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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26337000 times)
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El duderino_
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February 21, 2021, 11:27:06 PM

https://twitter.com/maxkeiser/status/1363630231240790018?s=21
^
Awesome GIF<——-

Made me laugh just before entering HODLsleep
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marcus_of_augustus
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February 21, 2021, 11:36:00 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

This is not yet another cycle, this is the End of Cycles

The one where after BTC flippens gold it doesn't flip back

The one where web3 supercedes web2

Where culture is collected and accrued digitally instead of physically

Where life is lived mindfully rather than mindlessly

https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1363035740507017216

--------

At first it sounded bearish to me, until I unerstood what is meant. Since its creation Bitcoin went through several severe bear periods between the halvings. But what if the mass adoption has increased so much  that no such bear periods of 80%+ crashes from tha last ATH are possible? We see the first sign for that - unlike any other period of 12 months, there was only one 30% correction and two 20% corrections. What if this is a sign that such long periods of lack of interest from the big investors  are no longer possible? The implications on any sell strategy involving considerations of the previous cycles will be hugely negative. I mean if someone is selling with the hope of buying 80% cheaper, this may turn to be a total disaster with some 30-40% dips occurring here and there. Not only that, but this will make any unnecessary major sell from our stash to be a big mistake. This tweet predicts more than a supercycle, rather an infitite bull market. Well, this may look unrealistic now, but certainly the probability for that is not 0 as some may think based on previous experience. And sometimes the past experience may be misleading.

I don't buy it, but hey whatever... there is a chance for anything to happen..

My overall thinkenings continue to be that bitcoin no doesn't work like dat... and I am not even trying to be stubbornly caught up in the already existing models, but there still seems to be more evidence to the currently credible three existing models rather than proposing some new model that may or may not end up playing out.

... at some point we will reach the end of cycles, unlikely to be this one but if it is it will be a mega rollercoaster pump to $800k+ then plateau and consolidation with bear market correction of no more than 30%, followed by years of continuous stable growth

... a steep S-curve adoption (hyperbitcoinisation) is still not off the table either but that would likely mean a catastrophic implosion of fiat system and total financial chaos with much economic destruction, better if this played out over a decade or two instead

... the mining of new coins (new supply) is still a material fraction of the total inflow and increases with increasing fiat price, but eventually (soon?) it will become insignificant as inflows outstrip new supply even as the price is increasing ... at which point the halving cycles will only be an echo

... already consuming ~0.5% of global energy production and increasing, it's likely that bitcoin may also run into material energy limits that the market is willing to afford for securing our bitcoin monetary system, or it may incentivise energy production globally in out-of-the-way places and new energy technologies, in the same way it now incentivises chip innovation and manufacturing
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February 21, 2021, 11:49:37 PM

https://twitter.com/thepaulosophy/status/1363300890321424387

... 100,000 satoshi stare, stoned on orange pills
JayJuanGee
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February 22, 2021, 12:11:43 AM

I can see gold becoming a useful cheap metal for making 100-200 year long batteries for Tesla's electric cars.

ford is going electric for a reason.  they all know those asteroids are loaded with insane amounts of gold.

Gold makes super long lasting batteries if it were to be worth 100 x less or 17 a pound vs 1700 a pound  we would have multi generational batteries.

Sell your gold and buy btc

Ford is switching to all electric 2030 for a reason they know Elon will be mining those asteroids bigly.

We are heading into a new world of cheap long lasting power.

BTC is the tool that will allow it to happen.

hodl hodl hodl.

500k before 2030

 We wont be driving cars in 100 years; we'll be teleporting... to Mars.
  

WE is a tad optimistic (although I wouldn't mind, really).

 We will be able to afford the latest in life-extension technology.

 Yes JJG, I've used the royal 'WE'

Just for mentioning me, you deserve a batslap.

Stop living in a fantasy, Homer.

The most you are going to get, perhaps, might be a few more months or maybe a year at best.

Snap out of it.




#nohomo


Even now, I'm still figuring out how to chill out further.

Some of us (royal us, of course) have noticed...


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

DROP.

Oh gawd...

lot of hopium in dat one.
JayJuanGee
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February 22, 2021, 12:26:14 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

These people who sell are always a step ahead. After 8 years of hodling I was ready to sell my first small amount BTC (not the one I bought Oct 2020) at $59444. And they knew many people will sell at 59k ish so they started the sell off at 57k  Roll Eyes Now I will rethink if I sell below $99k  Cool

How about don't sell at all. At these price levels, there are ways to make an income of 10s of thousands USD a month on your exsisting stash without selling. This applies to stashes under 10 BTC too. Life is good at these levels.

