Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[DireWolfM14]

they are not going to stack the supreme court.

just talk.

*munches popcorn*

Hodl bitcoin and IMR4895.

[1714011495]

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[JayJuanGee]

Lessons from my past shitcoin purchases:

Converting from Bitcoin to ETH:
If I had kept my ETH in BTC the value of my coins would be higher.

Converting ETH to DeFi shitcoins:
If I had kept my DeFi shitcoins in ETH the value of my coins would be higher.

So:

BTC > ETH > DeFi shitcoins

“It requires wisdom to understand wisdom; the music is nothing if the audience is deaf.”
- Walter Lippmann

BTC > ETH > DeFi shitcoins

It kinda depends on when you went in. Had you joined the ETH ICO, they were giving 2000 ETH for every 1 BTC you put in. If you had held all this time since then that 1 BTC which turned into 2000 ETH is worth about $5m today.

As for all the other ICOs and DeFi tokens, maybe that's riskier, but for a lot of them back in 2017-ish, you could join the ICO and get out within a week after the ICO and you'd have at least doubled or tripled, but again, it's risky. Today, apparently some die within hours or days of launching. Some have some sort of staying power but the price still goes down.

Why would we (royal we, perhaps?) want to be putting positive spins on various shitcoins especially in these here parts?  Seems like a mostly irrelevant area (surely slippery-slope prone) to be getting into.

Well exactly the way you said it... “depends on when you went in”, and with this logic I can argue even today in 2021 Bitcoin isn’t the best performing. Right?

That’s why when we say BTC > ETH (or any other shitcoin) we are only talking about the long term. Yes we can earn short term profit and make it a way to acquire more bitcoins but at end Bitcoin is the only store of value.

In general I agree with what you say, however, if you went in at the beginning or the start of Ethereum, I supposed that should qualify as "long term". It has different uses. But if you went in at almost any few months or years after the ICO, then yeah, that kind of long term not from the start wouldn't make as much profit.

Short term can go either way for any shitcoin.

I keep an open mind about the bigger coins and some of their tokens.

Your "keeping an open" mind likely contributed to your getting royally fucked in the path, and so you seem to be unwilling or unable to learn any lessons, and for some reason you believe that investing in some piece of shit like Ethereum has any kind of meaningful long term viability - even though it is just smoke and mirror bullshit that has other smoke and mirror (including a large number of scams) building on top of it.

Most of them are probably either not worth looking at unless you know some good references that are in that particular space, but even then they are all risky bets.

Well at least you recognize that there is some risk there, but surely, you are able to identify the few supposed gems, right?

I'd go in for the tech, and this holds true, for example, for some use cases or features, such as privacy, or particular smart contracts or something else.

Oh gawd...    Now we are going to devolve into details of what makes a good shitcoin not to be shit?

When BTC started, in the first couple of years, most everyone was in for the tech, and had random people sending thousands of BTC to each other and 5 from the faucet and what would seem like absurd amounts.. 10k for pizza and all that.

Sure, a lot of shitcoiner get into troubles when they are starting to attempt to compare their shitty project to bitcoin.. and to say bitcoin "historically" did this, this and this, and therefore it is logical that shitcoin x, y or z, could do blah blah blah..

yeah right...    Surely, misplaced attempts at analogies.

This is where amounts below $100 per whole BTC coin doesn't make much sense to include in calculations since it was not really that much valued yet, from an earlier discussion in this thread.

There are a lot of ways to attempt to assess bitcoin's historical value, and whether it might have been overpriced or underpriced, but still seems to be a bit of a waste of time if attempting to make some assertions about what some other coin (shitcoin) might or might not do... and even it has a lot of ways of interpreting to plot the prices where bitcoin has been,  where it is at right now and then trying to say that it was over or undervalued at certain points, but even some of those assessments might have some assumptions regarding where bitcoin is going.. even though such assessments could also just make historical assessments based on where bitcoin prices are at this particular time.  

