Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

The 4% "safe withdrawal" rate comes from a "passive investment" in a broad based index or mutual fund of approximately 60% stocks and equities, and 40% bonds. Putting your money in the S&P 500 or a Total Stock Market fund would achieve similar results.

The study also uses 30 years as a retirement number, how long you can stay retired.

There are several calculators out there, but you can try for example firecalc.com

If you input $1m and $40k as annual withdrawal for 30 years, you get a 95% success rate. Out of 120 possible 30 year cycle periods, 6 failed.

Even if you use some sound money investment strategies as a guide, if you are your own money manager, you likely are going to want to do a wee bit of thinking for yourself in terms of what asset classes you are investing in, what levels of returns do you expect and what levels of withdrawal do you expect.

For example, in a quote cited by Phil_S, earlier, there was a suggestion that if the returns in the fund are greater than you expected then you could withdraw greater than expected, and I personally would consider that as a dumbass strategy that unless your goal is to draw down principle and you are in a liquidation phase. Also, fuck the 30 year timeline, you can make the timeline whatever you want, unless you happen to want to 30 year timeline, but my idea is to draw at a rate that allows the ability to draw and continue to draw at that rate to be perpetual, until such time as you change your mind and decide to increase your withdraw rate to start to deplete principle. 

In other words, strategies that you create should attempt to reflect your specific goals and your specific situation instead of blindly following some structure created by someone else in a different time and likely applying to different asset classes since we are also considering king daddy here, and not some random asset class, even though index funds have been a historical reference and can still serve as a jumping off point in order to consider the possible reasonableness and prudence of your assessments.

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[Biodom]

Of course, if we keep most of our value in BTC (and maybe some in fiat), then we might consider ways to formulate systems that allow us to be able to draw from our BTC in some kind of way without having to either worry about the overly depletion of value within our intended timeframe or having psychological pressures regarding either from where to draw upon sources or that we might not have a sufficient cushion (your example of paying the $100 late bill).

If and when Bitcoin reaches stability, we will, of course, have to seek other options if we wish to grow our wealth. That'll likely be the traditional investment categories, stocks, shares, loans, the normal gubbins. Hopefully by that time, they will be denominated in Bitcoin. Just living off the stash might well be a reasonable option for many though.

as long as we agree that living off the stash is not passive income, it is "living off the stash aka eating your seed corn", albeit if you don't foresee any more harvest seasons, eating seed corn is fine.

OT: can anyone rationalize doge for me and when it is going to stop? There is something weird about this. Is it just like XRP in 2017 or are we going to meme-ize the large chunk of our investments?
In a funny way it shows the power of a "Sovereign Individual" (Musk is certainly the example of such). I would have to re-read it (SI book) yet again.
In a way doggy looks like a purposeful distraction from bitcoin.

[BitcoinBunny]

Is Proudhon's true identity Bill Gates by any chance?

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/1425225/bill-gates-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-price-prediction-value-rishi-sunak-britcoin-spt

[julian071]

There's a wall on Kraken!

[philipma1957]

Of course, if we keep most of our value in BTC (and maybe some in fiat), then we might consider ways to formulate systems that allow us to be able to draw from our BTC in some kind of way without having to either worry about the overly depletion of value within our intended timeframe or having psychological pressures regarding either from where to draw upon sources or that we might not have a sufficient cushion (your example of paying the $100 late bill).

If and when Bitcoin reaches stability, we will, of course, have to seek other options if we wish to grow our wealth. That'll likely be the traditional investment categories, stocks, shares, loans, the normal gubbins. Hopefully by that time, they will be denominated in Bitcoin. Just living off the stash might well be a reasonable option for many though.

as long as we agree that living off the stash is not passive income, it is "living off the stash aka eating your seed corn", albeit if you don't foresee any more harvest seasons, eating seed corn is fine.

