Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[eddie13]

If someone doesn’t get into Bitcoin because they can’t understand decimals or are confused by a few zeros..
Darwinism.. They will stay poor..

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[cAPSLOCK]

Yesterday I did something I have never quite done before.  I want to share it! The tools for seamless bitcoin payments are being built very quickly now.  I think it's going to turn into a bit of a blur soon.  I  bought $100 worth of bitcoin easily and 100% privately without ever touching the base layer and then sold it for USDT, and then bought the bitcoin back again.  It was really just an exercise of proof of concept for me.  I was able to offset the 1% "fee" for the trades be getting lucky to sell high and buy low.  It only took a couple minutes, but here is what I did:

Using Strike I sent $100 of bitcoin to my Coinos.io wallet.  (no fee)
Sent those ~175,000 sats as L-BTC to my Sideswap wallet on my phone. (fee 113 sats which is ~$0.06)
Did a trade out to USDT (Liquid flavor).  (Sideswap charges ~1% I think)
Waited for BTC to drop a little.  Bought back the L-BTC (again 1%)

Now some comments.

Obviously I am KYC/AMLed by Strike.  But after that everything was basically invisible.  In fact all the things I did on the Liquid sidechain are done with Confidential Transactions.  It is not exactly Monero level privacy... but it is pretty damn good.  Even the federation members cannot know what I have done.  I assume Sideswap knows as they are acting as the trading partner.

I personally consider ALL of the transactions I did BITCOIN, though I know some folks would not.  But we are going to need to get used to making various tradeoffs to be able to use Bitcoin in all the ways we want to.  I have watched that Samurai dev froth on Twitter about Bisq adding Liquid and how terrible that is. Ironically he has donated to Haveno because of that and is essentially supporting Monero to shit on Liquid.  Ironic.

I get it.  But I think he is dead wrong.  He either needs to switch to BCH (lol) or even better Monero, or quit bitching.

Here is the lightbulb that went on for me a while back:

Bitcoin is trust minimized.  We have made various compromises to RETAIN the trust minimized nature of BTC.  This allows us the CHOICE (as in freedom) to make other compromises we deem acceptable for various use cases.  Using Strike means I am accepting the KYC/AML.  Using the Liquid sidechain means I am trusting the Liquid federation.  Coinos.io is a web wallet.  I am trusting them as a counterparty briefly when I move out my BITCOIN on the Liquid network.

But some of the voices yelling about how all that is "not bitcoin" etc also have a balance on some exchange.

LOL.

Everything I did above involves less trust arguably than that.  The point is we are seeing the tools being built out to do all kinds of transactions with Bitcoin.  Buying an island?  Base layer.  Buying a computer?  Liquid.  Beer?  Lightning.  Soon the wallets will just seamlessly let you make those decisions.  Imagine... you will be able to set your hotwallet on your phone to ask you warm storage account to top it off as needed.

I have been saying it for a while... And I know it makes the Bcash folks froth a little... but Blockstream is onto something with Liquid.

[cAPSLOCK]

Unconfirmed transactions under 20k just now. A fair decrease compared to 1-2 weeks back.

https://mempool.space/

0.31c to get in next block

Edit: blink and you missed it though.

Actually, unconfirmed transactions are at their lowest since 8th January. Don't know if this is good or bad.

In general, the fee sizes are disgusting really.

Sooooo... what do you propose is the solution to this issue?

Blockchain does not scale the way you seem to want it to.

[Toxic2040]

the Friday morning wall report

#dyor

1h



4h



D

#stronghands

[cAPSLOCK]

You bragging eh?
We will only get 17° on Sunday, and 5° at night.
And it's still raining by the way.
Yeah, we have April weather in May, I was hoping global warming would make it go the other way.

Nope.
We only got the downsides from GW, local thunderstorms, stronger winds and dryness.
BUT science says we are after the end of a warming cycle of the sun and global warming will likely be slowing down at least over the next 5 years.
Means more evenly distributed rain, but less windy? hmmm - not that much better anyway...