So then the question might concern how any of us might be using such assessments.  Are we trying to figure out our bitcoin allocation versus other assets or are we trying to use that to figure out whether to get into shitcoins and if so, to make assessments regarding how much?

[Biodom]

Does Trezor (using webwallet and not Electrum) supports BECH32 (bc1-adresses), especially sending (and getting back correct change, lol)?
I am getting mixed indications by googling.

[BayAreaCoins]

Does Trezor (using webwallet and not Electrum) supports BECH32 (bc1-adresses), especially sending (and getting back correct change, lol)?
I am getting mixed indications by googling.

Yes, the new model for sure.  I've not used an old model in a while, but I'm pretty sure too.

[JayJuanGee]

You believe that his hero status (or might we say legend status) removes some of his ideas from being criticized?  Furthermore, when I said that "saylor can go fuck himself" did you not consider that some of the intention of my comment might have been directed at Dabs for idolizing what someone said?

I do not idolize what someone says, just merely repeating what someone says and that he is the one who said it to lend credence to whatever he said. So I don't have to say it myself (even if it's something that I could agree with.)

I read a few other articles about UPpitty going all the way to $50 million to $100 million per coin, and all logic (or no logic maybe) points to a similar conclusion long term.

As a few others have mentioned, Bitcoin can not be killed at this point without killing the internet.

I mean, the damn Pirate Bay is still alive today serving torrents of the latest giant monster movies or what.

I don't disagree with you on any of the substantive points.. and remember that people say all kinds of shit, and it is probably not a bad practice to make some immediate assessments regarding how much validity that you give to the comments of others in order to help to lessen criticisms that you cited them because you agree with them.  Ultimately, your various substantive points, including your further elaboration on what you said earlier do not even contradict my previous posts on the topic.

[Dabs]

Enuff with the offtopic now. Y'all know i'm a weed connoisseur, already 

What's a good popular strain these days? I read something about Northern Lights... but that seems to be a generic name for plenty of them and all different too. It happens to be a name for a fitness brand too.

[MERlT]

Enuff with the offtopic now. Y'all know i'm a weed connoisseur, already 

What's a good popular strain these days? I read something about Northern Lights... but that seems to be a generic name for plenty of them and all different too. It happens to be a name for a fitness brand too.

"Blockstrains"

[modrobert]

As a few others have mentioned, Bitcoin can not be killed at this point without killing the internet.

After being reminded of a Gandhi quote today...

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

Personally being there pretty much from the beginning, it feels relevant regarding Bitcoin adoption, every step of the way.

[Dabs]

Why would we (royal we, perhaps?) want to be putting positive spins on various shitcoins especially in these here parts?  Seems like a mostly irrelevant area (surely slippery-slope prone) to be getting into.

I'm not putting any spins on anything, just stating what would have happened based on the facts. I also did not invest or put in any into ETH back then. I don't do so now, even if I am aware there will be positive price moves. So I'm not putting any more money into any shitcoins. I understand completely that you are a BTC maxi of pure blood with zero altcoin diversification, and that's not an issue with me.

Your "keeping an open" mind likely contributed to your getting royally fucked in the path, and so you seem to be unwilling or unable to learn any lessons, and for some reason you believe that investing in some piece of shit like Ethereum has any kind of meaningful long term viability - even though it is just smoke and mirror bullshit that has other smoke and mirror (including a large number of scams) building on top of it.

Nah, I got into trouble due to other mistakes I made unrelated to BTC or other shitcoins. I've only put in there what I consider to be disposable for the asymmetrical bet, and ended up joining a few swaps from coins to tokens and such.

As for long term viability, I do not have a strong opinion other than that large institutions are getting into them, and they surely know more than us, unless you perceive yourself to be more knowledgeable than them billionaires and hedge fund peeps.

I am also aware that, for example, Saylor and Saifedeen and pure BTC maxi's, and don't bother at all with anything else, and everything else is a shitcoin. So there's that (or them.)

Well at least you recognize that there is some risk there, but surely, you are able to identify the few supposed gems, right?

