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Question: Which price is bitcoin going to reach first? (credits to Jay)
$25K - 55 (36.4%)
$50K - 96 (63.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25368713 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
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May 01, 2021, 05:05:00 PM


I think his third paragraph makes an unfounded assignment and a couple of shaky assumptions but still gives a good general idea.
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May 01, 2021, 05:43:47 PM

B. Maher says that we are full of s-t in conclusion:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaJpYjO136o

, but I think that it is he who is full of it instead.

Dan Held explained it nicely:

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1387783269710655503

Poor deluded man thinks the financial system is real.

An inconvenient truth that no one compares to Bitcoin mining: The fashion apparel industry accounts for 10% of global carbon emissions and 20% of industrial water pollution.

https://www.sustainyourstyle.org/old-environmental-impacts

The clothing attitude of people is truly one of the biggest hypocrisies if one is worried about the environment.
I prefer buying more premium clothing I can keep for years. I wear the same shoes for years.
I only have to replace slippers every year or two because they are basically my work shoes. Even then I buy the more expensive ones I can find.
I mostly wear an expensive leather jacket I bought 7 years ago. I take it to the dry cleaning from time to time and it comes back new.

My girlfriend's attitude is to just constantly buy new shit and donate old clothes to "charity" because it's so cheap and crap quality.
She even moans at me for keeping certain jackets long or wearing them too often.
I'll probably end up chucking her out the door as quick as she dumps clothes if she doesn't stop that shit.


Yeah...I don't mean to gender bash here, but the majority of women I've met in my life are the biggest hypocrites in that regard.

They are the biggest consumers of "fast fashion", chasing passing fashion fads (cough *trends*) year after year, yet also the most vocal about planet "sustainability" and "eco-friendliness".  Roll Eyes

I know some men are just a bad though. Mostly young men.
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May 01, 2021, 05:53:22 PM
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I don't really see that as any kind of new phenomena.  Sure more and more people are becoming aware of bitcoin and figuring out ways to attempt to allow bitcoin to either supplement their other expected sources of retirement income or to replace their other expected sources of retirement income.

Many of us here realize that if you attempt to rush such a retirement or "fuck you" plan, you could well end up screwing up such plan because you get overly excited, you pull the fuck you lever too soon, you fail/refuse to calculate for BTC's volatility or transfer into fiat based assets which actually might not help you in terms of how you treated BTC's volatility, you get distracted into ideas of earning "interest" on your bitcoin and then put too much of your bitcoin at risk, or other ways of insufficiently planning based on personal situations and also reasonable attempting to understand how bitcoin might fit into that by trying to have a decent grasp on how to use such bitcoin to your advantage.

In sum, I don't really consider the contents of such above-linked article as anything really new because the devil is in the details in terms of how bitcoin might be incorporated into a retirement plan, and of course, today we likely will consider the matter of how to incorporate bitcoin into such retirement plan differently as compared with 3-8 years ago, but even with much of what us longer-term bitcoiners perceive to be increases in liquidity, options and adoption, there still seem to be quite a bit of ongoing lackenings of widespread adoption (mainstream) because in some sense retail remains somewhat scared about recent price increases of 5-6x (so they do not understand and they fear getting dumped on- which is a real and legitimate fear), while BIGGER players and institutions are behind the scenes scooping up bitcoins and also playing around with some of the various evolving bitcoin related financial products to attempt to figure out if there are ways that they can profit through the use of such ongoingly developing financial products that are not so much accessible by retail (while retail is increasingly getting scared by hurdles including KYC, AML and other bullshit complications of just trying to get some systems set up for their lil selfies and perhaps their modest DCA'ing or other reasonable tactics that they might perhaps consider employing).
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May 01, 2021, 06:06:30 PM

Poll: "My family".

WO is my family <3
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May 01, 2021, 06:27:18 PM

Yeah...I don't mean to gender bash here, but the majority of women I've met in my life are the biggest hypocrites in that regard.

They are the biggest consumers of "fast fashion", chasing passing fashion fads (cough *trends*) year after year, yet also the most vocal about planet "sustainability" and "eco-friendliness".  Roll Eyes

I know some men are just a bad though. Mostly young men.

You know, my brain's wheels are turning right now with a thought:

"Is an inflationary money policy the driver behind the desire to endlessly consume?"

Really, I never thought about it in this direction. Thinking......
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May 01, 2021, 06:48:11 PM

Yeah...I don't mean to gender bash here, but the majority of women I've met in my life are the biggest hypocrites in that regard.

They are the biggest consumers of "fast fashion", chasing passing fashion fads (cough *trends*) year after year, yet also the most vocal about planet "sustainability" and "eco-friendliness".  Roll Eyes

I know some men are just a bad though. Mostly young men.

You know, my brain's wheels are turning right now with a thought:

"Is an inflationary money policy the driver behind the desire to endlessly consume?"

