Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[gallianooo]

On the way for the 51K retest ? 

[1713875232]

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[lightfoot]

I'm sure you, from all of the people, know that there's no perfect solution, and everything comes with its own tradeoffs and caveats. A tax free heaven that looks perfect on paper, can be a real shithole due to a ton of other problems. Does it really matter if you don't have to pay any income taxes, but now you have to "grease the wheels" of everyone who has a bigger gun then you do? And are a bunch of people putting a claim on all of the resources of the country is not just another form of taxation?

I voluntarily pay my Bitcoin private fees to use their service.

I do not expect ETH users to pay Bitcoin fees to use their service.

It's....voluntary....aint that great?

*huh*? Your fees pay to keep the coin running. Technically you can elect to pay no fees, but your transaction probably will never complete. So it's hardly voluntary if you want to use the service. It could be exactly like a "tax" in that if you don't pay your tax you don't get any of the benefits.

I think this is being stretched a bit too far here, how about if we just drop it and go back to bashing shitcoins, ok?

[OutOfMemory]

On the way for the 51K retest ? 

Hmm, it doesn't make much sense to sell now. $51k would be a good foundation for a rocket launch, but it's too early.
Interesting to observe, tho.

[philipma1957]

On the way for the 51K retest ? 

on the way to 70k may 1

[proudhon]

On the way for the 51K retest ? 

Looks more like we'll be "testing" $20k soon. And by "testing" I mean "collapsing through".

[gallianooo]

On the way for the 51K retest ? 

on the way to 70k may 1

I prefer too... bud odds getting lower now to be at 70K in 2 days. Let's see 

[gallianooo]

On the way for the 51K retest ? 

Looks more like we'll be "testing" $20k soon. And by "testing" I mean "collapsing through".

Proudhon IN DA PLACE 

More chance testing 100K than 20K now.

[El duderino_]

On the way for the 51K retest ? 

on the way to 70k may 1

Would love an EPIC candle....

[gallianooo]

On the way for the 51K retest ? 

on the way to 70k may 1

Would love an EPIC candle....

daily candle to 100K. that would be EPIC

[El duderino_]

On the way for the 51K retest ? 

on the way to 70k may 1

Would love an EPIC candle....

daily candle to 100K. that would be EPIC

[JayJuanGee]

100k now!
Coz a "fuck you" said at work,
Cannot be unfucked!

#fuckyouhaiku

I like the idea generally, but I am not sure what the $100k gets you.. more cushion from the bottom (that you consider to be currently at $20k-ish and maybe you can move it up to $30k based on that?

Would there be an amount of cashing out at $100k?

Or is it that once $100k comes, then we can just be closer to higher goals of $150k to $300k?*

* my below response to Biodom's post shows my rambling thoughts on aspects of the topic, at least some of my concerns of upside potential causing decently downside corrections

Supercycle thesis (D. Held) discussion on McCormack's podcast:

https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/the-bitcoin-supercycle-revisited

Of course, Dan Held is an interesting and thoughtful commentator, and I did listen to that Podcast yesterday, and it would have been maybe 1/2 day or so after your post that I had noticed it on my podcast feed.

In that podcast, Held asserted that a supercycle definition to be something like a bullmarket that goes beyond expectations or the absence of a bearmarket, so there was a decent amount of looseness in his supercycle definition that was causing me to intellectually fight with his claims while I was listening to him because he said something like a bull run that goes above $300k would start to fit the supercycle theory, and maybe a failure to go above $100k would cause a negating of the supercycle theory.

Still pretty damned loose, overall, but I did go back and consider some of the numbers, and in weeks past, I had even been prognosticating any kind of overshooting of $500k to $1.5 million would be an overshooting of any kind of reasonable expectations for this cycle, but I refused to presume any kind of supercycle because I consider that  any kind of overshooting is inviting some kind of overcorrection, in response - so maybe I am largely fighting any kind of assumptions that supposed strong hand institutions and rich peeps are actually going to be able to meaningfully stifle overcorrections without ending up getting reckt in the process.

