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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26336930 times)
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March 22, 2021, 07:09:33 AM
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https://twitter.com/bitcoinmemehub/status/1373825140849569792?s=21

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March 22, 2021, 07:38:23 AM

My take on this is that bitcoin is a chance for humanity as a whole to transition to a better system.
It would be something akin to a cruel joke if this is somehow curtailed after 12 years in the making.

That said, the trajectory is unclear, the current patch of following the "predicted" graph notwithstanding.
Everybody expect a straight path at a 45 degree angle to 150-200K, then a typical bear market to, say, 60K.
However, we might get something that not many are prepared for-a brief and violent correction from 60-80K to 35-40K, then flat, then a rise to above 288K, maybe even above 500k.
The difference: earlier correction, then rise to higher than expected.
Personally, I am quite comfortable with a 52-60K range. In my book, it could continue for months, but how likely is this? Not very.

How bitcoin looks like in a higher inflation background? We expect it to be very bullish, albeit gold is declining despite apparently higher inflation expectations.
Does it show that inflation would be followed by a stronger deflation pulse? If so, then why oil is rising? Maybe gold is being de-monetized (in favor of btc) and gold's movement is irrelevant?

Interesting nugget: I was checking some RE around the country and it is an amazing picture. In some spots things are stable, while in others there is an incredible bump up in the last 6-12 mo. COVID effect (escape from the cities)?
What happens if you buy now at that 1.5-2X bumped price? Most likely it would slowly go down in the next 10-20 years, which makes buying in those places and prices a non-starter, hence someone cannot even exchange btc proceeds into something stable aka real estate (at favorable locations). Of course , you can buy if you want to be there, but you are bound to lose money on many of the current "deals", imho.

There will always be wafflings in regards to what the best investment(s) might be, and even including whether some other assets are over priced - and whether you also might be able to get some assets at a deal in such a way that they will either hold their value or appreciate - but in the end, there still does not seem to be any better investment than bitcoin and that should be the punchline idea - and since the vast majority of peeps (even the most bullish of bitcoin bulls) are not really suggesting to go into bitcoin 100%, the question remains about what allocation to put into bitcoin versus other allocations and whether to attempt to time any crash that might come (and if it is worth it to attempt to time such local top - including the uncertainties about whether it might crash now, at $80k, at $150k at $500k or some other number that may as well just be pulled out of a hat in terms of being able to try to figure it out with any kind of accuracy.

Anyone feeling some gitters about bitcoin, pull some value out (well that is if you actually already accumulated to your goal).  Anyone feeling that they need to or want to diversify into other investments such as real estate, sure maybe they need to look for underhyped areas, if there is such a thing.  Buying a house to live in, too, may well have some differing considerations as compared to buying various properties for investment purposes.. and surely we should realize by now that the physicality of that kind of asset for investment purposes has a certain number of drawbacks that bitcoin does not have, so in that regard, bitcoin does have some advantages in terms of being a more efficient investment vehicle than real estate - even though surely efficiencies is not going to be the ONLY consideration.

[...]

I have recalled several occasions driving by myself in a fairly spacious luxury car (think of a medium-sized SUV) and then parking in the parking lot next to someone who has a tiny car, but they are fitting a family of 7 (including dog) into a car that really should only sit 4 at most (think of a vw beetle or some small car that might be slightly larger)... and sure, I feel a bit guilty in my thinking that they would fit much more nicely in my car, and I could fit more easily into their car as one person rather than 7, but I still do not exchange cars with them, even though I already realize that it should be quite obvious that I am much better off financially than them, and I am not sure whether they might have more bonding over their ridiculous experiences of fitting so many in their car and hanging out in such proximity that would be quite uncomfortable for me.

[...]

If you did swap your car with theirs, you could be called a truly religious person, not just in name, but in substance, at least as far as Christianity is concerned. Someone once said: "If you have two shirts and your neighbour has none, you are not religious."

Although I'm an atheist, so I don't recognize any god whose teachings I should dogmatically follow, I can understand and sympathize with the situation you're describing above. The world, by its very nature, is an extremely cruel place, and one cannot survive and keep his/her sanity without having to live with, and tolerate such huge imbalances of wants, needs, and ability (or lack thereof) to fulfill them. Communism has attempted to solve the above problem, but we've all seen the consequences... IMHO, in the end, it all comes down to human nature, which is a selfish nature. Whether we like it or not, we are all programmed to survive at all costs.

So, don't feel guilty about not swapping your car with theirs. This is the expected behaviour. If you wish to help the world, just help yourself first (as you've already said), and then you'll be in a better position to help others if you so wish.

