Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Cryptotourist]

Bitcoin: Once in a species opportunity.



Observing $10873.

[1713409847]

1713409847

[CryptoYar]

Today I wanted to open my account in the bank, the bank authority refused, because I could not give the source of income.

[JayJuanGee]

$11000 in one hour  

  Observing green candle.

Yeah, you see that crazy ass fuck?  aka lil fiend, bitcoin.

45 minutes after the weekly candle closes in the red (by about $130), then she shoots above $10,922  (o.k. Toxic already said it, but worth repeating, no?) - which was the amount required for closing in the green.  O.k.... Maybe it is not sustainable?  But who knows... we may well be getting $11k... currently $11,950 $10,950 was hit within about the past 5 minutes.

Edit:  Woops yeah.. thanks Homer...  Fixed it...  Hopefully, I did not cause any guys to prematurely contract hookers, lambos and blow, and then have to cancel.  That would suck (hopefully).

This range has become the new settle price, at least I much prefer to when the settle price was around $5,000. (Or well maybe I don't I did enjoy buying cheap coin)

There remains a bit of tension with what you are saying, kingcolex, and I am not really sure what that is exactly, at least not in terms of any attempt that you might be making to give us some direction (regarding king daddy's price), and surely my condolences go out to you (and your family) that you did not snap up enough of those currently seeming cheap coins in the sub $6ks, sub $5ks - and even sub $8ks is seeming kind of cheap at the moment too, right?  (but could be worse.. right? at least you did not sell, right?  right?)

Are you suggesting that we may well be in a kind of supra $10k range, but really how long have we been here? Are you going to proclaim that we got here in the end of July, so we have been supra $10k ever since?  Perhaps?  Perhaps?

Of course we have a poll on the topic too, and so far the results are coming out quite mixed in terms of whether we are ever seeing sub $10k ever again.

Personally, I am leaning towards sub $10k being more than 50/50 possible because we are too damned close (relatively speaking) to be able to completely write it off, in terms of actual odds.  And, surely, I am more than willing for the less than 50% chance to play out since I don't have any actual sentimental value for sub $10k bitcoin, even though sure, nostalgically, we spent the vast majority of our life there, so far (referring to the life of king daddy).  

Maybe we need to ask, JSRAW, but he has proven to NOT be very reliable either, in the omniscience department when his "no more sub $3,900" proclamation from late March 2019 got proven to have been 100% wrong (need a Trump wrong meme here... for emphasis...  hahahahaha)

In the end, I will concede too that it feels much better than where we were at in mid-to-late 2018 ($6ks and upper $3ks) and late 2019 ($6k to $8k) - but even now, when we look back at each of those periods they are a bit difficult to identify, exactly because, we weren't really in any of those price zones very long, either.  Of course, once we get some further passage of time then we are better able to characterize where we had been.

I suppose part of my point remains that we really have not been in this lower supra $10k for very long - even though I generally agree with your characterization that it feels quite a bit better than where we were in recent times - even though some peeps seem to want to emphasize how doom and gloomy our situation is - and I am not saying that you are one of them, even though I do recall that you did seem to have some moments of being pretty psycho (relatively speaking) on the way down from $19ks into the sub $10ks in 2018.. as I recall... hahahahahaha... #nohomo.  

It does feel much better having the feeling that we are going up rather than down, right?  hahahaha

How long we are going to be here, seems to be a bit of another question, but I suppose the punchline still remains that it does not really feel that bad for a lot of us, and it is seeming to me that you and I may be on a similar page in terms of our speculation that there might be a feeling, down the road, that those were pretty cheap coins back then, when the BTC price was in the barely above $10k territory.. Michael Saylor and some other companies, small ones like Snappa and Tahini's seem to think so, too.

[btcbeliever]

If you buy and hold physical gold selling in 10 yrs, that's far more likely to be a loss than btc

[bitebits]

If you buy and hold physical gold selling in 10 yrs, that's far more likely to be a loss than btc

Gold has historically maintained its purchasing power, fiat currencies the opposite. In other words you need to try hard getting less dollars in return for your gold, except for the impatient of course.

[hv_]

Bitcoin: Once in a species opportunity.



Observing $10873.

shilling for ponzi

that s it

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Grayscale have apparently bought another 17,000BTC in the last 7 days. The bull run is coming, boys.

The circulating supply is drying up, the price will reflect this in the next 18 months.

[strawbs]

Bitcoin price is at an ATH right now. This feels like a much better way of looking at things  

https://pomp.substack.com/p/bitcoin-is-at-an-all-time-high

Bitcoin’s price has never fallen below the 200-week moving average. It rises significantly above the average in the bull markets and has historically bounced off the 200-week moving average in bear markets. Additionally, according to the 200-week moving average of Bitcoin, the asset is currently sitting at an all-time high in price.