OT: can anyone rationalize doge for me and when it is going to stop? There is something weird about this. Is it just like XRP in 2017 or are we going to meme-ize the large chunk of our investments?
In a funny way it shows the power of a "Sovereign Individual" (Musk is certainly the example of such). I would have to re-read it (SI book) yet again.
In a way doggy looks like a purposeful distraction from bitcoin.

 I could could explain what happened with doge but not on this thread. As this is a btc thread.

[Biodom]

Of course, if we keep most of our value in BTC (and maybe some in fiat), then we might consider ways to formulate systems that allow us to be able to draw from our BTC in some kind of way without having to either worry about the overly depletion of value within our intended timeframe or having psychological pressures regarding either from where to draw upon sources or that we might not have a sufficient cushion (your example of paying the $100 late bill).

If and when Bitcoin reaches stability, we will, of course, have to seek other options if we wish to grow our wealth. That'll likely be the traditional investment categories, stocks, shares, loans, the normal gubbins. Hopefully by that time, they will be denominated in Bitcoin. Just living off the stash might well be a reasonable option for many though.

as long as we agree that living off the stash is not passive income, it is "living off the stash aka eating your seed corn", albeit if you don't foresee any more harvest seasons, eating seed corn is fine.

OT: can anyone rationalize doge for me and when it is going to stop? There is something weird about this. Is it just like XRP in 2017 or are we going to meme-ize the large chunk of our investments?
In a funny way it shows the power of a "Sovereign Individual" (Musk is certainly the example of such). I would have to re-read it (SI book) yet again.
In a way doggy looks like a purposeful distraction from bitcoin.

 I could could explain what happened with doge but not on this thread. As this is a btc thread.

yea, btc+covid+Trump+nft+(boobs+asses)...the latter two being essential components, I agree.
@JJG ramblings notwithstanding, this thread is officially blessed (by btctalk officionados) for occasional OT posts (well, I do agree that eth/ERC20, forks and XRP should be out).

[Richy_T]

as long as we agree that living off the stash is not passive income, it is "living off the stash aka eating your seed corn", albeit if you don't foresee any more harvest seasons, eating seed corn is fine.

I agree with you in the strict definition but if you're thinking in filthy fiat, and think Bitcoin is going to be fairly monotonically increasing forever, it kinda amounts to the same thing. Neither of these notions are particularly good ideas though.

[Hueristic]

Ethereum the best

[El duderino_]

TIME magazine, the 98 year-old publication, will accept #bitcoin for subscriptions and hodl it on their balance sheet.
https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1384103896465903620?s=20

[JayJuanGee]

I stacked some more btc today.  dip looks good.


@ Sayeds56


"Please share any news or Technical analysis behind this 60K Price prediction."


  is all I got

Aka SOMA...

The 4% "safe withdrawal" rate comes from a "passive investment" in a broad based index or mutual fund of approximately 60% stocks and equities, and 40% bonds. Putting your money in the S&P 500 or a Total Stock Market fund would achieve similar results.

The study also uses 30 years as a retirement number, how long you can stay retired.

There are several calculators out there, but you can try for example firecalc.com

If you input $1m and $40k as annual withdrawal for 30 years, you get a 95% success rate. Out of 120 possible 30 year cycle periods, 6 failed.

one issue: life extension drugs that may appear. now your 30 year retirement is 60 years. give or take. plan accordingly.

Even though I tend to believe that a lot of the life extension ideas are fantasies rather than anything realistic that any of us should expect, I do agree with the idea of attempting to create a system that allows for a perpetual withdrawal rate, which would thereafter allow you to UP the withdrawal rate at a later date in order to start to dip into the principle.

I personally do not believe that a retirement plan should be designed with an exact window in which to use everything up until such date is known or comfortable.

In the end, each of us should be attempting to identify and to plan to follow a system that is customized to our circumstances and our comfort level. 

