Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

This Rubini guy is a professor, right? It just defies belief that he is frantically asking like a madman "What's the purpose of Bitcoin? Where does it help us?"... It's just mind boggling. Hasn't he even bothered to read the books by Antonopoulos and Ammous? I would understand if it was my grandma saying this nonsense, but him? A university professor and economist? Man, this is some crazy shit.

Economists are people too.

I mean, Paul Krugman even got a Nobel Prize in Economics and yet... said some pretty stupid shit.

The problem folks like Paul Krugman and others have with Bitcoin..is that it is based 100% on faith in the system/blockchain of Bitcoin..ie the mechanism...

the strength of Bitcoin and why it is the disruptor of their conventional thinking has done so well and quite frankly weirds them out is that ..again...the success

of Bitcoin is it is based 100% on faith. They can't see humans as having anything 100% faith in without failure...but all great things start with 100% faith

from love to democracy to walking on the moon. The trick is to have the 'faith' last until it is common and accepted as the next step...from faith to truth.

Tis' damn hard to 'stop' or 'spin' faith ..especially in a decentralized and trustless manner....this is the basis of democracy itself...

so it is both...decentralization plus faith in the process is more a movement than an 'economic' engine...they will never get their head around this.

This is confusing as hell to me...so it must really be driving folks like Paul Krugman nuts.....but then again....faith in any decentralized idea be it democracy

or bitcoin..is always the outlier...till it ain't...

They better get used to it however....it is how Bitcoin rolls...

brad

This is exactly it in a nutshell.

Once an asset has the attributes/properties that are desirable as a form of money, the rest of it's value is all derived from faith.

I often use the example of precious metals, because idiots like Rubini and Schiff always want to bring up gold and how it has been used for thousands of years as money, it has "intrinsic value", blah blah blah.

But what about thousands of years ago, when the first 1-100 people that first discovered gold, picked up gold rocks off the ground, and decided to start bartering with them?

Why did they even start doing that? Answer: Faith in the metal as money/SOV.

Why did that group then grow from 100 to 1000, then 10,000, then 100,000? Answer: Faith in the metal as money/SOV.

It wasn't the "intrinsic value" of gold and silver that caused their monetary value to rise, it was 100% pure faith from humans that PMs were a good form of money. And they went from exactly zero value to the value we give them today.

So it's not the "thing itself" that gives it value as money/SOV, it's the people using it. It's a faith-based mutual agreement amongst the users.

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[xhomerx10]

The Bitcoin vs. environment trope is total bullshit.

A widely adopted, deflationary store of value is the only thing with the potential to overcome humanities tendency to instant gratification and rein in the senseless overcomsumption we see today.

If your money is going to be worth more tomorrow than it is today are you going to blow it on some worthless crap at WalMart or IKEA?  No.  You are only going to spend it on things with actual value.

Bitcoin incentivizes the deferral of consumption and planning on longer time frames, as such it is the best thing to happen for the ecology in all of human history.

 Dammit!  The reason I got interested in Bitcoin in the first place was my inability to senselessly over-consume. 

[infofront]

(retard arguments about bitcoin power usage)

Mass bitcoin adoption would help the environment more than anything else. Take your long-debunked 2013-era bitcoin FUD elsewhere.

[JayJuanGee]

Ooh.. I am sure they might want some donations before they upgrade the forum software.

Attain cool VIP status for a dirt-cheap BTC50?

This example seems to demonstrate a kind of level of absurdity in some of the earlier bitcoin ideology of pricing goods and services in BTC....

Yes, in the future, when bitcoin reaches somewhere approaching the top of the s-curve, it might start to make a bit more sense, because at that point, then BTC prices are likely to stabilize to some extent.. but in terms of dollars, the BTC price may well need to be quite a bit north of $10million per BTC... looking like such prices are more and more in reach... even though it could take a couple (or even a few) more cycles to get there.. 2030-ish?  this post is not going to age well, but just throwing out some thoughts.

