Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

Too many charts here   I know we should look at the wall but I believe that time has passed.
We need more trains, rockets and spartans.
Forget charts.

Yep get outside that box look at this from a miners viewpoint.

Tx fees shot to the moon in 2017 april

ATH was dec 2017


Tx fees are way up there July 2020

I think they are a leading indicator of a bullrun



In 2017 you started to have gear shortages  then bull run

In 2020 bitmain ain't selling anything = Bull run?


https://shop.bitmain.com/  every miner sold out = Bullrun?

https://shop.bitmain.com/product/parts  every part sold out = Bullrun?


but wait there is more

I have done difficulty threads for years.

Called the 2018 october difficulty drop perfectly. to the exact epoch

I study price / difficulty relationships  a lot.


BACK IN 2017 diff could not keep up with the price rise. miners with gear in place scored big time

from july 7 2017 diff was 860 gh  to dec 5 2017 diff was 1.34th   so increase in diff was a factor of

1340/860 = 1.558 factor increase

check price rise from july 7 2017 to dec  5 2017

July 4 2524    dec 11 16060  or 16060/2524 = 6.36 factor increase

that was a glorious time for a miner  as price jumped 6.363x  while diff jumped 1.558x

So if I am correct every factor or indicator for a repeat is in place.

crazy high fees
restricted gear purchasing

it all matches up.

it also fits with USA election fud
covid-19 fud

I would think if you go from july 21 price of 9100 x 6.36 = 57902

This is an outside the box analysis based from the viewpoint of a miner not a trader.

[1713890265]

1713890265

[1713890265]

1713890265

[JayJuanGee]

Have you guys been consulting with Torque?

Numbers are hardly as BIG of a thing as you are making them out to be.

Even though they are.

only because some traders seem use round numbers to place their orders doesn't mean "we" are making them big.  

there sure are some big walls at the obvious points. so i too set weirdish amounts on my ladders.

Even when I beat to death the idea with people about not setting their orders exactly at round numbers, they still do it.

But sure, I also understand that even if the orders are not exactly set at the round numbers, there will also be a bit of gravitation of orders at various BIG psychological points too, and probably even some playing around of whales and institutional investors to exacerbate an already existing condition to make the psychological price point even BIGGER than it should be.

Part of the reason too, that once we break through some of the BIG round number resistance points, the distance travelled tends to have some irrationality to it, too.

Part of the reason also, if you are still following me, why the previous ATH is quite likely to have a deadman's zone.. and in this current situation, I am still tentatively predicting it to be (and perhaps I am even being a bit too conservative on the topside of such zone) in the $17,250 to $23,500 arena..  

3D printing a Pokémon doll as a special present to my niece. Uncle duties...

Looks like the beast has awoken again!

We are The HoDLers.
We answer to no one, but...
Lambos, Hookers, Blow!

#haiku

That's a bit of a stark contrast, AlcoHoDL, all contained within one post.   

[AlcoHoDL]

Pokémon doll still 3D printing... 13h 42m left.

Number go up.
Volume go up.

$12k (10k €) / BTC before doll ready?

[AlcoHoDL]

3D printing a Pokémon doll as a special present to my niece. Uncle duties...

Looks like the beast has awoken again!

We are The HoDLers.
We answer to no one, but...
Lambos, Hookers, Blow!

#haiku

That's a bit of a stark contrast, AlcoHoDL, all contained within one post.  

Wow, right before my previous post! Are we telepathically connected?

Believe me, I thought about the contrast issue.

Haiku/Uncle duties conflicting... LOL.

Her daddy is a coiner. Thanks to me. Although he holds much more alts than BTC. I've warned him, but he has fallen into the "BTC too expensive" trap. I hope the incoming bull run will find him HoDLing some good amount of corn.

[cAPSLOCK]

You know what I hope?  I hope that the big ass drop a couple nights ago from 12k to 10.5 was a bear shorting and that was him selling at market.  He was sure from all the lines on his chart it was going down from here.