Also, even though I have a tendency to go overboard on making sure that I have a pretty BIG ass cushion, I find it a wee bit problematic when some members seem to be creating obstacles that seem to delay the allowance of pulling the fuck you lever - so in any event, there is going to be some balancing needs in terms of neither pulling the fuck you lever too soon and also being way too reluctant to pull such lever even when everything might not be aligned, even though you may well have enough finances to actually follow through with pulling such fuck you lever.

edit: and i can feel those  Pfizer 5G nanobots feeding me lifeforce as i type, especially now that ive had the 2nd injection. 5 bars of 5G signal on my phone now and no 5G towers in 100 miles of here. sweet bonus, that! i have become.. become.. well.. something.

hahahahahaha.. wish all you like, sure there might be some things that you may be able to do to add a few years due to your richie status, but most likely the meat wagon is going to catch up to each of us and real life events are likely going to take away some of that living forever optimism.. blah blah blah.. not wishing any ill-will on anyone specifically... just trying some "real" talk on this here WO sometimes fantasy thread.

[AlcoHoDL]

Einstein said time is relative. Reading WO proves this. Away for 1 day due to super-crazy stuff happening at work. Came back and saw the flood of posts. Time is relative indeed!

Managed to observe BTC price from my phone. We had a "dip inside a DIP", and are now nicely recovering. IOW, business as usual. Honey badger was bitten by a cobra and is now recovering. Poor thing (the cobra).

Lots of fine posts here, by the usual quality WO residents. You know who you are. +WOsMerits to you all.

I see the occasional trolls are ever present, shilling shitcoins, especially during times of "crisis" (as if...). Again, you know who you are. Fuck you.

A true HoDLer knows how to separate the signal from the noise. Price charts are user-adjustable digital filters in disguise, and can do all the work for those who know how to use them. All that's needed is to lower the cutoff frequency (a.k.a. Zoom Out^TM). That's why long-horizon moving averages, such as the 52/208-week MA, are such good indicators. But what do the noobs and weak hands do? They zoom in and get rekt by the white noise. I guess it's a kind of Darwinian "survival of the fittest" principle. Maybe it's a good thing.

The future of a random or unknown process cannot be predicted, but Bitcoin is neither random nor unknown. Satoshi Nakamoto has given us inside information since its inception and for the next 120 years. Use it!

[Hueristic]

Can one of you Euros give a synopsis of what all this Super League shit is all about?

[Hhampuz]

Can one of you Euros give a synopsis of what all this Super League shit is all about?

It's basically a few top clubs in different leagues deciding to create their own league on the side, similar to champions league, where you have to be part of it and you can never drop out/qualify in to it. A lot of people say this is bad because it will take away the dreams of some teams to take part in the largest tournament (champions league) with a chance to win against the big boys. Super league teams on the other hand say that they carry these tournaments but aren't getting enough of the money to participate and in the case of them missing out one year it fucks them over royally.

This is basically a money vs money fight and in the end there's probably no winner.

[JayJuanGee]

There is NO consensus that 1mil gives you 3.3 thou a month of passive income.
Where are you getting these numbers?

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/beyond-4-rule-how-much-can-you-safely-spend-retirement

One frequently used rule of thumb for retirement spending is known as the 4% rule. It’s relatively simple: You add up all of your investments, and withdraw 4% of that total during your first year of retirement. In subsequent years, you adjust the dollar amount you withdraw to account for inflation. By following this formula, you should have a very high probability of not outliving your money during a 30-year retirement according to the rule.

For example, let’s say your portfolio at retirement totals $1 million. You would withdraw $40,000 in your first year of retirement. If the cost of living rises 2% that year, you would give yourself a 2% raise the following year, withdrawing $40,800, and so on for the next 30 years.

The 4% rule assumes you withdraw the same amount from your portfolio every year, adjusted for inflation

This is called SWR (safe withdrawal rate), NOT passive income.
You (and @JJG) are mixing two concepts together.

