Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

Looks to me like the $1,000/btc and below price levels need more testing. I'm just telling ya'll the truth. I could see maybe bitcoin long term stable in the $200-$500 range after a lot of faffing about.

Scientifically confirmed.

[Hueristic]

Well I have written several times that anything above 10k is not sustainable. I know that I will get Negative reactions again but I will probably still be writing this the next few years.

Would you care to make a bet?

[aesma]

thinking of buying a bit, selling idea did not even cross my mind.
however, i think that you guys are wrong about the defi idea.

Mind you, the current crop is unimpressive, but so were excite, lycos and infoseek before google showed up in search.
Defi is inevitable, the question is only who the 1000 pound gorilla would be and which network would host it.
If you know of an app on btc that could do de-fi, speak out. There are some wallets, maybe Liquid, not much else (so far).
Cough-ethereum-cough is in the early lead, but it could be meaningless as we are talking about 4-7 bil out of 100 tril or so deployed there so far.
Plenty of time for btc to show its dominance in that area or leave it for some newcomer.
Eth cannot do defi because fees are too high, negating any reasonable tx, hence the recent crash.

Personally I have a problem with the mere concept of Defi. I don't see finance and decentralization going together. I see why it would attract some people, but I also see how governments are going to be all over it. I don't really see a use case either, but then again I live in a country where we don't have credit cards but debit ones. And there is no such thing as a credit score, or "refinancing", the less bank credits/mortgages you have the better.

[lightfoot]

I was going trough the old pages to catch up from a few months ago ! I got to say... I will miss those times! BUY ALL THE TOILET PAPER !!! haha!

If covid taught me one thing it's that bidets are godlike.

[savetherainforest]

I was going trough the old pages to catch up from a few months ago ! I got to say... I will miss those times! BUY ALL THE TOILET PAPER !!! haha!

If covid taught me one thing it's that bidets are godlike.

People should learn about hot towels & bidets.

edit: Price seems stable. I was looking for Corona confessions from the last few hundred pages.

[Biodom]

thinking of buying a bit, selling idea did not even cross my mind.
however, i think that you guys are wrong about the defi idea.

Mind you, the current crop is unimpressive, but so were excite, lycos and infoseek before google showed up in search.
Defi is inevitable, the question is only who the 1000 pound gorilla would be and which network would host it.
If you know of an app on btc that could do de-fi, speak out. There are some wallets, maybe Liquid, not much else (so far).
Cough-ethereum-cough is in the early lead, but it could be meaningless as we are talking about 4-7 bil out of 100 tril or so deployed there so far.
Plenty of time for btc to show its dominance in that area or leave it for some newcomer.
Eth cannot do defi because fees are too high, negating any reasonable tx, hence the recent crash.

Personally I have a problem with the mere concept of Defi. I don't see finance and decentralization going together. I see why it would attract some people, but I also see how governments are going to be all over it. I don't really see a use case either, but then again I live in a country where we don't have credit cards but debit ones. And there is no such thing as a credit score, or "refinancing", the less bank credits/mortgages you have the better.

defi (without idiotic 'yield farming') is just another term for automatic financing sans banks.
You have capital, you can lend it out on the blockchain that is able to employ smart contracts (be it at the core , in L2 or L3) and get interest.
Capital has to move, simple saving is insufficient for the advanced civilization to work.
Deployment could be automatic (on the blockchain like bitcoin) and highly effective.
Banks are less needed in defi world, hence no Cantillon effect and no pernicious brrr.
Poopooing defi will not be in bitcoin interest. Figuring out how to do it apart from essentially giving your coins to blockfi or Celsius and rely on their good graces might be important.
Governments have nothing to fear as taxing could be programmed in, if needed, not sure why they would be 'all over it'. They won't be, IMHO.
Why sell your btc when the time comes when you can use it more intelligently?

[savetherainforest]

Don't you worry there! There will be some kind of open war with China soon. India just conquered some chinese base. ... So... Patience my friend... patience!

[savetherainforest]

Guys I have been telling you since weeks, but I will reiterate again.

I will use Italian numbers, adjust downwards by the percentage you think it is correct because Italian population is old, Italians are not good at hospital or whatever reason you think it is correct, but the final reasoning do not change much:


As of today:

Code:

TOTAL INFECTED  17660  
DEATHS          1266   7.17%
RECOVERED       1439   
TOTAL POSITIVE  14955  
HOSPITALISED    7426   50%
ICU             1328   9%
RECOVERED       1439   

Here's the estimated worldwide numbers for the regular flu virus from October to today:

No. Percentages. How do they compare?

Goddamn idiot flubros.

I missed on a lot of good content!  ... Also a few days ago or something like that there was some kind of study or counting that the seasonal Flu has dropped 300-400 times or more in some parts of the world.  

[savetherainforest]

Keep calm and where's your hat?

