We will just have to see how it plays out.  I am good either way.

Surely, looking forward to it.

We each realize that some of the BTC price resistance points change, depending on BTC price movements and sometimes how fast the BTC price might move in one direction or another or even how severe or prolonged a correction might be.

Currently, we do seem to be stuck in a fairly narrow BTC price zone around $11k, but we have only been here for 3.5 days.

So sure it would be quite amazing (but not out of the question) if we were to get into the deadzone within the next 1 week to 3 months... and in that kind of quicker getting there scenario, I would expect resistance at $13,880 and at $17,250.. and also more likelihood to fail getting through the deadzone, if we get there so quickly - especially given that we were having troubles getting above and staying above $10k for about the past 10 months or so.

On the other hand, if it takes more than 3 months or even up to 18 months in your slowly getting up there scenario to break above $17,250, then that might change the dynamics and probably in that longer drawn out scenario, I would think that my deadzone theory would be stronger in a slowly getting there scenario, but either way, I am maintaining a tentative deadzone theory but that deadzone theory would be weaker, if we were to go shooting up within the zone in less than 3 months without getting some kind of somewhat meaningful correction first.
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July 31, 2020, 03:20:18 AM
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He seems to have lived his life on his own terms.  That alone deserves respect.

Too bad he gave up on reality and started drinking the Kool-Aid. Happens to a lot of successful people, they think that just because they are successful at one thing they are experts in everything.

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July 31, 2020, 03:27:09 AM

Herman Cain dies of Corona.

I gotta say I find this Highly amusing! Grin

Death - not really that amusing IMO. Bad candidate for Darwin Awards too since he had already procreated.

I'm thinking his grandkids will have learned something from him here as I'm sure they didn't learn anything useful otherwise.

Death can certainly be amusing, there are many worthless people in this world and this one had more than enough time to do his damage.

Herman Cain dies of Corona.

I gotta say I find this Highly amusing! Grin

Death - not really that amusing IMO. Bad candidate for Darwin Awards too since he had already procreated.

 He seems to have lived his life on his own terms.  That alone deserves respect.



 

Respect is earned I have not seen anything from him worthy of respect.

But that is my opinion you of course can have your own.


He seems to have lived his life on his own terms.  That alone deserves respect.

Too bad he gave up on reality and started drinking the Kool-Aid. Happens to a lot of successful people, they think that just because they are successful at one thing they are experts in everything.



W0rd.
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July 31, 2020, 03:31:29 AM
Last edit: July 31, 2020, 01:02:40 PM by JayJuanGee
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Herman Cain dies of Corona.

I gotta say I find this Highly amusing! Grin

Death - not really that amusing IMO. Bad candidate for Darwin Awards too since he had already procreated.

I think that political division has caused some of us to find situations "amusing" based upon political stances of certain people, and I recall that Herman Cain was advocating against taking personal protection precautions in regards to the virus, such as against masks.. or social distancing..  .. if he did die from Corona based on NOT taking adequate precautions and based on his previously taken public stances on the matter that were contrary to science and even contrary to facts or practical logic, that seems to justify that the matter might be a bit amusing - even if he ended up paying with his life...

I think that I took some similar stances in regards to the irony of public anti-virus stances of Boris Johnson catching Corona and also that preacher who died from covid after attending marti gras and being so vocal about the purported fakeness of the virus. .. blah blah blah.. .

It is sad that we should rejoice (if that is what we are doing?.. but.. some of the folks kind of bring such attack on themselves too, in their earlier public anti-science and anti-facts stances) the death of these kinds of seemingly publicly dumb people.

There had been some outrageous virus deniers out there, but some of the actual statistics, including actual deaths make it more difficult to deny either the existence of the virus or that a variety of precautions and virus focused preventative measures might be in order to consider and to implement... science and fact based, especially.   Wink  amusing, funny or strange as that might be.   Cry
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July 31, 2020, 03:43:17 AM
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Herman Cain dies of Corona.

I gotta say I find this Highly amusing! Grin

Death - not really that amusing IMO. Bad candidate for Darwin Awards too since he had already procreated.

I think that political division has caused some of us to find situations amusing based upon political stances of certain people, and I recall that Herman Cain was advocating against taking precautions, such as against masks.. or social distancing..  .. if he did die from Corona based on NOT taking adequate precautions and based on his previously taken public stances on the matter, that seems to be implied by the amusing stance on the matter...