[Dabs]

 Sorry, I thought the idea was self-explanatory.  If Bob were to purposefully build a structure in the shape of the Bitcoin symbol to be viewed from space as I suggested, what would be the point in obscuring its view from space?!  In fact, what would be the point in building it at all?  I'm sure there are many more efficient shapes for structures than the Bitcoin symbol. (not that I mean to disrespect the Bitcoin symbol).  This structure would be an hommage to the thing that gave Bob the monetary might to afford his dream "home/ranch/racetrack".  Maybe just a tattoo then.

You could do that for some semi-public / non-private location which could be some distance away from where you actually live. Just so you can carve out some giant farm land type of thing that can be seen from google maps / earth.

You could even live there maybe, I mean, it's not like it's a glass house eh? It would be no different than living in any other bungalow in the middle of the city, although that's much harder to find in giant maps from space.

[Dabs]

Ooh.. I am sure they might want some donations before they upgrade the forum software.

Attain cool VIP status for a dirt-cheap BTC50?

This example seems to demonstrate a kind of level of absurdity in some of the earlier bitcoin ideology of pricing goods and services in BTC....

Yes, in the future, when bitcoin reaches somewhere approaching the top of the s-curve, it might start to make a bit more sense, because at that point, then BTC prices are likely to stabilize to some extent.. but in terms of dollars, the BTC price may well need to be quite a bit north of $10million per BTC... looking like such prices are more and more in reach... even though it could take a couple (or even a few) more cycles to get there.. 2030-ish?  this post is not going to age well, but just throwing out some thoughts.

It stems from a 10k BTC pizza and 1 BTC = 1 BTC line of thinking.

I think the better estimate would be closer to 2040 or even 2050 when we see $10m BTC.

If we assume a halving every 4 years, then we can conservatively estimate a doubling in value in terms of USD, and it would look like this.

Block, Year, Reward Era, Block Reward, Start BTC, BTC Added, End BTC, BTC increase, End BTC % of limit, USD price estimate
630000   2020   4   6.25    18,375,000.00     1,312,500.00     19,687,500.00    7.14%   93.75%       50,000.00
840000   2024   5   3.125    19,687,500.00     656,250.00     20,343,750.00    3.33%   96.88%       100,000.00
1050000   2028   6   1.5625    20,343,750.00     328,125.00     20,671,875.00    1.61%   98.44%       200,000.00
1260000   2032   7   0.78125    20,671,875.00     164,062.50     20,835,937.50    0.79%   99.22%       400,000.00
1470000   2036   8   0.390625    20,835,937.50     82,031.25     20,917,968.75    0.39%   99.61%       800,000.00
1680000   2040   9   0.1953125    20,917,968.75     41,015.63     20,958,984.38    0.20%   99.80%       1,600,000.00
1890000   2044   10   0.09765625    20,958,984.38     20,507.81     20,979,492.19    0.10%   99.90%       3,200,000.00
2100000   2048   11   0.04882812    20,979,492.19     10,253.91     20,989,746.09    0.05%   99.95%       6,400,000.00
2310000   2052   12   0.02441406    20,989,746.09     5,126.95     20,994,873.05    0.02%   99.98%       12,800,000.00

I started with 50k even though it was last year... just round numbers.

Of course, a lot of different sources are now predicting 100k by end of 2021, to as high as 300k and even 400k by year end.

In any case, it is just a matter of time, and most of us will still be alive by 2050 to witness whatever Bitcoin is worth then.

Notice that by 2036, technically not all coins have been mined, but the number is already at 20.9 million corns, for all practical purposes miners are living on transaction fees and all bitcoin has already been mined. (Yes, it's not, but it is. Whatever, debate about the last bitcoin if you like, it becomes irrelevant at this point in time in the future.)

[JayJuanGee]

I was looking through one of my old collections of downloaded images and I found this gem.

I'll dedicate it to Mindrust.



 

At least he is still active on the forum, trying to re-build his stash from scratch.
But You will probably never see him again here on the WO.
We can't judge, what we cannot understand.