Part my problem comes with overly presuming even though I find no real problem to assert that historically bitcoin has been and is becoming less volatile and we can even presume a bit of ongoingly lessening in bitcoin's volatility with the increases in market, increases in bitcoin's liquidity which are largely just causing it much harder to move its prices without willingness to inject increasingly godly-large sums of capital.

By the way, if we consider the 2013 price rise to be a bit over 100x and then the 2017 price rise to have only been about 80x, then we might consider this upcoming 2021 price rise (as to be expected to come) to be perhaps less than 80x, and I am personally using $4k as our bounce off point which would cause $320k to be the same as 2017, so we should be presuming less than 80x, so I am not really going to rule out overshooting of the price into the $500k to $1.5million arena, but we should already appreciate that going up to or even passed $320k would already be a bit of an overshoot  and going to $500k to $1.5million would be around 125x and 375x respectively - which would not be completely out of bounds (since honey badger likely gives no shits about theoretical restrictions), but still seems to be quite a bit more than any of us should reasonably expect - and I would surmise that overshoots would end up justify outrageously strong and punishable corrections that the various new entrants (no matter how richie they are or how institutional they are) are not going to be able to stop - which to me just seems to be more of the old pattern rather than fitting into some kind of supercycle category - but we will see.. we will see.., and in that regard, the next 3 months to 15 months or so for the anticipated UPpity (presuming that something happens) to play out and the subsequent correction (that could last into 2023 or 2024**) will be interesting to watch.. and hopefully many of us HODLers can make it through such period (presuming volatility) with a reasonable sized and suitable to our own situation amount of our BTC stash intact.

** By the way, any of us likely realize that potential frothiness of BTC's price performance remains a product of both amount of price movement and time, so of course, the faster it goes up the less sustainable such ongoing UPpity price performance becomes... so without knowing either of them in advance, we are going to have troubles presuming the extent to which they might be sustainable, and even if you zoom out on a 5-year chart of BTC's current price location looks quite unsustainable, since we are already had been up about 16x from our bottom bouncing off point of about $4k, and still as I type we are a bit more than 13x above such $4k bouncing off prices....

[Lambie Slayer]

I remember in 2014 when I first started trying to convert nocoiners into Bitcoin I would ask them about the ever rising prices in their daily lives and they seemed to be vaguely aware but usually minimized it by making it out to be a long term phenomenon and something that they need not worry over in the near term.

Uie-pooie were only born in November 2018, so could not be possible.

In other words, I don't believe you.

 

I always get butthurt when Slayer comes around and try to pretend he didnt have a prior account many years ago that was banned for doxxing the troll Isabella Kaminska, the Financial Times blogger. I have dedicated my entire life to text walls of trolling so I feel sorry for her.

How long before next big move up you think people? I think April is ending as small red candle on the monthly. Consolidation is boring, I need big green dildos please  

Haha don't worry, with this kind of message.. you will get the reply from...

3...2...1... ------> JayJuanGee  

Yes.  Since we are talking about price possibilities, we should appreciate that the price could go in several directions.

If you wish that it would go up, and you are bored by consolidation, then perhaps you should also feel grateful that it is somewhat holding its own (in a kind of Lindy Effect) and it is NOT going down?  

Matters surely could be worse.

So stop being party poops, when there is nothing wrong.

And, as for you gallianooo, hopefully you have gotten over your inclinations for prognasticatenings of $40k to $43k - or would it be wishenings? since such price levels may or may not happen ever again.  Surely, we cannot know with any level of certainty.


Edit:
By the way, I am frequently bothered by the amount of froth in the shitcoin space - even when they are going down relative to bitcoin because I frequently consider shitcoins to be overvalued, yet in recent times, it seems that there is even more froth building up in a large number of coins, whether they are connected to the scam coin ethereum or to some other shitcoin.. - pick any random coin and they all seem to be pumpening, currently... so I don't really know what that means in terms of BTC's price.. whether it will pump or not - because surely the head gives few shits about the tail - and so it might play out weirdly if there were a scenario in which shitcoins and bitcoin pump at the same time.. at least to me that would seem weird under current market conditions, even though I am not going to rule anything out  when it comes to what might happen with regards to short term bitcoin price direction, shitcoin price direction or the relation between the two... just ongoingly bothered by the ongoing froth in the shitcoin space.. that's all.

