Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

I'm still sticking to my fourth rule of crypto: "never sell everything", so I have some left.

I have some billion "Real Stack Coins" ...

What are all your other rules of crypto?

buy high, sell low? 

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[LoyceV]

I'm still sticking to my fourth rule of crypto: "never sell everything", so I have some left.

What are all your other rules of crypto?

I'm glad you asked
I can't really answer it though Fourth rule just sounds kinda cool.

I've made several related posts:

Even worse: he's advertising a website (in his profile) that asks people for their private keys, and thus goes against the the first rule of crypto.

That's like the first rule of Bitcoin. You break it, you lose it.

As a rule of thumb: if you can do something without a blockchain, you shouldn't use a blockchain.

By now, I'd say these are the first rules of crypto:

• Not your keys, not your coins
• Verify, don't trust
• Be your own bank
• Never sell everything
• In code we trust
• Don't invest more than you're willing to lose (this rule also applies to fiat)
• DYOR
• We are all Satoshi
• HODL

(no idea who's the original creator of most of those rules)

Please add to the list, the order is negotiable.

[Dabs]

Kinda reminds me of "Wizard's First Rule" and the 14 other rules about that book series. People are stupid. hehe.

Although I think that there should be bitcoin specific rules, which are essentially the consensus rules, like "There will never be more than 21 million bitcoins." I guess people just have to understand some of the foundations of how bitcoin and most other crypto work.

[Richy_T]

"Don't chase the market"
"Everyone talks their book"
"Losses are rarely mentioned"
"Gains are boasted often"
"Learn to differentiate between luck and skill"
"Recognize when you're just pure gambling"
"If you're not the predator, you're probably the prey"

[Biodom]

Here are my rules:

1. Always buy to replace btc that you sold paying for things (this wouldn't work in case of a ranch or lake buying, obviously).
2. Spend only fiat or stablecoins (not btc) buying anything else.
3. Never invest more than 20% (an absolute limit) or 10% (typical) on ANY investment (that includes initial investment in btc, but does not mean selling to re-balance).
4. Never re-balance anything automatically.
5. If not DCAing, buy ONLY in a rising or stable market, not in a declining market.
6. Sell alts for 'things' with abandon (hopefully, at spikes). Easy come, easy go.

[Dabs]

"Don't chase the market"
"Everyone talks their book"
"Losses are rarely mentioned"
"Gains are boasted often"
"Learn to differentiate between luck and skill"
"Recognize when you're just pure gambling"
"If you're not the predator, you're probably the prey"

I wouldn't call those "rules" ... the last one is one I hear quite often in the 2nd Amendment environment, together with "Gun Control means using both hands."

The "Not your keys" = that one maybe is a rule. I think a "rule" in the case of crypto or bitcoin would be something that is ... like religiously important or sacred equivalent.

Expanding on the "not your keys" would extrapolate the air-gap or offline or cold storage principles, but there's no need to make additional rules related to that.

Really, there should be just the top 10 most important ones, and everything else derives from those. 10 Commandments of Bitcoin or something. I recall someone already posted something like that before.

*edit*

I found some that are interesting:

https://www.sylvainsaurel.com/the-ten-commandments-of-bitcoin/
https://bitcointencommandments.com/
https://armantheparman.com/the-10-commandments-of-good-bitcoining/

[Sayeds56]

Kinda reminds me of "Wizard's First Rule" and the 14 other rules about that book series. People are stupid. hehe.

Although I think that there should be bitcoin specific rules, which are essentially the consensus rules, like "There will never be more than 21 million bitcoins." I guess people just have to understand some of the foundations of how bitcoin and most other crypto work.

This is how BTC is different and  superior to all form of currencies. we can expect Bitcoin to grow in unexpected ways as new utility is found. Bitcoin owners can expect that its usefulness will only increase over time. In contrast, altcoin owners have substantially more risk of the coin falling into disuse.


https://jimmysong.medium.com/why-bitcoin-is-different-than-other-cryptocurrencies-e16b17d48b94

[BitcoinBunny]

As a straight guy I have to say I'm not into dildos normally.

But green dildos? Yep, I like green dildos.

 

[Biodom]

btc is flying  

[Arriemoller]

Just sold a teeny weeny little bit, so now the price is pretty sure to go up.
Also, it's going to rain all day today and all day tomorrow, Jippie.

Told you so, didn't I.

[Toxic2040]

the Wednesday morning wall report

#dyor

1h


4h

[BitcoinBunny]

Just sold a teeny weeny little bit, so now the price is pretty sure to go up.
Also, it's going to rain all day today and all day tomorrow, Jippie.

Told you so, didn't I.

Stop selling.
No, actually do sell.

Wait, what?   

[Biodom]

What will happen to btc price once they (exchanges) run out? Someone calculated that projected time for that is 122 days or so (it could happen quicker in a case of large buys).

maybe this...check out etc on coinbase pro...$30-50 higher (30-40%) than others, lol.
if i was not busy right now, I would arb it to smithereens.