Of course, I cannot speak for Phil_S, but I give less than one ratt's ass if you want to call it SWR rather than passive income, and several times, I already stated various ways to reasonably consider the matter...and you want to get all bogged down on semantics that you believe better capture the ideas about how you would rather to consider the matter.

By the way, I further state that I consider "passive income" to be more descriptive in terms of what is attempting to be achieved (which is to have an income) without having to work rather than your "safe withdrawal rate" which hardly captures any kinds of ideas that we have been talking about.  What you trying to be safe from?  Safe from depleting your principle, perhaps?  I see no reason to change the descriptors based on your attempts at lame technical gottchas.

I think that there is also a kind of consensus evolving in recent times that even today, you need $2million as compared to what a millionaire would have been in 2010-ish   So $1million will give you about $3,333 in passive income per month and sure double that with $2million.. to $6,667 per month of passive income.

<snip>

I am fairly certain dividends from stock/shares, interest received from savings, royalties, is a form of passive income. However, unless you are retired, DRP is the way to go!

Everyone’s situation is different and how they invest and plan for future retirement will be different, but the one thing we can all agree on is, we never want to worry about where to find that extra $100 to pay a late bill.

Besides, you should be aiming to increase your overall wealth by minimum 10% each year. Then you only need to worry about choosing “his and her” matching colour Lambos... or his/his (Bob)

Maybe, but no one should rely on dividends as a firm number. In 2008 many dividend paying stocks were decimated together with everything else.

No one should blanketly attempt to create expectations out of centrally controlled assets, and surely every asset has a variety of particulars that need to be considered, and how much those particulars matter will depend, in part, upon how much of your value is tied up in such assets and what kind of timeline you expect to continue to have some or all of your value tied up in such assets.

aminorex, aminorex, where art thou aminorex?

His smartness got him distracted into a shitcoin, aka Monero....  which ended up showing that sometimes smartness cannot save peeps from dumb.

 

[Hueristic]

Can one of you Euros give a synopsis of what all this Super League shit is all about?

It's basically a few top clubs in different leagues deciding to create their own league on the side, similar to champions league, where you have to be part of it and you can never drop out/qualify in to it. A lot of people say this is bad because it will take away the dreams of some teams to take part in the largest tournament (champions league) with a chance to win against the big boys. Super league teams on the other hand say that they carry these tournaments but aren't getting enough of the money to participate and in the case of them missing out one year it fucks them over royally.

This is basically a money vs money fight and in the end there's probably no winner.

Thanks man.

[JayJuanGee]

Good for me....  

Yes... my thoughts are that there is no usual in bitcoinlandia, and king daddy gives few shits about what you think it might do.

You can surely lose money in "crypto" by HODLing it.... that's for damned sure.

[vapourminer]

<snip>

edit: and i can feel those  Pfizer 5G nanobots feeding me lifeforce as i type, especially now that ive had the 2nd injection. 5 bars of 5G signal on my phone now and no 5G towers in 100 miles of here. sweet bonus, that! i have become.. become.. well.. something.

I don't believe you that, you know.
Because the Pfizer shot does contain no hydrogel which in turn is obviously needed for organically based wireless transmissions and nanobot implants.
Therefor: definitely no internet connection with the Pfizer shot and you will also not get better 5G signal either (math, science, etc.). Hell I even am not sure if you've really got any nanobots, people can say anything on the internets and I am 50/50 you are just bragging around with your nanobot implants 

That's what the gubbermint of OZ has to say about the topic of internet connections through vaccines (they only talk about the Pfizer shot, so I wonder if the moderna stuff has better connectivity):
 
[...math and sciencey stuff edited out...]

so now i need two moderna shots in addition to my 2 pfizers for the full 5G nanobot lifeboosting effect? great. just great. the things we put up with just for the chance of some random superpower.

[Biodom]

There is NO consensus that 1mil gives you 3.3 thou a month of passive income.
Where are you getting these numbers?