Yes GayJuanGee, I realize you are still upset for me exposing you as the daytrading troll you are.

I see you still spend almost all your free time typing walls about price predictions and your gambling hobby of day trading Bitcoin. Im sure you still try and pretend that you arent gambling with King Bitcoin bc you are "buying on the way down" and "selling on the way up", as you have some special skill at knowing what the King will do in the short term.

Your skill is typing large walls. Stick to that.

You really should just learn to hodl.

We all know about the times you lost coins to hacks and exit scams by keeping them spread all over various crap exchanges so you could day trade them.

Time to admit you are a compulsive gambler (and typer) and learn to hodl. Also you should have gotten out of your poorly performing investments and gone all in the King as I have been telling you for years. 

If you want to wager some Bitcoin on whether I can prove I still control my old banned account let me know. I like free coin. 

[d_eddie]

On the way for the 51K retest ? 

on the way to 70k may 1

Would love an EPIC candle....

daily candle to 100K. that would be EPIC

I think the present number go down episode is just the usual intermission of fuckery related to options/futures expiring tomorrow. Apparently, the max pain point this time is around 54k, so that's where the temp bears are likely aiming to.

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-options-market-eyes-4-2b-expiry-on-friday

[JayJuanGee]

Y'know, one alternative to taxation is for the government to just print the money it needs. We're basically there anyway and it avoids all that messy taxation business. This only works at the federal level obviously  'though it would be interesting if it extended to the state level too.'

 A bit of competition between currencies and the ability for people to express confidence in the various levels of government with exchange rates would probably be quite revealing.

You started really strong as I  love the idea of the fed government saying no federal taxes. We will simply print the money.  This will be a 5 year plan to get us over the covid.

I Would love to see the world's reaction to that bold move.


Two more days to 70k

That's right....

Hope springs eternal.

It's not over until it's over.  

 

Getting pretty tired of this Bitcoin going essentially sideways for weeks on end while all the other shitcoins go up for no apparent reason. I mean shit look at all the large investors and institutions rushing out there to buy binance coin, what a stampede. /sarc

Waiting is the hardest part.

  

Feeling impatient & bored myself. I have a sell strategy which to sell X amount of bitcoin every $2,500 price rise, all the way up to $200,000. I’ve only sold 6 bitcoin in this bull run so far (up to the ATH).

Much more exciting times to come in 2021 but I am bored too.

Much smarter people than me think we’ll be bouncing around in a sideways trading range between $50,000 & $75,000 until the end of summer so more patience required unfortunately.

Moon confirmed Q4 of 2021 though.

Beyond my normal system, I did need to structure some extra sales to in order for a deal that I am currently working on, and I am thinking that I am going to end up selling between a certain quantity of my BTC stash extra (beyond my regularly systematized sales) of around 2-4% extra - depending on a variety of factors - including price movements.. so surely if the BTC were to move UPpity more quickly, then there would be some relieving and lessening of the pain and potential conflicts, but no matter what, I do attempt to try to maintain a bit of a system in which whatever I am doing is not going to cause me to become overly emotionally about whichever way the BTC price might move.  

In your case, expecting a move up to $200k in order to be satisfied could end in disappointment, even though I realize that your structuring your sales every $2,500 is likely relieving a lot of the pressures because of the fact that you do not need $200k to have been achieved in order to have been hedge the worser case scenarios of either the top considerably shortfalling $200k or the even worser scenario of the top (of $64,895) already being in.  Surely both of us agree that your current plan is likely much better than your larger lump summing plan from a few years ago that would have stared in a sub $50k arena.. but you never know, right?, you could end up kicking yourself, if the top ends up already having been in at $64,895.. and then you say that you could have blah blah blah..  but the asymmetric upside bet on bitcoin, still does seem to very much be the right play... even if some weird-ass scenario of DOWNity does end up playing out, such as the retarded proudhon hopenings.