[Richy_T]

What will happen to btc price once they (exchanges) run out? Someone calculated that projected time for that is 122 days or so

[Kylapoiss]

As a straight guy I have to say I'm not into dildos normally.

But green dildos? Yep, I like green dildos.

 

So you wouldn't be a bunny in late Hefners house?

[OutOfMemory]

What will happen to btc price once they (exchanges) run out? Someone calculated that projected time for that is 122 days or so (it could happen quicker in a case of large buys).

maybe this...check out etc on coinbase pro...$30-50 higher (30-40%) than others, lol.
if i was not busy right now, I would arb it to smithereens.

They probably have to buy expensive coins from miners.
Or even coin auctions, let that sink in...

[Biodom]

What will happen to btc price once they (exchanges) run out? Someone calculated that projected time for that is 122 days or so

people always post this retort bs, but we all know that after summer comes fall, right?
it's not like suddenly, you get winter immediately after the summer, so some trends or patterns exist.

In any case, there is another rule (that is proven to be correct): the longer the trend persists, the more likely it would continue.
The trend of declining btc on exchanges is already continuing since Jan-Feb of 2020 and is only accelerating, so it is quite reasonable to expect eventual btc depletion (on exchanges), maybe not to zero, but to a sufficiently lower number to cause high volatility.

[shahzadafzal]

Just sold a teeny weeny little bit, so now the price is pretty sure to go up.
Also, it's going to rain all day today and all day tomorrow, Jippie.

Told you so, didn't I.

Stop selling.
No, actually do sell.

Wait, what?   

"That's one small hodl for man, one giant leap for lambo."

[Arriemoller]

What will happen to btc price once they (exchanges) run out? Someone calculated that projected time for that is 122 days or so

people always post this retort bs, but we all know that after summer comes fall, right?
it's not like suddenly, you get winter immediately after the summer, so some trends or patterns exist.

In any case, there is another rule (that is proven to be correct): the longer the trend persists, the more likely it would continue.
The trend of declining btc on exchanges is already continuing since Jan-Feb of 2020 and is only accelerating, so it is quite reasonable to expect eventual btc depletion (on exchanges), maybe not to zero, but to a sufficiently lower number to cause high volatility.

Scarcity means higher price, higher price means more people are willing to sell their bitcoins, more bitcoins flow to the exchanges, new price level established, and so on. It's rather basic economics really.

[ivomm]

What will happen to btc price once they (exchanges) run out? Someone calculated that projected time for that is 122 days or so

people always post this retort bs, but we all know that after summer comes fall, right?
it's not like suddenly, you get winter immediately after the summer, so some trends or patterns exist.

In any case, there is another rule (that is proven to be correct): the longer the trend persists, the more likely it would continue.
The trend of declining btc on exchanges is already continuing since Jan-Feb of 2020 and is only accelerating, so it is quite reasonable to expect eventual btc depletion (on exchanges), maybe not to zero, but to a sufficiently lower number to cause high volatility.

Well, this is a deep question! It is related to the liquidity in terms of bitcoins. And the liquidity is related to the role of derivate exchanges and SEC decision about an ETF. In the past the US exchanges had not a good liquidity in both ways - fiat and bitcoins. Because of that, we've seen many exponential pumps like the 66% increase in 2 days in Dec 2017. And after that the opposite - 70% crash, which started a one year bear period. Now, things are much different - there is a good liquidity in terms of fiat. Elon's "test" is a rock solid proof for that. This prevents any crash bigger than 30% to happen. On the other hand, the liquidity in terms of bitcoins is bad and the trend of exchange reserve will make it much worse (which is good for the hodlers of course).

But as we have seen some charts recently showing the negative role of the derivate, options, etc., there are some entities probably in USA which specialize in making profits by shorting. Just like those institutions involved in gamestop stocks shorting. They are the real threat to the price and always put traps hoping for the price to stay endlessly in some narrow range. However "their bills are made without the bartender", as we have a saying in our country. Because of the low liquidity in terms of bitcoins, the price shoots up unexpectedly at some point, liquidating all these shorts. This is the hidden reason, why SEC is against an ETF. At anytime an exponential increase of the price can happen, leaving shorting companies helpless. And they don't have friends to give them bitcoins, nor they can make a call to the chief of bitcoin and say: hey, liqudate all longs and bring us more bitcoins, like those VIP institutions did with the robinhood puppet.

But let's return on the question. My observations using Glassnode is that since the peak of exchange reserve 3.03mil bitcoins on 17 March 2020, the trend is almost as a line downwards to 2.15mil bitcoins currently. This makes 29% decrease for 13.5 months, paired with a 6-7x increase of the median price. If the trend continues, in 2 years there will be almost no bitcoins on the exchanges with a 50x increase of the price. This is just extrapolating of course. In reality derivate exchanges will put multiple traps, but bitcoin will evade them much sooner than the wall street pundits believe. So, good times are coming, that's for sure.