I already did, but I am never here to shill any other altcoin or fork. I'm keeping those to myself, not because I am greedy or I think I know it, but it's something I got into a few years ago and they are giving me decent returns, which in turn I'm either cashing out constantly to fiat, or to BTC.

Oh gawd...    Now we are going to devolve into details of what makes a good shitcoin not to be shit?

No need if you don't want to. Can be none of your concern right? Let the shitcoiners be shitcoiners. Not an attitude I would do personally, but to each his own.

Sure, a lot of shitcoiner get into troubles when they are starting to attempt to compare their shitty project to bitcoin.. and to say bitcoin "historically" did this, this and this, and therefore it is logical that shitcoin x, y or z, could do blah blah blah..

yeah right...    Surely, misplaced attempts at analogies.

Nah, it's just the way software development goes for those who look at the tech without the supposed value of them. There were plenty of distributed computing projects that used computing power with no monetary compensation, yet people joined and contributed, you know, prime numbers, seti@home, folding proteins, all that stuff.

That a particular coin or token decides to use a blockchain or fork off from bitcoin or fork off from a fork of something, and do something with it, without assigning any value to them (aka, no doing an ICO, not actively trying to get listed on centralized exchanges, letting it grow on it's own ..) well, it's the type of thing where you can just wait and see, and if you have any disposable money to gamble with, as opposed to playing dice or poker, throw it in there.

The tech behind bitcoin which was hashcash used pow to attempt to limit email spam. That did not really work because of the lack of adoption. But the tech is still the tech, and it's what is powering the proof of work behind bitcoin now.

So then the question might concern how any of us might be using such assessments.  Are we trying to figure out our bitcoin allocation versus other assets or are we trying to use that to figure out whether to get into shitcoins and if so, to make assessments regarding how much?

That is entirely up to you. Again, I completely understand you, and a plenty of others would not waste any time looking at allocations. I would not either.

What I do have are some options that have been there since a few years ago.

If you can think of what I am doing or did as analogous to mining shitcoins to get more BTC, then that might make sense to you. Some miners here mine altcoins, to end up acquiring more BTC.

I have what I have and it's currently paying my rent (or part of it.) with no more being put into it than what I threw into it a few years ago. I think that's decent.

Is it a shitcoin? Most likely, probably, by the definition that it is not bitcoin, then yes.

Otherwise, almost everyone I deal with knows me as a sorta BTC maxi as well. I tell everyone else to just do bitcoin too, no alts. They can research all they want, but I can't endorse them, even if I am making decent coin with them right now.

[OutOfMemory]

Enuff with the offtopic now. Y'all know i'm a weed connoisseur, already  

What's a good popular strain these days? I read something about Northern Lights... but that seems to be a generic name for plenty of them and all different too. It happens to be a name for a fitness brand too.

I don't know what's popular, actually. I don't share my passion with many people. Only the anonymity of the interweb makes me willing to talk about that topic, which i normally avoid, especially in public. You wouldn't recognize that i do weed, even if you know me for longer time. One of my brothers in law does too, we shared some good times in the past, but he still doesn't know that i do. He's nice, but too talkative.

I prefer original strains, but they are genetically contaminated nowadays when you buy them. Through coincidence i met an old lady who is growing strains from the 70s, they're nowhere as strong as modern strains, but i really like them for alternation and when i need to use my faulty brain a lot (creating annual tax report for my wife's business, for example).
I like colorful stuff a lot, like original purple haze, skunks, the juicy more modern bubblegum and blueberry variants, and for the last few years mostly i got more modern, random stuff like white russian, atomic haze, soma, ak-47, white widow, bubba kush. Unfortunately that door is closed now, because the dude that delivered it sold his car, living a few hundred miles away, but the quality was awesome, bioorganically grown, highly potent weed in vacuum bags, only slightly compressed.

Sorry for drifting off. Northern Lights? A classic, also popular. Quite psychedelic, it doesn't just fog your brain and put you to sleep. One of the first strains i smoked back then, in the early 90s, of which i also actually knew the name. Went to amsterdam to get awesome qualities of this strain. I think it was a "cannabis cup" winner (by well known "sensi seeds" company) back then. But as i said, should be hard to get hold of genetically unaltered NL buds/plants/seeds nowadays.

