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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26465840 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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September 09, 2020, 02:19:51 AM

Adapted from amidst a longer compound reply to Jay and explorer, which I may or may not have time to finish:

Not investing more than you can afford to lose helps (which might be another way of saying willingness to ride the investment to zero).

Have you ever seen anybody say, “Don’t put more money into dollars than you can afford to lose”?  (They should, but that’s not the point.)  Bitcoin cannot claim to be sound money, when it is marketed under this disclaimer.

Whereas Bitcoin’s only fundamental value is as money.  If it’s not sound money, then why bother?


That's goofy-talk.

We do not go from less than 1% bitcoin adoption to world reserve currency status overnight.

If you want to invest 100% into bitcoin or take some other non-practical approach to bitcoin, then that is your choice.. you are likely going to get screwed here and there, because there are a variety of other assets and frequently it is helpful to be able to have other things that you are able to spend (such as fiat or various other ways of not having all your eggs in one volatile asset.   

I think it is better to go first steps first, which is get nocoiners off of zero, first.  99% of the world population owns absolutely no bitcoin.

You can make a shit ton of money by just having 10% of your value into bitcoin.

I see no reason to be attempting to push these matters onto people if they are not ready...

either they get it or they don't and the ones of us who recognize the matter of the value of bitcoin earlier are going to profit stupendously because we were able to see the value in bitcoin first and to act in the right direction, and we were also able to invest into it, before some of the dying dinosaurs like warren buffet or charles munger were able to recognize or appreciate the value...

We also saw the value in bitcoin instead of getting distracted by shitcoins.  A lot of folks are going to get distracted into shitcoins, and how you going to change that? I say, just let them fucking learn the hard way, just like a lot of us did.  They are NOT all of a sudden going to be bitcoin enlightened by having it forced upon them..  but they will eventually come to bitcoin, even if it takes one or two generation before the recognize the value of bitcoin over the various snakeoils that you are not going to stop.. and we do not even have the power to stop such snake oils whether we are referring to various shitcoins or various fiats and whatever other various other currency "innovations" that come in the coming years.
 



Long term conviction helps.

I state the foregoing from a position of real long-term conviction:  If Bitcoin were to crash to zero, I would literally lack food.  I am effectually “all in” with Bitcoin, for ideological rather than financial reasons;

Personally, I do not agree with that approach.  Bitcoin allows us to commit to it, ideologically, and to live well at the same time.  It is one of those rare opportunities in life, and a lot of people have become rich as fuck by only having a reasonable amount in bitcoin and also having cash, too.

You are going to come off as a crazy fuck, if you are not somewhat allocated in cash too, and you also likely make yourself a target... but, hey, if you want to make yourself a target, that is up to you.

I am saying that there is no reason to die for the cause because you can get rich and you can support bitcoin.. no need to die for the cause, here.. unless you are merely suicidal (but that is not necessary.. as I already mentioned).

and yet, some of the replies that I am getting here, especially what explorer said, are a little bit too close to “you don’t believe hard enough”.  

You do not need to convince any of us.

You should be protecting yourself though because none of us (or other random peeps on the internet) give any shits about you as much as you should be protecting yourself, psychologically and financially.


It’s the kind of thing that draws mutters from rational people about a “cult-like mentality”, etc.

Yes.  People are going to consider you a weirdo... It is much easier to get along in society by being able to communicate with others and to build bonds rather than appearing like a weirdo.

So there is a need for balance.  So if you go out on a date, it is good to have money in order that you can eat the steak dinner and to be able to convince the chick to come back to your pad.

 Well, I do have a Bitcult; but when it comes to serious discussion of Bitcoin’s fundamentals and long-term prospects, I neither drink Kool-Aid, nor hand it out.

Ultimately, it is your choice regarding what level of balance you believe is good for you and what works for you to be able to achieve your personal objectives.

Personally, I think that it is better to have some balance.  If you are earning income in fiat, then you figure out what level of balancer that you need to have in fiat and what level in bitcoin.