Damn, Sunday afternoon, no coffee, and here I am blabbering again...

Got to visit my dear cousin, niece & nephew today (will need to sneak past COVID-19 movement restrictions, hopefully I won't get stopped/fined).

Corn is not doing so well (relatively speaking—are we greedy or what?), the Stimulus Check pump was not even for ants, if it even materialized... Not to worry though, the real pump will come soon, and it won't be for ants. Math & science.
Have you even considered the effect of swapping a nice big car for a dinky, worn out rattletrap?  First of all, if you offered them your car, they might see you as a meddlesome, self-absorbed goody two-shoes (which might be close to the truth) and tell you to fuck off.  Or if they accepted, they might end up hating you for it.  And you would end up kicking yourself for doing such a stupid thing -- look at this smelly little rust-bucket with bad shocks I gave my nice SUV away for!
Let's be real, you ain't giving your car away.

My point was not really even seriously considering giving away my car - beyond the academic sort of going through the thought process  - unless I was on my deathbed or something and/or feeling really generous for some particular reason.  

I was just mentioning that kind of circumstance in terms of one that I frequently come across that causes me to recognize differing levels of wealth that might sometimes come out in transportation but also could come out in other ways, as well - like in what neighborhoods any of us might shop, and sometimes if we go to a more poor neighborhood, we also might find some folks who are spending a bit of time haggling over what seems to be quite small amounts of money..

And, surely, if I might go to some poorer neighborhoods, I am also thinking that some of these folks might even be considering themselves in a kind of luxury situation just having a car to be able to use and to get their group around.... so yeah, for me, it is largely just an academic exercise, and maybe sometimes there could end up coming a practical matter that arises out of the situation.  Sometimes when I go to a car dealer and I ask how much they are going to give me for my trade in, there could be a bit of offense in that, and instead of giving satisfaction to the car dealer, there could be some desire to just give my car away to someone who needs it more - and maybe not easy to judge whether they deserve it more - because it might not take very long before they might have my car run to the ground and in as bad of shape as their current wreck of a car.
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March 22, 2021, 07:58:45 AM


Haha amazing!
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March 22, 2021, 11:58:56 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1), Arriemoller (1)

Here we are, watching Bitcoin hovering around $57-58k, feeling bored and complaining that it's going sideways, with the occasional "When $60k?", "Come on, Bitcoin, do something!" and "Bitcoin dead?" memes.

Guys ('n' gal): that's $57,000 we're talking about. Fifty-seven thousand USD! Per coin!

Sure, we all want $100k, and it will reach and exceed that. But even now, this is an amazing achievement. Even if it stays at $57k for months, that's OK with me. Of course, all this is very relative and depends on stash sizes and set targets.

Some SOMA moon numbers (assuming a target of $1M):

0.1 BTC — Moon a long way away, but still doable. <— The forgotten wallet treasure.
1 BTC — Moon in 5-10 years' time, maybe sooner. <— 1 sat = $0.01 — sat/¢ parity milestone.
5 BTC — Moon in 2022. <— The reluctant HoDLer's dream.
10 BTC — Moon in 2021. <— mindrust's lost moon milestone.
21 BTC — Already on moon! <— One-in-a-million milestone.
100+ BTC — Outside of solar system! <— The early adopter's paradise (ranches & lakes included).

Good things come to those who wait.

HoDL.
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March 22, 2021, 12:14:18 PM

Guys ('n' gal): that's $57,000 we're talking about. Fifty-seven thousand USD! Per coin!

I know: Sometimes I look at old bookmarks from a year or two ago and it's like Bitcoin 6k, 3k, 10k, that sort of thing. 57k is just plain nuts when you think about it.

Wonder what we will say this time next year?
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March 22, 2021, 12:17:22 PM

Here we are, watching Bitcoin hovering around $57-58k, feeling bored [...]


Ho ho, please mind the language.

We feel f*cking bored  Grin
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March 22, 2021, 01:02:23 PM
Last edit: March 22, 2021, 01:20:50 PM by vapourminer
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so its actually fiat thats rat poison squared. huh
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March 22, 2021, 01:23:00 PM
Last edit: March 22, 2021, 01:48:42 PM by Torque
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I just listened to the Robert Kiyosaki interview with Saifedean Ammous.

It is one of the weirdest things I have ever heard.  But good.  Kiyosaki rips Saif to shreds for his absolutelist tendencies which was satisfying, but he also sort of also reinforces the bonehead boomer stereotype. (As a GenX person I get to laugh at just about every generation that matters (since our basically does not)).

https://www.richdad.com/podcasts/saifedean-ammous


I just listened to it, for someone who wrote a book, can't even answer a simple question...