>>>>We can't judge, what we cannot understand.<<<<

But but but.... we can judge it because we do understand aspects of it.

Sure, we might not understand exactly because there were aspects of what Mindrust did (if actually true) that were pretty dumb in grand ways and even seeming less than sincere (incredible) in terms of whether any longer term BTC HODLer would really do what Mindrust had done, but we can still judge and speculate about it, and even at the time that it happened (mid March 2020), many of us realized that the Mindrust example (and behavior to the extent that he really did what he said he did) was a gift that was going to continue to give for years and years to come... which has played out for ongoing speculation, second-guessing, advising of what NOT to do and therefore judging.

Note:  I am not even going to accept that we may have been being played the whole time, and the whole example is just bullshit.. In that regard, it is possible that it did not happen, so our lil myth is just a story told by someone who was playing us.  But, still we do not have any real solid evidence that mindrust was lying to us (incredible as the whole story seems), so in that regard, we can (and should) continue to use various circumstances around such panic selling at the bottom to assist our own understandings of what to do or not do boundaries and understanding limitations of our own personal psychology and finances. In other words, mindrust examples, even though extreme, are helpful for us to attempt to better understand ourselves and our various limitations

[Richy_T]

The problem folks like Paul Krugman and others have with Bitcoin..is that it is based 100% on faith in the system/blockchain of Bitcoin..ie the mechanism...

The "intrinsic value" (still actually subjective value) is undoubtedly what gave it its bump start. But one of the beautiful things about human beings is our ability to handle abstract concepts. We were able to abstract the concept of shelter from looking for caves and other natural structures to building our own shelters, from lean-tos and shacks to brick homes to hundred-story high-rises. So, as our understanding of economics has matured, we have been able to design better financial instruments such as coins, fiat, ledgers and ultimately cryptocurrencies.

[ivomm]

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-holds-record-highs-jpmorgan-co-president-admits-well-have-be-involved

[savetherainforest]

Oh how much I  hate that guy!!! ... ... But I found myself some other sh!tcoins to daytrade on.

[JayJuanGee]

With all these big institutions finally onboarding, i get some kind of a sad feeling...maybe we have to say goodbye to -80% bear markets. I would miss them!

Accumulating in these price ranges just doesn't feel the same anymore. A Sat here, a Sat there...

Do what you can, and surely a lot of retail is going to be front run by institutional investors in the upcoming times because a lot of retail do not understand the value of bitcoin, so if you are accumulating sats, even at these prices, you are likely ahead of the vast majority of the population.

Don't get me wrong in regards to the fairness of bitcoin as an investment in regards to retail.  The truth of the matter remains that retail has had around 10 years or so to front run institutional investors, and ONLY a small portion of the population either recognized such opportunity and/or took advantage of such opportunity.  Cannot really blame anyone in this regard in general ways because sometimes regular peeps are just NOT in a position to invest, to study investments or to NOT get mislead by a decent amount of misinformation that ends up discouraging them from researching and/or starting some kind of actual investment strategy, even if quite modest - such as $10 per week or something like that.

From time to time, it can be good to look at where we are at in regards to our $10 per week over the past 7 years.

Yes, we see that we would have invested $3,660 but we would have accumulated nearly 4.5 BTC, so even modest investment plans can play out quite well in terms of establishing a decent stash - but surely the overall point remains that if institutional investors are getting all hot and bothered about BTC right now in terms of accumulating BTC before others can get into the game, then ONLY those regular investors (retail) who are willing to establish a plan and to get in now are going to have some kind of possibility of having decently low costs of BTC accumulation when we are looking 10 years down the road and everyone is figuring out what their BTC cost basis is as compared to the then BTC price.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning and Happy Lunar New Year Bitcoinland. The year of the Bull has begun. Wealth and prosperity to all (except shitcoiners).

After yesterday's ATH ($49000 Stamp) we've settled back into $4xxxx consolidation mode... currently $47401USD/$60368CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Slow and steady wins the race. Go Bitcoin go.
___

Remember: It's not about blockchain and crypto. It's about Bitcoin.