Fuck third-party custody, if you are considering or enticed by anything that involves that.

There are some concepts in bitcoin.. the real deal bitcoin, that incentives are built in, so bitcoin is already designed to increase in value.. .what the fuck more do you need, you greedy fucks (#nohomo) who may well be seriously considering placing your coins with some stupid-ass service trying to claim legitimacy and enticing you with supposed "passive income" .. blah blah blah..

Did I say, "fuck that?"  Don't be fucking trying to short-cut your BTC accumulation goals by thinking that you can "make money" using convoluted (surprise terms) contracts when if you accumulate adequately, then you will have way more options just living off the likely ongoing BTC price appreciation that has no real signs of stopping, even though it it is likely to continue to have up and down cycles along the way.. and you can take advantage of that in your long term planning and your refusal to take stupid-ass shortcuts that may well end up screwing you out of your coins by hook or by crook or just by bad luck (such as great price moves that liquidate you out of your supposed collateral that you were not able to adequately cover because you were to fucking busy gambling out of greed).

You will thank me later, even if you might not be able to measure what you are thanking me for, exactly...  Wink
BitcoinBunny
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February 22, 2021, 12:54:26 AM

These people who sell are always a step ahead. After 8 years of hodling I was ready to sell my first small amount BTC (not the one I bought Oct 2020) at $59444. And they knew many people will sell at 59k ish so they started the sell off at 57k  Roll Eyes Now I will rethink if I sell below $99k  Cool

How about don't sell at all. At these price levels, there are ways to make an income of 10s of thousands USD a month on your exsisting stash without selling. This applies to stashes under 10 BTC too. Life is good at these levels.

Fuck third-party custody, if you are considering or enticed by anything that involves that.

There are some concepts in bitcoin.. the real deal bitcoin, that incentives are built in, so bitcoin is already designed to increase in value.. .what the fuck more do you need, you greedy fucks (#nohomo) who may well be seriously considering placing your coins with some stupid-ass service trying to claim legitimacy and enticing you with supposed "passive income" .. blah blah blah..

Did I say, "fuck that?"  Don't be fucking trying to short-cut your BTC accumulation goals by thinking that you can "make money" using convoluted (surprise terms) contracts when if you accumulate adequately, then you will have way more options just living off the likely ongoing BTC price appreciation that has no real signs of stopping, even though it it is likely to continue to have up and down cycles along the way.. and you can take advantage of that in your long term planning and your refusal to take stupid-ass shortcuts that may well end up screwing you out of your coins by hook or by crook or just by bad luck (such as great price moves that liquidate you out of your supposed collateral that you were not able to adequately cover because you were to fucking busy gambling out of greed).

You will thank me later, even if you might not be able to measure what you are thanking me for, exactly...  Wink

Was a bit surprised to see the enthusiastic reactions / merits to the "ways of making money from your BTC" posts myself. It all sounded ridiculously dangerous. And of course too good to be true.
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February 22, 2021, 01:12:53 AM
Last edit: February 22, 2021, 01:31:08 AM by Biodom
Merited by somac. (4)

These people who sell are always a step ahead. After 8 years of hodling I was ready to sell my first small amount BTC (not the one I bought Oct 2020) at $59444. And they knew many people will sell at 59k ish so they started the sell off at 57k  Roll Eyes Now I will rethink if I sell below $99k  Cool

How about don't sell at all. At these price levels, there are ways to make an income of 10s of thousands USD a month on your exsisting stash without selling. This applies to stashes under 10 BTC too. Life is good at these levels.

Fuck third-party custody, if you are considering or enticed by anything that involves that.

There are some concepts in bitcoin.. the real deal bitcoin, that incentives are built in, so bitcoin is already designed to increase in value.. .what the fuck more do you need, you greedy fucks (#nohomo) who may well be seriously considering placing your coins with some stupid-ass service trying to claim legitimacy and enticing you with supposed "passive income" .. blah blah blah..

Did I say, "fuck that?"  Don't be fucking trying to short-cut your BTC accumulation goals by thinking that you can "make money" using convoluted (surprise terms) contracts when if you accumulate adequately, then you will have way more options just living off the likely ongoing BTC price appreciation that has no real signs of stopping, even though it it is likely to continue to have up and down cycles along the way.. and you can take advantage of that in your long term planning and your refusal to take stupid-ass shortcuts that may well end up screwing you out of your coins by hook or by crook or just by bad luck (such as great price moves that liquidate you out of your supposed collateral that you were not able to adequately cover because you were to fucking busy gambling out of greed).

