Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Sayeds56]

@FerreMarett
Tomorrow is 1st of May, the month of the bull, my birthday month, and its Chinese year of the Ox (bull) - so lets just 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
https://twitter.com/ferremarett/status/1388109961297866756?s=21


May is also the birth month of LFC_Bitcoin, let’s gooooooo!

[1713537453]

1713537453

[1713537453]

1713537453

[JohnBitCo]

Is it altcoin season or bitcoin season or both  

[philipma1957]

I think the present number go down episode is just the usual intermission of fuckery related to options/futures expiring tomorrow. Apparently, the max pain point this time is around 54k, so that's where the temp bears are likely aiming to.

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-options-market-eyes-4-2b-expiry-on-friday

This time I think the Coindesk article nailed it.

At 8:00 UTC, the bitstamp price was around 54374 if I read the chart right.

Who'd have thunk?

I think now we get ourselves 3 weeks of unmanipulated market relatively unencumbered number-go-up fun.

Hoping for it. We the miners will soon get a nice bump in btc earnings as the difficulty is about to change may 2 it drops over 10%. Which means 10% more coins earned. I am thinking this should help boost price up.

... and pop she goes, like clockwork.

I think they were slightly, gently tapping her down to keep a lid on the optimal ~54k level until Hour 0 (expiry). The former experiment of the violent dump did bode well. Now they just removed their hands from her head, so she can float freely. Or just a bit more freely, who knows.

At least for now, the hypothesis holds.

I grabbed btc the last 2 or 3 dips of your theory.

Now we have a diff adjustment tomorrow May 1 at  5 or 6 pm

https://diff.cryptothis.com ...

Latest Block:   681246  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   87.0501%  (1855 / 2130.96 expected, 275.96 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   23137439666472.05                           
Current Difficulty:   23581981443663.85                           
Next Difficulty:   between 20529783598797 and 20546744389804

Next Difficulty Change:   between -12.9429% and -12.8710%

Previous Retarget:   April 15, 2021 at 3:40 PM  (+1.9213%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 5:19 PM  (in 1d 6h 30m 22s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 5:39 PM  (in 1d 6h 49m 30s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 16d 1h 39m 57s and 16d 1h 59m 5s

 ...

Still looks to be more than 10%

So A mining farm will get 1.1 btc vs 1 btc soon.

I suspect this will boost us more and easily over 60k

1.1 x 56500 = 62150 not quite my 70k number on may 1

but

if we drift to 60k today and add in the boost of the diff adjustment

we go to new ATH on May 1 of 65-67k

looking forward to this.

[Krubster]

Here is a decent read by the on-chain analyst Ben Lilly, posted yesterday.

https://jarvislabs.substack.com/p/market-synchronization

price increased 17% on average from the day prior to the monthly expiration to four days after.

TL;DR: Prices go up after monthly expiration.

[JayJuanGee]

By the way, we still have about 17.5 hours left in this month's candle, and it would have to close above $58,789.96 for the candle to be green -

- which is good for me, because I have a shopping list of stuff I want to buy but not until we reach back to $60K levels so I don't wipe out my recent gains.

Hm?

These are frequently kinds of uncertainties, and depending on the size of your shopping list, it can be good that you have some patience, but sometimes when we put something on our shopping list, we will start to get some impatience in regards to getting it.

Hard to know, if we do not know very much about you and your cashflow or the relative cost of the items on the shopping list.

I know some people who are currently getting involved in construction because they have seen  construction costs going way the hell up and they anticipate that the construction costs are going to continue to go up, so they want to lock in construction costs now rather than gambling upon the construction costs going up more, but those are the kinds of "shopping list" items that are not easily changed once the contracts are signed and especially once the work starts.

It does seem pretty straight-forwardly probable that we will be at least touching upon $60k in the upcoming near term future, but not sure how long it will take... of course, some folks, such as gallianooo prognosticate that it is better for bitcoin to go down before it goes up, and therefore they spout out near certain assertions (wishenings) that we be going down before UP, and surely, if we were to reach such low levels of $40k to $43k like they wish/project, then those kinds of diptwats will start talking about even lower numbers being reasonable and/or preferable, so I a not even saying that I know anything, but I cannot disagree that when lower bottoms come in (even on the short-term) there could end up being some delays for any of us who have selling plans for ongoing UPpity price moves in order to fill shopping lists that may end up having to be deferred if DOWNity ends up prolonging longer than expected.