I think that I took some similar stances in regards to Boris Johnson catching Corona and also that preacher who died from covid after attending marti gras and being so vocal about the purported fakeness of the virus.

There had been some outrageous virus deniers out there, but some of the actual statistics, including actual deaths make it more difficult to deny either the existence of the virus or that a variety of precautions and virus focused measures might be in order to consider and to implement... science and fact based, especially.   Wink  amusing, funny or strange as that might be.   Cry



These fuckers spreading fake news is one thing but when it costs innocent people their lives they deserve all they get.
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July 31, 2020, 03:51:07 AM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

Herman Cain dies of Corona.

I gotta say I find this Highly amusing! Grin

Death - not really that amusing IMO. Bad candidate for Darwin Awards too since he had already procreated.

I think that political division has caused some of us to find situations amusing based upon political stances of certain people, and I recall that Herman Cain was advocating against taking precautions, such as against masks.. or social distancing..  .. if he did die from Corona based on NOT taking adequate precautions and based on his previously taken public stances on the matter, that seems to be implied by the amusing stance on the matter...

I think that I took some similar stances in regards to Boris Johnson catching Corona and also that preacher who died from covid after attending marti gras and being so vocal about the purported fakeness of the virus.

There had been some outrageous virus deniers out there, but some of the actual statistics, including actual deaths make it more difficult to deny either the existence of the virus or that a variety of precautions and virus focused measures might be in order to consider and to implement... science and fact based, especially.   Wink  amusing, funny or strange as that might be.   Cry



These fuckers spreading fake news is one thing but when it costs innocent people their lives they deserve all they get.

Surely, we are not going to agree about a lot of the details, but it is true that some kinds of  stances in regards to misinformation just go way too far, especially from supposed leaders.. and sometimes we might think that they might just be being dumb, but sometimes the seeming ongoing denials of science and facts just seems to go way too far... - like it is on purpose... so purposefully misleading and therefore harmful to too many people.

And, hey, I surely don't believe that there is only one way to view the science or the facts, and surely, I am not of the thinking that neither politics or economics matter, because those things are important too.. and can even help to determine how to focus relief based on weighing costs and benefits on a societal level, and we can even disagree about some of that..

Yet, in any event, I would include myself as one of those who get kind of irritated by the various anti-science people and the anti-facts people who are proclaiming that they are not that way.. and I am pretty sure that Cain was one of those kind of folks.. so the karma aspect of this situation does seem to apply here.. at least tentatively from what seems to had been some of his recent stances.. prior to his death... and maybe I would not use the word amusing, even though I do understand that it was meant in a karma sense rather than any kind of personal vindictive sense (though there may reasonably be those kinds of feelings, too.. especially given the gravity of the ongoing bullshit and even ongoing lying that should have been corrected more than 8-9 months after learning about this virus thingie).
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July 31, 2020, 03:51:50 AM
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People said Covid-19 is under control in Australia.

Stay save WO brothers.

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July 31, 2020, 04:06:02 AM


Surely, we are not going to agree about a lot of the details, but it is true that some kinds of  stances in regards to misinformation just go way too far, especially from supposed leaders.. and sometimes we might think that they might just be being dumb, but sometimes the seeming ongoing denials of science and facts just seems to go way too far... - like it is on purpose... so purposefully misleading and therefore harmful to too many people.

And, hey, I surely don't believe that there is only one way to view the science or the facts, and surely, I am not of the thinking that neither politics or economics matter, because those things are important too.. and can even help to determine how to focus relief based on weighing costs and benefits on a societal level, and we can even disagree about some of that..

Yet, in any event, I would include myself as one of those who get kind of irritated by the various anti-science people and the anti-facts people who are proclaiming that they are not that way.. and I am pretty sure that Cain was one of those kind of folks.. so the karma aspect of this situation does seem to apply here.. at least tentatively from what seems to had been some of his recent stances.. prior to his death... and maybe I would not use the word amusing, even though I do understand that it was meant in a karma sense rather than any kind of personal vindictive sense (though there may reasonably be those kinds of feelings, too.. especially given the gravity of the ongoing bullshit and even ongoing lying that should have been corrected more than 8-9 months after learning about this virus thingie).