RK: I've started my own Gold Mine, "Why can't I start my own Bitcoin"

Robert knows a lot about Bitcoin, but is playing dumb just to gauge the response of Saif...

I've listened to a lot of Robert Kiyosaki's podcasts where the subject of Bitcoin comes up. Robert asks that same question every single time. I think long ago when he first started asking that question, people would try to answer it by saying, "Well you absolutely can! But...many have already with forks, and..." and he would then just tune them out on their unsatisfactory (to him) answer.

So now people don't even try to answer it anymore. So then he goes around still saying "No one every seems to give me a satisfactory answer to the question: 'Why can't I just create my own Bitcoin?' "

They have, Robert. You're either just not listening, or you don't care for the answer you are receiving.

"It's not about how many Bitcoin networks are created. It's about which one of them is believed in and supported the most."
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March 22, 2021, 01:55:36 PM
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I've listened to a lot of Robert Kiyosaki's podcasts where the subject of Bitcoin comes up.

So then he goes around still saying "No one every seems to give me a satisfactory answer to the question: 'Why can't I just create my own Bitcoin?' "

Because your name isn't Japanese enough.  Tongue
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March 22, 2021, 02:26:09 PM

I just listened to the Robert Kiyosaki interview with Saifedean Ammous.

It is one of the weirdest things I have ever heard.  But good.  Kiyosaki rips Saif to shreds for his absolutelist tendencies which was satisfying, but he also sort of also reinforces the bonehead boomer stereotype. (As a GenX person I get to laugh at just about every generation that matters (since our basically does not)).

https://www.richdad.com/podcasts/saifedean-ammous


I just listened to it, for someone who wrote a book, can't even answer a simple question...

RK: I've started my own Gold Mine, "Why can't I start my own Bitcoin"

Robert knows a lot about Bitcoin, but is playing dumb just to gauge the response of Saif...

I've listened to a lot of Robert Kiyosaki's podcasts where the subject of Bitcoin comes up. Robert asks that same question every single time. I think long ago when he first started asking that question, people would try to answer it by saying, "Well you absolutely can! But...many have already with forks, and..." and he would then just tune them out on their unsatisfactory (to him) answer.

So now people don't even try to answer it anymore. So then he goes around still saying "No one every seems to give me a satisfactory answer to the question: 'Why can't I just create my own Bitcoin?' "

They have, Robert. You're either just not listening, or you don't care for the answer you are receiving.

"It's not about how many Bitcoin networks are created. It's about which one of them is believed in and supported the most."


It would be easy for an artist to make a painting similar to what Jackson Pollock did.
It's pretty much a guarantee that only those made by the latter will ever be worth $100 million+.
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March 22, 2021, 02:36:31 PM
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This happened in 2018... I remember I posted here on WO

Another reason why we need bitcoin!
Assam India

https://i.imgur.com/JehL48nl.jpg
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March 22, 2021, 03:38:54 PM

Even if it stays at $57k for months, that's OK with me.

From here.. this particular place, Bitcoin staying in a range of $53k to $61k for months is a pretty damned low likelihood... unless we go up first and correct down to here or if we merely correct below $53k - then we would be out of such range.

Sure, my estimation of the range is approximate and there is no exact science.. but we are at the TOP of a range... and there should be little to no need for me to go into any kind of detailed description of where we are at of how we got here, which thereby gives us some ideas of where we might go from here.. which is not sideways... especially for "months"... maybe for days or weeks that feels like months....

believe what you like.. but remember when we were stuck at $10k for a few weeks in September 2020, there were some peeps prognosticating getting stuck at $10k.. there is a kind of desire to fantasize about sideways, and sure the $10k situation was a bit different - but it still had seemed like a bit of a battle area that neither side was happy with and neither side was seeming likely or able to maintain.. thus causing a kind of unlikeliness of getting stuck there for any kind of meaningful or significant time. .. $53k to $61k is even more compelling of a place not to get stuck.. because peeps are not happy.. sure any of us can identify some happy peeps including you, AlcoHoDL and some other (including yours truly, hate to say), but bitcoin no give no fucks about our state of happiness nor our desires about what seems like a nice rosey picture.. Peeps not happy about where we are at - in other words, there is a war going on (whether you can see it or no), and BTC prices no gonna stay in one spot during such a war.
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March 22, 2021, 04:09:31 PM

So we have ranged between 43k and 62k for 40+ days.

well from 2/8 to 3/22 is 42 days.

so if you use that as the range we are closer to the top number 62 and not the bottom number.

For me as a miner it is stupid good to stay in this range as long as we can.

