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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26336374 times)
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Arriemoller
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April 13, 2021, 07:13:32 PM


So, I was listening to the song without really listening, just assumed it was Japanese, and then I thought I heard a familiar word and later another one, so I listened from the beginning and discovered that it's actually Swedish. Just a little evening reflection.

It's basically a  "clap your hands, don't miss the chance, come on dance" type lyric.
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April 13, 2021, 07:28:26 PM

I once thought about becoming a politician.

But then sadly, I'm not a complete and utter imbecile.

Oh well. Hodle and retire early seems the best option now.  Cry




Question; how long would a politician live without any police protection available and a lack of incarceration as a consequence of murder?

The have put a fucking fence up around the capital and are using the military as their private police force.  And I hope Michigan comes to their senses and shitcans that abomination of a representative who actually hates our country.
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April 13, 2021, 07:31:20 PM

Question; how long would a politician live without any police protection available and a lack of incarceration as a consequence of murder?

They pull cops from the streets then as soon as someone raises their voice, they surround their homes with enough cops to police a small suburb.
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April 13, 2021, 07:35:06 PM

Who has enough fiat to double xrp marketcap? CBs? Crazy over-leveraged HF? Someone here?

It's already gone down again.

Long term alts don't work and short term it is easy to get burned also if you don't know what you're doing or just get unlucky.

At the prodding of a friend I actually got to looking for the 1000xrp I received in the giveaway back in two-thousand-and-tickety-boo. The online wallet was dead and the only reference I could find to a replacement also dead. I'd be very wary about paying attention to xrp market cap. It had a huge premine and I'm sure a lot of it is sitting in dead wallets like mine. It shouldn't even be in crypto charts anyway.
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April 13, 2021, 07:37:02 PM



I've got my eye on this baby that is available locally, for just north of $300k.



Problem is, I have no place to store it right now Sad Don't want to get rid of our Porsches.

Fuck.

Love this McLaren ! What's your garage actually?
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April 13, 2021, 07:42:07 PM
Merited by 20kevin20 (1)

Wow! Guys!

I've just calculated that I can now use my BTC to cover my living expenses for the next 127.2 years!

Should I quit my job?

This is tough shit.

Well if you have that much you are faced with the issue of selling some of it.

maybe 10%.

I wish I had as much as you do.

Today I sold a chunk.

The reason that you do not have anything close to as much to be able to come up with a 127.2 year figure, like AlcoHoDL is because you are (have been) selling way more than you need to and not buying enough. 

But whatever.  You do you, and we can ONLY go (act) from considering our current situation rather than what we should have done historically, and maybe at the same time, we attempt to learn from our historical mistakes (of selling too much too soon - and not buying enough -  in your case, Philip).

But I am still mining and the sale today covers my mining bills until 2022 along with allowing me my new sheds:




I will be getting 2x  8 by 14 foot models.
8800 and 2200 for prep of the landing pads.

11k in total for the sheds.  It will empty the house of all the mining parts.



Surely, if things are needed (or helpful) then nice to be able to spend value in that way.

Should I quit my job?
Oh man, should we get into a 2015-like crypto winter you may want to reconsider that job, lol.

What I'd do is keep a stash of cash for at least 12-24mo of expenses on the side just in case BTC somehow screws up for a while and YOLO.

I do agree with the idea of planning your cashflow ahead, and the more complicated the cashflow, the longer the plan ahead period should be, and perhaps the more varieties of funds to draw from, yet I doubt that having 12-24 months of cash on hand would be necessary and/or prudent use of cash.

The essence of the matter remains that each of us are likely to have a variety of sources of value that we could draw upon, and if we were to ONLY have bitcoin and cash then maybe in those kinds of limited circumstances, we would have longer periods of cash with assumptions built in that a large portion of cash flow could dry up.. but sure, even if we estimate our cashflows conservatively, in some of the worse scenarios, we might have 50% to 70% dry up, and I suppose that individuals would need to consider if 100% of their cashflow could dry up.. let's say in a circumstance of incapacitation or something like that. rather than merely a need to have to look for other work, in the event that income comes from work.... so in a scenario that bitcoin becomes the source of income, then there surely could be a back up plan to earn money from work in the event that there were a shortfall, but to many of us, that might have been an indication that the plan failed because pulling the fuck you lever was meant to not require work for financial reasons but instead for pure and complete voluntary reasons.. kind of the meaning of having had achieved "fuck you" status.
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April 13, 2021, 07:50:25 PM
Merited by JimboToronto (1)

Should I quit my job?
Oh man, should we get into a 2015-like crypto winter you may want to reconsider that job, lol.