[Tash]

Oh how much I  hate that guy!!! ... ... But I found myself some other sh!tcoins to daytrade on.

With no trading fees no down deposit, not limited to crypto (stocks, commodities ...) its hard for a daytrader/gambler to say no.

[JayJuanGee]

No need to download the chain just to sign a msg?

No. But there's a fair wait while the UI becomes available. I've upgraded my CPU since then so might be worth another go.

I just looked and saw that I just recently passed up chartbuddy for my number of posts, but chartbuddy has been inactive for more than 1,000 days.  No big deal.  I would rather see chartbuddy back and posting regularly than to have some kind of leadership in the number of posts arena.    

There are charts from other Twitter peeps, PlanB, Woo-something ... if all ChartBuddy did was post numbers, there wouldn't be much to censor. That and Jack Dorsey runs a full node.

It's more a principled stand.

This seems to be part of the "bridge burning" point in regards to my considerations of where you are at psychologically, Richy_T.  Sure each of us are entitled to differing opinions and maybe even to be stubborn in various regards, but from my perspective (which is surely incomplete because I am not you), you seem to be stubborn about some things that you had been wrong about and still not able to admit it, and the reason that you cannot admit your various wrongness is because you do not believe that you are wrong.. which yeah fine and dandy, but you are going to likely continue to get backlash in regards to your views and even some of your seeming stubborness.

Anyhow, it is what it is, and I am glad to see that you are back, it gives some of us another person to argue with about differing views, and many times you do present your seeming nonsense in convincing ways....   even though you must admit that you have lost your cool several times too, as evidenced by your rage quit... 

[BobLawblaw]

OK. So. I lied about not taking profit at $50k.

Feeling greedy. Starting to move some coin today in preparation for $50k. That should give us enough liquidity buffer to buy the third and final parcel of land, and start putting up a basic steel/concrete garage on the lot ASAP, as well as covering costs for grading/paving the driveway, and bridge construction.

Was looking over my accounts last night, about which account to draw down on, and decided "Fuck it. I like that money where it is, doing what it's doing. Might as well sell a little bit of corn at these prices."

Sue me.

[JayJuanGee]

Again, bitcoin is cool and solid, but the rest are overheating like crazy in complete fever.
To me this looks like a setup for a nice dump. Maybe btc gets to 50-60K area before the dump, then at least 20% decline, which would basically bring us back to where we are now or even slightly below.

I am having a difficult time with your current conceptualization of what is a "dump" Biodom.

Really?  20% would be a dump?  And furthermore we get 20% up into the $50k to $60k territory, then we get a 20% dump which would mean that we would be back into the BTC price arena that we started.. hardly a dump, unless we are considering the matter from an ant's perspective.

Shitcoins should drop at least 40-70%, though. I don't want to name names, but many are 100-400% up in the last 7 days. Ridiculous.
For example see nicely engineered dump in overheated pot stocks today. -30% on the open on no news, just to "balance" things out.

I am also having some difficulties in appreciating any kind of importance in incorporating shitcoin dynamics in our analysis of the price dynamics of king daddy.  I think that it has largely been established that when we are trying to figure out what the dog is going to do (talking about wagging) in regards to its tail, we do not look from the perspective of the tail, but instead from the perspective of lil doggie... AmiNOTrite?

OK. So. I lied about not taking profit at $50k.

You are as wishy-washy as a kenmore.

Feeling greedy.

 Fair enough

Starting to move some coin today in preparation for $50k. That should give us enough liquidity buffer to buy the third and final parcel of land, and start putting up a basic steel/concrete garage on the lot ASAP, as well as covering costs for grading/paving the driveway, and bridge construction.

Nothing wrong with that.

Was looking over my accounts last night, about which account to draw down on, and decided "Fuck it. I like that money where it is, doing what it's doing. Might as well sell a little bit of corn at these prices."

Sue me.