If you are earning in bitcoin, then you may have to cash into fiat from time to time.  No one should be forced to be cashing out of either one at a time that is not of their own choosing but if you have everything in bitcoin, then you are likely going to be causing your own emergency situations, unless you have figure out every single place to go to be able to spend your BTC for housing, utilities, food, transportation, entertainment (and hookers, lambos and blow).  Even if you are moderate with your consumption, you still likely having regular living needs that cause regular expenses.

If you do not have that, then maybe you need to explain your situation a bit better... because we should be attempt to discuss these bitcoin balancing matters in generally applicable ways for normies rather than fanatical ways or ways that are quite peculiar to some kinds of weird situations, in my humble bumble opinion. 
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September 09, 2020, 02:24:36 AM

https://mailchi.mp/83fd6ed702f3/martys-bent-september-8th-2020-819

Quote
For those who need a refresher, DLCs allow two or more parties to enter into a smart contract agreement regarding a future event. In the case of Nicolas and Chris, they are betting about the outcome of the US Election this year. However, they could have bet on the price of bitcoin on the same date, the outcome of an NBA game later this week, or the temperature in Boise next Wednesday at noon local time. The two construct multiple transactions that decide where the funds are sent; in this case there is a transaction that sends the funds to Chris and another that sends them to Nicolas depending on the outcome of the election. The movement of funds within the DLC is dependent on a signature from an Oracle that confirms the outcome of the event once it happens. The Oracle has no idea who is using their signature to execute DLCs unless users publicly state that they are. This allows individuals to make bets in private and for anyone who is so inclined to use a particular Oracle's signature. One signature for millions of bets is possible. Making DLCs scalable to the masses.

possibly the first one in the wild

That could be one way to have natively bitcoin-based DeFi, possibly on the Lightning Network. More of this is coming our way.
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September 09, 2020, 02:25:09 AM
Last edit: September 09, 2020, 02:41:19 AM by jbreher

The name should be changed to tangle.

From here on out, tangle should be the correct nomenclature for that formerly known as chain.

Unfortunately, the term 'tangle' is already understood to apply to an alternate crypto token database design that has no resemblance to a blockchain whatsoever.

You really think that Jay didn’t know this?

I really don't know. I rather expect that JJG had no idea that 'tangle' refers to an alternative database structure as the basis of several altcoins. Why don't you ask him/her directly?
JayJuanGee
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September 09, 2020, 02:46:13 AM

The name should be changed to tangle.

From here on out, tangle should be the correct nomenclature for that formerly known as chain.

Unfortunately, the term 'tangle' is already understood to apply to an alternate crypto token database design that has no resemblance to a blockchain whatsoever.

You really think that Jay didn’t know this?

I really don't know. I rather expect that JJG had no idea that 'tangle' refers to an alternative database structure as the basis of several altcoins. Why don't you ask him/her them* directly?

*alternatively "it"


FTFY
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September 09, 2020, 02:51:55 AM

We have gembitz and Proudhon posting. I think we can reasonably assume we're near the bottom. I would need to see r0ach posting to confirm.


Did I make it moon yet?

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Cockroach drinking honeydew from rear end of a planthopper (Pyrops connectens). Khao Sok National Park, Thailand. [source]


No.

+1 WOsMerit however

------

a late night wall report

oh well..its Tuesday..what did you expect? 


coyote yips before dawn
D


the battle for five digits continues with weekly resistance high above at $10.45kish and support rising from low cloud cover at around $8.8k to $9k     #dyor
W

#stronghands
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September 09, 2020, 02:55:46 AM
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nullius
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September 09, 2020, 03:30:42 AM
Last edit: September 09, 2020, 04:11:43 AM by nullius

You are going to come off as a crazy fuck,

Heh.  Not the first time I’ve gotten that.  But then, I agree with this:

It is no measure of health to be well-adjusted to a profoundly sick society.

How’s this for what, from your perspective, Jay, would be a “crazy fuck”:  I have at various times spent several portions of my adult life voluntarily “unbanked”.  Cash-only.  On principle, because I hate the banks and I do not wish to associate with them, much less to depend on them.  Do I not have a right to choose not to have a goddamn bank account?  Yes, they have made it exceedingly difficult to live this way.