BTC recovering, time for $58k - $60k again...
#NFA

Yeah, that was pretty much predicted at least twenty years ago. The term 'global warming' was largely replaced by "climate change"* exactly because the predicted effects were that weather extremities would become more commonplace. Not everywhere will experience warmer temperatures.

So over twenty years ago, northern Europe was predicted to experience hotter drier summers, milder wetter winters and more frequent storms, for example. Which is exactly what's happening. We just had one of the driest and coldest Aprils on record, followed by the wettest first week of May on record.

[*please, let's not have another tiresome debate about whether climate change exists and/or why - that one's been done to death]

Just wondering, when btc finally breaks $70k and onwards, whether it will carry the alts with it? Or will it get the cane out of the cupboard and give them a damned good thrashing?

This is a really interesting question to me currently.  And I have almost no alts aside from monero... Decent bag of that but otherwise the alts I have are in the souvineer category...  I even have a few ETH... talk about a shitcoin.  But I guess my XMR interest feeds my alts interest.

I keep hearing people talk about "where we are in this cycle" and if it is "alt-season" or not etc.  And I have watched markets long enough to know that pretty much ALWAYS when the herd is saying things like that the end up surprised by what actually happens.  And it does not have to be SUPER different.  It can just be a little bit different this time and still leave the herd stunned.

I think some of the differences this time are:

- Institutional interest is now well underway, though it is just at the beginning
- Nations are on the horizon
- Layer 2 and sidechains exist.  They really did not last time.  We have pressure release plumbing we did not have before.

I have to admit I am surprised a little that the same damn narratives are working "The next bitcoin!", "The bitcoin killer", "MySpace", and so on.  But I should not be surprised. I expected it.  Chances are decent this is not the last time either.

But Bitcoin is being perceived by institutions correctly as the gold standard crypto.  But Joe Public sees it as expensive and wants DOGE to flip it.

So I think alts will at FIRST act like a pressure valve.  Trade your BTC to litecoin first if you want to use it to buy something.  But as BITCOIN network infrastructure starts actually being used, then that use case for alts dries up completely.  That is going to eliminate the LTC/BCH use cases entirely.

ETH will rise (perhaps a lot) because it is still the Smart Contract/Token platform.  But over time people will realize that Bitcoin can do ALL THAT on sidechains without crowding up the base layer with cryptokitties.  Boom use case destroyed.

The question is how long till the people BUILDING the second order use cases (banks, merchants) realize that the tools they will want to interact with are things like Strike rather than things like ETH?

Oh, and I can only think of a single ALT who's use case is only getting stronger and very little threat is posed by Bitcoin.  YET.  But it too might fall to side chains that inherit all it's functionality.  We are already on the way.  That alt could keep running during this bull and longer though, IMHO.  I will not name it, but it's ticker is WHM.  No not really.

[Phil_S]

No matter what, "Stacking Sats" is genius marketing.

[cAPSLOCK]

anything too nerdy, like Finneys etc., wouldn't cut it in my dream.

The next 1st world problem we're going to have is adding a few decimal places on-chain. Hopefully direly needed soon 

Finney was already attempted, ... I don't think it really got popular. Sats is universally accepted as the smallest unit, currently 0.0000 0001 BTC. In the future, it would mean the 8th digit after the decimal.

Adding more decimals, I don't know how that would technically work on-chain and if the rest of the world is going to follow. It's sort of used internally by some exchanges and gaming / gambling websites, and then rounding them.

If you really really need more decimals, there is the unpopular option of simply using a different coin or token, or work with off-chain solutions, whether that's layer 2 or even centralized services.

Banks are going to do this, maybe... then we'll see some "salami slicing" happening where no one really sees what's going on and someone has accumulated all the sats or below 1 sat unseen.

I feel it is annoying we are having so much trouble settling on how we denominate Bitcoin.  But I think it will be 100% organic.  Some wallet(s), or something will finally have enough success that people start just talking about and thinking in SATS or whatever ends up being the measure.