EDIT: I just realized that i don't remember the name of any real modern strain i had. All i mentioned so far were at least on the market for 10 yrs. and more. 
I'd really like to try "california green", but i am not in a position to get hold of it anytime soon.
 

[bitcoinPsycho]

Logically, if everything stays the same, after a halving event, the price of BTC should simply double. But some things are not the same and there are lots of little variables we can't even consider, and that sometimes the market prices part of it in, or does not, or has a delayed reaction.

Users who are not miners are often not aware of what halving means. They just buy or sell coins.

What we have seen historically is that on or around the date of halving, the price tends to do a multiple over a few months after.

My dumb and naive math puts BTC at $1m before 2027, or even as early as 2025 (a year after the next halving).

After a couple more halvings, so 2028 and 2032, we should be above $5 million to $10 million per coin.

This is pure poetry.  This matches my calculations exactly 

[20kevin20]

History has proven us so many times that whenever Bitcoin drops, it stomps all shitcoins through the ground. I only see these nonsense alt hypes as an opportunity to multiply my Bitcoins because why the heck not. But then I found an answer: because it's risky AF.

Since I've taken a look at the markets when Bitcoin pumped a bit just a few days ago, I only keep seeing that whenever Bitcoin pumps, everyone gives no more fucks about shitcoins and jumps ASAP into the Bitcoin boat. Looking at the charts makes it seem like multiplying BTC through shitcoin seasons is an easy job, but hell no it isn't, lol. Anyway, this all proves that the only reason people get into shitcoins is that they want profit. Talking about "how good their tech is" is more BS than not, since >99% of the people only say that about a coin because they're not earning as much profit through it as Daddy Bitcoin rewards us. Shitcoins reward you... shit. And sure, I couldn't agree more with @JayJuanGee, timing all those back-and-forths is a pain in the arse and you never know when the fire gets you while the BTC rocket launches off the ground.

So yeah. In the end, even if BNB, ETH or whatever other nonsense coin dumps to the ground, the chances of Bitcoin doing the same are slim. On the other hand tho, Bitcoin dropping 20% in a day could make any coin drop even 50% in the same period of time. Bitcoin's the king, and it always will be. BTC FTW.

but I can"t lie - I still want so much more BTC, damn it!

[AlcoHoDL]

[ lots of intriguing vaping/weed stuff ]

Enuff with the offtopic now. Y'all know i'm a weed connoisseur, already  

Wow, I'm intrigued, OOM. You are a weed connoisseur.

Okay, let me say this: the thing I said earlier about not having smoked in my entire life was not 100% true. I've smoked once. And it was cannabis! Yes! When in college, and next to a gorgeous girl, in her dorm room. Great times. Nirvana's Nevermind playing on a cassette tape, and we were smoking one joint at a time, passing it between us. Earlier there was another girl that prepared the joints for us. She was an expert. She mixed normal tobacco with the cannabis stuff, and rolled them. I was, still am, a newbie in this sort of thing. If it was me, I would have put all the cannabis in! We had a great time. I remember feeling like I was inside a rocket flying high, accelerating upwards. If only I could turn back time...

And I've also "eaten" magic mushrooms. Yes! Are you supposed to eat them? That's what I think the guy that gave them to us said. Anyway, we made the mistake of splitting one dose between me and her. Didn't feel a thing. Never tried anything ever again. I saw a comment by a WOer here a couple of days ago, about mushrooms defragmenting your brain. That sounds so cool, as my brain needs some serious defragmenting, I can feel it. But I don't know where to get them...

OOM, if there's anything related and you don't mind, I'll be PMing you.

[20kevin20]

My dumb and naive math puts BTC at $1m before 2027, or even as early as 2025 (a year after the next halving).

After a couple more halvings, so 2028 and 2032, we should be above $5 million to $10 million per coin.