Sorry about this issue, I just didn't wear my hat for a while because I was in a trial signature campaign, I will bring it as soon as this campaign ends, it will take about 4 weeks (this is first week). Sorry if I let you down  

 I was just trying to be funny.  I fully understand why people would rather make money Bitcoin than wear a silly hat.

AHAHAHA ... We 100% definitely need R0ach to say some random nazi sh!t about sh!tposters forcing sh!tposters to wear their nazi hats.

[Xinarae*]

Defi is inevitable

For those who actually use it for what it was intended, decentralized finance via crypto has been alive and well for a number of years. It doesn't need rebranding, new marketing, new tokens or a new blockchain. Those who need it seek it out and use it. Everyone else is just looking to make a quick buck on their backs.

Yes, To the point adding just think there are some people who only criticize but do not have enough knowledge or idea about cryptocurrency or bitcoin that is why they make bad comments about cryptocurrency or bitcoin, Since most people can't review these very well bad comments are the reason for their feelings. On the other hand since most of the time people have very little idea about cryptocurrency becomes very difficult to explain the whole thing to them.

However, it must be acknowledged that those who review the cryptocurrency must be very intelligent and use the cryptocurrency wisely. Cryptocurrency or Bitcoin is far ahead of all other digital currencies due to it's easy access to all other currencies.

[nullius]

Jay,

That veritable mini-book you wrote to me is much appreciated.  I spent a long time drafting a reply thereto—then, a longer time contemplating whether or not it reveals too much potentially identifying information.  Not in the way you may think—but it’s nevertheless a concern, and I am still thinking about that.  With apologies, for now, I’ll need to cut the main part, and leave only the tangent at the end:

I understand that even forum members who have been around a long time might not have completely left their BTC accumulation stage, so the three stages of long term investing are accumulation, maintenance and then liquidation, [...]

As a matter of thinking differently about goals, I posit that, unless a major expenditure is desired, there should be no “liquidation” phase for any asset with the fundamentals to constitute a long-term investment (as opposed to a short-term speculation).  Given your apparent familiarity with estate planning, you can probably guess why:  A goal of parlaying personal success into the intergenerational accumulation of familial wealth.

What is best left to one’s children?  Depreciating fiat currency?  Or a portfolio of gold, real estate, and nowadays, Bitcoin?  (I don’t consider stocks to be a “long-term” investment, unless either it is a large share of a privately held company under management personally known and trusted, or you have a Warren Buffet strategy with commensurate capital.)

Of course, such planning must assure insofar as practicable that one’s heirs are of a character to grow the wealth and pass it on, rather than irresponsibly dissipating it.  Now, there is a discussion which could delve deeply into the context of the rule against perpetuities—among many other topics:  The legal terms of devises cannot substitute for sound breeding and upraising.

A small anecdote:  Many years ago, I had an affair with a woman whose late father had devised significant assets to a trust with her as a beneficiary.  The trust was made to convey its assets to her when she was thirty-five years of age, on condition that she was married.  Obviously, the late gentleman must have desired some assurance that he would have grandchildren who would naturally benefit from their mother’s enrichment.  Well—she was past age thirty-five, married, independently wealthy thanks to papa, and—she didn’t want any children, ever!  In a sumptuous hotel bed that she paid for, she told me that she had never before cheated on her husband; take that for what it’s worth.

I would suggest that for having heirs worthy of the estate, the human element is much more important than legal concerns over the rule against perpetuities, etc.

[nullius]

Soooo...  Any insights on if/when/how we are getting decoupled from stocks, and (I hope) coupled to precious metals?

Not for a while. Not as long as we are up against the Musk ponzi and the mighty traders of Wall Street



Anyway a few recent coincidences do not a coupling make.

Taking that little tall tale of “wallstreetbets” at face value:^*

“20-something virgin”!?  20?  29?  Regardless, my takeaway from that story is that buying Tesla stock is for mental eunuchs with congenitally defective instincts.  If you can’t figure out how to communicate with females on a normal time scale, then perhaps you shouldn’t be bragging on the Internet about how you lied, scammed your mum for petty cash, gambled it, got lucky, and then decided to use the proceeds to hire a £300/hour therapist to help with your problem.  (Dear me, that girl should raise her rates if this is what she has to deal with.)

The whole story makes TSLA a STRONG SELL.  Are their cars (let’s call them Muskmobiles) also for sexually inadequate losers who scam their own mothers to get laid?

* Of course, parts of the story are implausible (5-star penthouse suite for “£150 per night”?).  But who cares?  That is not the point.

All the enemy's traders do now is accumulate and pump/suppress prices to grab up the mindrust coins and Robinhood traderz shares.

Poor mindrust.  He never got back in, did he?

Meanwhile the Wuille mammoth is a slow beast, taproot and its associated knobs and gadgets are taking for fucking ever, so I don't expect us to shoot much ahead of Tesla or gold this time round, or for very long.

