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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 42 (70%)
<$60,000 - 18 (30%)
Total Voters: 60

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26355858 times)
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HairyMaclairy
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December 28, 2020, 04:03:32 AM

Maybe like a golf handicap?
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December 28, 2020, 04:13:38 AM
Last edit: December 28, 2020, 04:48:17 AM by Toxic2040


crazy newbie posting above   ...some kinda code lurking in there folks...do be careful...no clicky clicky



hmmmm

Code:
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December 28, 2020, 05:17:42 AM
Last edit: December 28, 2020, 01:10:06 PM by Poker Player
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crazy newbie posting above   ...some kinda code lurking in there folks...do be careful...no clicky clicky



hmmmm

They are bots. That one is the same as the one after, who I'm not even going to bother quoting. Just keep reporting them, as I've already done. There is a thread in meta about it.
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December 28, 2020, 07:17:39 AM

My TA says we are running too hot right now.  Currently we are at the March 2021 price and it’s only December so we are roughly three months ahead of schedule.   

Likely scenarios are: 

1. My TA is shit

2.  We are aiming for a 2013 crash (although I would say we have not yet gone parabolic so this is a lower risk)

3.  We will stagnate at this price for 3 months and everyone will get bored

4.  This time it is differentTM and This Is Gentlemen please pick the colour of your helicopter (no black helicopters please)

5. We are going to have a mild dump heading into early January and then bounce. 

Personally I’m going with option 5.  Again I am not trading this - it’s not worth the risk. 

Edit: If we make it to 15 January without a meaningful drop, options 2 & 4 become more prominent (never forgetting option 1).

There are no facts to base 4. & 5. on them, so 3. looks most logical.

I think there are tons of facts for #4.

-Bitcoin has grown to a gigantic half trillion dollar network.
-Bitcoin is still ONLY worth a half trillion dollars.
-BIG money individuals and smaller organizations starting to take positions.
-Those who think it is a ponzi/tulips/bubble/pets.com/myspace will not But MANY MANY others will.
-Large institutions *beginning* to take positions.
-The biggest commercial banks and investment firms gone from "it's garbage" to "We expect 300k-600k BTC".
-There has been unprecedented OTC buying.  Never in Bitcoin's history has the OTC market been so hot.
-Much analysis has been put into how much is left for early whales to sell etc.  Not much agreement other than it's probably not much.
-Governments attacking tokens the qualify as securities but not Bitcoin effectively.
-At least one central bank openly endorsing bitcoin use.

And the craziest part.  All the people realizing what bitcoin is at this point?  Are also realizing that the fire is lit and they cannot wait to take aposition without it being costly.

That feedback loop Satoshi mentioned?  Yeah the fact it was ever worth ANYTHING is the miracle.  But as to where it goes?  That part is just getting started.




this is funny. in a very good way. the bull runs i watched closely since march 2013 always went like:

- forum sort of did not acknowledge the bull, many think we are still in a bear market
- when it becomes evident that bull run is on, small outbursts of euphoria can be seen
- full blown euphoria kicks in at later stage of bull
- during final stage of bull, only alpha geniuses aka masters of the universes aka the new wealthy elite is posting in here
- then some poor sucker mentions "this time is different" and "new paradigm" - which somehow always seem to stop the bull run single handedly
- multi month / multi year depression kicks in

what kind of bull run is going to be expected when euphoria and "this time is different" are met at the beginning of a bull year?

 Cheesy

it is really funny how bitcoin price over the years seem to follow patterns closely while doing unexpected things all the time.

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December 28, 2020, 07:24:56 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

My TA says we are running too hot right now.  Currently we are at the March 2021 price and it’s only December so we are roughly three months ahead of schedule.   

Likely scenarios are: 

1. My TA is shit

2.  We are aiming for a 2013 crash (although I would say we have not yet gone parabolic so this is a lower risk)

3.  We will stagnate at this price for 3 months and everyone will get bored

4.  This time it is differentTM and This Is Gentlemen please pick the colour of your helicopter (no black helicopters please)

5. We are going to have a mild dump heading into early January and then bounce. 

Personally I’m going with option 5.  Again I am not trading this - it’s not worth the risk. 

Edit: If we make it to 15 January without a meaningful drop, options 2 & 4 become more prominent (never forgetting option 1).

There are no facts to base 4. & 5. on them, so 3. looks most logical.

