Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[machasm]

This correlation with legacy markets is god damn annoying. I don't even need to check the Bitcoin price any more, just check nasdaq, s&p, gold.

When is supply finally going to be overrun so that we can decouple from this bullshit.

Yeah I feel you brother.
What worries me is that if investors are getting into bitcoin (which seems to be the case with recent news such as Tudor Jones et al), why are they doing so?
Is it as a hedge against the current financial system or are they just seeing it as another plaything designed to trade against to build up even more $.
The way bitcoin seems to be correlating with the stock markets recently makes me believe that it is the latter.
If they believe that bitcoin is the Ark against the impending flood caused by the financial crash then I believe that the correlation to the stock market should be inversely proportional.

Maybe they just need time to wake up to that fact?

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[somac.]

This correlation with legacy markets is god damn annoying. I don't even need to check the Bitcoin price any more, just check nasdaq, s&p, gold.

When is supply finally going to be overrun so that we can decouple from this bullshit.

Yeah I feel you brother.
What worries me is that if investors are getting into bitcoin (which seems to be the case with recent news such as Tudor Jones et al), why are they doing so?
Is it as a hedge against the current financial system or are they just seeing it as another plaything designed to trade against to build up even more $.
The way bitcoin seems to be correlating with the stock markets recently makes me believe that it is the latter.
If they believe that bitcoin is the Ark against the impending flood caused by the financial crash then I believe that the correlation to the stock market should be inversely proportional.

Maybe they just need time to wake up to that fact?

Well I am seeing charts showing that percentage coins hodled are at all time highs, so I think it must at least be some of each type of investor.

I'm sure that eventually buyers will overwhelm the supply, and large investors will be a part of this, but my god it is taking a long time. I mean, with the amount of fraud, corruption, poor governance, and so on, it blows my mind that we aren't higher. Bitcoin is literally the only way to preserve your wealth from those things I mentioned and more, yet people still aren't rushing in.

Imagine if Bitcoin was around prior to the war, would the price of it have gone up as the Jews and other persecuted groups wanted to preserve and flee with their wealth. Or would it have just done nothing like it is now and linking itself to the corrupt legacy markets. When it comes to your wealth, the CBs and Govs right now are as bad as the NAZIs and it seems people are just happy to give everything to them. It's nuts.



 

[qwizzie]

I wonder if this is one of those attempts to close the CME Bitcoin futures gap (currently at $9,600 and expires the last friday of the contract month --> 25th of September 2020)

[somac.]

I wonder if this is one of those attempts to close the CME Bitcoin futures gap (currently at $9,600 and expires the last friday of the contract month --> 25th of September 2020)

I really hope not, I never want to see 9000s again.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good afternoon WO!
Observing @ $10,550

May be it's not fun for some but it is time to HODL! They are saying bitcoin might break $10,400 support. F them!

[machasm]

Maybe it's not as bad as it looks?
Is there enough liquidity on these exchanges to soak up relatively medium sized dumps?
(I probably don't know what I am talking about here so please let me know if I am screwing up, just thinking out loud really).
So the question is even though there may be demand how many bitcoins need to be dumped to move the market by $500 or so?
Maybe now with the value of Bitcoin being what it is, we don't need too many dumped before we feel an impact?
So even a small to medium dump will result in quite a significant fall in price?
This leads to the next question.
Will there ever come a point that dumping 1000 BTC onto the open market doesn't have a significant impact on,price?

[Cryptotourist]

OK my brothers, this is where we hodl them, this is where we fight. This is where $10k dies.

[strawbs]

This correlation with legacy markets is god damn annoying. I don't even need to check the Bitcoin price any more, just check nasdaq, s&p, gold.

When is supply finally going to be overrun so that we can decouple from this bullshit.

Yup, it certainly is a little tiresome. It used to be interesting to try to find a reason for a sudden drop or rise, trawling through various outlets to see which theories were most likely. And entertaining to read some of the more far-fetched and grasping theories. But now, as you say, it's nearly always tied to the S&P et al.

[cAPSLOCK]

Presented with no comment:

On track...  This weekend I think:

Hmm.  We did not quite come up as far as I had hoped before the next dip... The right shoulder looks a little sad and hunched, but let's see if this is the right shoulder...

[ivomm]

Maybe it's not as bad as it looks?
Is there enough liquidity on these exchanges to soak up relatively medium sized dumps?
(I probably don't know what I am talking about here so please let me know if I am screwing up, just thinking out loud really).
So the question is even though there may be demand how many bitcoins need to be dumped to move the market by $500 or so?
Maybe now with the value of Bitcoin being what it is, we don't need too many dumped before we feel an impact?
So even a small to medium dump will result in quite a significant fall in price?
This leads to the next question.
Will there ever come a point that dumping 1000 BTC onto the open market doesn't have a significant impact on,price?

It depends how and where the dump takes place. If we are talking about OTC dump, this sum won't affect the price. OTC desks sell regularly small amounts and not below the negotiated price. I doubt even 10K-50K BTC would affect the price with such selling. If we are talking about a whale-manipulator, then we should check the Bitstamp order book. This exchange is the least liquid, so if there are any manipulations, we should expect them there. Currently 747 BTC have to be sold to lower the price to 10290. How this will work out for a whale is another question. Playing with Bitmex or any other futures exchange is a bit tricky  and there is a big chance of something to go wrong. If for example he opens a big leverage short position but the exchange is down or some other whale buys and recovers the price, then the loss will be tremendous. So I personally don't believe there are any such manipulations recently.