Well, they deliver us something better than Ethland-style “move fast and break things”.

There is still significant technical work being done on the relevant BIPs, although IIUC, they are almost done.  I expect for the real slowdown to be getting it activated—not (I hope) any nonsense as with Segwit v0, since all the anti-Segwit crowd has been shaken out to forked shitcoins; and fortunately, Segwit’s versioning system was designed to make these upgrades smooth from v0 all the way up to v15.  It’s just slow to get even softfork changes running live on a currency network that doesn’t move fast and break things.

[savetherainforest]

All this dolphin "Defi" nonsense just makes me get a mental block and all I can think is:




.... ROFL !!!

[Hueristic]

AHAHAHA ... We 100% definitely need R0ach to say some random nazi sh!t about sh!tposters forcing sh!tposters to wear their nazi hats.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKneUFwVkXI

Close?

[Biodom]

Jay,

That veritable mini-book you wrote to me is much appreciated.  I spent a long time drafting a reply thereto—then, a longer time contemplating whether or not it reveals too much potentially identifying information.  Not in the way you may think—but it’s nevertheless a concern, and I am still thinking about that.  With apologies, for now, I’ll need to cut the main part, and leave only the tangent at the end:

I understand that even forum members who have been around a long time might not have completely left their BTC accumulation stage, so the three stages of long term investing are accumulation, maintenance and then liquidation, [...]

As a matter of thinking differently about goals, I posit that, unless a major expenditure is desired, there should be no “liquidation” phase for any asset with the fundamentals to constitute a long-term investment (as opposed to a short-term speculation).  Given your apparent familiarity with estate planning, you can probably guess why:  A goal of parlaying personal success into the intergenerational accumulation of familial wealth.

What is best left to one’s children?  Depreciating fiat currency?  Or a portfolio of gold, real estate, and nowadays, Bitcoin?  (I don’t consider stocks to be a “long-term” investment, unless either it is a large share of a privately held company under management personally known and trusted, or you have a Warren Buffet strategy with commensurate capital.)

Of course, such planning must assure insofar as practicable that one’s heirs are of a character to grow the wealth and pass it on, rather than irresponsibly dissipating it.  Now, there is a discussion which could delve deeply into the context of the rule against perpetuities—among many other topics:  The legal terms of devises cannot substitute for sound breeding and upraising.

A small anecdote:  Many years ago, I had an affair with a woman whose late father had devised significant assets to a trust with her as a beneficiary.  The trust was made to convey its assets to her when she was thirty-five years of age, on condition that she was married.  Obviously, the late gentleman must have desired some assurance that he would have grandchildren who would naturally benefit from their mother’s enrichment.  Well—she was past age thirty-five, married, independently wealthy thanks to papa, and—she didn’t want any children, ever!  In a sumptuous hotel bed that she paid for, she told me that she had never before cheated on her husband; take that for what it’s worth.

I would suggest that for having heirs worthy of the estate, the human element is much more important than legal concerns over the rule against perpetuities, etc.

Exactly... and we would need to have some way of using our assets (btc) in the future without selling them.
I predict that there will be a huge industry helping those with btc achieve just that.
Additionally, very rich today rarely sell their assets as there are many ways to profit without selling.
BTW, aren't South Dakota trusts able to overcome 'no perpetuity' clause?
Personally, I am not really into it.

[d_eddie]

Perhaps your right, perhaps not, but in the end i dont really care if you believe me or not, its your choice

In these here parts we often have it as "If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry".

[Vectra]

needs to go lower, we're not able to push from here

[jbreher]

Most altcoins dipped significantly harder than bitcoin today.

EDIT:
turns out roughly in +1% market dominance.

I don't even see BSv in top 10 on CMC someone should check on the jbreher

...because...?

(incidentally, it is currently at (an admittedly embarrassing) #9 )

[jbreher]

Most altcoins dipped significantly harder than bitcoin today.

EDIT:
turns out roughly in +1% market dominance.

I don't even see BSv in top 10 on CMC someone should check on the jbreher

Market going down very badly and just 4 coins in green from top 50 BSv is sliping badly.

Yup. In the past 24 hours, it is only up 4.16% compared to BTC.

(full disclosure - it's down 3.47% against BTC in the last seven days.)

(some days are good, some days less so)

[jbreher]

I know an investment banker that simply buys and sells three to four million a day in bonds.

if there was one bond that entire industry would fail.

And we should care, because ... ? Why? Exactly?
Boo hoo - poor banker will need to find another source of work that actually advances things for others, rather than parasiting doing nothing but moving imaginary bookkeeping entries around.

Sorry, just calling it as I see it.

Wont work will cause stillness entropy and stagnation.

Might not work for the pinstripe bandit class, but all that financialization does exactly nothing productive for people who work for a living.