You will thank me later, even if you might not be able to measure what you are thanking me for, exactly...  Wink

Convoluted contracts. What are you talking about? blockfi? that is not optimal, sure, I would never give Zack my btc.
However, selling covered calls is a very well known financial technique that involves NO lending and, frankly, is VASTLY advantageous to the outright selling since you are not selling anything at ALL, UNLESS the price is above whatever the value is, chosen by yourself and nobody else. Covered calls assume that you write them against whatever bitcoin you sent to the broker, they are not "naked", therefore "were not able to adequately cover" is not possible and just shows that you need to research this topic more.

Of course it s not better than hodling, but it is superior to repetitive selling up or down, skimming small amounts (or not small, whatever) that you advocate.
Selling covered calls is actually a perfect trade for mined coins since you can lock in value without a sale or assuming a sale at MUCH higher levels if you chose to do it.
If you are lucky, then you retain your btc and if not, you still sold btc at a higher to much higher price (depending on your chosen price for the contract: 75, 100, 200K).
However, if btc is not sold in the end, you generate income and not cap. gains-maybe it matters for some.

Psychologically, you should consider bitcoin on which you wrote covered calls as pre-sold right now for the price attained at some moment in the future. The person on the other of the trade gives you cash right now for the RIGHT to buy btc at that future date at the price that YOU chose (be it 75, 100 or 200K). Yea, tough luck if btc is at 300K and the guy would approx 30X his money and you only get 200K/btc+whatever premium is currently there. Your counterparty would made bank, but so what, you still get your 200K, keep the premium and did not dilly-dally with "little" buys/sells at 56K.
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February 22, 2021, 01:20:27 AM
Merited by Biodom (2)

These people who sell are always a step ahead. After 8 years of hodling I was ready to sell my first small amount BTC (not the one I bought Oct 2020) at $59444. And they knew many people will sell at 59k ish so they started the sell off at 57k  Roll Eyes Now I will rethink if I sell below $99k  Cool

How about don't sell at all. At these price levels, there are ways to make an income of 10s of thousands USD a month on your exsisting stash without selling. This applies to stashes under 10 BTC too. Life is good at these levels.

Fuck third-party custody, if you are considering or enticed by anything that involves that.

There are some concepts in bitcoin.. the real deal bitcoin, that incentives are built in, so bitcoin is already designed to increase in value.. .what the fuck more do you need, you greedy fucks (#nohomo) who may well be seriously considering placing your coins with some stupid-ass service trying to claim legitimacy and enticing you with supposed "passive income" .. blah blah blah..

Did I say, "fuck that?"  Don't be fucking trying to short-cut your BTC accumulation goals by thinking that you can "make money" using convoluted (surprise terms) contracts when if you accumulate adequately, then you will have way more options just living off the likely ongoing BTC price appreciation that has no real signs of stopping, even though it it is likely to continue to have up and down cycles along the way.. and you can take advantage of that in your long term planning and your refusal to take stupid-ass shortcuts that may well end up screwing you out of your coins by hook or by crook or just by bad luck (such as great price moves that liquidate you out of your supposed collateral that you were not able to adequately cover because you were to fucking busy gambling out of greed).

You will thank me later, even if you might not be able to measure what you are thanking me for, exactly...  Wink

The thing you fail to grasp is that by selling covered call options to fund my lifestyle and purchases I will not be reducing my stack, In fact it will even help me accumulate more then I could before. What's more, I don't have to risk keeping my BTC on the exchange to still have it fully cover my calls. I can use margin so that those coins are kept in my own wallet (not the exchange). A little diversification is not a bad thing, especially when you don't have to sell BTC from your stack to do it.

I think the trouble some of you have with this may be a lack of understanding/experience with derivatives in general. I can get almost 10% per month with covered calls, and my counter-party exchange risk is reduced by using margin. Yes its slightly risky, yes you might miss out on some capital gains, but in the long term it will do pretty fucking well. I’ve done covered calls among other options strategies for years in the legacy markets and I can tell you right now these premiums are amazing in comparision.

