Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Getting back to one of the recent mindrust proclamations (i.e. "no way to spend wealth these days"), travel can be a lot of fun, and some ways to both spend wealth and to have some good times with it, and of course some of the travel options have been hampered in recent times, and maybe we are wishing that travel hamperings are merely temporary?... because it would not be right and proper if the only way that some of us could really travel is to have our own private planes... and even having private planes kind of travel (and that level of wealth) could get hampered too if some of the regular joes are not able to come out of our current economic baloney with a bit of meaning in life (not saying that hookers, lambos and blow cannot bring some meaning to some of us)... but there continue to be public infrastructure matters that seem to be necessary for any kind of real comfort in enjoying some of the luxuries of any wealth system...

Oh shit.. does that mean some of us might have to share some of our wealth or even invest?  Fuck.

No way to spend wealth these days"? Even if that were somewhat true, because of coronathinggy I assume, one could always buy a fuck you all property to have all the freedom you want inside your OWN place and land and with your own rules.

Bleh, there will always be ways to spend wealth. Maybe MORE so in difficult times.

We are all worse off if an actual Armageddon situation were to strike, though.  So there are certain infrastructure failures, supply chain failures and lumpen proletariate scenarios that would not be preferred... not that I am necessarily agreeing with mindrust - but there are potential outlier scenarios in which some of us might not be able to enjoy our accumulated wealth including when previous concepts of private property that had been accumulated prior to "awokening" of the masses are overthown.

Make some sense.. except in ANY kind of situation, even if we are worse than before, we will always be better having some wealth than not having it... all other factors remaining equal.

Surely, I am not disagreeing with you in principle, and surely part of the great use cases of bitcoin remains the ability to privately secure it and to potentially plausibly deny the existence of it for practical and rights based reasons - not trying to get away with anything, but merely being able to retain wealth that you have stacked away.

There would also be some scenarios in which if someone were to have some kind of nice piece of property, let's say a reasonable 10 acres and great buildings and location, and then if that property gets taken away, then there would be some feelings of injustice with that I am sure... but we are likely on the same page that having various kinds of property and wealth does tend to give a lot more options, which probably explains some of the reasons why each of us have come to similar conclusions regarding our perceptions of values of having more options through the accumulation of king daddy.

It is not that in an armageddon wealth (which can be in many kind of assets, including those more necessary for survival) is unimportant. Of course you can probably have better lifestyle in ideal conditions even if not wealthy than in shitty circumstances even if wealthy (I have always said that Kings of the past probably had worse food available than any regular person nowadays)... but being wealthy will always be better than not.

Probably, we do not disagree, even though we might be quibbling about some various scenarios that could play out, and I think that part of the point that I had been trying to make earlier is that some of us might sometimes get so much caught up in various kinds of libertarian ideas that we forget that some of the values of having a state and community property of various sorts is that it provides a lot of value to everyone - and gives some course of recourse for the real poor.  If the real poor get too desperate, then we are all fucked.  Don't get me wrong; I can relate to being decently poor, but sometimes there can be way too much attempt to keep money from the poor or not to pay taxes from the rich or even that the rich might consider that they need little bail outs, and sure maybe we might feel that through bitcoin we had come across our riches (richness) through more honorable market means, but there still can be a lot of reasons to pay back and to pay into the system in a variety of ways in order that whatever riches that we might have been able to preserve do not get snuffed from us through some vengeance situations that might not even have been of our causing... but if we there are ways to pay into such system that allows for the ongoing building of infrastructure then we are likely to be more safe even if we have ways to hide or wealth or walls (and security guards) that we can attempt to put up between ourselves and the masses.

I don't think theres much to argue about that simple point. If Mindrust really wrote that statement, it is wrong.

I keep quoting it because it is not completely wrong - even though his employment of the statement was likely partly out of frustration and way too premature.. we might get at least one more cycle of being able to enjoy our wealth accumulation before a more true mad max situation ends up coming... and also, I will agree with you, bitserve, that it is way better to be preparing for the more likely scenarios rather than the mad max scenarios that have not happened yet... so in some sense, mindrust was just attempting to justify some of his impulsive behaviors (to the extent that we can really believe that he really did employ that level of dumb).