Quite close to my maths, which are quite bad generally but I seem to get most Bitcoin rally predictions right somehow, lol.

But damn, $10M per coin would mean 2.3x today's existing fiat money in the entire world. If BTC gets to $10M, I guess fiat will be worth close to how much the Hungarian Pengo was back in 1946 vs the USD. Virtually worthless.

But considering today's economical situation in the world, are we really that far from this kind of situation? Like honestly, wtf, the US gov has printed around $27,000,000,000 a DAY in 2020... 22% of the circulating USD supply has been printed within one year.. just imagine all this money going straight into Bitcoin: https://youtube.com/watch?v=4ZQXH28qbOg

Can you imagine that $2B truck is just 32k BTC? A friggin' truckload of $100 bills We're screwed, man.

[Dabs]

Logically, if everything stays the same, after a halving event, the price of BTC should simply double. But some things are not the same and there are lots of little variables we can't even consider, and that sometimes the market prices part of it in, or does not, or has a delayed reaction.

Users who are not miners are often not aware of what halving means. They just buy or sell coins.

What we have seen historically is that on or around the date of halving, the price tends to do a multiple over a few months after.

My dumb and naive math puts BTC at $1m before 2027, or even as early as 2025 (a year after the next halving).

After a couple more halvings, so 2028 and 2032, we should be above $5 million to $10 million per coin.

This is pure poetry.  This matches my calculations exactly 

My calcs start at 100k in 2021 and go up 1.5x to 1.9x every year, I made two columns.
In the year 2038, I end up with 41m and 140m respectively.

I'm still alive then, the numbers look a bit too high, but ... even if it's not that high, it should be at least $20 million by then.

[BitcoinBunny]

History has proven us so many times that whenever Bitcoin drops, it stomps all shitcoins through the ground. I only see these nonsense alt hypes as an opportunity to multiply my Bitcoins because why the heck not. But then I found an answer: because it's risky AF.

Since I've taken a look at the markets when Bitcoin pumped a bit just a few days ago, I only keep seeing that whenever Bitcoin pumps, everyone gives no more fucks about shitcoins and jumps ASAP into the Bitcoin boat. Looking at the charts makes it seem like multiplying BTC through shitcoin seasons is an easy job, but hell no it isn't, lol. Anyway, this all proves that the only reason people get into shitcoins is that they want profit. Talking about "how good their tech is" is more BS than not, since >99% of the people only say that about a coin because they're not earning as much profit through it as Daddy Bitcoin rewards us. Shitcoins reward you... shit. And sure, I couldn't agree more with @JayJuanGee, timing all those back-and-forths is a pain in the arse and you never know when the fire gets you while the BTC rocket launches off the ground.

So yeah. In the end, even if BNB, ETH or whatever other nonsense coin dumps to the ground, the chances of Bitcoin doing the same are slim. On the other hand tho, Bitcoin dropping 20% in a day could make any coin drop even 50% in the same period of time. Bitcoin's the king, and it always will be. BTC FTW.

but I can"t lie - I still want so much more BTC, damn it!

I agree with this very much. I also considered the back and forth in the past but I have pointed out several times recently it makes no sense as in the long run no alt keeps up with BTC unless you have impeccable timing. It seems to me the alt back and forth thing is heavily manipulated by individuals who have the power to do so.
Not going to ride that wave.

HODL in BTC only.

[Wekkel]

[...]

Where above do you currently fit!....

[..]

Looks like Bill Gates has to move aside. I'm coming through 

[BitcoinBunny]

My dumb and naive math puts BTC at $1m before 2027, or even as early as 2025 (a year after the next halving).

After a couple more halvings, so 2028 and 2032, we should be above $5 million to $10 million per coin.

Quite close to my maths, which are quite bad generally but I seem to get most Bitcoin rally predictions right somehow, lol.

But damn, $10M per coin would mean 2.3x today's existing fiat money in the entire world. If BTC gets to $10M, I guess fiat will be worth close to how much the Hungarian Pengo was back in 1946 vs the USD. Virtually worthless.