It simply looks sideways with an upwards tick.


Much like a banana looks more like a banana than anything else.

We can read what ever we want but this is what I see.
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March 22, 2021, 04:35:50 PM
Merited by JimboToronto (1), JayJuanGee (1)

I just listened to the Robert Kiyosaki interview with Saifedean Ammous.

It is one of the weirdest things I have ever heard.  But good.  Kiyosaki rips Saif to shreds for his absolutelist tendencies which was satisfying, but he also sort of also reinforces the bonehead boomer stereotype. (As a GenX person I get to laugh at just about every generation that matters (since our basically does not)).

https://www.richdad.com/podcasts/saifedean-ammous


I just listened to it, for someone who wrote a book, can't even answer a simple question...

RK: I've started my own Gold Mine, "Why can't I start my own Bitcoin"

Robert knows a lot about Bitcoin, but is playing dumb just to gauge the response of Saif...

I've listened to a lot of Robert Kiyosaki's podcasts where the subject of Bitcoin comes up. Robert asks that same question every single time. I think long ago when he first started asking that question, people would try to answer it by saying, "Well you absolutely can! But...many have already with forks, and..." and he would then just tune them out on their unsatisfactory (to him) answer.

So now people don't even try to answer it anymore. So then he goes around still saying "No one every seems to give me a satisfactory answer to the question: 'Why can't I just create my own Bitcoin?' "

They have, Robert. You're either just not listening, or you don't care for the answer you are receiving.

"It's not about how many Bitcoin networks are created. It's about which one of them is believed in and supported the most."


Yeah.. That was the "dumb boomer" part of what I experienced listening to it.   And frankly I pretty much hate the whole boomer bashing culture of BT etc.  But while he seems to be stuck like a broken record (yes, vinyl) on the whole 'why can't I make my own bitcoin' thing, he calls Saif out every SINGLE time he frames things in a completely black and white manner.  Saif might be the pinnacle of the sort of black and white thinking bitcoiners are famous for.  And of COURSE bitcoin creates black and white thinkers.  It may be the most black and white thing we ever see in our life.

But how can Kyosaki be so prescient and so dumb at the same time?  I do not think he can.  Triple digit millionaires do not get there by accident.  Anyway.. this whole cognitive dissonance is what threw me for such a loop with this podcast.

I am a keto bitcoiner.  So criticizing Ammous for his polarity is maybe a bit hypocritical.  And the crazy thing is... Bitcoin *IS* a binary bet.  Still. It's just the odds are swinging crazily in favor of the corn.  And all the "toxic bitcoiners" are right.  But this is also costly, even if it is a correct framing.

I really cringe at all the #HFSP type of positioning intelligent BTC'ers display.  But perhaps that is part of being GenX?  I am half boomer, half millennial basking in the warm glow of the corn.

I suppose I can only expect some tension.  Luckily I am being constantly enriched in the process...  lol whatever (the song of my people).
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March 22, 2021, 04:38:10 PM

I just listened to the Robert Kiyosaki interview with Saifedean Ammous.

It is one of the weirdest things I have ever heard.  But good.  Kiyosaki rips Saif to shreds for his absolutelist tendencies which was satisfying, but he also sort of also reinforces the bonehead boomer stereotype. (As a GenX person I get to laugh at just about every generation that matters (since our basically does not)).

https://www.richdad.com/podcasts/saifedean-ammous


I just listened to it, for someone who wrote a book, can't even answer a simple question...

RK: I've started my own Gold Mine, "Why can't I start my own Bitcoin"

Robert knows a lot about Bitcoin, but is playing dumb just to gauge the response of Saif...

I've listened to a lot of Robert Kiyosaki's podcasts where the subject of Bitcoin comes up. Robert asks that same question every single time. I think long ago when he first started asking that question, people would try to answer it by saying, "Well you absolutely can! But...many have already with forks, and..." and he would then just tune them out on their unsatisfactory (to him) answer.

So now people don't even try to answer it anymore. So then he goes around still saying "No one every seems to give me a satisfactory answer to the question: 'Why can't I just create my own Bitcoin?' "

They have, Robert. You're either just not listening, or you don't care for the answer you are receiving.

"It's not about how many Bitcoin networks are created. It's about which one of them is believed in and supported the most."


It would be easy for an artist to make a painting similar to what Jackson Pollock did.
It's pretty much a guarantee that only those made by the latter will ever be worth $100 million+.