[1713570015]

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[1713570015]

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[xhomerx10]

Jesus!

https://www.coindesk.com/bitsonar-employee-kidnapped

 Not a good idea to telegraph your intentions.

[bitserve]

@Toxic2040 Congrats on your more than deserved Legendary status. Keep those charts coming!

[psycodad]

"I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible."

— Lord Kelvin, 1895

No source?

Source: New Scientist — 10 Impossibilities Conquered by Science

"Brute force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space".

-Bruce Schneier

"I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible."

— Lord Kelvin, 1895

Brute force, so checking every combination, makes some pretty easily verifiable claims.

If you build a supercomputer that occupies a space of only 1 cubic centimetre, that can brute force 1 trillion keys a second, and cover the entire earths surface with these computers, the Sun will swallow the Earth, before you have time to search the whole 256 bit key space.

I have also seen other calculations that information represented as its absolute minimum energy in the laws of physics, that there is not enough energy in the Sun to search a 256 bit key space either.

These numbers have nothing to do with the technology of the devices; they are the maximums that thermodynamics will allow. So these Laws of Thermodynamics will have to be broken first.

I would very much like to see the proof regarding the necessity of the Laws of Thermodynamics to be broken in order to brute force a 256-bit key. Is there any link of such proof? I'm a bit concerned about the use of energy to do the calculations.

<snip

Applied Cryptography (1996) by Bruce Schneier page 157 (I am looking at my 2nd edition here):

One of the consequences of the second law of thermodynamics is that a certain amount of energy is necessary to represent information. To record a single bit by changing the state of a system requires an amount of energy no less than kT, where T is the absolute temperature of the system and k is the Boltzman constant. (Stick with me; the physics lesson is almost over.)

Given that k = 1.38×10-16 erg/°Kelvin, and that the ambient temperature of the universe is 3.2°Kelvin, an ideal computer running at 3.2°K would consume 4.4×10-16 ergs every time it set or cleared a bit. To run a computer any colder than the cosmic background radiation would require extra energy to run a heat pump.

Now, the annual energy output of our sun is about 1.21×1041 ergs. This is enough to power about 2.7×1056 single bit changes on our ideal computer; enough state changes to put a 187-bit counter through all its values. If we built a Dyson sphere around the sun and captured all its energy for 32 years, without any loss, we could power a computer to count up to 2192. Of course, it wouldn't have the energy left over to perform any useful calculations with this counter.

But that's just one star, and a measly one at that. A typical supernova releases something like 1051 ergs. (About a hundred times as much energy would be released in the form of neutrinos, but let them go for now.) If all of this energy could be channeled into a single orgy of computation, a 219-bit counter could be cycled through all of its states.

These numbers have nothing to do with the technology of the devices; they are the maximums that thermodynamics will allow. And they strongly imply that brute-force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space.

He does quote this paragraph quite often, for example here: https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2009/09/the_doghouse_cr.html

[kurious]

Congratulations Toxic, about time..!

[El duderino_]

* BobLawblaw yawns and pisses in the general direction of ignored users

Wauw .... so I’m ignored as well...

Though it’s always wrong imo seeking somekind of attention with showing a list from the peeps someone is ignoring.

Feels like you’re hoping someone would add some text and ask some questions, but bob why? They are not bad or are they? Everything alright...??

I never use the ignore and if I would, then it’s just my thing and I wouldn’t be showing of for I don’t know or understand whatever the reason is....

I did very very much respected you as a WO member from the start .... but atm moment you’re going over the top for some reasons...

Still remember OG-long term-BTC’ers aren’t your enemy, you should embrace those with the same intrest and perspective...

Especially the oldtimers who knows BTC from low prices and are here for the long run and ethical reasons.

Then again, live your life and do how you thinks it’s alright....

Cheers anyway

[yefi]

"I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible."

— Lord Kelvin, 1895

No source?

Source: New Scientist — 10 Impossibilities Conquered by Science

Problem is that's not a source. There are plenty of famous misquotes that get bandied around, yet when we look for the actual origin, we're left empty-handed, e.g. "640k ought to be enough for anyone", "let them eat cake" etc.

[Karartma1]

Congratulations Toxic, about time..!

I second this! Well deserved! Keep the charts coming but don't forget the trains, rockets, spartans and such!
We need all this.