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/beyond-4-rule-how-much-can-you-safely-spend-retirement

One frequently used rule of thumb for retirement spending is known as the 4% rule. It’s relatively simple: You add up all of your investments, and withdraw 4% of that total during your first year of retirement. In subsequent years, you adjust the dollar amount you withdraw to account for inflation. By following this formula, you should have a very high probability of not outliving your money during a 30-year retirement according to the rule.

For example, let’s say your portfolio at retirement totals $1 million. You would withdraw $40,000 in your first year of retirement. If the cost of living rises 2% that year, you would give yourself a 2% raise the following year, withdrawing $40,800, and so on for the next 30 years.

The 4% rule assumes you withdraw the same amount from your portfolio every year, adjusted for inflation

This is called SWR (safe withdrawal rate), NOT passive income.
You (and @JJG) are mixing two concepts together.

Of course, I cannot speak for Phil_S, but I give less than one ratt's ass if you want to call it SWR rather than passive income, and several times, I already stated various ways to reasonably consider the matter...and you want to get all bogged down on semantics that you believe better capture the ideas about how you would rather to consider the matter.

By the way, I further state that I consider "passive income" to be more descriptive in terms of what is attempting to be achieved (which is to have an income) without having to work rather than your "safe withdrawal rate" which hardly captures any kinds of ideas that we have been talking about.  What you trying to be safe from?  Safe from depleting your principle, perhaps?  I see no reason to change the descriptors based on your attempts at lame technical gottchas.

Is the world right or you are right..the case of: "do you want to believe me or your lying eyes?"
To simplify: $20 cash in your wallet is there to spend, but it certainly ain't "income" as long as you did not get it for a 'service' performed or "passively", like rent. etc.

In addition: the fact that you keep saying "ratt's ass" instead of "rat's ass" despite numeral corrections indicate that you are either a f-g robot/software program (trying to sound like a fallible human) or a dumb-ass/ignorant/stubborn individual-exactly as you mentioned someone depicting you in RL.
In both cases-there is nothing "there" to listen to.

[JayJuanGee]

Of course, if we keep most of our value in BTC (and maybe some in fiat), then we might consider ways to formulate systems that allow us to be able to draw from our BTC in some kind of way without having to either worry about the overly depletion of value within our intended timeframe or having psychological pressures regarding either from where to draw upon sources or that we might not have a sufficient cushion (your example of paying the $100 late bill).

If and when Bitcoin reaches stability, we will, of course, have to seek other options if we wish to grow our wealth. That'll likely be the traditional investment categories, stocks, shares, loans, the normal gubbins. Hopefully by that time, they will be denominated in Bitcoin. Just living off the stash might well be a reasonable option for many though.

That day seems quite far off from now, maybe greater than 50 years, so I am not sure how much utility we get from speculating over a kind of situation that is far from our current reality.  In other words, right now we have variables in front of us in which there are all kinds of asset classes, and likely bitcoin is far and beyond superior than any of the others, but that still might not justify putting 100% of value into bitcoin.. but at the same time, the likely ongoing superior performance of bitcoin is likely a pretty damned strong factor that should be accounted for, even if some folks are not even going to agree with my statement here so therefore there is going to likely be a long-ass time that a lot of people are investing in inferior assets, and whether that drags on for 50 years or some other timeline, I cannot really know, and my odds of even being around 50 years is very slim, i mean in terms of witnessing what happens by then.. but maybe there will be some advances in various directions, as you suggest prior to 50 years from now that I would be able to witness, even if it might not affect my investment choices in any meaningful way.. not sure...

Of course, if we keep most of our value in BTC (and maybe some in fiat), then we might consider ways to formulate systems that allow us to be able to draw from our BTC in some kind of way without having to either worry about the overly depletion of value within our intended timeframe or having psychological pressures regarding either from where to draw upon sources or that we might not have a sufficient cushion (your example of paying the $100 late bill).