You have described my opinion on this matter better than I have. I lose my mind when I see those in positions of power being irresponsible with people lives. That is a line that shouldn't be crossed because of politics, no matter what party is doing it.
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July 31, 2020, 04:10:27 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eIoyeCGENk
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July 31, 2020, 04:35:52 AM



Yes, it seems the meme is crystallizing into reality
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July 31, 2020, 05:00:05 AM

https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-grifters-chapter-1-kodak/

Quote
They’re. Not. Even. Pretending. Anymore.

Who is “they”?

On the corporate-grift side, it’s Kodak Chairman and CEO Jim Continenza (SEC CIK 0001197594), who picked up about 3 million shares and cheap options over the past year. It’s Kodak board member George Karfunkel (SEC CIK 0001085765), of the private equity and banking Zyskind-Karfunkel family, with his 6.4 million shares. It’s Kodak board member Philippe Katz (SEC CIK 0001579836), who owns about 4.3 million shares through at least five shell companies.

Quote
Who is “they”?

On the government-grift side, it’s Donald Trump, who gets a press conference and a talking point.

It’s Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who sit on the DFC board of directors and approved this deal, each pocketing a favor.

It’s Larry Kudlow, University of Rochester alum and friend of Kodak, who pockets a BIG favor.

It’s Adam Boehler, 41 year-old CEO of the DFC, who cements a lucrative career once his government “service” is complete.


etc good stuff

 I'm surprised that 600watt isn't named there.  His opsec must be spot on.


exactly my thoughts. how do you know I am not named?  Wink
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July 31, 2020, 05:11:10 AM



Yes, it seems the meme is crystallizing into reality

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTL4qIIxg8A

and of course

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgJ5ZEn67tk
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My first post on the forum from 2013 :-)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=343475.msg3680065#msg3680065
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July 31, 2020, 05:57:20 AM
Last edit: July 31, 2020, 06:07:47 AM by 600watt
Merited by El duderino_ (2), vapourminer (1), cAPSLOCK (1), infofront (1), bitebits (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

trying to be prepared and having plan, whether it is incremental or trying to hit the top to exit with big parts of stash is all nice and smart. but there are problems. Marcus of Augustus posting of the Matrix/Neo meme holds much more truth than it appears when only seeing it as a joke. one day there will be a run-up in bitcoin where all the exit-plan guys will get burned badly. because all they get is collapsing fiat. it will be a lot of fiat, and they will feel rich for some days, but in reality they have just given away their wealth. maybe some of the present day dollar billionaires are waiting too for that moment. they don't take the risk of investing in bitcoin early, but they wait until the $ collapse is around the corner (better say accelerating since it is already going on) and then swiftly jump from fiat to btc. leaving the bitcoin hodlers with their brillant exit plan with tons of worthless printed paper confetti.

imagine you win $30 million in a lottery tomorrow. what would you do with it? after the hookers and blow I am sure you want to invest. land? sure. but be aware that in case your country goes bonkers and you have to leave, you can't take that with you. and maybe you can't even sell it in case of emergency fast enough for a good price. real estate? prices are on record highs, you buy into a bubble. stocks? same shit. gold? also very hard to carry across borders. and on record highs. investing in bitcoin seems reasonable. for all the crisis scenarios for sure. if you would invest crazy fiat figures into bitcoin because of safety, why would you plan the exact opposite only because the asset that you identified as safe playing is doing what you always expected it to do: becoming more valuable in fiat. in the moment the nemesis of fiat does its thing, the biggest proponents of bitcoin want to jump into the the arms of rotting fiat. I don't get that.



edit: the "this-time-it´s-different" guys will eventually be right one day. then all the efforts of the exit-planners will be crushed. there will be "the big one" someday.


edit2: what I mean is that there will be no buying back later for cheap prices because after the "big-one" prices aint coming back.

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July 31, 2020, 06:21:33 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), cAPSLOCK (1), 600watt (1)


https://twitter.com/NautilusCap/status/1288903795422920711
Quote
#Dollar -- Reminder, 16-year cycle has "captured" all major swings ........... next trough not until February 2025.

hmm. who would win to break this cycle?

2.5 million 'neckbeards in their basements' backed by an army of 25,000 tech-heads with cheap electricity hopefully mostly upstream of the 3 Gorges Dam

or 25,000 crony capitalist families backed by an army of 2.5 million grunts armed to the teeth with nukes and other redundant technologies
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