Bitcoin dominance is down to 48% then what's next?

Who gives any ratt's asses, beside you?

[infofront]

@infofront: Pick it in terms of defining it, or picking one from a predefined set of (already prepared) polls?

I was buying bitcoins!!

Your timestamp 1619633791
My timastmap 1619633792

Choose the poll... infofront didn’t put any conditions so it’s open for you.

Hmm, i'm still thinking...
No idea  

If you have a good poll on your mind, i'd let you choose.

Who else owns Bitcoin among your closed ones?
1. I’m alone
2. Me and my partner
3. My family and close friends
4. All of my circle owns some

Or

What’s your estimated price to sell your Bitcoins at least 50%
1. Next ATH
2. $100k
3. $250k
4. $500k
Or you going to HODL and die with your bitcoins? Don’t do this please...

Edit:
Or may be more generalized
What’s your estimated price to sell your Bitcoins at least 50%
1. Next ATH
2. $100-$150k
3. $200-$300k
4. $500k+

I think the first one is a good idea.
All the ideas i already had for a poll were already asked.
On the other hand, my mind is occupied with family probs at the time.
One of the sons is underperforming at school. It's not that he isn't clever, but he thinks he is way better than he really is. And when he's confronted with his low skills after writing tests, he's just sad. Not that he can be motivated to learn his stuff, but he remembers hundreds of names and details of pokemon, while he can't even accurately convert simple units (tons,kilograms,dekagrams,grams) - it's almost like dyscalculia. He gets it right one time out of four, by accident. $34 and 20c, converted to cents result in 340002 cents, for example. Next try, 2354cents converted to dollars, his reply is correct with $23,54...
He has a military grade maths teacher, too. I get a call from her every few weeks  
I was helping many loser students in programming and computer science class, they were F's and made it to B,C's and some even found their new favorite hobby in coding. I'm good at teaching, i always tried hard to be a good teacher, but anything i try to teach him just wont stick in his head.
I really started to feel kind of helpless, lately.
My weak mind is occupied by spinning thoughts around this problem.
The trial to choose a poll made me somewhat aware of it.

It's okay. We'll go with that one.

[Hueristic]

Among your family and friends, who owns Bitcoin?

This is too invasive a question.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Yes GayJuanGee, I realize you are still upset for me exposing you as the daytrading troll you are.

You are quite amazing, if you do say so yourself.   

I see you still spend almost all your free time typing walls about price predictions and your gambling hobby of day trading Bitcoin.

Are you filming me or my bot?

You fuck!!!!

Im sure you still try and pretend that you arent gambling with King Bitcoin bc you are "buying on the way down" and "selling on the way up", as you have some special skill at knowing what the King will do in the short term.

I tried to create a system that hardly has any presumptions about short term btc price movements and ONLY presumes (or hopes for) long term UPpity.

Your skill is typing large walls. Stick to that.

Why, thank you lambie.. that is amongst the nicest things that you have ever said to me.

You really should just learn to hodl.

You really think that you know my situation better than me?  Pretty damned presumptuous, no?

We all know about the times you lost coins to hacks and exit scams by keeping them spread all over various crap exchanges so you could day trade them.

That's true.  There is a risk in engaging with exchanges, including having coins exposed to sim porting vulnerabilities.  I doubt that "we all" know about those various risks or how they might be executed. and sure the more that any of us plays around with a variety of systems the more security vulnerable we could become or even the more vulnerable we could become to our own potential sloppiness - even if we might be striving to build skills and knowledge.

Time to admit you are a compulsive gambler (and typer) and learn to hodl.

I don't really want to admit to anything that is framed in such negative ways, and surely the gambling part has been something that I have been striving to help people to better understand their own strategies in such a way that minimizes gambling aspects.

Accordingly, we might consider investing in something and gambling to be on a kind of spectrum, and my approach to bitcoin has been to attempt to frame it and to attempt to employ a variety of investment, rather than gambling, strategies.