[600watt]

Grayscale have apparently bought another 17,000BTC in the last 7 days. The bull run is coming, boys.

The circulating supply is drying up, the price will reflect this in the next 18 months.

with all this buying, I really wonder who tf is selling all those bitcoin 45% under ATH price which was fkn almost 3 years ago. selling the best performing asset in the history of finance when it is on its way out of multiyear lows, one must be truly nuts. why tf did truly nuts folks buy it in the first place? just for trading? billions worth of coins only sold by traders? OG whales not patient enough to wait a few more months?
miners? miners that need to cover cost? but them mining only 900 btc a day, so... unlikely. scared retail? I don't think. why getting scared now, the time to get scared and panic sell was in March.

tinfoil hat therory: some entity (yeah- deep pocket banks or alike) bought a shitton of btc to dump it on every little sign of bull during this next potential run-up. because they know the next run-up is the last run-up.  

well ok, not very likely. but who is selling?

[philipma1957]

Grayscale have apparently bought another 17,000BTC in the last 7 days. The bull run is coming, boys.

The circulating supply is drying up, the price will reflect this in the next 18 months.

with all this buying, I really wonder who tf is selling all those bitcoin 45% under ATH price which was fkn almost 3 years ago. selling the best performing asset in the history of finance when it is on its way out of multiyear lows, one must be truly nuts. why tf did truly nuts folks buy it in the first place? just for trading? billions worth of coins only sold by traders? OG whales not patient enough to wait a few more months?
miners? miners that need to cover cost? but them mining only 900 btc a day, so... unlikely. scared retail? I don't think. why getting scared now, the time to get scared and panic sell was in March.

tinfoil hat therory: some entity (yeah- deep pocket banks or alike) bought a shitton of btc to dump it on every little sign of bull during this next potential run-up. because they know the next run-up is the last run-up.  

well ok, not very likely. but who is selling?

while mining ⛏ btc direct creates 900 new coins mining at places like nicehash creates a need for more btc.

nicehash buys btc daily to pay eth miners.

give me five minutes i can tell you nicehash’s need for btc for payment to eth miners.

eth at nicehash is 9.5th at about 4 btc a th or 38 btc of old coins

i can do each and every coin at nice hash and you can see the demand

scrypt is 12 th which is about 1.3 btc a day

x11,x13,keccak,nist5  total under .5 btc

neoscrypt,quark,qubit. total under .1 btc

kapow is about 1.5 btc

all the cuck coins need around 1.5 btc


so nicehash needs around 50-60 btc a day to pay off miners like me.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Up a wee bit... currently $10895USD/$14583CAD (Bitcoinaverage) but still basically sideways.

September will soon be over and hopefully the autumn rally will be starting before long.

Go Bitcoin go.

The wealthy cabal depends on internet services companies Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, PayPal, eBay, all the cloud-based services companies, etc. Stock markets depend in the internet. Governments and militaries around the world depend on the internet up and running 24/7/365.

You forgot to mention the entire mainstream banking system.

Edit: ...and media propaganda system.

[AlcoHoDL]

Grayscale have apparently bought another 17,000BTC in the last 7 days. The bull run is coming, boys.

The circulating supply is drying up, the price will reflect this in the next 18 months.

with all this buying, I really wonder who tf is selling all those bitcoin 45% under ATH price which was fkn almost 3 years ago. selling the best performing asset in the history of finance when it is on its way out of multiyear lows, one must be truly nuts. why tf did truly nuts folks buy it in the first place? just for trading? billions worth of coins only sold by traders? OG whales not patient enough to wait a few more months?
miners? miners that need to cover cost? but them mining only 900 btc a day, so... unlikely. scared retail? I don't think. why getting scared now, the time to get scared and panic sell was in March.

tinfoil hat therory: some entity (yeah- deep pocket banks or alike) bought a shitton of btc to dump it on every little sign of bull during this next potential run-up. because they know the next run-up is the last run-up.  

well ok, not very likely. but who is selling?

mindrust sold 10 BTC on March.

17000 BTC / 10 BTC = 1700 full mindrust events.

I think it's quite possible for 1700 weak hands to exist, and be ready to sell because they read the latest Peter Schiff tweet, no?

Of course, said BTC really comes from a combination of sources, but I wouldn't rule out lots of small (single/low-double digits), weak fishlings which, when taken together, can amount to 1000s of BTC.

Let them sell. Selling also means that someone's buying, so all is good, it's just corn being shifted from the dumb to the smart.

[HI-TEC99]

Grayscale have apparently bought another 17,000BTC in the last 7 days. The bull run is coming, boys.