Even if DOWNity trends were to happen of $40k to $43k that perhaps triggers further cascading downity into the lower $30ks, we would not even be removed from our bullrun, in spite of doom and gloom that would become more present in the shakening out of weak hands in the bitcoin space and likely in the shitcon space, too, but those kinds of scenarios could prevent such cashening outs in the $60ks for months, while still preserving our bullrun.. or think of an early 2013 scenario in which the correction from $263 took around 6 months before returning to $263 - and surely we are NOT exactly in any kind of 2013 scenario at this particular moment because there are frequently underlying facts and even momentum facts that cause our current price dynamics to be different from early 2013 or the repercussions that happened in 2013, yet 2013 still does end up illustrating some kinds of realms of correction both in terms of amount and in terms of duration that still allow for the bull scenario to remain intact in spite a pretty decently-sized correction that endures in the ballpark of half a year before resuming - which does not seem out of line with reasonable possibilities even in current bitcoin even if currently seeming a wee bit on the less than likely side of where we are at currently - especially with having BTC prices largely moving around in the $50ks for a couple months (since about mid-February).  Yes, diptwats like Biodom seem to conclude that BTC is "underperforming" because it is stuck in the same price range for a couple of months.., blah blah blah.. but if you think about the matter by zooming out, anywhere in the $50ks is still at the top of the range since we have been getting a new ATH each month - referring to mid Feb, mid-March and mid-April).

By the way, looking at BTC's price movement from the past couple of hours, it surely is nice to be seeing quite a bit of UPpity price movement (currently up to $56,918 $56,950 - moving quickly within the past minute - and not really seeming to want to stop - as I type) which both puts us closer to $58,789.96 (which would be interesting to see within the next 8-9 hours) and also puts us closer to your $60k-ish aspirations.

[philipma1957]

Here is a decent read by the on-chain analyst Ben Lilly, posted yesterday.

https://jarvislabs.substack.com/p/market-synchronization

price increased 17% on average from the day prior to the monthly expiration to four days after.

TL;DR: Prices go up after monthly expiration.

Yeah and there is the extra factor this month of the -  10-12%  diff adjustment falling on May 1

It is a nice boost in earnings for mining farms.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin underperforming? Huh?

Greedy much?

Personally, I do not refer to the recent "underperforming" assessments as "greedy" (even though there could be some truth in the "greedy" label) instead of "distracted."**..

**The distraction is by shitcoins, to be more precise... which really seems difficult to help "supposed bitcoiner" who has such difficult times focusing on king daddy bitcoin, even after having supposedly been studying this space for as long as me (more than 7 years) while still cannot help his lil selfie in being distracted by shitcoins.. go figure???  can we help dumb in that kind of presentation?

[Krubster]

[edited out]

Yeah and there is the extra factor this month of the -  10-12%  diff adjustment falling on May 1

It is a nice boost in earnings for mining farms.

Excellent point, the difficulty adjustment is going to boost this further.

This is going to be an extremely interesting month.

"Sell in May and go away" - LOL.

[BitcoinBunny]

[Dabs]

That's actually a good thing, but I'd wait for a confirmation in this case. They can always bump the fee higher to get it included faster in the next block. RBF would probably be a non-issue if it's a withdrawal from a custodial service you more or less trust. They may be doing it so they can merge or add transactions together while it's not yet confirmed, but eventually you'll get your coins and they may possibly save on fees if it ends up batching more transactions together.

Yes, a withdrawal is a given anyway since you just have to wait for it. It's more the low-to-medium value purchase realm that double spends could potentially be an issue.

As escrow, I always wait for a confirmation. For shitcoins, I wait the equivalent number of blocks in 10 minutes, usually takes a bit longer. For personal transactions, I just look and see in my full nodes, and ... yeah, usually looks good in a minute. Also usually, in my case, they send first. What's a block between friends... ... ...

[Richy_T]

Bitcoin up $4000 in 24 hours. Tell 2013 myself that and I'd probably look at you incredulously.

[wavessurfing]

......................

Ever since  you pointed it out I have purchased on the last three dips in the pattern.