(And here, I was nearly drawn into professional finance as a lad... it’s been a long road...)

Bitcoin allows us to commit to it, ideologically, and to live well at the same time. [...]

I am saying that there is no reason to die for the cause because you can get rich and you can support bitcoin.. no need to die for the cause, here.. unless you are merely suicidal (but that is not necessary.. as I already mentioned).

Yes, I wish that with my current level of life experience, I could go back in time and tell my younger self some more general version of this—not only about Bitcoin!  I have consistently screwed myself over this way.  Much of that thing I didn’t post a few days ago had to do with that.

Quote from: nullius (DRAFT)
Most naïve youths lose their characteristic idealism in the moment that they catch the scent of money; I didn’t.  Instead of being pulled into the system, I went against it...  I sincerely never cared about money, until intense personal hardship beat into me the importance of having some; and at that point, it was too late to go back and spend wasted years differently.

As for the rest:  I see that you and I have some fundamental disagreements about economics.  It will take some thought to communicate my position sensibly in the context.  Meanwhile, I’ll just toss out the foregoing with the idle thought that it may help some idealist:  Make money.  Don’t stick your nose up at it:  “Generals think logistics”, and you can only paralyse yourself by lacking resources.  If you would get corrupted in the process of making money, then your precious principles are anyway too weak to sustain the hardships that you will undoubtedly endure for want of money.  Trust me, I know the cost.



I really don't know. I rather expect that JJG had no idea that 'tangle' refers to an alternative database structure as the basis of several altcoins. Why don't you ask him/her directly?

Hmmm...  Because to anyone who is not totally stupid, it’s obvious that he they/it [sorry, Jay, for offensive use of correct pronouns] knows?

Any other brilliant questions?

Given this level of incomprehension, it may not actually be incomprehensible for someone to misunderstand what will happen if miners try to steal Segwit coins.
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September 09, 2020, 04:49:31 AM

You are going to come off as a crazy fuck,

Heh.  Not the first time I’ve gotten that.  But then, I agree with this:

It is no measure of health to be well-adjusted to a profoundly sick society.

How’s this for what, from your perspective, Jay, would be a “crazy fuck”:  I have at various times spent several portions of my adult life voluntarily “unbanked”.  Cash-only.  On principle, because I hate the banks and I do not wish to associate with them, much less to depend on them.  Do I not have a right to choose not to have a goddamn bank account?  Yes, they have made it exceedingly difficult to live this way.

Well, maybe I have been being too harsh on you?


I am largely trying to figure out what regular people should be doing, and maybe I am presuming too much about people in the west with banking and credit.

We know that it is already more difficult to do anything if you do not have credit or banking, so maybe if you are already living in a situation in which you do not have those kinds of things, then you are not going to have other potentially quasi-liquid investments, such as 401ks, either.

I would recognize, too that it could be more difficult to store value in cash, and maybe some of the people in that kind of situation might historically store value in PMs such as gold or have other ways to store value, such as property.. but then not very liquid.

So surely if you already have been going through a lot of the inconveniences of no banking, then bitcoin largely provides more options rather than less options.  I may be merely presuming too much regarding prior existing avenues to store value.

I hate to concede that I might be guilty, but I will say that I do not proclaim to be such a stickler for anyone who is getting into bitcoin needs to have other assets but having other assets tends to be one of the individualistic factors that needs to be considered in terms of how much to allocate into bitcoin.

I do also like to suggest that if someone is new to investing or just starting investing, then frequently, they will start with one asset rather than being concerned about diversification or reallocation.  Diversification and reallocation will usually come after some period of time that assets might be built in one or more assets and when the person starts to become too allocated in one asset... so surely in some circumstances, there may be needs to start out investing into bitcoin first...

Maybe we are getting to much into individual peculiarities, and surely in a thread like this it would seem to be preferable to speak to situations that can be more broadly applied... because when we get into the nitty gritty of individual circumstances, there can be a lot of variation, and those, again, are cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline, and time, skills and ability to manage portfolio, learn, trade, tweak from time to time.  Many times we are going to talk about those factors more generally as matters that each individual has to attempt to take into account when figuring out and implementing his approach to BTC and strategies.



