Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AlcoHoDL]

AlcoHoDL maybe the only problem with your model is that we don't know what the real value of USD would be, meaning that your model can be revised on the way up even more.

Very true! Thanks for pointing it out...

[1713967908]

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[1713967908]

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[1713967908]

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[El duderino_]

It’s all about the ladies.....

Them bears are trying to get to them I guess

[BlackHatCoiner]

 

[JayJuanGee]

WTF...? I just switched from the 15k temp thingy to my old hat, FFS.

d_eddie, how is your trading working?

He don't do dat no moar...

I hate to talk for d_eddie...

not

[ edited out]

Happy Thankgiving, ya cunt.

Aren't you a happy camper.

Happy thanksgiving to you too, you non-cunt wannabe.  

Jay, consider this to be my lil contribution to the quality of debate on the Wall.   

Fair enough... I doubt that my difference of opinion with lambie hones in on substantive matters, even though from time to time, in our back and forth, we do end up touching upon some substantive matters.   Every once in a blue moon, he makes a good point or two.. so there is that concession from me.  I must be feeling charitable, today for some reason.  Could have been the eggnog for thanksgiving..instead of christmas?

[OutOfMemory]

In other news: Austrian Fucking gets renamed to Fugging!

Last call to go there and make that precious selfie with the village sign.

In that regard i can recommend the comedy movie "Bad Fucking" (kinda hard to find via google, but why oh why?    )
It's in german.  ...wait, some austrian accent, you can compare it with what scottish is like to english.

German speakers (and listeners), enjoy 

[Wekkel]

Attempt ad 2nd bottom on the 4hr. Not out of the woods yet and it can sure still go to $15,xxx the next few weeks, but it’s an encouraging signal 

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/bitcoinmemehub/status/1331741230905118732?s=21

That was a good shortie-but-sweetie (only 5 minutes) interview with Michael Saylor, and he continues to be quite a good spokesperson on the bitcoin investment thesis [...]

Looks like '2x per year' idea is now mainstream... I noticed they both of them described the long term trend of BTC as 100% per year...

Yes.. I have noticed some of this kind of talk, but I doubt that anyone really believes that 2x per year would be sustainable for long term planning - even though i recall that you have been presenting such a chart for quite a while now.

Furthermore, even though I also heard Saylor say something like 100% per year, that does not really seem to be his more solid investment thesis which largely had honed in upon his expectation that the dollar is losing value and that the actual current practices will likely continue to sustain loss in dollar value.. so BTC becomes more solid - even if it might not end up appreciating 100% per year relative to the dollar or other possible investments.

https://twitter.com/bitcoinmemehub/status/1331741230905118732?s=21

That was a good shortie-but-sweetie (only 5 minutes) interview with Michael Saylor, and he continues to be quite a good spokesperson on the bitcoin investment thesis [...]

Looks like '2x per year' idea is now mainstream... I noticed they both of them described the long term trend of BTC as 100% per year...

I can live with a BTC/USD gain of 100% per year:

Year        BTC/USD
-------------------
2020   $     17,000
2021   $     34,000
2022   $     68,000
2023   $    136,000 <--- My "moon" level.
2024   $    272,000
2025   $    544,000 <--- My "fuck-you rich" level.
2026   $  1,088,000
2027   $  2,176,000
2028   $  4,352,000
2029   $  8,704,000
2030   $ 17,408,000
2031   $ 34,816,000
2032   $ 69,632,000
2033   $139,264,000 <--- My prediction of 1 cup of coffee = 1 sat comes true!

How about we start more conservatively with the beginning of the year 208-week moving average, which would have been about $5k

-------------------
2020   $     5,000
2021   $     10,000
2022   $     20,000
2023   $     40,000
2024   $     80,000
2025   $     160,000
2026   $     320,000
2027   $     640,000
2028   $     1,280,000
2029   $     2,560,000
2030   $     5,120,000
2031   $     10,240,000
2032   $     20,480,000
2033   $     40,960,000

Still seems like a bit too much (too bullish) for my thinking, and even not quite sustainable, even in that period of time.  And, I am not saying that either scenario is not possible, but a more conservative version seems a bit more plausible.. even though even that more conservative version seems a bit of a stretch.

I would prefer either having a smaller base or having a curve that is reducing each year instead of expecting a doubling every year, the percentage would slope down - which seems more realistic and sustainable for a longer term.

[AlcoHoDL]

https://twitter.com/bitcoinmemehub/status/1331741230905118732?s=21

That was a good shortie-but-sweetie (only 5 minutes) interview with Michael Saylor, and he continues to be quite a good spokesperson on the bitcoin investment thesis [...]