* BobLawblaw yawns and pisses in the general direction of ignored users

snip

Mic, it shall pass. Don't get upset 

[El duderino_]

Not upset.... people just amaze me from time to time....

Didn’t expect such from a fellow HODLer 

[yefi]

Applied Cryptography (1996) by Bruce Schneier page 157 (I am looking at my 2nd edition here):

One of the consequences of the second law of thermodynamics is that a certain amount of energy is necessary to represent information. To record a single bit by changing the state of a system requires an amount of energy no less than kT, where T is the absolute temperature of the system and k is the Boltzman constant. (Stick with me; the physics lesson is almost over.)

Given that k = 1.38×10-16 erg/°Kelvin, and that the ambient temperature of the universe is 3.2°Kelvin, an ideal computer running at 3.2°K would consume 4.4×10-16 ergs every time it set or cleared a bit. To run a computer any colder than the cosmic background radiation would require extra energy to run a heat pump.

Now, the annual energy output of our sun is about 1.21×1041 ergs. This is enough to power about 2.7×1056 single bit changes on our ideal computer; enough state changes to put a 187-bit counter through all its values. If we built a Dyson sphere around the sun and captured all its energy for 32 years, without any loss, we could power a computer to count up to 2192. Of course, it wouldn't have the energy left over to perform any useful calculations with this counter.

But that's just one star, and a measly one at that. A typical supernova releases something like 1051 ergs. (About a hundred times as much energy would be released in the form of neutrinos, but let them go for now.) If all of this energy could be channeled into a single orgy of computation, a 219-bit counter could be cycled through all of its states.

These numbers have nothing to do with the technology of the devices; they are the maximums that thermodynamics will allow. And they strongly imply that brute-force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space.

He does quote this paragraph quite often, for example here: https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2009/09/the_doghouse_cr.html

He's a little out on temperature, it's ~2.72 K. It's also worth noting that while Bitcoin has 256-bit long private keys, the security offered is only 128 bits where the public key is revealed or 160 bits where it is not.

That's still unbreakable for conventional computers of course. For perspective, a thermodynamically ideal computer in the nethermost region of space consuming the entire electricity output of the United States would take nearly two million years on average to crack a 160-bit secured UTXO. (2^160/(1.5e19/(2.725*1.380649e-23))/2

[fillippone]

EDIT: 63 WO pages to catch up... What did I miss?

Just to let you know I just finished filling the gap.
No WO post has been left behind.

[El duderino_]

EDIT: 63 WO pages to catch up... What did I miss?

Just to let you know I just finished filling the gap.
No WO post has been left behind.

Childplay.....

[Dabs]

I would very much like to see the proof regarding the necessity of the Laws of Thermodynamics to be broken in order to brute force a 256-bit key. Is there any link of such proof? I'm a bit concerned about the use of energy to do the calculations.

So yeah, something major will have to be broken, or some break-through in computing. The algo will get broken or aliens have this computer that can crack it.

Then of course, they have to be specifically targeting your one address. Is it a legacy address, is it segwit wrapped or native segwit, has it been spent from ... the number to brute force through all that is so astronomically large that even with any technology available today it would take millions of years.

Anything above a couple of decades is practically impossible. Anything that will take longer than a couple of years and it's much more easier to do the $5 wrench attack.

If they want to be covert about it, they would bug everything you have, install cameras everywhere (or access them), invade everything you do. If you created something like a darknet market called The Silk Road, then you are one such target worth some attention. Unless you are James Bond or Ethan Hunt or Jason Bourne, they will find you.

But then, if you're someone like any one of us here, who are complete nobodies in the grand scale of things, and everyone here had a boating accident or something, or we already got rekt ... what's the point, we are worthless to even talk about, no one is going after your paper wallets or cold storage.

If you have any attachments at all, they can use that too. You may not be willing to die for your bitcoins, but will you be willing to let someone else you love suffer for it?


For perspective:

According to estimates, in the middle of 2019 there were 46.8 million people worldwide whose assets exceeded one million USD, of which nearly 40% lived in the United States. The total net worth of all millionaires stood at US$158,261 billion.

Much easier to extort, kidnap, threaten, steal, mug, whatever ... one of them for the money.