What I'd do is keep a stash of cash for at least 12-24mo of expenses on the side just in case BTC somehow screws up for a while and YOLO.

The crypto winter was 2014.
In 2015 the recovery started from a super dip below 200 USD in January, and ended over 450 USD in December, more then a doubling. That's not exactly a bear market.
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April 13, 2021, 07:50:53 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)

Barely broke ATH and everyone is talking about cashing out..

Naaaah not cashing out bro.... 
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April 13, 2021, 07:58:21 PM

Barely broke ATH and everyone is talking about cashing out..

Naaaah not cashing out bro.... 

Bitcoin is and will be safety against inflation, many should realize
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April 13, 2021, 08:02:38 PM
Last edit: April 14, 2021, 06:24:09 AM by Searing
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1), dakiller322 (1)

By the By today is my 8th Year Anniversary of finding out about Bitcoin! April 13th, 2013!

Wall Observer Started on April 16th, 2013!

Quite the wild ride!

I found out about BTC and signed on to www.bitcointalk.org on this date of 4/13/2013!

Same day! For both anniversaries! Three days later WO started on 4/16/2013!

Kinda cool it has an ATH today too boot! Same for the Stock Market! Smiley

I mined my first BTC on a KNC 550gh Jupiter Miner that I ordered on July 1st, 2013, and got October 18th, 2013. It was full of water...soggy box....and I had

to email tech support in that, it had no switch! Take a paperclip put electrical tape at one end after cutting it in half and short the motherboard connector

of the PSU on pin 8, I think it was. To say I was in 'complete' dismay was an understatement! I paid frigging $5,131.80 with shipping from Sweden and

after this hell of a day doing /SSH and hairdryer use to get the water out and re-attach loose crap inside..flashing the SD on top of waiting all day for DHL

to deliver it...I was a wreck! Shorted the pins, looked at the BTC price at that point at least once that day it was $150.00 even, and made about 1 BTC a day!

I then sat in the puddle on the basement floor depressed as hell, in that I could have bought BTC July 1st on this 'dubious' miner at like $79 bucks or some

such...and now at $150 BTC it 'obviously' was gonna crash to $25 again. FML!

Tough day, but boy was I wrong......lol Smiley

Been Quite the ride, may the next 8 years be also as rewarding for fun/profit!

Sometimes being a 'clueless' newbie really, really pays off! Smiley

Brad
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April 13, 2021, 08:14:48 PM

Barely broke ATH and everyone is talking about cashing out..
Naaaah not cashing out bro.... 

It's called "taking a little bit off the top"  Cool
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April 13, 2021, 08:15:48 PM



I'm 100% positive we have to thank Charles and his magic powers for this new ATH.
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April 13, 2021, 08:18:58 PM

Why was it wet? did DHL drop it in a pool or something?
And how did it work once you got it going?

@ Searing
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April 13, 2021, 08:30:56 PM

[edited out]

I like to leave room for the chance that I am wrong so I kept both. That's all I'll say about the fork here because that's all that's relevant but I have a few opinions about it.

I would suggest that one of the ONLY things that might be relevant about the actual fork is how each of us dealt with it.  Yes, we got airdropped coins, and I would not even fault anyone who hung onto their bcash (just in case), so I personally do not necessarily believe that you should have gotten 5% to 20% extra from selling your bcash - even though many of the bitcoin maximalist types (including yours truly to the extent it is fair to categorize me - and maybe I got in the 6% to 8% territory for my bcash.. not really sure, exactly).

So, then the question comes about how did you treat your bitcoin / bcash stash after August 2017 until present.

Did you just stop buying anything during that period?  or would you only buy one or the other?

So you know where I ended up going, so any purchases or extra cashflow that I got would get plugged into my bitcoin system, and yeah maybe I did end up increasing some of my bitcoin stash during 2017 until present through my buying behaviors that were ONLY around bitcoin, except for my selling of whatever bcash that I had that was mostly completed by early 2018 (either December 2017 for my coinbase issuance and probably January or soon thereafter for mostly just stragglers that I found in various random locations).

If you followed a strict equal treatment policy, then you would have attempted to keep them balanced so if you bought .1BTC then you may well buy .1 bcash, too.. unless you bought the same dollar amounts which would have caused you to buy more bcash.. and then if you were holding bcash by around November 15, 2018, then you would have been issued bcash SV - which I believe that I did not get any except maybe an account that had issued my bcash and bcash SV in 2019 or 2020...based on my August 2017 holdings of bitcoin on their platform (Circle is one example off the top of my head).

