Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[serveria.com]

So, today, I did some degenerate sat stacking. Feelin' pretty decent. Looks like I'm gonna get filled @ $35,000 soon, at this rate. Orders placed all the way down to $33k.

01/16/2021 XX:XX:XX   BTCUSD   Buy   Limit   $35,500.00 USD   0.00704225 BTC   $250.00 USD   Filled
01/16/2021 XX:XX:XX   BTCUSD   Buy   Limit   $36,000.00 USD   0.00694444 BTC   $250.00 USD   Filled
01/16/2021 XX:XX:XX   BTCUSD   Buy   Limit   $36,500.00 USD   0.00684931 BTC   $250.00 USD   Filled
01/15/2021 XX:XX:XX   BTCUSD   Buy   Limit   $35,500.00 USD   0.00704225 BTC   $250.00 USD   Filled
01/15/2021 XX:XX:XX   BTCUSD   Buy   Limit   $36,000.00 USD   0.00694444 BTC   $250.00 USD   Filled
01/15/2021 XX:XX:XX   BTCUSD   Buy   Limit   $36,500.00 USD   0.00684931 BTC   $250.00 USD   Filled

Lots of deja vu doing this stuff. Don't like hitting targets more than 3x

Bob, it's good that you're stacking sats, actually I should be doing the same, it's just that I can't be bothered with the whole process of wiring the fiat and waiting for it to arrive at the exchange, etc., etc.

I wonder though. With so many coins you have (in the big hundreds or more, I'm sure), what's the point of buying $250 worth of BTC? Is this just for fun/entertainment purposes? Because, even when Bitcoin goes 10x (and it will), your $250 (or $1250) will become $2500 ($12,500). Just peanuts compared to the coins you have.

Not trying to criticize you or anything, just to get your point of view. Why not buy $100,000 (or more) worth of BTC straight away right now? I believe you must have that kind of fiat. That would be a move that would fit your stash and wealth level. $250 is just dust for you, isn't it?

On the other hand, "every little helps", and maybe we should all be doing that, no matter how large or small the amount. In fact, your post is seriously tempting me to wire a few $$$$ to buy more corn...

Sorry for getting a little personal, just being curious...

You're underestimating Bawb... or not following closely enough. He's been DCAing for quite a time already and don't let these tiny $250 buys confuse you. For example $250 x10 is $2500 and according to your calculations above if (when) BTC goes 10x $2500 will be $25000 which is not quite peanuts anymore. I wasn't counting but I guess Bawb bought much more than $250 x10 this time.    

Yes, I see your point, but it's all relative. When his $250 x10 = $2500 becomes $25,000, his stash could be worth several hundred million dollars. What's  $25,000 compared to that?

In any case, I do believe we should convert any spare fiat we have to BTC, however small it may be. It's just that, when one has hundreds or thousands of BTC, buying 0.007 BTC ($250) seems a bit strange...

If I had 1000 btc first off I would have sold 500 when it cracked 40 k.

500 x 40 k = 20 million.  I would set aside 7 -8 million for taxes.  leaving me 12-13 million.

I need 1/2 for living my life.  So I have 6-6.5 million to fuck with.

buying back $250 at a time will take me 64 years at 1 buy a day.  But I would have something to do for the rest of my life.  
And the key is I would increase to 500 if coins go under 30K.       now buy back takes 32 years
 I would then increase again to 1000 a buy if coins go under 25k. now buy back takes 16 years.

If you want to do DCA you need to prep correctly

So you wouldn't have waited till November-December? Costly mistake, man...  

No I held 500 of the 1000 coins. Thus I must be 1/2 right.

If I held all the coins I could be 100% wrong.

At 40k making your self 1/2 right is the easiest decision in the world.

The worst that happens is the coins go up.  And my other 500 just become more valuable.

Your method is a certain way to be unhappy as you always want more.

Yeah I got your idea. But you really believe $44k is a blowoff top?  

No I think 70-80k  but if I had the chance to cash 20 million and leave 20 million in play I would have done it.

Back in the dot com boom I had two friends  one had 40 mill in has stock account the other had 20 mill. Us 30 year t Bill's moved to 8%

Told the two of them cash 1/2 put aside the tax money and buy the 30 year bonds.

They did not.  I did manage to convince a third one to cash  1.5 million out of his 4 million  in stock and buy 1 million in t bills he gets 80 k a year for 7 more years.