Looks like '2x per year' idea is now mainstream... I noticed they both of them described the long term trend of BTC as 100% per year...

Yes.. I have noticed some of this kind of talk, but I doubt that anyone really believes that 2x per year would be sustainable for long term planning - even though i recall that you have been presenting such a chart for quite a while now.

Furthermore, even though I also heard Saylor say something like 100% per year, that does not really seem to be his more solid investment thesis which largely had honed in upon his expectation that the dollar is losing value and that the actual current practices will likely continue to sustain loss in dollar value.. so BTC becomes more solid - even if it might not end up appreciating 100% per year relative to the dollar or other possible investments.

https://twitter.com/bitcoinmemehub/status/1331741230905118732?s=21

That was a good shortie-but-sweetie (only 5 minutes) interview with Michael Saylor, and he continues to be quite a good spokesperson on the bitcoin investment thesis [...]

Looks like '2x per year' idea is now mainstream... I noticed they both of them described the long term trend of BTC as 100% per year...

I can live with a BTC/USD gain of 100% per year:

Year        BTC/USD
-------------------
2020   $     17,000
2021   $     34,000
2022   $     68,000
2023   $    136,000 <--- My "moon" level.
2024   $    272,000
2025   $    544,000 <--- My "fuck-you rich" level.
2026   $  1,088,000
2027   $  2,176,000
2028   $  4,352,000
2029   $  8,704,000
2030   $ 17,408,000
2031   $ 34,816,000
2032   $ 69,632,000
2033   $139,264,000 <--- My prediction of 1 cup of coffee = 1 sat comes true!

How about we start more conservatively with the beginning of the year 208-week moving average, which would have been about $5k

-------------------
2020   $     5,000
2021   $     10,000
2022   $     20,000
2023   $     40,000
2024   $     80,000
2025   $     160,000
2026   $     320,000
2027   $     640,000
2028   $     1,280,000
2029   $     2,560,000
2030   $     5,120,000
2031   $     10,240,000
2032   $     20,480,000
2033   $     40,960,000

Still seems like a bit too much (too bullish) for my thinking, and even not quite sustainable, even in that period of time.  And, I am not saying that either scenario is not possible, but a more conservative version seems a bit more plausible.. even though even that more conservative version seems a bit of a stretch.

Not bad, either. Your table is just lagging 2 years behind mine. Which is fine, and more realistic. Either one of the two tables is fine by me, and both are SUPER BULLISH. Seems too good to be true, but you never know...

[Wexlike]

Bought the dip, armageddon ahead.

[Gyrsur]

Attempt ad 2nd bottom on the 4hr. Not out of the woods yet and it can sure still go to $15,xxx the next few weeks, but it’s an encouraging signal  

please pic or it didn't happen.  

maybe we have reached a new well balanced accumulation zone?

take a look at the chart and imagine if this is just the beginning like it was in the past.



EDIT: from TA point of view it's a Double Top but from fundamental point of view the crowd is tricked into something.  

[nullius]

[ edited out]

Happy Thankgiving, ya cunt.

Aren't you a happy camper.

Happy thanksgiving to you too, you non-cunt wannabe.  

Hey!  According to Bitcointalk Suchmoon’s Vision (BSV), I, nullius, am the forum’s official cunt!

There is a whole thread accusing me of being a cunt in the topic title—from someone who claims to have me on ignore.  
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5293050.0
My reply, with admission of figurative cuntiness:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5293050.msg55693619#msg55693619
Credit:  My attempt to talk to CH follows a certain non-meanie example that I had seen in giving a fair shake to the bonesjones alt.

Thus Jay, although you may still compete with me in WO for being a meanie, my lil selfie has you beat for being a cunt.  Lambie, take notice.  

I must be feeling charitable, today for some reason.

Wow, I have a lock on being the Wall’s #0 meanie, too.  

[Wekkel]

Attempt ad 2nd bottom on the 4hr. Not out of the woods yet and it can sure still go to $15,xxx the next few weeks, but it’s an encouraging signal  

please pic or it didn't happen.  

It’s difficult with the forum software from a phone. Especially an iPhone where the user is considered a total idiot ...

But here it is: https://ibb.co/MB2x2L8

[Gyrsur]

Attempt ad 2nd bottom on the 4hr. Not out of the woods yet and it can sure still go to $15,xxx the next few weeks, but it’s an encouraging signal  

please pic or it didn't happen.  

But here it is: https://ibb.co/MB2x2L8

thanks, man!

It’s difficult with the forum software from a phone. Especially an iPhone where the user is considered a total idiot ...

you should ask theymos regarding the new forum software. OOH NOO, better you forget it!  