But we have another problem, which is the main cause of these recent drops. The problem is called Binance and its high frequency trading. The volume of this exchange is 5 times bigger than the next exchange Coinbase. There are too many weak hands there - addicted losers, who easily register losses until there is nothing left to lose. We make fun of those n00bs who buy high and sell low, but there are a lot of them, like the casinos full of lost souls. During the long 9K sideways, we can sum up the total percentage of price drops. It is quite close to 100% (not to mention the high leverage longs liquidated much earlier). Hence, we can easily deduct that these extremely weak hands lost their capital and when the real pump started, they were nowhere around to stop it. Remember, these guys are addicted, so they invested new fiat between 11K and 12K, and now we are counting their totall losses again. It is getting near to 100% again, so we can expect a new big pump in the coming weeks.

[xhomerx10]

Things aren't going well when you have to write I Don't Do Kids on your forehead

 Yeah that would be quite strange but if you're referring to Martin Lewis's forehead, the words are - I don't do ads

[qwizzie]

$10,360 Free falling

[Torque]

Also important is to pass the "live together" test. It's all nice and sweet when you only meet to go out and have fun. Only when you live under the same roof will you know if you can really be together.

This x 1 billion!!

Regarding criminals:
Leaked documents reveal some of the world’s biggest banks allowed criminals to move dirty money around the world https://t.co/ZnHwIZNdRJ?amp=1
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1307726541783171073

Gee, wonder why ol' Warren Buffett dropped all of his bank stocks earlier this year? He couldn't have been tipped off, right?  /s  

[VB1001]

"Hal Finney" Sun, 11 Jan 2009

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and
becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the
total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all
the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household
wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With
20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

https://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography@metzdowd.com/msg10152.html

Don't rule out any pricing option, look what they were talking about in 2009.

Important clause highlighted.  He obviously wasn’t looking into a crystal ball and predicting that.

This is why influential people sometimes become wary of any type of “what if?”, thinking-aloud types of brainstorming in public.

I do not mean a prediction from Hal, from the crystal ball, the "experiment" was in the testing phase but HF already anticipated that with a limited supply if BTC was successful the price would increase exponentially, he made a quick calculation.

Almost 11 years later with 7.8 billion people in the world, we continue with a high percentage of the population who have no idea about BTC, nor do they know what Bitcoin is, by the time (adoption) BTC reaches the consumer, all the BTC already It will be in the hands of institutions, Hodlers. very rich people, banks, exchanges, whales, miners, (not counting the lost BTC) members of WO , then it will be when the satoshis enter the market, because few people will be able to pay the full price of 1BTC in 10 or 15 years.

Here the point of HF is that he was/is a real BTCull, with Hat, of course

People will react similarly to gold, they will buy small pieces of BTC as store of value.
How many things can happen in the long term future? many.
That there will be some currency for the usual purchases in the day to day? probably with all security.

But if we get it right, no one will replace Bitcoin.

(Excuse my grammar, as you have already observed, my level of English is very bad.)

[Karartma1]

I can't leave for a few days that I lose touch with everything here and corn starts to fall. If my 5 minutes reading is correct, I guess corn is following stocks right now and I still don't get why. 

Regarding criminals:
Leaked documents reveal some of the world’s biggest banks allowed criminals to move dirty money around the world https://t.co/ZnHwIZNdRJ?amp=1
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1307726541783171073

Gee, wonder why ol' Warren Buffett dropped all of his bank stocks earlier this year? He couldn't have been tipped off, right?  /s 

This is juicy. Now that Bitcoin is not involved what they will be whining about? Oh, yes right, BANKS!
 

[Cryptotourist]

Nocoiners Cafe, waiting for sub $10k prices:

[MFahad]

Nocoiners Cafe, waiting for sub $10k prices:

[nullius]

In all fairness, I think banks are between a rock and a hard place when it comes to money laundering.

It is indeed a no-win dilemma, because “money laundering” is a made-up non-crime with premises so impossibly absurd that they would be comical, if the implications were not deadly serious.

Somebody needs to call out the emperor’s unclothes here.

Human societies existed for thousands of years before the very recent invention of the concepts underlying modern “anti money laundering” statutes and regulations.  Some of those societies were more stable, and had less crime, than any society in the world today.  They were not “libertarian” societies, either.  They simply had not invented the ridiculous notion that it is a crime to avoid having all money watched for “suspicious activity” at all times—just in case somebody may potentially use money to commit another crime.

What “money laundering” boils down to is a frightful bogey to herd human livestock into an un-unbanked pen of perpetual surveillance, Kafkaesque rules, and most importantly, the ability to extract confiscatory taxes oft exceeding the proportion of real value extracted from the labours of old-fashioned slaves.

The “money laundering” discussion has been framed in such a way that most people never pause to question the underlying assumptions.  Don’t be brainwashed brainlaundered.

You can't have both so what do you choose?

False-dilemma evasion.  Also a “crime”, in the current year.

[xhomerx10]

Nocoiners Cafe, waiting for sub $10k prices:

 Now that's an innovative way to get out of paying for lunch.

[VB1001]

By the way, VB1001.... what is going on with your finances?  You have not figured out some way to buy back some sats?  aka stack some sats.

I am at this stage, some ridiculous purchase at some point depending on my mood, but I need extra liquidity to solve situations outside of my personal economy. Sometimes it's difficult to get into the thread, but being here also helps me disconnect from other things.
Thx, JJG