I do see a solid break out on May 1 after the futures clear.

so spectacular.

[Krubster]

Bitcoin up $4000 in 24 hours. Tell 2013 myself that and I'd probably look at you incredulously.

Risto sure was eccentric, but he also scammed a lot of people (ask the Monero guys). That doesn't matter much now though, R.I.P.

[mrjoy15]

LAST 24 HOURS BITCOIN STARTS AROUND ~$52,400 AND NOW TRADING OVER $57,000

For BTC sell pressure is quite low, so we are on bullish run and now we can expect a good rally. I wanna see $60,000 over again.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

 Charts of BTC $ S&P 500 of May-2020 reflect that  Sell in May and go away  is  a Myth.



https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/IFupWJ8G-BTC-and-S-P-How-accurate-is-Sell-in-May-and-go-away/

Even though I "play along" with various calendar assessments of BTC such as months, quarters, years, I start getting a bit irked if too much emphasis is given to assessing bitcoin under these kinds of parameters - even though I surely appreciate that sometimes we need some kind of measuring stick and ability to compare/contrast - otherwise we will be just all over the place without some ground of reference.

By the way, the short term BTC price dynamics can go either way and they are all over the fucking place, and the most reliable of our current BTC price prediction models have four-year cycles contained therein and also longer term assessments that attempt to incorporate exponential price rises based on s-curve adoption... so take the shorter term price dynamics and even attempts to correlate or relate to traditional assets with a decently-sized grain of salt to the extent that those assessments are not adequately accounting for BTC currently credible and valid longer term price prediction models which involve: 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on networking effects and Metcalfe principles.

Similar pattern is repeating, not financial advice!

Hhahahaha

Diptwat SS123 is back... hahahahaha

I thought that you would be out licking your wounds from your last dumbass BTC predictions - so now you are back to tell us what? down before up .. or just down?  or something else?  Good luck with that.

By the way, are you recommending selling or shorting at this point?  Or do you have some other recommendation for us?  try to relate your recommendations, if any, to BTC if your likely desperate lil selfie is able to stay focused for long enough.   

[AlcoHoDL]

Bitcoin underperforming? Huh?

Greedy much?

Personally, I do not refer to the recent "underperforming" assessments as "greedy" (even though there could be some truth in the "greedy" label) instead of "distracted."**..

**The distraction is by shitcoins, to be more precise... which really seems difficult to help "supposed bitcoiner" who has such difficult times focusing on king daddy bitcoin, even after having supposedly been studying this space for as long as me (more than 7 years) while still cannot help his lil selfie in being distracted by shitcoins.. go figure???  can we help dumb in that kind of presentation?

Are they... diversifying?

https://youtu.be/zQ60ehVJYAs?t=1031

[hisslyness]

[edited out]

Actually, i am pretty sure that name calling is MUCH more off-topic than my meeker mentionings of the actual facts in the original cited text, but I digress.

If you are off topic and trying to compare and contrast shitcoins here, do you think that there is some kind of imperative to be nice about telling you to fuck off.  I was trying to be nice (within my abilities to do so), but you continue to persist to want to talk about shitcoins.

I wasn't talking ABOUT any coins, i was saying (in passing) that we are underperforming for 2-2.5mo, which is a statement of fact.
the rest is just your fake rage mixed up with some nonsense.

Under performing? you must be joking... Last time i'd check Bitcoin was 1T market cap. Is the other coins you are talking about 1T market cap or even close to that?

Just because a penny stock goes from 1c to 2c doesn't mean it is out performing stocks in the Dow Jones!...

I guess you don't know the term underperforming.
Going from 70% dominance to 48% is significantly underperfoming. I am pretty sure that "something" gained a few hundred bil in the process and it ain't pennys.
Look at the charts. Yes, it is easier to close your ears and keep saying na-na-na, like some do around here, hence the rage.
On the other hand, if you acknowledge the situation, maybe you can make a prediction as to when it reverses, possibly, which could be soon and better be.
If it continues for, say, 3 more mo, bigger money would start to actively leave and even more if it goes for a year.
Do you think "institutions" bought in because they suddenly become true believers?
They looked at the alpha and at a market cap and decided to spruce their portfolios, but if there is no alpha in relation to alternatives, they are a finicky bunch and will not stay for too long.