Really, I never thought about it in this direction. Thinking......

Oh absolutely. Beyond a doubt.

The Fed and the govt want people to spend spend spend those stimmy checks. Not hoard as savings or convert to investments, assets, etc. Consumer spending is the only thing that drives economies of the world.

Just take a look at this chart, and tell me what you see:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
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May 01, 2021, 06:52:08 PM


You know, my brain's wheels are turning right now with a thought:

"Is an inflationary money policy the driver behind the desire to endlessly consume?"

Really, I never thought about it in this direction. Thinking......

They explicitly claim inflation as a method to "stimulate the economy". So yes.

Sound monetary policy is demonized as leading to a "deflationary spiral". Otherwise known as sensible spending.
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May 01, 2021, 06:53:33 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), Torque (2), LFC_Bitcoin (1), Richy_T (1), Kylapoiss (1)

You know, my brain's wheels are turning right now with a thought:

"Is an inflationary money policy the driver behind the desire to endlessly consume?"

Yes.

Our financial system depends on perpetual growth. Since all money is debt-based, we are always creating more of it to service the interest from having borrowed it into existence. If all debts were to be paid off simultaneously, there wouldn't be enough money in the world to actually do it. So we keep creating more. This is monetary inflation, which eventually leads to price inflation unless you monetize more goods, meaning you make more things available for purchase for the newly created money, thereby balancing out supply & demand and preventing price inflation.

We are being driven towards endless consumption in order to perpetuate the status quo. We are always to be two missed paychecks from destitution so we will latch onto any false form of material happiness marketed towards our fears and frustrations.

Remember this the next time some smug douchebag pulls the "muh EnErGy cOnSumpTIon" card against Bitcoin. Deflationary crypto may yet be the biggest boon for the environment. It turns people from consumers into hodlers.

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May 01, 2021, 07:08:36 PM

B. Maher says that we are full of s-t in conclusion:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaJpYjO136o

, but I think that it is he who is full of it instead.

 He might have had some valid points but he lost me when he started with, "I fully understand that our financial system isn't perfect but at least it's real."


 Exactly!  Humans use too much energy - even the ones using the real financial system.

Mechanical/biological POV: boiled down, it's how much of a quasi-monoculture of humans can this planet sustain at various levels of mutual comfort? If we were in the low-mid hundreds of myriads, no problem: have all the tantalium you want - or buffalo, or whatever you can realistically find. Just a matter of price. Oops. Be it the economy or just a kind of behavioral physics, we end up doing hat many other animals - or plants - do when left alone in a place where they "just can": multiply and grow in shapes that often are exponential up to a ceiling, much like an S of sorts. But I digress. There are S-curves that spin more pleasant thought, and this gentlemen.
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May 01, 2021, 08:11:50 PM

#dyor
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#stronghands
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May 01, 2021, 08:22:46 PM
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May 01, 2021, 08:26:04 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (4), JayJuanGee (1)

@Coindesk
JUST IN: #Bitcoin 's biggest upgrade in years, Taproot, has started the activation process. If enough miners signal support before August 11, it will be online in November. @TheBlueMatt @benthecarman @bitentrepreneur
By @AsILayHodling
https://t.co/iqkPFRcA6q
https://twitter.com/coindesk/status/1388588797106036744?s=21



The forums very own achow101 ——->


@achow101
Signaling for the Taproot Speedy Trial has now begun. The first block whose signal actually counts is the next block at height 681408
https://twitter.com/achow101/status/1388586979063967747?s=21



@DocumentingBTC
#Bitcoin  Taproot activation has started!
https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1388589809380335624?s=21



@DocumentingBTC
#Bitcoin  Taproot activation has started!

If 90% of blocks mined within the next difficulty period, signal for the update, (or another period before August 11th) Taproot "locks in" for November this year.
https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1388590450072768516?s=21




Follow Taproot Activation progress here ——->

https://taproot.watch/
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May 01, 2021, 09:02:22 PM
Last edit: May 01, 2021, 09:17:23 PM by Torque

You know, my brain's wheels are turning right now with a thought:

"Is an inflationary money policy the driver behind the desire to endlessly consume?"

Yes.

Our financial system depends on perpetual growth. Since all money is debt-based, we are always creating more of it to service the interest from having borrowed it into existence. If all debts were to be paid off simultaneously, there wouldn't be enough money in the world to actually do it. So we keep creating more. This is monetary inflation, which eventually leads to price inflation unless you monetize more goods, meaning you make more things available for purchase for the newly created money, thereby balancing out supply & demand and preventing price inflation.

We are being driven towards endless consumption in order to perpetuate the status quo. We are always to be two missed paychecks from destitution so we will latch onto any false form of material happiness marketed towards our fears and frustrations.