T bill is just another form of brrrr scam? 

[1713970568]

1713970568

[1713970568]

1713970568

[tertius993]

Sorry, I removed part of the thread for easier quotation.

Selling 20mil (in the example) would result in an enormous tax bill, which essentially defeats the purpose, IMHO.
I am waiting for a situation where you can reliably get either interest on btc instead or get cash loans in lieu of btc.
Once the field moves to include large institutional players for custody and loans (like Fidelity, etc)-that's a better idea...plus maybe selling all forks this Fall-Winter.
Basically...you don't have to sell. I keep saying this, but nobody seems to listen.

EDIT: I wonder when we will have 8% (on the way to above 15%) interest rates on 30-year again. Maybe in 5-10 years, unless CPI will start going up truly crazily.

Just the bit in bold .. depends totally on your personal situation, you cannot generalise like that.

How long are you prepared to wait for that situation to come to pass?  Til you are 60 ... ? ... what if you are 60 today ... 65 ... 70?

There are any number of situations where it might be appropriate to cash in some and use it for, well whatever ...

the point is not that you have to wait to sell until certain age...the point is that there are other methods (used by wealthy), apart from selling to get needed cash.
You don't f-ing sell the best asset of the millenium...or at least, you shouldn't. This was not my original position, but I learned along the way.

You misunderstand what I am saying I think .. you said “I am waiting for a situation where you can reliably get either interest on btc instead or get cash loans in lieu of btc.” ... so something that you cannot do today.  So you (and everyone else) has to wait for that to happen ... my point is how long are you going to wait?  Each person is different and their willingness or ability to wait is also different.

A person who is already later in life will have a different perspective from a younger person ... the best asset of the millenium is no good to me dead!

[Searing]

So, today, I did some degenerate sat stacking. Feelin' pretty decent. Looks like I'm gonna get filled @ $35,000 soon, at this rate. Orders placed all the way down to $33k.

01/16/2021 XX:XX:XX   BTCUSD   Buy   Limit   $35,500.00 USD   0.00704225 BTC   $250.00 USD   Filled
01/16/2021 XX:XX:XX   BTCUSD   Buy   Limit   $36,000.00 USD   0.00694444 BTC   $250.00 USD   Filled
01/16/2021 XX:XX:XX   BTCUSD   Buy   Limit   $36,500.00 USD   0.00684931 BTC   $250.00 USD   Filled
01/15/2021 XX:XX:XX   BTCUSD   Buy   Limit   $35,500.00 USD   0.00704225 BTC   $250.00 USD   Filled
01/15/2021 XX:XX:XX   BTCUSD   Buy   Limit   $36,000.00 USD   0.00694444 BTC   $250.00 USD   Filled
01/15/2021 XX:XX:XX   BTCUSD   Buy   Limit   $36,500.00 USD   0.00684931 BTC   $250.00 USD   Filled

Lots of deja vu doing this stuff. Don't like hitting targets more than 3x

Bob, it's good that you're stacking sats, actually I should be doing the same, it's just that I can't be bothered with the whole process of wiring the fiat and waiting for it to arrive at the exchange, etc., etc.

I wonder though. With so many coins you have (in the big hundreds or more, I'm sure), what's the point of buying $250 worth of BTC? Is this just for fun/entertainment purposes? Because, even when Bitcoin goes 10x (and it will), your $250 (or $1250) will become $2500 ($12,500). Just peanuts compared to the coins you have.

Not trying to criticize you or anything, just to get your point of view. Why not buy $100,000 (or more) worth of BTC straight away right now? I believe you must have that kind of fiat. That would be a move that would fit your stash and wealth level. $250 is just dust for you, isn't it?

On the other hand, "every little helps", and maybe we should all be doing that, no matter how large or small the amount. In fact, your post is seriously tempting me to wire a few $$$$ to buy more corn...

Sorry for getting a little personal, just being curious...

You're underestimating Bawb... or not following closely enough. He's been DCAing for quite a time already and don't let these tiny $250 buys confuse you. For example $250 x10 is $2500 and according to your calculations above if (when) BTC goes 10x $2500 will be $25000 which is not quite peanuts anymore. I wasn't counting but I guess Bawb bought much more than $250 x10 this time.    

Yes, I see your point, but it's all relative. When his $250 x10 = $2500 becomes $25,000, his stash could be worth several hundred million dollars. What's  $25,000 compared to that?