You can't be using dominance chart to justify the "under performance" of Bitcoin. I am not buying it!..

You really want me to believe that shitcoins with little to no trading volume or purpose should be weighted against Bitcoin.

95% of the coins i haven't even heard of or know what the fuck they do. Binance Coin? WTF is Binance coin... Really think institution is going to pour billions into Binance Coin? TRON/ADA really?

No, i don't believe institutions just suddenly became true believers, i think they finally realize there is an alternative to having FIAT on their balance sheet.

Institutions don't just buy into a position because it is an alpha, they would have done their home work and research on what they are buying, not just look at a dominance chart and say, fuck it we are out! bitcoin is now 40% compared to all these wonderful shitcoins.

I am looking at the charts, and all i see is rockets/trains and dildos!

EDIT: Number #8: Polkadot, 33Billion MCAP, I think Bill and Warren will be into this one!

[JayJuanGee]

LAST 24 HOURS BITCOIN STARTS AROUND ~$52,400 AND NOW TRADING OVER $57,000

For BTC sell pressure is quite low, so we are on bullish run and now we can expect a good rally. I wanna see $60,000 over again.

Yep.  Quite the scare yesterday that we might be revisiting down before up, but the decent amount of up, currently, does appear to lessen the down before up thesis - unless our current up (to $57,443) just happens to be a fake?  Never know around here, but sure feels good man, at least for the moment.

Bitcoin underperforming? Huh?

Greedy much?

Personally, I do not refer to the recent "underperforming" assessments as "greedy" (even though there could be some truth in the "greedy" label) instead of "distracted."**..

**The distraction is by shitcoins, to be more precise... which really seems difficult to help "supposed bitcoiner" who has such difficult times focusing on king daddy bitcoin, even after having supposedly been studying this space for as long as me (more than 7 years) while still cannot help his lil selfie in being distracted by shitcoins.. go figure???  can we help dumb in that kind of presentation?

Are they... diversifying?

https://youtu.be/zQ60ehVJYAs?t=1031

You are right, AlcoHoDL, diversifying within the same category (in which bitcoin is the obvious way the fuck ahead leader within its category) is likely part of the problem of some of these folks who are considering bitcoin to be "underperforming" because they (sure, not ONLY Biodom) seem to speculate that those various pieces of shit that are trying to copy (and supposedly improve upon) bitcoin in various ways are actually adding any meaningful value, when it should be fairly obvious to anyone who has been studying the space more than a couple of weeks, that the ONLY real value add, in this space, is bitcoin. 

Sure, going back to your "greed" thesis.  You have likely demonstrated another dynamic too in terms of the "greed" factor interfering with the abilities of a decent number of otherwise potentially rational and smart peeps to actually understand and recognize that bitcoin remains the ONLY value add in this particular space (the space that bitcoin occupies.. call it what you will, but bitcoin is the leader by far, hands down). 

Personally, I am NOT against diversification, and I believe that diversification remains a good practice and strategy, but not within the same sector (once you sufficiently understand the sector) - as seems to be part of Saylor's point, even though there does happen to be another truth out there that is also recognized by Saylor in terms of there not being any other asset class/or currency that even comes close to bitcoin in terms of underlying strength of fundamentals.

At the same time, I personally believe that minimum diversification is preferable in terms of at least making sure that personal (individual) cashflow matters are figured out for a few years in the event that bitcoin might have a correction or a flat period for a few years and none of us should be forced into selling our bitcoin (if we can avoid it) at times that are not chosen by us including making sure that we are making any sales (even if some shavings here and there) that are profitable at the time of sales - which means NOT investing above our abilities to make sure that our cashflows are covered, including emergency cashflows (which means they are not exactly expected).

Yes, longer term bitcoiners have already established a profitability cushion, so we have a whole hell of a lot more flexibilities, but shorter term players are not guaranteed profitabilities from the start, and it could take a bit of time to develop (or let play out) the creation of profitability cushions.  So in that sense the newer investor into bitcoin is likely to have more stresses in the earlier stages of his/her investment into bitcoin until decent profitability cushions are established (which are also NOT guaranteed, even though ongoingly probable), so there can be some value in diversifying in the early stages at least in terms of making sure that cashflows are figured out and NOT necessarily going all into bitcoin from the start without reasonably and adequately tailoring to personal circumstances.