And now he is getting just a little bit nervous.  And wondering if he set the leverage a little too high.

Maybe we get to see him cover.  Ha.  I hope so.

[JayJuanGee]

Time to hold our coins
Panic sellers will exit
We gain with bull run



#haiku

Have you been through a bull run as a HODLers in any previously BTC price run, glowing10?

I see that you have a July 31, 2017 forum registration date ("awkward" date, no?)

It can take a lot of time, practice and persistence to really HODL through a bullrun, and my ongoing (tentatively still) impression of our current bull run is that it actually started around April 1, 2019, and it was tentatively confirmed to have had started on that date in about mid-May 2019.

Yeah, we have had some definite challenges and testing of our HODLer resolve in the past 2 years, and there surely had been a decent amount of shakening of weak hands through the past 2 years -ish.. and even speculations and beliefs from them that our two year bull run was not in progress.

In other words, corrections within a bull run can be long, deep and ultimately savage, weeding out HODLers who we had previously considered to have been strong hands.

Seems that neither of us, glowing10, are expecting any kind of smooth ride from here on out, or even the absence of continued "testing" of HODLer resolve.  Maybe you can say a bit more about background that might substantiate your resolve or your plans going forward in terms of being ready, willing and able to hold through possible tougher periods that are likely?   or at least whether you consider yourself to be in a BTC accumulator situation, a maintainer situation or maybe you have some liquidation needs in the coming year or two?

[savetherainforest]

Terrifyingly important podcast https://twitter.com/ttmygh/status/1289863271131086848

Bill and Grant welcome Russell Napier to The End Game to discuss the reasons behind the long-term disinflationist's recent decision to step off that train and prepare for the return of inflation.Using examples from the 1690s, 1930s and 1970s, Russell makes the case for inflation in the United States hitting 4% before the end of the year and explains why recent moves by the U.S. government to circumvent the Federal Reserve have changed the game dramatically and, potentially, bring The End Game much closer. Russell offers a primer on real financial repression and explains how dangerously different the world may look in the not-too-distant future. Strap yourself in - this is another head-spinning conversation.

Lots of the others are very good.

related https://twitter.com/blockbain/status/1287859725997084672 thread

Historical data suggests extreme inflation has already occurred and that we are all boiled frogs.

"FIRE EVERYBODY AND HIRE BRAZILIANS !!!" ... ROFL ...


"AND THE FISH TURNS TO THE OTHER FISH ... WTF IS WATER??" ... Amazing jokes!


^ edit for that:  "WTF IS MONEY??"

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Starting to creep back up after the big correction... currently $11430USD/$15345CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Onward and upward, but not too fast.

Go Bitcoin go.

Voted for cash out 51-60% but dont know what to do with that money. I dont want to hold fiat. And investing in anything else at the moment seems pretty high risk eg stocks, gold or real estate. Also I dont need or want to buy anything. I dont give a shit about Lambos or luxury. I left the capitalism crap years ago. Material things just give short term joy. Only thing that brings joy to my life is traveling. And that's impossible and will be for a long time I guess lol. Think I am depressed. Thanks deep state NWO assholes...

Then why sell half your coins? If you don't trust fiat, stocks, gold or real estate, why not keep your profits in Bitcoin?

I don't know why traveling is impossible for you but if that's what you want to do most, that's what you should be doing.

I hope you don't feel tied down by some silly little career/job.

[JayJuanGee]

Newest Update from Pentarudi aka Masterluc

"This is not more than 4 months prediction, as I spotted new bullish channel . According to my idea price may reach ATH area in 2 months with following some triangle-like consolidation. For EW lovers - I think price is in starting local III wave with all 3rd-wave-specific bullish drama around. Wave length is around 2 months."

Masterluc's prediction is a subset of my prior prediction, lol.
He probably cares about it to be accurate, so goes only 2-3 mo ahead.
I have no such qualms..see my post for truly wild numbers  
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg54897640#msg54897640

You are too bullish for your own good, Biodom.  