In any case, I do believe we should convert any spare fiat we have to BTC, however small it may be. It's just that, when one has hundreds or thousands of BTC, buying 0.007 BTC ($250) seems a bit strange...

If I had 1000 btc first off I would have sold 500 when it cracked 40 k.

500 x 40 k = 20 million.  I would set aside 7 -8 million for taxes.  leaving me 12-13 million.

I need 1/2 for living my life.  So I have 6-6.5 million to fuck with.

buying back $250 at a time will take me 64 years at 1 buy a day.  But I would have something to do for the rest of my life.  
And the key is I would increase to 500 if coins go under 30K.       now buy back takes 32 years
 I would then increase again to 1000 a buy if coins go under 25k. now buy back takes 16 years.

If you want to do DCA you need to prep correctly

So you wouldn't have waited till November-December? Costly mistake, man...  

No I held 500 of the 1000 coins. Thus I must be 1/2 right.

If I held all the coins I could be 100% wrong.

At 40k making your self 1/2 right is the easiest decision in the world.

The worst that happens is the coins go up.  And my other 500 just become more valuable.

Your method is a certain way to be unhappy as you always want more.

My Dubious Methodology.

I no longer see BTC/Crypto as dying...so for mental games, I am doing the following...I have enough BTC/Crypto that any of the below I'm fine with...again,
this is my 'dubious' reasoning (as to date)

(1) Whatever the price of BTC/Crypto....it dumps 1/2 due to unforeseen and/or lack of adoption/regulations/aliens or whatever..and reaching this 'adoption'
rate..it just kinda sits there like 'gold' as for usefulness and adoption and from that point on acts like a traditional investment and maybe beats inflation
a bit year by year. This is my 'worst' case scenario long term.

(2) Same as above but pick a day with this dubious mental exercise but use 'today's price' (as of now $35,800.63) and same as above....adoption reached
under whatever silly scenario you might think of and BTC/Crypto just kinda acts like a traditional investment from now on as it has peaked.....again maybe
make 2-3% a year and beats inflation.

(3) BTC/Crypto does what it has in the past and goes up 2x/4x/8x etc, etc. NOT met adoption yet (with what I suspect coming inflation and bonds not
doing anything due to money printing to beat inflation)

So right now converting some sh*tcoins and BTC forks to BTC and riding the wave. IF I really get 'nervous' I can take the 'profit' of about 7 BTC from
my 12/24/18 Real Life 13 BTC dump at $3,900 ...the low of the low at BTC Hoard....and set that aside as 'no worse off' then the 12/24/2018 date...in
that the 7 BTC above is/can be recovered with sh*tcoins/some forks/and what I accumulated back.

So have an 'emergency' eject switch above of up to 7 BTC....but don't need the money for my retirement...gonna pass it all likely along in an estate
so we will see....stuff to do...

Its the 'math' ...inflation is coming.....current block size 6.125..in 4 years it will be 3.125...4 years after that in 2028 it will be 1.5625...only so much
'virtual' real estate out there folks.

Anyway, accumulating BTC dust yet, as we speak

(note: this can change at a moment's notice with a BTC/Crypto dump and me screaming like a small 9-year-old child...I 'always' reserve the right to act in ways
that are dubious to my long term mental health or self-interest.) Thus the 7 BTC emergency eject switch.

again, just what I'm doing for god's sake don't follow my actions! I am as my 'tagline' states 'clueless'!

Brad

[Biodom]

Sorry, I removed part of the thread for easier quotation.

Selling 20mil (in the example) would result in an enormous tax bill, which essentially defeats the purpose, IMHO.
I am waiting for a situation where you can reliably get either interest on btc instead or get cash loans in lieu of btc.
Once the field moves to include large institutional players for custody and loans (like Fidelity, etc)-that's a better idea...plus maybe selling all forks this Fall-Winter.
Basically...you don't have to sell. I keep saying this, but nobody seems to listen.

EDIT: I wonder when we will have 8% (on the way to above 15%) interest rates on 30-year again. Maybe in 5-10 years, unless CPI will start going up truly crazily.

Just the bit in bold .. depends totally on your personal situation, you cannot generalise like that.

How long are you prepared to wait for that situation to come to pass?  Til you are 60 ... ? ... what if you are 60 today ... 65 ... 70?