I gotta say though...  Satoshi was such a freaking genius.  no way he could have been so lucky.  8 decimal places, though it presents a somwhat awkward hurdle (Adam Back is right 6 decimal places are easier to grok).  But it firmly plants a very natural maximum bitcoin cap EXACTLY between the gold market cap (550k BTC), and global broad fiat (5MM Btc) with a satoshi being equal to somewhere between a penny and a dime USD.

It is pretty much perfect.

[Richy_T]

Myself, I can live with plain BTC, but mBTC is easier on the eyes. With the full unit, miscounting zeros can have serious consequences. Sats could be almost OK in a similar way as (but worse than) plain BTC, but we would still have the "too many zeros" problem, just on the other side of the decimal point. Of course agreeing with @Dabs that all significant digits are, well, significant - regardless of where the decimal point is placed.

However, this is about personal preference. I was talking about marketing, after @cAPSLOCK's remark. In other words, I am thinking about the 'Corn for Dummies' playbook. I still feel mBTC, but with a fancy name, could be the best choice. Like 1 dragon = over 50 bucks! Wow, one dragon is now worth 100$! Wow, 2000$!! I remember the dragons I bought at 84 bucks! And many would still be able to afford one or more "full"  "dragons" - or whatever the fancy name is: anything too nerdy, like Finneys etc., wouldn't cut it in my dream.

The next 1st world problem we're going to have is adding a few decimal places on-chain. Hopefully direly needed soon  

Problem there is with a bit of luck, we'll be leaving mBTC behind as a usable unit before too long. It'll be on to µBTC before we know it. I was fond of Millies and Mikes but that never caught on. I'm glad that "bitcent" never gained traction though.

[Dabs]

It's interesting how it all turned out:

What are fractions of dollars? Cents!
What are fractions of some-metric-unit like meter? Centimeters! Millimeters! and Kilometers!
What are fractions of pounds? Ounces!
What are fractions of coin? Sats!

[Phil_S]

I have good feeling about this attack on 58000.

[cAPSLOCK]

The next 1st world problem we're going to have is adding a few decimal places on-chain. Hopefully direly needed soon  

Seems to me that a satoshi can be equal to anything between 1 and 10 cents USD currently and we would find it generally useful.  Especially since the lightning network ALREADY handles amounts to 1/1000 of a single sat.  Then, even with 10 cent satoshis we would be able to transact at the granularity of $0.0001.

1 cent sats puts us at Gold market cap, and 10 cent satoshis match us to the worlds broad fiat money.

We may never need to divide further depending on how the network evolves to be used.

[Dabs]

ETH will rise (perhaps a lot) because it is still the Smart Contract/Token platform.  But over time people will realize that Bitcoin can do ALL THAT on sidechains without crowding up the base layer with cryptokitties.  Boom use case destroyed.

ETH is going to 10k, then 20k. It will stick around because they won't let it die and some institutions are buying them already. Plus it has the wierd (if it's considered odd) thing that it uses 18 decimal digits after the point. The coin is fundamentally different and it isn't a fork of BTC, but it does use a blockchain.

If one can get some sort of UniSwap equivalent to run on top of Bitcoin, then ... ETH is going to go away.

[Paashaas]

RSK is growing nicely and will eat ETH lunch sooner ore later. Lightning will eat all those shitcoins but that will be a thing next bull market.

[FIFA worldcup]

 

[Paashaas]

 

Just wait until global economy recovers more after Covid, the price will go even higher.

[Paashaas]

[UmerIdrees]

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Cameron Winklevoss
@cameron
People who don't invest in #Bitcoin  should be prepared to lose all of their money due inflation. All central bankers know this. Few understand this.
https://t.co/TLQi4eXToV
https://twitter.com/cameron/status/1390737891974778881?s=21

[Sayeds56]

It's interesting how it all turned out:

What are fractions of dollars? Cents!
What are fractions of some-metric-unit like meter? Centimeters! Millimeters! and Kilometers!
What are fractions of pounds? Ounces!
What are fractions of coin? Sats!

If I am understanding your math correctly then BTC price should be 1 Million $ and 1 sats  equal to 1 cent.

[El duderino_]