But considering today's economical situation in the world, are we really that far from this kind of situation? Like honestly, wtf, the US gov has printed around $27,000,000,000 a DAY in 2020... 22% of the circulating USD supply has been printed within one year.. just imagine all this money going straight into Bitcoin: https://youtube.com/watch?v=4ZQXH28qbOg

Can you imagine that $2B truck is just 32k BTC? A friggin' truckload of $100 bills We're screwed, man.

That video was very eerie with that music.

As if you are watching the Titanic sink. People so sure of themselves in an unsinkable giant vessel. In the end nothing can stop doom for most passengers.

It's the same with the ridiculous HS2 train line project in the UK.
£100 billion, as if it is nothing. They are estimating it may cost double that. Work that out per citizen, crazy.
It can never pay for itself, impossible. It will not help most people in the UK. The autonomous car is around the corner. Who in their right mind would get on a train when you can phone a robot Uber or have a robot Uber drive you anywhere?

You can literally build 10,000 (!!) £10 million leisure centres in the UK for £100 billion. Put countless people to work all over the country.
Now wouldn't that be a good way to combat poor health also?

Nah- let's build a single train line.

$2 trillion!! Sick in the head.

[AlcoHoDL]

Shit guys, if there's no 7 in front anytime soon, I'll die of boredom.

[OutOfMemory]

[ lots of intriguing vaping/weed stuff ]

Enuff with the offtopic now. Y'all know i'm a weed connoisseur, already  

Wow, I'm intrigued, OOM. You are a weed connoisseur.

Okay, let me say this: the thing I said earlier about not having smoked in my entire life was not 100% true. I've smoked once. And it was cannabis! Yes! When in college, and next to a gorgeous girl, in her dorm room. Great times. Nirvana's Nevermind playing on a cassette tape, and we were smoking one joint at a time, passing it between us. Earlier there was another girl that prepared the joints for us. She was an expert. She mixed normal tobacco with the cannabis stuff, and rolled them. I was, still am, a newbie in this sort of thing. If it was me, I would have put all the cannabis in! We had a great time. I remember feeling like I was inside a rocket flying high, accelerating upwards. If only I could turn back time...

And I've also "eaten" magic mushrooms. Yes! Are you supposed to eat them? That's what I think the guy that gave them to us said. Anyway, we made the mistake of splitting one dose between me and her. Didn't feel a thing. Never tried anything ever again. I saw a comment by a WOer here a couple of days ago, about mushrooms defragmenting your brain. That sounds so cool, as my brain needs some serious defragmenting, I can feel it. But I don't know where to get them...

OOM, if there's anything related and you don't mind, I'll be PMing you.

Thanks.
Cool story, btw. I also smoked the first J with a girl, but she wasn't pretty LOL
Didn't feel anything for the first six times, but the seventh time i got hit really nice, it was almost too much and i had to walk home through dark parks and alleys, got scared a little.

Here's my advice on MM: Especially the first few times, don't do it alone. You should be able to get a "mushroom box" somewhere and grow your own. Moisture, warm, constant environment temperature and no direct light will get things growing. If they're potent, you will likely have phantastic and wild organic trip, unlike the clear, transparent quality of LSD. You can snap out of a bad trip on LSD easily, while it's not as easy on shrooms and you might vomit your guts out. Which is some kind of defragmentation as well, if you put it that way  
No joke: Look for experienced, trustful company for the first time. Maybe there are "phantasy group trip" offers in other countries, might well be worth a visit.

Alternative: Try microdosing and slowly step up. You'd need a couple of days in between to achieve the same ratio of potency each time, because your metabolism will adapt to a degree in the range of less than a week. MM do a lot for your life experience through microdosing, everything becomes more vivid and alive or soulful, without overflowing your brain with science fiction like mythical sensations.  

EDIT: Might be worth to mention that i had my last full dosed shroom experience around 20 years ago. It almost destroyed an old friendship. Turned out later that my friend was full of shit, anyway. I basically saw and felt his true nature but didn't believe the vibes. I was taught better in the end.