Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Raja_MBZ]

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[gallianooo]

Hmmmm goat and Bitcoin  .... Bullish or f***ing goat dip incoming  

[Biodom]

I am calling my snake (and a virtual one at that) Zuck...seriously, who gives a f-k?
Can't he keep this to himself? TMI

[shahzadafzal]

Who let the goats out?

[BitcoinBunny]

Bullish. Or should that be buck-ish?

[d_eddie]

I am calling my snake (and a virtual one at that) Zuck...seriously, who gives a f-k?
Can't he keep this to himself? TMI

Maybe they told him to keep his post average up, or he'll be banned from Facebook?

[dakiller322]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1EEypAVgAMasFX?format=jpg&name=900x900

Trying to jump on the Elon edgy cool kids bandwagon of subtly promoting crypto, but posting the lamest PC / SEC friendly thing imaginable?

"Hey guy's, I'm a super rich tech guy and down with the latest too you know."

(or am I reading into it too much)

[d_eddie]

OK, enough banter for now. Let's talk some business.

The sentiment is that badger is coiling, ready to jump at that delicious hive that looks full of honey up that tree.

I have a fixation with "macro" numbers right now: questions such as the following.

1. "Could 1b USDT 'fix' the daily RSI?"
2. "Over how many days should this money be spread upon?"
3. "How many coins would someone have to sell to push the price down to 50k?".

The reason for this fixation is that I think these instadumps are just whales maneuvering. They want to sweep the leveraged longs so they profit moar with the impending leg up. I'm thinking of a smallish leg, not a 2x. Something around 70k.

My point of view at the moment is all qualitative feeling: there's no serious analysis behind it. Some guy whose analysis I trust said it looks to be floating upwards, but there won't be a real breakout as long as the daily RSI doesn't break out of a downward channel entered in January. Some other guy says it's too expensive and/or risky for any rational actor to bring the price below ~49k: Saylors etc. would swallow the corn in one or two bites.

These "serious" bits of analysis are more quantitative and look better than my qualitative SOMA ramblings. So a few approx numbers from our resident wizards could reinforce my theory or make me throw it away. I know the questions aren't easy, or maybe even interesting enough, but the WO gathers some of the smartest OGs. So - any takers?

[Biodom]

If any of you are not in US and some other countries (OK for EU), and can invest 200K euro (for 2000TH), consider this:
https://stokr.io/blockstream-mining/pitch
Nice graphs are presented, but there is a catch-you only get ALL your mined btc in 3 years.
It does not seem too many takers 6 days from conclusion.
I guess getting in all at the end is a bit weird.

[d_eddie]

If any of you are not in US and some other countries (OK for EU), and can invest 200K euro (for 2000TH), consider this:
https://stokr.io/blockstream-mining/pitch
Nice graphs are presented, but there is a catch-you only get ALL your mined btc in 3 years.
It does not seem too many takers 6 days from conclusion.
I guess getting in all at the end is a bit weird.

Minimum 200k, and qualified investor status.

If they really wanted to involve more people, they'd lower the minimum stake significantly. 200k locked for 3 years doesn't sound a super exciting prospect. Insurance for the winter, possibly? At 200k a pop it's still not attractive as a lambo with the customary complement.

[d_eddie]

1. "Could 1b USDT 'fix' the daily RSI?"
2. "Over how many days should this money be spread upon?"
3. "How many coins would someone have to sell to push the price down to 50k?".

My trusted analyst qualitatively hinted that I have too much focus on the short term.
Falling for FOMO am I? Where Lambo? Sh**, I should have bought doge... 

[Biodom]

If any of you are not in US and some other countries (OK for EU), and can invest 200K euro (for 2000TH), consider this:
https://stokr.io/blockstream-mining/pitch
Nice graphs are presented, but there is a catch-you only get ALL your mined btc in 3 years.
It does not seem too many takers 6 days from conclusion.
I guess getting in all at the end is a bit weird.

Minimum 200k, and qualified investor status.

If they really wanted to involve more people, they'd lower the minimum stake significantly. 200k locked for 3 years doesn't sound a super exciting prospect. Insurance for the winter, possibly? At 200k a pop it's still not attractive as a lambo with the customary complement.