 

https://twitter.com/BlakePavey/status/1288818865846120449

Definitely, must-watch hilariousness (only 45 seconds of your life).

[Toxic2040]

#dyor  
4h


D


its all dip until $20k..keep stacking sats

#stronghands

[UnDerDoG81]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Starting to creep back up after the big correction... currently $11430USD/$15345CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Onward and upward, but not too fast.

Go Bitcoin go.

Voted for cash out 51-60% but dont know what to do with that money. I dont want to hold fiat. And investing in anything else at the moment seems pretty high risk eg stocks, gold or real estate. Also I dont need or want to buy anything. I dont give a shit about Lambos or luxury. I left the capitalism crap years ago. Material things just give short term joy. Only thing that brings joy to my life is traveling. And that's impossible and will be for a long time I guess lol. Think I am depressed. Thanks deep state NWO assholes...

Then why sell half your coins? If you don't trust fiat, stocks, gold or real estate, why not keep your profits in Bitcoin?

I don't know why traveling is impossible for you but if that's what you want to do most, that's what you should be doing.

I hope you don't feel tied down by some silly little career/job.

Thanks, thankfully I am free and can work from everywhere in the world. What I meant was they fucked up the world with this covid scam and it looks like they will play this game another year or two for whatever reasons. And that makes traveling impossible. Am a big Thailand/Asia fan but looks like they wont accept tourists for a longer time.

Why cash out? I hold since 2014 and want to get out of this 100% investment I did. I mean I am only invested in btc and who knows what happens after the next ATH. So would be cool to have some cash on the side if btc dies or whatever. People seriously believe these Rothschilds and Rockefellers would accept a crypto currency as an alternative to their fiat money? If it gets too powerful they will destroy it. I mean they own 99% of the worlds governments and media. Would be easy for them to somehow ban it and make a bad media campaign.

[Phil_S]

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Observing $11,472.

Things are looking good, we found strong support at around $10,500 when we dropped from just over $12,000. We’ve been slowly rising since we hit that supposed support. It’s looking good boys, who knows, maybe even $13,000’s by the end of this week with a bit of luck.

We ride together, we die together, WO HODLER’s Fo’ Lyf’

[JayJuanGee]

You should not be setting your ladder steps at round numbers,

Pish. I used to place my orders 'just off' from round numbers. Yes, they executed earlier. No, I found no evidence to suggest they executed more often than round number orders would have. Even if there were some minimal incremental benefit, that is outweighed by the PITA factor. At least for me.

I had to look up PITA, just to make sure that I understood the context of your apparent manufactured exasperation.

More simply put.  We can just agree to disagree on this angle.... even though I had thought that you had previously agreed on this technique... oh well, whatevers...   

prolly typo for MtGox

Never put anything past the picnic bear. 

Pish. Just plain Pish.

Hey picnic bear!!!!!!!!   Are you arguing with me on this important point?

[JayJuanGee]

[...]

Maybe we go back into 4 digits and maybe we get above €10k, and stay there?  Either way, life is good.    

Glad to have been here since before 2017 and rode the wave all the way through 2018, 2019 and the first half of 2020...

Bouncing around between $10,900-ish and $11,250-ish and not knowing for sure, which way she is going to break [...]


[...]


fuckers.

 

Gawd.... it is still hard to read your posts! But you have made progress !!!

Also you are wrong! ... We are going TO THE MOOOOONS !!!    
We breaking 20K before or around September 23.  

hahaahaha

look who the cat drug in.

Nice to see your dyslexic (and lacking of reading comprehension) lil selfie, back.  #nohomo

You should not be setting your ladder steps at round numbers,

[...] No, I found no evidence to suggest they executed more often than round number orders would have. Even if there were some minimal incremental benefit, [...] .

YOU KNOW NOTHING JiJiGee  !!! ... From the experience of many years trading, I've seen that people seem to have emotional attachments to numbers. ... Especially round ones, like for example: 4000... 5000... 20.000.... etc. !!!
I for example put trades like 4001 or 3999 or like 10 points ahead... like 4011 or 3989. They always get triggered.   