You might not understand the difference between gambling and investing, right you dumb twat?  Think about it, lambie bambie... for years, there have been folks who have come into various BTC threads and asserted that there is no way that peeps can "invest" in bitcoin because all that they are doing is "gambling," and it seems to me that they have largely been proven wrong, the presumptuous and non-thinkening fucks.  You do not want to include your stupid-lil-selfie with them, do you lambie bambie? 

Seems to me that if you strive to categorize anything that is NOT buying and HODLing as gambling than you are likely missing a lot of nuance, not only in what I am doing in terms of trading, but other aspects of overall investment portfolio management that I attempt to advocate in terms of managing allocations.. and setting personal goals.. which first of all puts a lot of emphasis for anyone who wants to attempt to move their lil selfies more in the direction of "investing" rather than "gambling" would be to figure out their own personal financial and psychological circumstances including their cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance and time, skills and abilities to learn, plan and to tweak their allocations and methods from time to time which might involve reallocations and trading.

Also you should have gotten out of your poorly performing investments and gone all in the King as I have been telling you for years. 

Why would I listen to you?  Again, you know shit about my overall investments and even my personal situation and contemplations, even if you act like you do from gleaning some posts.. so fucking what?  I have not said enough about my personal situation or my priorities in order for your advices to be applicable to my particular situation, even if you might want to apply the same advices to everyone.. which seems another inappropriate and inadequate approach to investing, whether we are talking about BTC or any other kinds of investing in terms of peeps need to apply their own investment choices to their situation and to take responsibilities for such.., and sure sometimes there are seemingly obvious objective problems because it remains tough as fuck for peeps to even attempt to understand their own financial and psychological situations and there are also obstacles in attempting to apply systems to synchronize with such financial and psychological situations even presuming that they know those things pretty well.

If you want to wager some Bitcoin on whether I can prove I still control my old banned account let me know. I like free coin. 

Do I care, newbie?

 


 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@XRPMadness
The effect of options on BTC (1d chart). Each circle is the expiration date, last Friday of the month. Line is the trend until those dates. Quite clear.

https://twitter.com/xrpmadness/status/1387836594602790912?s=21

[cAPSLOCK]

Doing this right is a balance of security and simplicity.  If we try to do it in a way that is overly convoluted, or requires a very good memory, or would be difficult to communicate to another trusted human, we are increasing the possibility of a "foot gun".  When I have thought through these I have tried to come up with schemes where I would combine a set of keys for multi-sig with decoy amounts in the wallets associated with the single keys, along with BIP39 passphrases, AND the use of exotic derivation paths.  I began to realize that if I over-engineer the method in the name of "security" I am increasing the chances that I can make a mistake, or simply forget one of the things I did.

The great thing about Bitcoin is that (unless you do it wrong), you start from a position of unimpeachable security. A random 256 bit number (or series of such) completely unknown to anyone else. It's true that management of that poses some difficulties but solutions tend to be problematic only in that they have reduced security compared to the maximum security bitcoin provides and not in comparison to more traditional options for wealth storage (which look pretty poor in comparison).

And unfortunately, for some (most probably) users a bitcoin bank may be the safest solution even taking the counterparty risk into account.  Leaving your bitcoin on an exchange, or in your CashApp wallet is rightly frowned upon by we OG elite... but until we have better trust minimized options it still might be best for the masses.

I wouldn't really agree. That's kinda throwing the baby out with the bathwater. It may just require more sophisticated key management techniques and for people to become more aware of their availability. Your bank and another party might participate in an m of n arrangement, for example. (Though bviously, you are sacrificing some security there, it's still better than trusting someone else with all your funds). The major thing is education though. Of the people I gave Bitcoin to in the past, none of them took notice of my warning to take backups of their wallets.

I certainly agree with this from a idealistic standpoint... But I have found even just getting a lightbulb to go on when just describing what makes bitcoin different than say, Venmo can be hard.  So helping Joe Sixpack custody his own keys safely is tricky.

[Farmer Bill]

Among your family and friends, who owns Bitcoin?

This is too invasive a question.

The correct answer is we are all no-coiners.

Any other answer could be detrimental to you, your friends' and family's well being.