The circulating supply is drying up, the price will reflect this in the next 18 months.

with all this buying, I really wonder who tf is selling all those bitcoin 45% under ATH price which was fkn almost 3 years ago. selling the best performing asset in the history of finance when it is on its way out of multiyear lows, one must be truly nuts. why tf did truly nuts folks buy it in the first place? just for trading? billions worth of coins only sold by traders? OG whales not patient enough to wait a few more months?
miners? miners that need to cover cost? but them mining only 900 btc a day, so... unlikely. scared retail? I don't think. why getting scared now, the time to get scared and panic sell was in March.

tinfoil hat therory: some entity (yeah- deep pocket banks or alike) bought a shitton of btc to dump it on every little sign of bull during this next potential run-up. because they know the next run-up is the last run-up.  

well ok, not very likely. but who is selling?

mindrust sold 10 BTC on March.

17000 BTC / 10 BTC = 1700 full mindrust events.

I think it's quite possible for 1700 weak hands to exist, and be ready to sell because they read the latest Peter Schiff tweet, no?

Of course, said BTC really comes from a combination of sources, but I wouldn't rule out lots of small (single/low-double digits), weak fishlings which, when taken together, can amount to 1000s of BTC.

Let them sell. Selling also means that someone's buying, so all is good, it's just corn being shifted from the dumb to the smart.

[soullyG]

Don't forget all the 5 minute candle traders, and people trying to scrape profits from range trading

[Last of the V8s]

No wonder the exchanges' reserves have come down so much this year. Just a couple of million more and we get our supply shortage event.

[cAPSLOCK]

My 2c about Saylor's buy of $425 mil in btc.

Contrary to everybody's enthusiasm, I found it troublesome.

1. The smart way of buying would be buying calls, then be aggressive, not making 20K tiny tx. If you have calls, then you don't care much if market moves or not as a result of your buying.

2. How he was able to find $425mil sellers without moving a market? It's not like all other buyers and sellers disappear.

Something does not compute.
To me this is an indication that market has some re-hypothecated btc and large portion of the volume is such "imaginary" btc.
It does not matter that he was able to withdraw. It simply means that they re-hypothecated even more and injected those back to exchanges.

I suspect the exchanges of the world have 10 to 20% of the coins they claim to have.

I imagine most volume is based on reserves they dont actually have.

This would be the source of what would be a somewhat novel experience in the world for finance.

To the extent institutions (can we call Bitcoin exchanges that yet?) are playing games with fractional reserves they are risking a unique sort of disaster.  Even a "run on the banks" could be solved by the Fed. In fact the whole repo thing we have been seeing is exactly that.

But Bitcoin is uniquely limited, and the most extreme of bearer assets that we've ever created.

The closest thing we have to it is Gold.  But Gold requires this:


Bitcoin does not.

Trace Meyer tried, back in the day to establish that yearly "run on the exchanges" with the whole "proof of keys" gimmick.  But that never really took hold.

The question is simple though...

I propose the idea that we are in a unique situation with bitcoin, and a shift is coming due.  Currently the main use case for Bitcoin is speculation.  We have to admit it... it is still really mostly the magical internet money casino.  But we might just be on the cusp of a paradigm shift.  

What happens when the dominant use case for Bitcoin changes from "casino" to "value store"?

As that shift happens I cannot imagine the above situation will remain tenable.

We are sitting on some sort of powder keg.  What I am not 100% certain about is if it is the sort of powder keg that blows us to the moon, or the sort that just kills us all.

[cAPSLOCK]

No wonder the exchanges' reserves have come down so much this year. Just a couple of million more and we get our supply shortage event.

You said in one sentence what it took me a JJG sort of novella to try to say above.

[Wekkel]

https://steemitimages.com/p/2gsjgna1uruvUuS7ndh9YqVwYGPLVszbFLwwpAYXYh1Z9Pf85ngRwce83M213vTDQxVWgymiLnoSe3Prpg9HRKqyY3CoZW2RWc7TbUAD2mVj5EA95g?format=match&mode=fit&width=640

That's why you don't tell your wife about your crypto adventures. Ever.

She'll nag about selling your bag way waaay too early forever 

[Torque]

You forgot the last image with the caption "7 years later... I'm divorcing you and taking half of your bitcoin!"

[Torque]

The wealthy cabal depends on internet services companies Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, PayPal, eBay, all the cloud-based services companies, etc. Stock markets depend in the internet. Governments and militaries around the world depend on the internet up and running 24/7/365.

You forgot to mention the entire mainstream banking system.

Edit: ...and media propaganda system.

Oh I definitely forgot about that last one. Can you imagine if the MSM no longer had the internet to spread propaganda, lies, and fake news? To get the people all riled up? Hell they would blow a fkn gasket...