I think there are tons of facts for #4.

-Bitcoin has grown to a gigantic half trillion dollar network.
-Bitcoin is still ONLY worth a half trillion dollars.
-BIG money individuals and smaller organizations starting to take positions.
-Those who think it is a ponzi/tulips/bubble/pets.com/myspace will not But MANY MANY others will.
-Large institutions *beginning* to take positions.
-The biggest commercial banks and investment firms gone from "it's garbage" to "We expect 300k-600k BTC".
-There has been unprecedented OTC buying.  Never in Bitcoin's history has the OTC market been so hot.
-Much analysis has been put into how much is left for early whales to sell etc.  Not much agreement other than it's probably not much.
-Governments attacking tokens the qualify as securities but not Bitcoin effectively.
-At least one central bank openly endorsing bitcoin use.

And the craziest part.  All the people realizing what bitcoin is at this point?  Are also realizing that the fire is lit and they cannot wait to take aposition without it being costly.

That feedback loop Satoshi mentioned?  Yeah the fact it was ever worth ANYTHING is the miracle.  But as to where it goes?  That part is just getting started.

I still think all this is not essentially different. What really would be "This time it is differentTM" is adoption. Have we forget we dreamed about average Joe knowing about Bitcoin and actively using it? Is Lightning network less important then large institutions?

It is just another asset for them, they can drop it as easily as they started playing with it. After real adoption by the masses they would have no choice.

I'm not saying their money is not important, this pump is funded by them obviously, what I'm saying is their money is not making it really different than 2017 pump.
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December 28, 2020, 08:46:40 AM
Last edit: December 28, 2020, 03:27:17 PM by Wekkel

I think we are in a different stage now with long term price agnostic buyers entering into the fray. The worst we’ll do from here is a slow sideways movement with some ups and downs. But I see that as an outlier. The indiscriminate buying is not done yet. Especially with a rocky fiscal 2021 ahead on top of the overall movement to ‘Everything Digital’.
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December 28, 2020, 09:15:07 AM

I still think all this is not essentially different. What really would be "This time it is differentTM" is adoption. Have we forget we dreamed about average Joe knowing about Bitcoin and actively using it? Is Lightning network less important then large institutions?

It is just another asset for them, they can drop it as easily as they started playing with it. After real adoption by the masses they would have no choice.

I'm not saying their money is not important, this pump is funded by them obviously, what I'm saying is their money is not making it really different than 2017 pump.

The thing is, it's hard to find another asset which is appreciating the way BTC does in current situation. Scarcity and stuff....

Real adoption by the masses? R u sure we need it? How many of your friends/relatives are hoarding precious metals?

 

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December 28, 2020, 09:20:48 AM

30k is possible today guys...  Cool
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December 28, 2020, 10:14:34 AM

Sideways at 27 is more possible...
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December 28, 2020, 10:51:32 AM

30k is possible today guys...  Cool


Sideways at 27 is more possible...



week I am also a Phil  my vote is with Phil. honey badger is off for a few days and sidewinder is back.


The longer the sidewinder is in action the higher the top will be.



Please note: this was take directly from bing search "sidewinder"
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December 28, 2020, 11:29:46 AM

Next halving will be boom.

They seen it now with this time.

IF companies are in based on it could even go pre halving?

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December 28, 2020, 11:32:07 AM
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December 28, 2020, 11:37:37 AM

Next halving will be boom.

They seen it now with this time.

IF companies are in based on it could even go pre halving?



Let’s keep it first with a boom at the current halving event  Kiss
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December 28, 2020, 11:56:19 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), xhomerx10 (1)



Cheesy



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December 28, 2020, 12:10:40 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (1)

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December 28, 2020, 12:52:15 PM

Gotta say some very high quality artwork there.  Keep it coming gentlemen!
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December 28, 2020, 01:10:56 PM

Next halving will be boom.

They seen it now with this time.

IF companies are in based on it could even go pre halving?



Let’s keep it first with a boom at the current halving event  Kiss

This! Smiley
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December 28, 2020, 01:36:51 PM

Yeah I just mean each halving is like another proof of the concept



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December 28, 2020, 01:44:29 PM

Yeah I just mean each halving is like another proof of the concept

I suspect the halvings will lose significance as we go on, this being the last one to have a macroscopic impact.
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December 28, 2020, 01:51:55 PM
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