(And here, I was nearly drawn into professional finance as a lad... it’s been a long road...)

Well, maybe you have whole systems that are different from the way that I think about some of these matters.

Are you suggesting that we should all attempt to take your approach, or what?


Bitcoin allows us to commit to it, ideologically, and to live well at the same time. [...]

I am saying that there is no reason to die for the cause because you can get rich and you can support bitcoin.. no need to die for the cause, here.. unless you are merely suicidal (but that is not necessary.. as I already mentioned).

Yes, I wish that with my current level of life experience, I could go back in time and tell my younger self some more general version of this—not only about Bitcoin!  I have consistently screwed myself over this way.  Much of that thing I didn’t post a few days ago had to do with that.

Well, we cannot go back in time, but we can attempt to figure out if there are some adjustments that we should be making currently.

I feel a bit spoiled in my own situation; however, i still think that the approach that i have taken through my whole life has a lot of decent qualities, and still can be applied to other people.  I am not trying to impose any of my system on other people, but just to share some ideas that might be helpful in order that other members can better help themselves or to better think through ways to tweak their own practices.

We have had a lot of members disclose that they have had to cash some BTC at a time that is not of their own choosing or some other seeming calamities like that, and even though i have had pretty decent cashflow, i have even had times that cashflow can become quite tight, and usually it seems to be worse if we are in long periods of BTC correction - or even take that quick flash crash of March 12, 2020... there were a lot of BIG bitcoin holders who got fucked in that situation because they were not playing their cards right.  I am not just referring to mindrust, but there were some hedge funds that went under from smart bitcoin maximalists like this Murad Muhmudov, and I am thinking that a few others had really got screwed out of that quickie crash situation.

I think that part of my point is that we should be attempting to protect ourselves for both upwards and downards and sideways bitcoin price movements, and of course, some of this will have to do with attempting to make sure that we are hedged.

I don't want to be over leveraged in any asset, whether we are talking about the dollar or even bitcoin.  The dollar can serve as a safehaven in regards to our bitcoin investment, though when bitcoin does an outrageous crash, whether it is a quickie crash or a prolonged one... but of course, that does not necessarily mean that I would be in love with the dollar, even if i might keep a certain percentage of my wealth in dollars, for short term living expenses and also, just in case bitcoin crashes, then maybe I want to buy some more or just have the dollars in case bitcoin keeps on crashing even further... I would prefer NOT to be stuck with no assets if BTC were to go to zero, merely because I failed and refused to hedge, when previously I had been living pretty good and then all of a sudden I cannot even eat, lodge myself or other things that are in the lifestyle that i have grown accustomed.

Quote from: nullius (DRAFT)
Most naïve youths lose their characteristic idealism in the moment that they catch the scent of money; I didn’t.  Instead of being pulled into the system, I went against it...  I sincerely never cared about money, until intense personal hardship beat into me the importance of having some; and at that point, it was too late to go back and spend wasted years differently.

I probably had some similar dynamics in my life.  Seems to me that I never really pursued money, but sometime soon after I had left highschool, I attended a course that taught personal finance matters, and I recall that through my life, I had always striven to live within my means, so I always had a decent percentage of my income that I had saved - even though I can recall periods of time in which I was not making very much money, but I still saved a percentage of my income. Many times I tried to target at least 10% savings, even though i know sometimes I might not have reached that exactly.  

For a period of time, I did have some fortune of having some decently high paying work, which caused me to be able to save something like 60% of the pay for a period of time - a bit ridiculous but I was getting paid way more than my living expenses.. and that savings from that job likely generated a decent amount of the value that I was later able to put into bitcoin (or at least the freedom to put large sums into bitcoin, because I was otherwise set in terms of the rest of my finances.. .. which again i consider that relatively high pay to have been moreso luck rather than something that i was specifically pursuing).

So, actually, I probably have some similar errors in my ways in that there were a decent number of years that I did not really pursue making a lot of money.. just living within my means, but my means could have been higher if I had made more money during some of those years.