On a similar topic, passwords randomly generated longer than 16 or 20 characters will take longer than your lifetime to crack through conventional methods. Much easier to wait for you right before you go inside your bank or ATM machine.

If you are protecting something behind 12 or 24 words ... I'm sure there is math there to show you that no one is going to guess it unless they are very lucky, got struck by lightning every day, or already won the mega millions super powerball lottery equivalent a few times over.

if an attacker knows that you are using a seven-word Diceware passphrase, and they pick seven random words from the Diceware word list to guess, there is a one in 1,719,070,799,748,422,591,028,658,176 chance that they’ll pick your passphrase each try.

At one trillion guesses per second — per Edward Snowden’s January 2013 warning — it would take an average of 27 million years to guess this passphrase.

[fillippone]

I would very much like to see the proof regarding the necessity of the Laws of Thermodynamics to be broken in order to brute force a 256-bit key. Is there any link of such proof? I'm a bit concerned about the use of energy to do the calculations.

<...>

I used that image on a thread of mine:
There are 2^256 private keys out there: how big is that number?
The tread explain how it is diffcult to brute force a number so big.

I would very much like to see the proof regarding the necessity of the Laws of Thermodynamics to be broken in order to brute force a 256-bit key. Is there any link of such proof? I'm a bit concerned about the use of energy to do the calculations.

No need to brute force: it is out there on keys.lol

[philipma1957]

As for cracking the 256 bit encoding it would be child's play if this was the matrix and we were being tricked into thinking 256 bit encoding was real.

It would also be easy to crack if  magic was real. Both are out of the box problem solves.

But given  the rules that we have it is not going to happen any time soon as both the matrix and Harry Potter are considered to be simple fiction.

[Toxic2040]

As for cracking the 256 bit encoding it would be child's play if this was the matrix and we were being tricked into thinking 256 bit encoding was real.

It would also be easy to crack if  magic was real. Both are out of the box problem solves.

But given  the rules that we have it is not going to happen any time soon as both the matrix and Harry Potter are considered to be simple fiction.

*gasp



---------

the early morning toe report

yep..its tingling..  #dyor

lancers at a walk..form a line!
4h


starling sings at sunrise
D

#stronghands

[BobLawblaw]

Observing a very nice and steady upward recovery, bouncing off ~$11.2k USD/BTC yesterday.

This one looks healthy and organic.

HODL strong, brothers.

[Dabs]

... both the matrix and Harry Potter are considered to be simple fiction.

If the matrix were real (having watched all 3 movies and 9 animatrix cartoon/anime), with Neo and Trinity both excellent hackers within the system, the technology there already existed for 128 bits to 256 bits of symmetric classical encryption. Using the technology within that matrix, 256 bits is still uncrackable. Trinity did use nmap ...

As for magic, it depends on the kind of magic. Still much easier to turn lead into gold than it is to come up with the private key. The trick would be to have some sort of all seeing eye, or a crystal ball, or something used to spy on you the whole time. Mind reading is also one such magic trick as would be telling the future.

Much easier to predict lotto results and do that (movie: paycheck).

It really depends on the kind of magic. Genie from Aladdin would also just make you a super rich prince and imprison all your enemies in the cave of wonders for 10k years.

I have not seen anything in any of the 7 Harry Potter movies (and the more recent spin off movies) to indicate they can crack 256 bit keys. More likely they protect their wealth through those troll creatures in the underground bank thing.

[Toxic2040]

@Toxic2040 Congrats on your more than deserved Legendary status. Keep those charts coming!

Congratulations Toxic, about time..!

ty gentlemen 

People like you make this place feel like home. I really appreciate that.

That pretty much goes for the rest of you knuckleheads..thank you.

Its been a hell of a ride so far and its only going to get better imho.

-----
for the rest of you a-holes out there on the fence..

Get in, stack sats, strap down and hang the fuck on is about the best advice I can give you besides do your own research.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Observing a very nice and steady upward recovery, bouncing off ~$11.2k USD/BTC yesterday.

This one looks healthy and organic.

HODL strong, brothers.

I’m really keen to see where the next break upwards takes us. I have a feeling we’ll see $13,000 before the end of September but please, nobody trade based on that. It’s just a gut feeling.