By the way, my mindset about bitcoin and my various strategies regarding how much to allocate into BTC kind of developed over time, so my initial allocation of x amount for 6 months between December 2013 and May 2014 ended up getting renewed with another 6 month authorization which ended up converting into kinds of thoughts about percentage of allocation into BTC by the end of the second 6 months... and then my 2015 continuing buying of BTC did not really cause me to consider that I should stop buying BTC, but did end up causing me to NOT be so attached to BTC in the event that I wanted to develop strategies to sell BTC if the price were to start to go up... so I never did really get away from my being overly allocated in Bitcoin, and even when the sim port hacker removed me from my bitcoin, I was probably still over-allocated in bitcoin in spite of having a pretty decent quantity of them removed from me. 


but if you are worried that lumber prices might have doubled in the past several months, that really should seem like a BIG so fucking what for anyone who actually adequately prepared for bitcoin UPpity in the recent years...

Frugal living can be a hard habit to break. You should see my car. But just as you talk about preparing for "uppity", spending more than is needed is similarly antithetical to benefiting from that movement. We are talking about what could be an $8000 shed probably coming out at around $15,000 or more in this market. That's a difference not to be sniffed at.

Fair enough about the frugal living angle.  It could be that I was reading too much into your whole situation, and each of us are going to draw the frugality lines in differing areas.  I am not sure because I can kind of relate to what you are saying, and I feel that I began to learn how to spend more and to splurge on myself in about 2010 when I bought my first new car (prior to that I always bought cars that were between around 4 to 8 years old), but once I bought the new car (a mid class luxury car), I felt god about that splurge.. but surely I traded the 2010 in for a 2011.. which was another splurge but I still have the 2011.. so maybe I am a bit of a curmudgeon that can relate to you. but I feel that I am not geographically tied down enough to buy another new car.. but there is something nice about driving a new car with a lot of bells and whistles.. but surely and items that depreciates a lot so I can relate to that part - even though after already having a lot of money, there should not be too much concerns about depreciations.

By the way some mid-class luxury cars will be in the $60k to $100k level and depreciate by half or more in 3 years.. and sure some regular class cars will only cost between $15k and $30k new.. so there is that angle too.. that the luxury car is depreciating as much (if not more) as it would have cost for the regular class car.

Sheds should hold or appreciate in value as compared with cars.. but maybe that does depend on location and if your property is already overbuilt or if you anticipate many years of usage out of such shed.
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April 13, 2021, 08:33:58 PM

You are not going to live another 127 years anyway ...

hey!

all we need to do is survive till the life extensions drugs become available (to the rich 1st of course)  come on boosterspice!
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April 13, 2021, 08:34:41 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Wow! Guys!

I've just calculated that I can now use my BTC to cover my living expenses for the next 127.2 years!

Should I quit my job?

This is tough shit.

Yeah but how are you calculating the value?  based on $63k?  Sure you might get lucky, but we should not be basing our fuck-you lever pulling planning on luck (not to bring up luck again, because luck might be a past appreciation rather than something that you anticipate as a given, especially "good" luck).

If you are using $63k or anything close to that, then that kind of framing would not be a good measure.. there are peeps here that you could ask about their experiences in doing that (I am not going to provide names).  

Now if you are using some other kind of calculation, would be interesting to hear about it.  

You know my measure, which is currently just over $11k and seems to be going up a few hundred every week.. so in no time, we should be supra $20k with that one.. I am sure that there are other less conservative measures, and I suppose that those could be used as well for guys who might be on the margins (or is it on the cusp?  or on the threshold) of pulling the fuck you lever.. and not clear about if it would be too risky..

Also, is your 127.2 years accounting for medical?

By the way, any calculation that can go as far as 127.2 years, should also be able to have a built in function to figure out an amount (that might be slightly lower) that is perpetual.. meaning that you are ONLY living off of the passive income... of course, since all of us are mortal, we could have a kind of provision that ends up UPping the spending in what we project to be our last years of life in order to use up most or all of it - to the extent that we are not planning to pass on wealth.

By the way (II), even though I am using a calculator that only is currently giving me $11k per coin, right now, I am actually using 12% per year as an amount that I can withdraw based on that indicator rather than the traditional 4%.. so the low number is not as bad as it might seem, and it still gives me numbers that are quite great, even for my situation and projecting into the future.. I mean I already have income coming in that I am trying to surpass in order that I can start dipping into my corns.