If you bring up #NFTs in this topic one more time i am ignoring you! Wink Wink Wink
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March 22, 2021, 05:01:07 PM

Is Bitcoin dead?  Should I just turn it into an NFT now?
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March 22, 2021, 05:03:28 PM

I bought more calls so naturally its get to the choppa time. what a joke
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March 22, 2021, 05:33:21 PM

So we have ranged between 43k and 62k for 40+ days.

well from 2/8 to 3/22 is 42 days.

so if you use that as the range we are closer to the top number 62 and not the bottom number.

For me as a miner it is stupid good to stay in this range as long as we can.

It simply looks sideways with an upwards tick.


Much like a banana looks more like a banana than anything else.

We can read what ever we want but this is what I see.

O.k. It seems that we largely agree about what we see, but surely have differing ways of attempting to describe it and also differing ways of anticipating what remains probable, possible and/or likely to happen next.. and yeah, none of us have a crystal ball exactly, but it does remain important to consider both macro circumstances in which ongoingly peeps (including new ones) are getting into bitcoin (retail, already richie peeps and institutions) and also that since about September the "banana" or whatever you want to call it has been "happening."  So, yeah there might be a number of days or weeks or even close to month gaps between each time that king daddy has been touching upon new ATHs (starting since about November/December).

So, yeah, it seems important to consider when the last time an ATH had been reached and surely are we going to have another ATH soontm.. or are we going to coil for a while before attempting to strike the ATH again. or are we going to trickle down for a bit and have a correction...

So, yeah, I will also quibble with you a bit too Phillip in regards to your using $43k as a kind of measuring point in terms of the "range" that we are in, currently... because sure, at one point $43k was a place that we had needed to break above but we clearly broke above it about 6 weeks ago, and whether that price point really has any significant meaning at this time, besides being pulled out of your ass (hahahahahahaha), seems to remain a question future happenings rather than something that is actually grounded in the current dynamics of our lil king daddy fiend.. sure something might happen in regards to $43k... but something might happen in regards to $20k, too.. .. but still $20k seems to have about as much important as your seemingly randomly selected $43k.. in my humble bumble opinion.

By the way, I will admit that my use of $52k/$53k as the bottom of our current price range may also seem a wee bit random, and sure such range (or bottom of the current range) does seem to me to be a bit of a moving target, and likely more measureable from how far we have gone UPpity and how fast we have gone UPpity rather than attempting to measure from where we had been and whether those earlier price points might be relevant at this time.. and yeah we may well come to differing assessments regarding relevancy of earlier price points that we had crossed and the way in which we had crossed those earlier price points (suggesting whether there might be some kind of need or compelling inclination to retest them once BTC's price momentum starts to go in that direction).

To me, it does seem that when we are at the top of any price range that we happen to be in that is making new ATHs on a fairly regular basis, then anything less than around 15% price corrections (calculating from whatever latest ATH may have happened to hit) seem to be largely noise.... and going beyond 15%, such as going to $43k (which is 30%-ish) seems to be somewhat random in terms of whether BTC is likely to correct to that particular level or some other level, and surely historically we have seen all kinds of percentages of corrections that do not necessarily magically hover around 30%, even if that might feel like a nice random correction level to select.. but in the end, we could get a price correction that is anything from 15% to 60% and then end up hovering somewhere in the middle of that correction area and not even hovering at one point before dee kingie either decides to resume UPpity or decides that there is not enough buy support to keep it going UP or to even keep it flat and we end up in some longer period of DOWNity (or flat that is somewhere within a much greater than 15% correction place.. and perhaps in a 30% or even ending up in a greater than 50% correction area).

Of course, currently, many of us are considering that any BTC price correction greater than 50% is not very likely in the coming 3-18 months (apart from a flash dip).. given the ongoing macros and other factors already mentioned... so yeah, 30% may be a fair round about range to consider.. even though seemingly somewhat random in terms of attempting to figure out 1) where we are at, 2) how we got here and 3) where we might end up going, somewhat based on the first two.

Probably I have ruffled you enough for now.. hahahahahahaha.. #nohomo
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March 22, 2021, 05:35:40 PM

I bought more calls so naturally its get to the choppa time. what a joke
How about you buy some, hodl it some, and call it a month?
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March 22, 2021, 05:43:50 PM
Last edit: March 22, 2021, 06:44:28 PM by shahzadafzal

Time to buy: Gold slips; 22K price falls below Dh200 in UAE

So apparently if gold price drops it’s “Time to buy”... but if Bitcoins price drops then it’s a bubble. Wow thank you so much media.

https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/markets/time-to-buy-gold-slips-22k-price-falls-below-dh200-in-uae

Edit:

Would like to add this quote here from John Oliver’s last night show

“Lies go down easier when you want them to be true”
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