I think it won't be a bad idea if someone creates a website with epochtalk and implement scrap the data that's given on bitcointalk. I.E. Bitcointalk with current posts, etc but on epochtalk (with epochtalk design) but with disabled login function. I think it won't be a bad idea cause as it seems we don't have access to beta.bitcointalk.org and won't even have in a near future (was there anything said about that by theymos?). At some point, some people may visit new beta and it will help us to get used to epochtalk version of bitcointalk

[El duderino_]

Attempt ad 2nd bottom on the 4hr. Not out of the woods yet and it can sure still go to $15,xxx the next few weeks, but it’s an encouraging signal 

So actually you are saying it could go to 15xxx but it could also go UP ....

So eeeuhm it’s down or up iyo?

Thx 





Btw ... 16,*777* isn’t that bullish in some kind of a way??

Lucky numbers and sh*t

I’m believing more in such things as I do in TA   

[seek3r]

[El duderino_]

[vapourminer]

By the way, with in the past day or so, I also incorporated "vapourminer lols" within my BTC sale orders in around similar price arenas that he had outlined.. largely in a symbiotic kind of a spirit of the idea... (I hate to be such a non-original copy cat... but it seemed to be just too good of an oportunidad to pass up) ... Perhaps, I will wait until after such passenings to disclose more particulars to the extent that such lols are worth mentioning and presuming that at some point in the near future (aka soon^tm) BTC price movements "force" those wannabe lols to play out.   

my sense of humor has been branded "odd" on more than one occasion. fun is where you find it.

im forced to admit my ladders are setup somewhat like yours, i set them up and then its hands off for the most part. plan the sequence best you can and then relax, the emotions can now stay out of it. when occasions warrant it i go readjust stuff. luckily i had done this like a week or two ago and fine tuned the 16k-20k range and the sells then buybacks pretty much happened all while i slept. sold at 17.5k - 18.5k or so and bought it back around 16.2 - 16.7 all preset up. almost took the fun out of it.

my lowest "real" (as opposed to a "lulz") active buy order is at like 1k lol. dunno how long thats ones been there. think ill cancel that one and move it up  a bit heh.. that leaves 8kish is my lowest. which isnt low enough really imo. never know what honeybadger might think up. 6k sounds nice as a low.

gotta keep some lulz amounts lower (and higher) of course.

[Krubster]

Chinese police seized crypto assets worth $4.2B from PlusToken Ponzi

According to court filings released publicly on Nov. 19 and posted by The Block, authorities seized a staggering 194,775 Bitcoin (BTC), 833,083 Ether (ETH), 1.4 million Litecoin (LTC), 27.6 million EOS, 74,167 Dash, 487 million XRP, 6 billion Dogecoin (DOGE), 79,581 Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and 213,724 Tether (USDT) from seven individuals convicted in the case.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/chinese-police-seized-crypto-assets-worth-4-2b-today-from-plustoken-ponzi

[Wekkel]

Attempt ad 2nd bottom on the 4hr. Not out of the woods yet and it can sure still go to $15,xxx the next few weeks, but it’s an encouraging signal  

So actually you are saying it could go to 15xxx but it could also go UP ....

So eeeuhm it’s down or up iyo?

Of course you get an evasive answer from me  

It can go up and it can go down. My personal ‘worst case’ range is 20 to 30% correction from the top. So that means between $15,598 and $13,648. So $15,000 would still be benign in my world.

What my post was meant to say is that I see buyers fighting back on a chart that is more than short term up/down. The 4hr is not long term but still longer away from the immediate trading moment. I find comfort in seeing a potential reversal building with seemingly sellers trying to push down further to a
lower low again while buyer seem able to prevent this. This would break the ‘straight down’ pattern we saw immediate after the sell off with lower lows following.

Whether it all materialises and also will constitute the lowest point ($16,317 Bitfinex) is written in the cards (the unknown future).

I trust this clarifies your question.

[Globb0]

Chinese police seized crypto assets worth $4.2B from PlusToken Ponzi

According to court filings released publicly on Nov. 19 and posted by The Block, authorities seized a staggering 194,775 Bitcoin (BTC), 833,083 Ether (ETH), 1.4 million Litecoin (LTC), 27.6 million EOS, 74,167 Dash, 487 million XRP, 6 billion Dogecoin (DOGE), 79,581 Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and 213,724 Tether (USDT) from seven individuals convicted in the case.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/chinese-police-seized-crypto-assets-worth-4-2b-today-from-plustoken-ponzi

Funny these stories never have an "amount" of captured XMR