Remember this the next time some smug douchebag pulls the "muh EnErGy cOnSumpTIon" card against Bitcoin. Deflationary crypto may yet be the biggest boon for the environment. It turns people from consumers into hodlers.

I agree. But if you look at the FRED M2 money velocity chart I posted, you can see that up to 1997, monetary expansion policy actually seemed to buoy the economy even in the face of falling wages (adjusted for inflation, of course.) They decided to make personal credit cheaper and cheaper to fill in the wage gap, so that Average Joes would continue spending into the real economy despite their slowing wage growth and growing personal debt load.

And so continuing to expand the money supply and cheaper credit worked for a while. Until 1997. And then it didn't anymore. You can also see on the chart where consumer spending fell completely off the cliff.

We are now at a point where wages are no longer increasing (to keep up with *real* inflation), mom and pop cannot take on any more personal debt to fill the gap, and thus all consumer spending has fallen to a minimum life support level.

What the Fed doesn't seem to grasp is, all the free stimmy checks or even UBI in the world won't make a lasting turn in consumer spending. Stimmies are just a temporary bump. Only wages going back up relative to *real* inflation will do that. And that just ain't gonna happen.

What the Fed is doing now (sending money directly to consumers) smacks of desperation. It's a joke.
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May 01, 2021, 11:08:49 PM
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May 01, 2021, 11:14:04 PM

You know, my brain's wheels are turning right now with a thought:

"Is an inflationary money policy the driver behind the desire to endlessly consume?"

Yes.

Our financial system depends on perpetual growth. Since all money is debt-based, we are always creating more of it to service the interest from having borrowed it into existence. If all debts were to be paid off simultaneously, there wouldn't be enough money in the world to actually do it. So we keep creating more. This is monetary inflation, which eventually leads to price inflation unless you monetize more goods, meaning you make more things available for purchase for the newly created money, thereby balancing out supply & demand and preventing price inflation.

We are being driven towards endless consumption in order to perpetuate the status quo. We are always to be two missed paychecks from destitution so we will latch onto any false form of material happiness marketed towards our fears and frustrations.

Remember this the next time some smug douchebag pulls the "muh EnErGy cOnSumpTIon" card against Bitcoin. Deflationary crypto may yet be the biggest boon for the environment. It turns people from consumers into hodlers.

<some snip>What the Fed doesn't seem to grasp is, all the free stimmy checks or even UBI in the world won't make a lasting turn in consumer spending. Stimmies are just a temporary bump. Only wages going back up relative to *real* inflation will do that. And that just ain't gonna happen.

What the Fed is doing now (sending money directly to consumers) smacks of desperation. It's a joke.

yes, I agree, but what can they do if, according to Jeff Booth, we are living in a deflationary world?
I read "The price of tomorrow"..it's pretty compelling.
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May 01, 2021, 11:41:47 PM


Yeah...I don't mean to gender bash here, but the majority of women I've met in my life are the biggest hypocrites in that regard.

They are the biggest consumers of "fast fashion", chasing passing fashion fads (cough *trends*) year after year, yet also the most vocal about planet "sustainability" and "eco-friendliness".  Roll Eyes

I know some men are just a bad though. Mostly young men.

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May 01, 2021, 11:55:35 PM
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May 02, 2021, 12:03:18 AM

@Coindesk
JUST IN: #Bitcoin 's biggest upgrade in years, Taproot, has started the activation process. If enough miners signal support before August 11, it will be online in November. @TheBlueMatt @benthecarman @bitentrepreneur
By @AsILayHodling
https://t.co/iqkPFRcA6q
https://twitter.com/coindesk/status/1388588797106036744?s=21



The forums very own achow101 ——->


@achow101
Signaling for the Taproot Speedy Trial has now begun. The first block whose signal actually counts is the next block at height 681408
https://twitter.com/achow101/status/1388586979063967747?s=21



@DocumentingBTC
#Bitcoin  Taproot activation has started!
https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1388589809380335624?s=21



@DocumentingBTC
#Bitcoin  Taproot activation has started!

If 90% of blocks mined within the next difficulty period, signal for the update, (or another period before August 11th) Taproot "locks in" for November this year.
https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1388590450072768516?s=21




Follow Taproot Activation progress here ——->

https://taproot.watch/

I think this will be a fantastic upgrade, but I certainly don't expect it to happen this round. Though I do hope to see at least a little signaling, nothing yet.

On another note, fees back down again.
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May 02, 2021, 12:14:11 AM

Not looking good for Taproot. Is there some sort of downside that the miners are wary of?
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May 02, 2021, 12:49:49 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Not looking good for Taproot. Is there some sort of downside that the miners are wary of?

Not that I know of, but I haven't looked into it in detail. It could be that they don't rock the boat during the bull cycle or perhaps they just want more time to review it all.

Edit: this article explains things a bit further https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-miners-developers-narrow-down-how-taproot-will-be-activated
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