    Oh gawd.  Dyslexic knows about trading too?      Hory sheet.

[rdbase]

If Bitcoin breaks through $14,000 (its highest peak since ATH), then there's a very good chance that we'll shoot up to $20,000 over the next weeks (if not days).
The sell walls between $14,000 and $20,000 are extremely weak, and another strong bullish run could easily see them smashed.
As we can see by the recent influx of newly minted stablecoins (ala Tether, USD Coin, TrueUSD etc), there's definitely a bunch of new money moving into the market.
It's not just money being sucked from the shitcoinsaltcoins into Bitcoin, it's also a bunch of new retail investors getting into the market. This is what we need, and this is a large part of the reason why Bitcoin went stratospheric in 2017.
Hopefully it happens sooner rather than later—it would be incredible to see Bitcoin hit a new all-time high this year. I think $100,000 is a bit optimistic (even under the best case scenario), but $20k-$40k is definitely within the realms of possibility.

Big deal like this emerald to a minecrafter as being a big deal you mean?

Looks like me donning the shazam hat failed us by rejecting it's bullrun up to $12,000 with too much resistance.
Sorry I have failed you all this weekend on the WO guarding the wall.
I am disgraced.

[JayJuanGee]

This is a very bearish candle.



What is a Gravestone Doji?
A gravestone doji is a bearish reversal candlestick pattern that is formed when the open, low, and closing prices are all near each other with a long upper shadow. The long upper shadow suggests that the bullish advance in the beginning of the session was overcome by bears by the end of the session, which often comes just before a longer term bearish downtrend.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gravestone-doji.asp

Say it isn't so.

You are not getting ready to jump off of a bridge yet, Bossian?


Of course not.  Scammers tend to be delusional (or at least spread their bullshit**) until the end.  

**including but not limited to revising and respinning their historical baloney statements

[JimboToronto]

Then why sell half your coins? If you don't trust fiat, stocks, gold or real estate, why not keep your profits in Bitcoin?

I don't know why traveling is impossible for you but if that's what you want to do most, that's what you should be doing.

I hope you don't feel tied down by some silly little career/job.

Thanks, thankfully I am free and can work from everywhere in the world. What I meant was they fucked up the world with this covid scam and it looks like they will play this game another year or two for whatever reasons. And that makes traveling impossible. Am a big Thailand/Asia fan but looks like they wont accept tourists for a longer time.

Why cash out? I hold since 2014 and want to get out of this 100% investment I did. I mean I am only invested in btc and who knows what happens after the next ATH. So would be cool to have some cash on the side if btc dies or whatever. People seriously believe these Rothschilds and Rockefellers would accept a crypto currency as an alternative to their fiat money? If it gets too powerful they will destroy it. I mean they own 99% of the worlds governments and media. Would be easy for them to somehow ban it and make a bad media campaign.

Doh. Of course covid has crippled international travel. What was I thinking?

Then again, by the time this bull run peaks (near the end of 2021?), hopefully we'll have covid under control. There are tourism-dependent countries all around the world anxiously waiting for a chance to open up again.

As for the Rothschilds and Rockefellers destroying Bitcoin, let them try. They're already trying.

Make a bad media campaign?  Already happening. Ban Bitcoin? Tried that too. It doesn't work.

I'm also almost all in Bitcoin and I'm not worried. I buy and sell my coins face-to-face with real people, no companies, no machines.

The only way they can shut it down is by shutting down the internet and they depend on it too much themselves.

Don't worry.

[Last of the V8s]

where that thread gone?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

This is a very bearish candle.



What is a Gravestone Doji?
A gravestone doji is a bearish reversal candlestick pattern that is formed when the open, low, and closing prices are all near each other with a long upper shadow. The long upper shadow suggests that the bullish advance in the beginning of the session was overcome by bears by the end of the session, which often comes just before a longer term bearish downtrend.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gravestone-doji.asp

Bossian, get your 0.05BTC ready, you might even have to send it before we even get to 2021