If and when Bitcoin reaches stability, we will, of course, have to seek other options if we wish to grow our wealth. That'll likely be the traditional investment categories, stocks, shares, loans, the normal gubbins. Hopefully by that time, they will be denominated in Bitcoin. Just living off the stash might well be a reasonable option for many though.

as long as we agree that living off the stash is not passive income, it is "living off the stash aka eating your seed corn", albeit if you don't foresee any more harvest seasons, eating seed corn is fine.

Funny (or is the correct word "strange"?) that you want to keep harping on this likely inadequate talking point.

OT: can anyone rationalize doge for me and when it is going to stop? There is something weird about this. Is it just like XRP in 2017 or are we going to meme-ize the large chunk of our investments?
In a funny way it shows the power of a "Sovereign Individual" (Musk is certainly the example of such). I would have to re-read it (SI book) yet again.
In a way doggy looks like a purposeful distraction from bitcoin.

If doge is a purposeful distraction from bitcoin, then why talk about it?

[philipma1957]

Of course, if we keep most of our value in BTC (and maybe some in fiat), then we might consider ways to formulate systems that allow us to be able to draw from our BTC in some kind of way without having to either worry about the overly depletion of value within our intended timeframe or having psychological pressures regarding either from where to draw upon sources or that we might not have a sufficient cushion (your example of paying the $100 late bill).

If and when Bitcoin reaches stability, we will, of course, have to seek other options if we wish to grow our wealth. That'll likely be the traditional investment categories, stocks, shares, loans, the normal gubbins. Hopefully by that time, they will be denominated in Bitcoin. Just living off the stash might well be a reasonable option for many though.

as long as we agree that living off the stash is not passive income, it is "living off the stash aka eating your seed corn", albeit if you don't foresee any more harvest seasons, eating seed corn is fine.

OT: can anyone rationalize doge for me and when it is going to stop? There is something weird about this. Is it just like XRP in 2017 or are we going to meme-ize the large chunk of our investments?
In a funny way it shows the power of a "Sovereign Individual" (Musk is certainly the example of such). I would have to re-read it (SI book) yet again.
In a way doggy looks like a purposeful distraction from bitcoin.

 I could could explain what happened with doge but not on this thread. As this is a btc thread.

yea, btc+covid+Trump+nft+(boobs+asses)...the latter two being essential components, I agree.
@JJG ramblings notwithstanding, this thread is officially blessed (by btctalk officionados) for occasional OT posts (well, I do agree that eth/ERC20, forks and XRP should be out).

Okay eth = garbage. if mr v drops dead tomorrow that coin will spiral way down as other fight to be in control of it.

LTC/DOGE merged mined are solidly backed by asics.  

So some rich mother fucker (only because I sold my doge around 1-38 cents for an average of 6 cents and made 60k profit vs holding and selling at 40 cents and making 400k profit)

I will say Musk looks at DOGE/LTC realizes when it was worth 1/3 of a penny back in summer 2020 he can make a bigly score.

a) buy doge  cheaply
b) buy cheap L3+ gear
c) make large solar array for mining

D) all of the above cheap and easy well under 200 million to achieve last year.

e) keep pumping the coin
f) make solid money
g) try to cause btc price drops
h) move doge profits into btc.

I) now doge is 30+ cents if he built a solar array and is mining LTC/DOGE investment is all paid off.  He has vested interest in pumping doge


Not saying he did all of the above.  but It looks like a duck and quacks like a duck  it is very likely a duck.


The only reason I can mentally handle not holding longer is I am mining 10000 doge coins a month that was 32 a month last year and is now 3986 a month.

I am still moving doge coin into btc and fiat.


Personally I see this move  about doge as very sure that it is being done.


If my speculative ideas are correct it is legal to does what he did.  As it is not subject to stock rules.  So he can not tout Tesla stock.  but he can tout doge.

Here is a link into how I see other coin maneuvers being done.  which have caused a huge difficulty drop in BTC

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5331454.0


they involve other shitcoins I will not mention here.