Well, 2000Th is roughly 20 S19, which go for $12-15K a pop on ebay (there are NONE for sale by the manufacturer until...who knows when [unclear]) which is pretty close to 200000 euro. Yep, they could have made it a bit more 'bargainy' and it shows.

[Biodom]

one thing occurred to me..with all those people negging on the "use of energy"...it has to be that use of energy that might be important to put value into btc (and Saylor often talks about it).

If NOTHING was used, I have difficulty understanding the "true" value claimed to be created.
It becomes more like a ethereal game of sorts, but even gamers understand that their games consume quite a bit of energy.

There has to be some math behind the fact that you are typically using energy to create anything of value.
A connection between energy and information, perhaps?
Like here:
https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/38368/how-is-there-a-connection-between-energy-and-information

[franky1]

blockstream 2000th
=0.01btc a day for 14days=0.14btc
difficulty adjustment 5%=5% less per fortnight

daily                 fortnightly
0.01000000   0.14000000
0.00950000   0.13300000
0.00902500   0.12635000
0.00857375   0.12003250
0.00814506   0.11403088
0.00773781   0.10832933
0.00735092   0.10291287
0.00698337   0.09776722
0.00663420   0.09287886
0.00630249   0.08823492
0.00598737   0.08382317
0.00568800   0.07963201
0.00540360   0.07565041
0.00513342   0.07186789
0.00487675   0.06827450
0.00463291   0.06486077
0.00440127   0.06161773
0.00418120   0.05853685
total after 9month   1.68779991
total after 36month    2.73029601

so they want you to pay them 3.448btc now ($200k at~$57k/btc)
to receive 2.73btc in 3 years

anyone see the problem 3.448 in...2.73out

[Richy_T]

one thing occurred to me..with all those people negging on the "use of energy"...it has to be that use of energy that might be important to put value into btc (and Saylor often talks about it).

If NOTHING was used, I have difficulty understanding the "true" value claimed to be created.
It becomes more like a ethereal game of sorts, but even gamers understand that their games consume quite a bit of energy.

There has to be some math behind the fact that you are typically using energy to create anything of value.
A connection between energy and information, perhaps?
Like here:
https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/38368/how-is-there-a-connection-between-energy-and-information

That sounds a little like it's swinging towards the labor theory of value which has been completely debunked for a long time. Not that I think that's what you're aiming for but be careful.

The simple truth is that something of value is being provided and that justifies the energy used. Could it be done another way with less energy? Well, (ignoring that the block reward is still quite high which may actually be quite important), I would say no. The point is that you have to put something in to make sure you have skin in the game and to keep everyone honest. I really don't see proof of stake working out.

One thing I will put in is that the size of a block is independent from the power put into hashing it. So if one wanted to be eco friendly, it would not be hard to increase the transactions per Watt. I leave how to your imagination


That makes me think, was the Blockstream hit piece above created by big blockers? I'm no fan of Blockstream but don't think such tactics would very honorable. Plus it sets a bad precedent wrt the energy usage argument.

so they want you to pay them 3.448btc now ($200k)
to receive 2.73btc in 3 years

Hah, I'm sure something probably got lost in the translation. Though I definitely don't have a good opinion on Blockstream's math capabilities. This smells more to me like the VC money is running out.

[Richy_T]

One interesting thing to consider in the rise of the alts is that many smaller coins have been skating by on being too small to be worth attacking. Things could get interesting if someone decides to take a competitor down a peg or two. Doge and Litecoin are neck-and-neck on scrypt right now and I assume they are the two largest (?)