There are any number of situations where it might be appropriate to cash in some and use it for, well whatever ...

the point is not that you have to wait to sell until certain age...the point is that there are other methods (used by wealthy), apart from selling to get needed cash.
You don't f-ing sell the best asset of the millenium...or at least, you shouldn't. This was not my original position, but I learned along the way.

You misunderstand what I am saying I think .. you said “I am waiting for a situation where you can reliably get either interest on btc instead or get cash loans in lieu of btc.” ... so something that you cannot do today.  So you (and everyone else) has to wait for that to happen ... my point is how long are you going to wait?  Each person is different and their willingness or ability to wait is also different.

A person who is already later in life will have a different perspective from a younger person ... the best asset of the millenium is no good to me dead!

I elaborated on methods in the prior post (edited).
I am not a spring chicken either...I wish I was, lol

[Torque]

Selling 20mil (in the example) would result in an enormous tax bill, which essentially defeats the purpose, IMHO.
I am waiting for a situation where you can reliably get either interest on btc instead or get cash loans in lieu of btc.
Once the field moves to include large institutional players for custody and loans (like Fidelity, etc)-that's a better idea...plus maybe selling all forks this Fall-Winter.
Basically...you don't have to sell. I keep saying this, but nobody seems to listen.

EDIT: I wonder when we will have 8% (on the way to above 15%) interest rates on 30-year again. Maybe in 5-10 years, unless CPI will start going up truly crazily.

It is extremely unlikely that we will ever have 30-year T rates above 2-3% ever again.

The problem is the U.S. National Debt.

At 8% rates, just the interest alone on the nation debt would be $2.2T /year, which would have to borrowed into existence just to pay it. 15% rate is roughly double that. The money printer would have to brrr into overdrive.

Unsustainable. This would quickly cause world hyperinflation and a subsequent crack-up boom.

It is more likely that rates will stay at near-zero indefinitely, perhaps even going negative.

[Wekkel]

This ^^ at the expense of the dollar.

Read the following outlook for an easy to follow syntheses of all this: https://themarket.ch/interview/louis-gave-inflation-will-come-back-with-a-vengeance-ld.3307

[tertius993]

Sorry, I removed part of the thread for easier quotation.

Selling 20mil (in the example) would result in an enormous tax bill, which essentially defeats the purpose, IMHO.
I am waiting for a situation where you can reliably get either interest on btc instead or get cash loans in lieu of btc.
Once the field moves to include large institutional players for custody and loans (like Fidelity, etc)-that's a better idea...plus maybe selling all forks this Fall-Winter.
Basically...you don't have to sell. I keep saying this, but nobody seems to listen.

EDIT: I wonder when we will have 8% (on the way to above 15%) interest rates on 30-year again. Maybe in 5-10 years, unless CPI will start going up truly crazily.

Just the bit in bold .. depends totally on your personal situation, you cannot generalise like that.

How long are you prepared to wait for that situation to come to pass?  Til you are 60 ... ? ... what if you are 60 today ... 65 ... 70?

There are any number of situations where it might be appropriate to cash in some and use it for, well whatever ...

the point is not that you have to wait to sell until certain age...the point is that there are other methods (used by wealthy), apart from selling to get needed cash.
You don't f-ing sell the best asset of the millenium...or at least, you shouldn't. This was not my original position, but I learned along the way.

You misunderstand what I am saying I think .. you said “I am waiting for a situation where you can reliably get either interest on btc instead or get cash loans in lieu of btc.” ... so something that you cannot do today.  So you (and everyone else) has to wait for that to happen ... my point is how long are you going to wait?  Each person is different and their willingness or ability to wait is also different.

A person who is already later in life will have a different perspective from a younger person ... the best asset of the millenium is no good to me dead!

I elaborated on methods in the prior post (edited).
I am not a spring chicken either...I wish I was, lol

Yes I saw that those after I posted, however, unless I had misunderstood you of those options:

1. Involves transferring your coins to LedgerX (not your keys, etc.) and I haven’t tried to price them but high strike-priced options will not sell for a particularly good rate, so you will risk a forced sale at more a reasonable level;
2. Is not available and a cash loan needs cash income to service (presumably may also require depositing your BTC somewhere as security, again [/i]not your keys, etc.[/i]
3. Also involves the not your keys situation again ... though I guess this is most straightforward

I stand by my view that different people have a different perspective and what works for one may not work for another.