Thank you? your kidding right? If I had listened to you my stack would have been reduced substantially with your constant insistence of selling BTC on the way up. Now that's a stupid strategy. I can assure you my stack will be much larger at 200k then it is now. The only people to thank around here are the ones that tell you to never sell any of your BTC, unless there is an emergency.
Arriemoller
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February 22, 2021, 01:22:00 AM

Is laser eyes cool
I can not decide on that
Time will have to tell

somac.
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Never selling


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February 22, 2021, 01:23:46 AM
Merited by Biodom (1)


Convoluted contracts. What are you talking about? blockfi? that is not optimal, sure, I would never give Zack my btc.
However, selling covered calls is a very well known financial technique that involves NO lending and, frankly, is VASTLY advantageous to the outright selling since you are not selling anything at ALL, UNLESS the price is above whatever the value is, chosen by yourself and nobody else. Covered calls assume that you write them against whatever bitcoin you sent to the broker, they are not "naked", therefore "were not able to adequately cover" is not possible and just shows that you need to research this topic more.

Of course it s not better than hodling, but it is superior to repetitive selling up or down, skimming small amounts (or not small, whatever) that you advocate.
Selling covered calls is actually a perfect trade for mined coins since you can lock in value without a sale or assuming a sale at MUCH higher levels if you chose to do it.
If you are lucky, then you retain your btc and if not, you still sold btc at a higher to much higher price (depending on your chosen price for the contract: 75, 100, 200K).
Hoverver, if btc is not sold in the end, you generate income and not cap. gains-maybe it matters for some.

Spot on.

JJG, this one seems to be beyond your ability of understanding or comfort level. Just stick to selling your stack as the price goes up. I and others wish to maintain our current stack or increase it.
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February 22, 2021, 01:26:14 AM

with your constant insistence of selling BTC on the way up. Now that's a stupid strategy.

indeed, it is, no question about it, apart from the fact that btc keeps going up and bails out those who pursue this.
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February 22, 2021, 01:34:12 AM
Merited by The Sceptical Chymist (2), vapourminer (1), Biodom (1)

I remember when I was a boy and watched the moon landing on TV, I was so sure that we would just keep on evolving our spacecrafts and ability to move in space just like we had done with airplanes.
I thought that I as an adult would be able to take a holiday on the moon.
I was very disappointed, and a little baffled when the space programs just halted.
I am therefore very glad that so many different entities are now starting to do what I thought would happen during my adulthood. It is now to late for me to go to space, but I'm glad that today's kids will be able to take that vacation.
I had the lunar landing craft and some other models when I was a kid, they disappeared somewhere along adult life. I'm just now buying some new models, both from the old Apollo era and the present. Some of them will be flying, others will be on display.
And this time I will also get a Soyuz rocket model, it has after all been with us ever since I was a boy.

Just some random Sunday thoughts.
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February 22, 2021, 01:35:05 AM

Is laser eyes cool
I can not decide on that
Time will have to tell



New fads come and go.
Are laser eyes all that cool?
Here.  See for yourself.




 $100K
Biodom
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February 22, 2021, 01:40:58 AM

Is laser eyes cool
I can not decide on that
Time will have to tell



New fads come and go.
Are laser eyes all that cool?
Here.  See for yourself.




 $100K

may a little frog
acquire shiny laser eyes,
asking for a friend

# if you can, please
haiku
Arriemoller
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February 22, 2021, 01:48:00 AM

Is laser eyes cool
I can not decide on that
Time will have to tell



New fads come and go.
Are laser eyes all that cool?
Here.  See for yourself.




 $100K

Cooler than I thought
I will see if it fits me
Thank you very much
JayJuanGee
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February 22, 2021, 01:50:53 AM

These people who sell are always a step ahead. After 8 years of hodling I was ready to sell my first small amount BTC (not the one I bought Oct 2020) at $59444. And they knew many people will sell at 59k ish so they started the sell off at 57k  Roll Eyes Now I will rethink if I sell below $99k  Cool

How about don't sell at all. At these price levels, there are ways to make an income of 10s of thousands USD a month on your exsisting stash without selling. This applies to stashes under 10 BTC too. Life is good at these levels.

That shock from the 2017/18 bull run dump still sits very deep. Even though the 2013/14 dump was bad as well, 2017/18 was a real shock.

Objectively speaking the 2018 correction was NOT as deep or as long as the 2014 correction.. so not sure what you are saying exactly, except that some people may have taken steps to make one worse than another or "shocked" in some other kind of emotional way.. which is NOT really looking at the matter from a more objective perspective.

Taking profits in case of a surprising dump is not bad.