[OutOfMemory]

[edited out]

Yeah and there is the extra factor this month of the -  10-12%  diff adjustment falling on May 1

It is a nice boost in earnings for mining farms.

Excellent point, the difficulty adjustment is going to boost this further.

This is going to be an extremely interesting month.

"Sell altcoins in May, buy Bitcoin and don't go away" - LOL.

FTFY 

Inverse H&S completed and confirmed, options expired, bull market resume.
CME Futures settlement on 3rd of May (IIRC). Maybe another dip coming soon?.
How high will the king rise this time? My bet is quite conservative, $65k.

[ErisDiscordia]

Generated BIP39 Mnemonic 24 words.

I wish to store these words on a 2 of 3 paper backup and hide them.
It seemed a simple task.

So scouring through a book for these 24 words and assigning each a 5 digit code based on page number line number and position of word within the line. Then noting these down pencil on paper and hiding them would probably be meaningless to the finder.
I may just use the 24 words plus 1 method for extra security and commit this to pencil and paper in addition to being in my head.

Here, the biggest risk is that if you die or are otherwise incapacitated, nobody will be able to figure out how the fuck your system works...

unless you leave detailed instructions, but then you have the problem of how to secure those. Perfect security just doesn't exist, it's always a balancing act of choosing which risks you want to minimize.

The only way the workers can own the means of production is through public ownership by the government. When the government gets that much power, it never ends well. Plus, central planners can never keep up with the billions of price and markets signals that a free market does which leads to shortages, etc.

Workers owning the means of production directly is a utopian fantasy. How would this work exactly?

Also, what is stopping a group of enterprising individuals from creating a company right now where the workers own it and they directly control the means of production? Would the janitors get the same share as the software developers? What happens when a person moves to another company? What if some people are better at saving their money than others? Wouldn't we naturally return to some people having more than others and eventually the exact same wealth gap that we have now? Would you stop it from happening by making it illegal to save your money or live a frugal life? Would it be illegal to change jobs or would you lose your ownership when you changed jobs? Would a new employee just automatically get the same share as somebody working there for 20 years? What about a person who refuses to work at all. Would they still get a share?

Surely there are some socialists out there with some good ideas that would work as a business. Surely there are some altruistic individuals who would forego their billions and split that up evenly with the janitors and accountants.

If it was a superior way to run a businesses, wouldn't all businesses be run like that already? Why do you need the government to change something if the goal isn't to give the government central authority (i.e. Communism)?

I don't have any answers to all your questions since I am forbidden by sacred discordian law from believing any one ideology, or Belief System (BS) fully in its entirety, at all times.

I just wish people would have a more precise understanding of terms like communism and socialism. Here, it's not that difficult:

Socialism is a political, social, and economic philosophy encompassing a range of economic and social systems characterised by social ownership of the means of production

The nice thing about Wikipedia is, that if you don't know what exactly the means of production are, you can click and find out!

In economics and sociology, the means of production (also called capital goods[1] or productive property) are physical and non-financial inputs used in the production of goods and services with economic value. These include raw materials, facilities, machinery and tools used in the production of goods and services

Great! Now what about communism? This term has been distorted to its utmost after decades of cold war antagonism and is now mostly used as a derogatory term for anyone perceived as a leftist aka. dirty commie. Turns out this one isn't that hard to define, either!

Communism (from Latin communis, 'common, universal')[1][2] is a philosophical, social, political, and economic ideology and movement whose ultimate goal is the establishment of a communist society, namely a socioeconomic order structured upon the ideas of common ownership of the means of production and the absence of social classes, money,[3][4] and the state.[5][6] As such, communism is a specific form of socialism.

You see, in theory, communism was supposed to be the opposite of "centralized government power". But that's what we got, thanks to the bizarre belief of Marxists and Leninists, that after forcibly expropriating the means of production and centralizing them under its own control, the state would peacefully take a bow and cease to exist. We anarchists tried to warn them since the mid 19th century that this wouldn't work but they had to go ahead, fuck it up, and discredit communism forever *shrug*.

Join us next time for another fun, badly needed educational corner wherein we will discuss the ominous term of Fascism and why it has nothing to do with your government telling you to wear mouth-cloths.