[Biodom]

This ^^ at the expense of the dollar.

Read the following outlook for an easy to follow syntheses of all this: https://themarket.ch/interview/louis-gave-inflation-will-come-back-with-a-vengeance-ld.3307

reading...US as a "sick emerging market"-like? I agree that the vast amounts of money were wasted on just preserving the status quo, NOT on any productive endeavors like physical infrastructure, etc.

Interestingly as well, the 'ice age' proponent Albert Edwards predicts a short term correction followed by a "great melt". MMT will be fully embraced by the G-20.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/12/16/albert-edwards-the-10-year-yield-is-heading-to-zero

[Torque]

This ^^ at the expense of the dollar.

Read the following outlook for an easy to follow syntheses of all this: https://themarket.ch/interview/louis-gave-inflation-will-come-back-with-a-vengeance-ld.3307

Nice read. I agree on all his points.

The way I look at things, whether the dollar gets weaker or stronger in the near term, as interest rates rise the Fed will move to cap them at ~2-3%. The dollar will take a hit.

Whatever they do though, they definitely *won't* be turning off the money printer. It's just a matter of how fast they inflate the money supply.

Which long term will just mean more asset price inflation.

[BobLawblaw]

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/12/16/albert-edwards-the-10-year-yield-is-heading-to-zero

Wouldn't it be funny, if many many years from now, the US Govt needs to start buying BTC to start paying off it's debt ?

[El duderino_]

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/12/16/albert-edwards-the-10-year-yield-is-heading-to-zero

Wouldn't it be funny, if many many years from now, the US Govt needs to start buying BTC to start paying off it's debt ?

Many things are funny.... but still it’s pity that the overal human is just to arrogant or to dumb to see that BTC is the way ....

Btw

Corona Sunday’s
Started Mandalorian,
I love it, so good!

[El duderino_]

Mission will fail with trying to convert this Dude right here... 

Yeah... About your girlfriend... We have the technology on Planet Anus, is all I'm saying.

Wait until switcheroo-mode engage.

Actually.... it’s not breathing what I do... it’s just keeping my breath and keeping trigging the trigger every DIP.

What I will do is ... catching some sun in some nice temperatures thx to BTC and maybe a bit cause of other skills, but mainly BTC

[OutOfMemory]

bitcoin is sleepy,
just like WO is.
come on, do something!

been out all weekend
spending time with family
in the freezing cold.

about to warm up
with some freshly brewed coffee
and look for some walls.

#haiku!sunday

[serveria.com]

Mission will fail with trying to convert this Dude right here... 

Yeah... About your girlfriend... We have the technology on Planet Anus, is all I'm saying.

Wait until switcheroo-mode engage.

Actually.... it’s not breathing what I do... it’s just keeping my breath and keeping trigging the trigger every DIP.

What I will do is ... catching some sun in some nice temperatures thx to BTC and maybe a bit cause of other skills, but mainly BTC

One way ticket to planet Anus... 

[Wekkel]

Bitcoin sleepy is usually good.

[vroom]

sleepy $1000 raises. such boring, no wow.

[El duderino_]

bitcoin is sleepy,
just like WO is.
come on, do something!

been out all weekend
spending time with family
in the freezing cold.

about to warm up
with some freshly brewed coffee
and look for some walls.

#haiku!sunday

There will be some fun.
Time for a midnight cock out.
At planet HODLnest.

[AlcoHoDL]

buying 0.007 BTC ($250) seems a bit strange...

I'm a gay dude sent here from Planet Anus, to make everyone on Planet Earth homosexual, ushering in the Age of Aquarius.

How DARE YOU talk to me about strange.

If I had your corn I wouldn't mind being a degerate, filthy, COVID-infected gay (can I be Bi?), rusty pipe included. Yes, I admit it, I'm a BTC whore, I'd do anything for corn.

[serveria.com]

Meanwhile observing some uppity... 

[serveria.com]

buying 0.007 BTC ($250) seems a bit strange...

I'm a gay dude sent here from Planet Anus, to make everyone on Planet Earth homosexual, ushering in the Age of Aquarius.

How DARE YOU talk to me about strange.

If I had your corn I wouldn't mind being a degerate, filthy, COVID-infected gay (can I be Bi?), rusty pipe included. Yes, I admit it, I'm a BTC whore, I'd do anything for corn.

"Everyone has a price"
Pablo Escobar