Jay, and to the others who commented on my above quoted post:

This was a quick calculation based on $63k/BTC, but take into consideration that I'm not going to live another 127.2 years. A more realistic number would be 40 years, based on some standard life expectancy estimate. Doing the math & science on that, we end up with a more conservative Bitcoin valuation of about $20k/BTC. This is pretty close to where your 208-week moving average indicator is soon going to be, so I'm not too far off there, am I? My calculation was only meant as a semi-joke, which was sparked by a meeting we had today at work, where I disagreed on a few things, and almost threw a "fuck you" on the table, thanks to King Daddy.

No, my calculation does not include medical. My government will provide it once I reach a certain age, but not earlier (if I'm unemployed), which is an important factor to consider.

No, I'm not planning to quit my job just yet, but the fact that I can do it gives me peace of mind and enables me to handle things better and to my advantage.

Dabs gave a good answer. Also, I appreciate Jimbo's comment on frugal living, which certainly adds years to my calculation.
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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April 13, 2021, 08:43:27 PM

Barely broke ATH and everyone is talking about cashing out..

well its been like a whole week since ive bought a new toy. i mean YOLO right?
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April 13, 2021, 08:43:42 PM


+1

+1 WOsMerit

Ain't nuttin' like the real thing (aka king daddy aka the corn aka... well if you're reading you know what I mean.)

My SOMA system says: it's gonna deflate in due time. King daddy isn't.
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April 13, 2021, 08:44:32 PM


Also, is your 127.2 years accounting for medical?


Some countries are less skimpy in providing medical care to their citizens as US of A. There is that.

Yea, I know, they had to pay bigger and badder taxes in the interim, but the sight of 60-61 year olds being fired en masse by the efficient US corporate system with such people having to fill 5 years doing some random work to pass the time until Medicare kicks in (at 65) is something that you cannot think about positively, really.

This is not my situation, mind you, but a good friend of ours was let go at 61 (from highly specialized company) and had to move back to Canada (her native land) to get medical care after being in US for most of her adult life.

Otherwise, in US it is ACA, which does not allow any decent money to be made before slapping $20K/year or above cost on you for minimal benefits.
We like to be brutal to our constituents/citizens, but, hey, bitcoin ownership fixes this.

Part of the reason that I asked AlcoHoDL about the medical issue is because he mentioned it as an issue.

I don't know if bitcoin fixes the medical costs issues, yet.  Of course, if you are able to increase your amount of bitcoin to be able to account for the costs, then that might help your situation, and surely it is complicated to have differing standards in different countries, and if you are traveling - across jurisdictions, there can be questions regarding coverage as well.

Wow! Guys!

I've just calculated that I can now use my BTC to cover my living expenses for the next 127.2 years!

Should I quit my job?

This is tough shit.

Don't quit just yet. However, you could cash out the equivalent of maybe 5 years to act as a buffer, then you can live on that for about 5 years. The rest of the 122.2 years worth, kept in BTC, might appreciate some more. Gives you time to think about what to really do in 5 years.

Your job will allow you to look "normal" for the time being, and your attitude may change somewhat as you should be more secure and relatively happier in life.

You are not going to live another 127 years anyway ...

The other thing to consider is to cash out 25 years worth, put that in traditional investments, and live on the interests alone for the next 30+ years. You will still have 100+ years worth of bitcoin, which, in 25 years time, could be worth a thousand years of living expenses. Then you could go crazy, or do whatever you want, within reason.

I am not really in disagreement with what you say Dabs, but there is a lot of valuing of wealth in dollars in this response, and sure of course, there can be ways to calculate the formula that cashes out some and keeps other parts in bitcoin, but even with bitcoin, its not like we just consider pie in the sky expectations about what it is going to do in the future.  We have reasonable models that can help us to consider how much to cash out and when and to continue to rely on such models without pricing BTC at the top, but instead attempting to price BTC at the bottom so that we know if we have enough based on the bottoms, not necessarily the top.  Sure, you price BTC at the top at moments where you might cash out portions at that top and then put those portions in other places, otherwise pricing BTC at the bottom and coming up with formulations based on the bottom seems way more practical and prudent from my point of view.
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April 13, 2021, 09:21:18 PM

Well I just got a nice brand new 30 amp hardwired service run out to my little work shed. Conduit, direct run, Square D service panel, the works.

My little S9 miner is now happily chugging away. Before it pulled 13a and was dragging a 120 volt line run via a 10 gauge extension cord down to 105 volts. Now the voltage drop goes from 120 to 117.

*Wow*. I am a happy camper. No more ghetto class power in there for me.
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