As for the rest:  I see that you and I have some fundamental disagreements about economics.  

O.k.  Perhaps.

It will take some thought to communicate my position sensibly in the context.  

That might be helpful to point out the area of disagreement, if there is something besides my suggestion that one should not be 100% BTC, unless there is some quirky personal situation rationale for such.  

Meanwhile, I’ll just toss out the foregoing with the idle thought that it may help some idealist:  Make money.  Don’t stick your nose up at it:  “Generals think logistics”, and you can only paralyse yourself by lacking resources.  If you get corrupted in the process of making money, then your precious principles are anyway too weak to sustain the hardships that you will undoubtedly endure for want of money.  Trust me, I know.

Cannot really disagree with that part.  Some amount of financial cushion does seem like a good thing to have.



I really don't know. I rather expect that JJG had no idea that 'tangle' refers to an alternative database structure as the basis of several altcoins. Why don't you ask him/her directly?

Hmmm...  Because to anyone who is not totally stupid, it’s obvious that he they/it [sorry, Jay, for offensive use of correct pronouns] knows?

Any other brilliant questions?

Given this level of incomprehension, it may not actually be incomprehensible for someone to misunderstand what will happen if miners try to steal Segwit coins.

Jbreher does seem to have a tendency to want to overly convolute matters, even though every once in a while he does make some decent points... When he gets ornery and if he is trying to defend BIG blocks or one of the bcashes, he does devolve into more tanglingtm and danglingtm nonsense, though... which the vast majority of us here do seem to recognize that angle of the picnic bear.
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September 09, 2020, 05:02:16 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

What JJG is saying nullius is that Bitcoin is an inelastic good (which did not exist before!). You can’t produce more to compensate for an increase in demand, or produce less when demand declines. Therefore not having bubbles or being stable at $10k is just wishful thinking at its current level of adoption.
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September 09, 2020, 06:16:17 AM
Merited by Phil_S (1)

Many look at the BTC price and doubt it's a hedge. High net worth individuals and funds certainly consider it to be true and betting on that with real money.

Since this latest round of USD money supply expansion, whales entities have increased their holdings of BTC markedly.

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1303227612446117889?s=21
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September 09, 2020, 07:37:50 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

@JJG/nullius
I am not going to argue with you guys. You completely misread my quote
Quote
It is no measure of health to be well-adjusted to a profoundly sick society.
. I was referring to those jokes related to gender and such.
You guys are becoming a black hole. Cool

What JJG is saying nullius is that Bitcoin is an inelastic good (which did not exist before!). You can’t produce more to compensate for an increase in demand, or produce less when demand declines. Therefore not having bubbles or being stable at $10k is just wishful thinking at its current level of adoption.
Thank you bitebits! Cheesy
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September 09, 2020, 08:19:22 AM

The run to ATH has started

Continues
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September 09, 2020, 08:38:50 AM

Analyst Gives 3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Could Bounce Back from $10K

https://thebitcoinnews.com/analyst-gives-3-reasons-why-bitcoin-could-bounce-back-from-10k/
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September 09, 2020, 08:40:46 AM


I admit my first reaction was to check if it's some parody twitter account.

Turns out it's real.

 Grin
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September 09, 2020, 09:00:48 AM

Turns out it's real.

It's real (see discussion on btalk) and it's a follow up of the story where Peter Schiff publishes his son's Bitcoin wallet.

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September 09, 2020, 09:14:12 AM
Merited by NeuroticFish (1), Torque (1)


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September 09, 2020, 10:01:54 AM

Now we wait .. until #bitcoin  and S&P500 move up TOGETHER



https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1303634146527514624?s=21
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September 09, 2020, 10:09:05 AM
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https://twitter.com/luchopoletti/status/1303366711404625923?s=21

^cool  Cheesy
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September 09, 2020, 11:08:37 AM

$10,000 holding strong, give up bears, resistance is futile.

$13,000 coming soon......
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September 09, 2020, 12:09:03 PM



Coinfirmed.
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