[Biodom]

blockstream 2000th
=0.01btc a day for 14days=0.14btc
difficulty adjustment 5%=5% less per fortnight

daily                 fortnightly
0.01000000   0.14000000
0.00950000   0.13300000
0.00902500   0.12635000
0.00857375   0.12003250
0.00814506   0.11403088
0.00773781   0.10832933
0.00735092   0.10291287
0.00698337   0.09776722
0.00663420   0.09287886
0.00630249   0.08823492
0.00598737   0.08382317
0.00568800   0.07963201
0.00540360   0.07565041
0.00513342   0.07186789
0.00487675   0.06827450
0.00463291   0.06486077
0.00440127   0.06161773
0.00418120   0.05853685
total after 9month   1.68779991
total after 36month    2.73029601

so they want you to pay them 3.448btc now ($200k at~$57k/btc)
to receive 2.73btc in 3 years

anyone see the problem 3.448 in...2.73out

well, it is not my fundraise, so I am just a poster, but 5% adjustment per period is questionable going forward.
In fact, there were similar calculations pooh-pooing buying of miners (s17, t17) before and immediately after the last halving.
They paid off spectacularly, even in btc.
Plus, it is aimed at those with euro, not btc. Mining smoothes out the return ( you are not buying a lump sum of btc at the current price).
They just have a price a bit too high, we both agree on this. About 20% less would have been prudent.

[franky1]

One thing I will put in is that the size of a block is independent from the power put into hashing it. So if one wanted to be eco friendly, it would not be hard to increase the transactions per Watt. I leave how to your imagination

any household node.. even a raspberry Pi can process block transaction data. no issue
even the devs have said 4mb of data is not an issue for he network

asic miners do not process transactions.
block size is NOT dependant on miners
whether a block is empty or has 20 terrabytes of data per block.
the hash that is sent to an asic is the same length every time

an asic only touches a hash. not the block data
it does not cost miners more to process more transactions

hashrate has no correlation or impact on transaction count limit
transaction count has no correlation/impact on hashrate

[xhomerx10]

blockstream 2000th
=0.01btc a day for 14days=0.14btc
difficulty adjustment 5%=5% less per fortnight

daily                 fortnightly
0.01000000   0.14000000
0.00950000   0.13300000
0.00902500   0.12635000
0.00857375   0.12003250
0.00814506   0.11403088
0.00773781   0.10832933
0.00735092   0.10291287
0.00698337   0.09776722
0.00663420   0.09287886
0.00630249   0.08823492
0.00598737   0.08382317
0.00568800   0.07963201
0.00540360   0.07565041
0.00513342   0.07186789
0.00487675   0.06827450
0.00463291   0.06486077
0.00440127   0.06161773
0.00418120   0.05853685
total after 9month   1.68779991
total after 36month    2.73029601

so they want you to pay them 3.448btc now ($200k at~$57k/btc)
to receive 2.73btc in 3 years

anyone see the problem 3.448 in...2.73out

 $200k now for $2.73 mill in 3 years seems pretty sweet.  Of course, you could just buy the $200k worth of bitcoin now and wait; forego the mining, electricity cost and pain in the ass. 
 

[franky1]

..
=0.01btc a day for 14days=0.14btc
difficulty adjustment 5%=5% less per fortnight
...
total after 36month    2.73029601

so they want you to pay them 3.448btc now ($200k at~$57k/btc)
to receive 2.73btc in 3 years

anyone see the problem 3.448 in...2.73out

but 5% adjustment per period is questionable going forward.
In fact, there were similar calculations pooh-pooing buying of miners (s17, t17) before and immediately after the last halving.
They paid off spectacularly, even in btc.
Plus, it is aimed at those with euro, not btc. Mining smoothes out the return ( you are not buying a lump sum of btc at the current price).
They just have a price a bit too high, we both agree on this. About 20% less would have been prudent.

in the last 6 months. there have been a few difficutly adjustments exceeding 10%. so 5% was quite fair.

i also have looked into some asic studies of this month.
such as slush pool 'active workers' have a 25% using s19 and 75% using s9..so there is still alot of hardware upgrading to do yet

oh and the pitch is not about euros
Dr.Back"If you hold Bitcoin or your business relies on it, you have an incentive to directly participate in mining"

seems he is preaching to those that already have coin.. not euros

but if you only hold euros.
and you done some maths and worked out you can get 2.73btc but only if you hand in a lump sum now. and wait 3 years..
or
buy up 3.448 now. .. no delay. no risk of loss no risk of company liquidating no risk of 'we been hacked'
which would you choose

$200k now...3.448btc now no delay
$200k now... 2.73btc later. maybe with many if's