You deserve to be batman slapped or maybe shakened like that lady on "airplane".. but whatever.  Nice to hear on the ground contemplations and some material funzies... which are the kinds of options that peeps have who have been HODLing their BTC for a long period of time.,. so even if the BTC price were $5k or $16,250, there is still a lot of profits in cashening out some (or even all in some more extreme examples) of the corns.

 

Does anyone have the list of WO members that need to be woken up at 50K?
...
BobLawblaw

Not selling at $50k. Decided we don't have any reason to, even on principle. Rick and I both have enough fiat set aside to last us comfortably for the rest of our unnatural lives.

Decided we're going to sell another mil when we're ready to start building on the ranch. The weather turned to shit overnight, so I suspect that's going to delay the engineering survey for possibly two weeks, but we are remaining patient, and not in a hurry to get the deal done.

Due diligence on a land deal the size we are considering is nontrivial. The agent repping us even commented "I've never worked on a deal this large for personal use"

Hahahahahaha

Just capturing this lillie juxtaposition of ideas from Blawb.. within 24 hours... even though I read these posts out-of-order.. ... captured for posterity, and a good lil chuckle... evidence of the kenmore theory.  

Don't sell the corn. In 10 to 20 years, each one will be 6 to 7 digits worth of US fiat.

I don't want to sound gauche, but I have more BTC than I will reasonably be able to spend in this lifetime. Will be passing along a life-changing sum of coins to my nieces and nephews upon my passing. I believe I am on record stating that I don't ever plan on liquidating more than an additional n BTC in this lifetime, to give you some perspective.

And, that would be part of the reason of NOT criticizing you too heavily in regards to the kenmore theory.

So, "as you were" soldier.

[bitcoinPsycho]

OK. So. I lied about not taking profit at $50k.

Feeling greedy. Starting to move some coin today in preparation for $50k. That should give us enough liquidity buffer to buy the third and final parcel of land, and start putting up a basic steel/concrete garage on the lot ASAP, as well as covering costs for grading/paving the driveway, and bridge construction.

Was looking over my accounts last night, about which account to draw down on, and decided "Fuck it. I like that money where it is, doing what it's doing. Might as well sell a little bit of corn at these prices."

Sue me.

Huh  have fun staying rich

[OutOfMemory]

The Bitcoin vs. environment trope is total bullshit.

A widely adopted, deflationary store of value is the only thing with the potential to overcome humanities tendency to instant gratification and rein in the senseless overcomsumption we see today.

If your money is going to be worth more tomorrow than it is today are you going to blow it on some worthless crap at WalMart or IKEA?  No.  You are only going to spend it on things with actual value.

Bitcoin incentivizes the deferral of consumption and planning on longer time frames, as such it is the best thing to happen for the ecology in all of human history.

Look who's speaking up  
And you pretty nailed it, again.

I was on the verge to post that the current fiat ecosystem (wtf?!) is causing multitudes of energy usage and heat/co2 production when compared to bitcoin.
Putting up a stupid thesis and write it up on the esoweb is also not a study, actually.

OK. So. I lied about not taking profit at $50k.

Feeling greedy. Starting to move some coin today in preparation for $50k. That should give us enough liquidity buffer to buy the third and final parcel of land, and start putting up a basic steel/concrete garage on the lot ASAP, as well as covering costs for grading/paving the driveway, and bridge construction.

Was looking over my accounts last night, about which account to draw down on, and decided "Fuck it. I like that money where it is, doing what it's doing. Might as well sell a little bit of corn at these prices."

Sue me.

* OutOfMemory files complaint 

[BobLawblaw]

* OutOfMemory files complaint 

It's a fair court.

[xhomerx10]

OK. So. I lied about not taking profit at $50k.

Feeling greedy. Starting to move some coin today in preparation for $50k. That should give us enough liquidity buffer to buy the third and final parcel of land, and start putting up a basic steel/concrete garage on the lot ASAP, as well as covering costs for grading/paving the driveway, and bridge construction.

Was looking over my accounts last night, about which account to draw down on, and decided "Fuck it. I like that money where it is, doing what it's doing. Might as well sell a little bit of corn at these prices."

Sue me.