Perhaps?  But there are people who do not take profits in anticipation of a surprise dump and they ride it through, and so far bitcoin's history those people have done pretty well, and sometimes even better than those who made short term profits by fucking around in ways that may have been greater than anticipated and then if they profit they end up doing it again and again and again, then end up losing way more value than if they would have employed a lot more straight forward strategy, including buying on dips, DCA and HODL.. .. in other words, selling to buy back cheaper may or may not play out and may have much worse results when it is repeated several times.


I know we will pass 100k. But I believe we will see a bigger dump before we pass 60k.


Good for you to know the future.  You are probably really rich because of such talents that you supposedly have.

If 2013 cycle repeats the real run will be in the end of the year.

Sure.  As long as you put a BIG "if" in there, then you might be somewhat o.k... but you sound like you want to gamble.. hopefully you do not lose too many of your coins (to the extent that you actually have any) with such a planned play.


And between March until end of summer it could be bearish.

It sure "could".. but it might not, also.  So what you gonna do about the variety of possibilities?  You are ONLY going to play one direction that "could" happen, or do you have a better plan than that?


At the end, we are all just speculating.

This might be a place in which the "royal we" does not work so well, especially when it is purported by a gambling dweeb who likely does not even have a very good BTC accumulation plan, amiNOTrite?


Some are good at it and some not.

Actually, that is likely true.  Some people have better plans than others.  I have a suspicion that you are probably not very good at speculation, especially given some of your historical posts... so I have my doubts about whether you are a good source for framing "perspectives" in regards to lilie fiend.

Edit: I am also curious about that income you talking about.

Another one distracted by possible income - which is probably a sign that you have NOT accumulated enough bitcoin over the years.. sucks to be uie.  By the way, am I getting you mixed up with someone else?  Maybe I am, but hey... these posts are public, so some of your ideas are coming off as a bit weird, which may explain some of the content and tone of my post. 
Elwar
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February 22, 2021, 01:55:45 AM

Just watched the Silk Road movie (Don't worry FBI I paid for it in the location where it is available for paying to view it.)

It was pretty well done.

A bit sympathetic to the cop who stole money from him and used entrapment to incite a fake murder (which was never part of the actual charges, but brought up in order to paint Ross as a murderer).

The real movie should include the judge going overboard in her zealous distain for freedom.


It is almost impossible to live a life of freedom in an unfree world.
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February 22, 2021, 01:58:23 AM

These people who sell are always a step ahead. After 8 years of hodling I was ready to sell my first small amount BTC (not the one I bought Oct 2020) at $59444. And they knew many people will sell at 59k ish so they started the sell off at 57k  Roll Eyes Now I will rethink if I sell below $99k  Cool

How about don't sell at all. At these price levels, there are ways to make an income of 10s of thousands USD a month on your exsisting stash without selling. This applies to stashes under 10 BTC too. Life is good at these levels.

How about elaborating on that a little more, somac.?  Wink ELI5...

"10s of thousands USD a month" 10s, plural assuming bare minimum of $20k to stay technically correct.
"under 10 BTC too" assuming BTC10 to stay technically correct (~BTC9.99999999999)

Hory.. sheeeiiiitttt....

The last time I checked, bitcoin does not have that many places after the decimal...    Shocked Shocked Shocked
 Tongue Tongue Tongue

So $240k/yr ($20k/m*12m/yr) on a $556.000 (BTC10*$55.600) so let me tell you about my scam investment that brings ~43%/yr  Roll Eyes

I surely agree with the remainder of where you went with the rest of you post and the overall point that you made regarding what seems to be exaggerated as fuck claim(s)... plus you get your dick sucked by a 10 every two weeks, whether you want it or not.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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February 22, 2021, 01:59:44 AM
Last edit: February 22, 2021, 02:16:00 AM by xhomerx10
Merited by Biodom (4)

Is laser eyes cool
I can not decide on that
Time will have to tell



New fads come and go.
Are laser eyes all that cool?
Here.  See for yourself.




 $100K

may a little frog
acquire shiny laser eyes,
asking for a friend

# if you can, please
haiku


 Breaking the silence
 A frog ask for laser eyes
 Little tiny eyes



 wait



 I think that's better.
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February 22, 2021, 02:19:59 AM

Is laser eyes cool
I can not decide on that
Time will have to tell



New fads come and go.
Are laser eyes all that cool?
Here.  See for yourself.




 $100K

may a little frog
acquire shiny laser eyes,
asking for a friend

# if you can, please
haiku


 Breaking the silence
 A frog ask for laser eyes
 Little tiny eyes



 wait



 I think that's better.


Supercool, much obliged, the froggy is happy. It would take some time to cache, probably.
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